• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 조합

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Fixation characteristics of CCA and CCFZ in Japanese Red Pine, Japanese Larch, and Ezo Spruce Sapwood (소나무, 낙엽송, 북양가문비나무 변재부에서 CCA와 CCFZ의 정착특성)

  • Kim, Gyu-Hyeok;Kim, Hyung-Jun;Kim, Jae-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.52-59
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    • 2001
  • The fixation characteristics of CCA and CCFZ in Japanese red pine, Japanese larch, and ezo spruce sapwood were compared at various temperatures and fixation conditions (drying and nondrying fixation). Fixation was monitored by the rates of reduction of hexavalent chromium to trivalent one, and optimal fixation time was estimated based on the results. The rate of fixation was highly temperature dependent, and the fixation rate of treated wood conditioned under nondrying conditions was much more faster than that under drying conditions, especially when the moisture content of treated wood was below fiber saturation point. Preservative types affected fixation; CCA-Type B had the highest fixation rate, followed by CCA-Type C and then CCFZ. The differences in fixation rates of preservative components were also observed among wood species; Japanese red pine fixed the fastest, followed by Japanese larch and then ezo spruce. Time required to complete fixation according to the fixation temperature could be predicted successfully using the regression equations between the temperatures and fixation time, regardless of conditioning methods, preservative types, and wood species.

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Finite Element Analysis of Large Deformation of Fiber Metal Laminates Under Bending for Stress-Strain Prediction (굽힘하중을 받는 섬유 금속 적층판의 응력-변형률 예측을 위한 대변형 유한요소해석)

  • Yeom, Kyung Mi;Lee, Jongsoo
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.39 no.10
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    • pp.963-970
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    • 2015
  • Laminate structures are used in the automobile, aerospace, and display industries. The advantages of fiber metal laminates are well known. Fiber metal laminates are useful for reducing the weight and improving impact resistance . However, currently, the mechanical properties of fiber metal laminates are not derived. In this paper, we use thickness as a factor for comparing the properties of laminates of various thickness combinations. The properties fiber metal laminates are analyzed using design of experiments. In addition, the finite element method is used to analyze elastic and plastic strains of fiber metal laminates and aluminum plates. The final goal of this paper is to find a suitable finite element model of fiber metal laminates under bending.

Parameter Calibrations of a Daily Rainfall-Runoff Model Using Global Optimization Methods (전역최적화 기법을 이용한 강우-유출모형의 매개변수 자동보정)

  • Kang, Min-Goo;Park, Seung-Woo;Im, Sang-Jun;Kim, Hyun-Jun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.541-552
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    • 2002
  • Two global optimization methods, the SCE-UA method and the Annealing-Simplex(A-S) method for calibrating a daily rainfall-runoff model, a Tank model, was compared with that of the Downhill Simplex method. In synthetic data study, 100% success rates for all objective functions were obtained from the A-S method, and the SCE-UA method was also consistently able to obtain good estimates. The Downhill Simplex method was converged to the true values only when the initial guess was close to the true values. In the historical data study, the A-S method and the SCE-UA method showed consistently good results regardless of objective function. An objective function was developed, which puts more weight on the low flows.

Development of Test Method for Simple Shear and Prediction of Hardening Behavior Considering the Bauschinger Effect (단순전단 시험법 구축 및 바우싱거효과를 고려한 경화거동 예측)

  • Kim, Dongwook;Bang, Sungsik;Kim, Minsoo;Lee, Hyungyil;Kim, Naksoo
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.37 no.10
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    • pp.1239-1249
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    • 2013
  • In this study we establish a process to predict hardening behavior considering the Bauschinger effect for zircaloy-4 sheets. When a metal is compressed after tension in forming, the yield strength decreases. For this reason, the Bauschinger effect should be considered in FE simulations of spring-back. We suggested a suitable specimen size and a method for determining the optimum tightening torque for simple shear tests. Shear stress-strain curves are obtained for five materials. We developed a method to convert the shear load-displacement curve to the effective stress-strain curve with FEA. We simulated the simple shear forward/reverse test using the combined isotropic/kinematic hardening model. We also investigated the change of the load-displacement curve by varying the hardening coefficients. We determined the hardening coefficients so that they follow the hardening behavior of zircaloy-4 in experiments.

Numerical Study of Chemical Reaction for Liquid Rocket Propellant Using Equilibrium Constant (평형상수를 이용한 액체로켓 추진제의 화학반응 수치연구)

  • Jang, Yo Han;Lee, Kyun Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.333-342
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    • 2016
  • Liquid rocket propulsion is a system that produces required thrust for satellites and space launch vehicles by using chemical reactions of a liquid fuel and a liquid oxidizer. Monomethylhydrazine/dinitrogen tetroxide, liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen and RP-1/liquid oxygen are typical combinations of liquid propellants commonly used for the liquid rocket propulsion system. The objective of the present study is to investigate useful design and performance data of liquid rocket engine by conducting a numerical analysis of thermochemical reactions of liquid rocket propellants. For this, final products and chemical compositions of three liquid propellant combinations are calculated using equilibrium constants of major elementary equilibrium reactions when reactants remain in chemical equilibrium state after combustion process. In addition, flame temperature and specific impulse are estimated.

