• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 모형

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Numerical analysis of morphological changes by opening gates of Sejong Weir (보 개