A Geotechnical Parameter Estimation of Underground Structures in Elasto -plastic Condition (지하공간 건설시 탄.소성 모델에 의한 지반계수 추정)

  • Lee, In-Mo;Kim, Dong-Hyeon;Lee, U-Jin
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.85-94
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    • 1997
  • The design and construction of underground structures contain many substantial mincer dainties. A reasonable estimation of geotechnical parameters is of paramount importance and must be one of the most difficult tasks in designing and constructing underground structures. If the plastic zone exists by tunnel excavation, the ground response may also be dependent on the yield criterion mainly composed of strength parameters. In order to estimate unknown model parameters from the in-situ measurements as well as prior estimates for designing tunnels which have plastic zones, the Extended Bayesian Method(EBM) is adopted : an elasto-plastic finite element program is linked to the EBM as a mathematical model to predict the ground response. Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion is used to represent the plastic behavior. A hypothetical underground site, where the ground behaves elasto-plastically, is adopted to demonstrate the validity of the proposed feedback system.

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High Altitude Simulating Test Facility Design Using Vacuum Pump System (진공펌프 시스템을 이용한 고도모의 시험장치 설계)

  • Hong, Yun Ky;Lee, Jung Min;Na, Jae Jung;Hyun, Dong Ki;Kim, Kyeong Su;Park, Sang Hun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.1160-1164
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    • 2017
  • In this research, a high altitude simulating test facility is designed using vacuum pump system composed of roots pumps and screw pumps. Air flow rate and chamber pressure are 1 kg/s and 2500 Pa, respectively. To design the test facility, experimental tests using certain pump combinations are performed for air injection of the order of hundreds of g/s. From the tests, it is found that 11 roots pumps and 33 screw pumps are required for the considered test facility. Test results are compared with theoretically estimated values. However, intake capacity theoretically estimated is found to be 20 percent larger than test results. This is thought because of higher pressure difference of roots pump for test conditions. Therefore, if more screw pumps are added for the considered pump system, it would be possible to lower the vacuum level of test chamber.

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Joint penalization of components and predictors in mixture of regressions (혼합회귀모형에서 콤포넌트 및 설명변수에 대한 벌점함수의 적용)

  • Park, Chongsun;Mo, Eun Bi
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.199-211
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    • 2019
  • This paper is concerned with issues in the finite mixture of regression modeling as well as the simultaneous selection of the number of mixing components and relevant predictors. We propose a penalized likelihood method for both mixture components and regression coefficients that enable the simultaneous identification of significant variables and the determination of important mixture components in mixture of regression models. To avoid over-fitting and bias problems, we applied smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalties on the logarithm of component probabilities suggested by Huang et al. (Statistical Sinica, 27, 147-169, 2013) as well as several well-known penalty functions for coefficients in regression models. Simulation studies reveal that our method is satisfactory with well-known penalties such as SCAD, MCP, and adaptive lasso.

Forecasting Korean CPI Inflation (우리나라 소비자물가상승률 예측)

  • Kang, Kyu Ho;Kim, Jungsung;Shin, Serim
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.1-42
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    • 2021
  • The outlook for Korea's consumer price inflation rate has a profound impact not only on the Bank of Korea's operation of the inflation target system but also on the overall economy, including the bond market and private consumption and investment. This study presents the prediction results of consumer price inflation in Korea for the next three years. To this end, first, model selection is performed based on the out-of-sample predictive power of autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, AR models, small-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models, and large-scale VAR models. Since there are many potential predictors of inflation, a Bayesian variable selection technique was introduced for 12 macro variables, and a precise tuning process was performed to improve predictive power. In the case of the VAR model, the Minnesota prior distribution was applied to solve the dimensional curse problem. Looking at the results of long-term and short-term out-of-sample predictions for the last five years, the ADL model was generally superior to other competing models in both point and distribution prediction. As a result of forecasting through the combination of predictions from the above models, the inflation rate is expected to maintain the current level of around 2% until the second half of 2022, and is expected to drop to around 1% from the first half of 2023.

Analysis by Defensive Process Prerequisite and Offensive Cause of Action on the Merits of Lawsuit Cases in Urban and Housing Redevelopment - Based on Affirm-Rate and Staircase Matrix Tables - (도시정비사건 소송의 본안전항변사유와 본안쟁점사항에 관한 분석 - 인용률 및 행렬표식 분석기법을 활용한 -)

  • Kim, Yohan;Jung, Boseon;Lee, Sangyoub
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.104-114
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    • 2019
  • This study explored to analyze the winning determinants of the lawsuit cases on the urban and housing redevelopment project based on jurimetric methods. Based on affirm-rate and staircase matrix tables, 441 lawsuit judgments are analyzed. Research findings in affirm-rate analysis indicate that past legal relation, no own defect of accreditation, no ownership or association member status, lapse of period of litigation, and no legal interest are identified as higher rate in order for the reason for plea on the merit. And so are defect on calculation of consent rate, defect in relation with written consent, approval before zoning designation, defect in relation with general meeting, and defect on zoning designation for the issue on the merit. It is noteworthy from the staircase matrix table analysis that the criteria for affecting the lawsuit outcome is determined based on key forecasting variables such as past legal relation and no ownership or association member status. This study intends to provide the implication that the unnecessary disputes can be reduced in the urban and housing redevelopment project by the implementation of jurimetric quantitative analysis methodology from the perspective of empirical law.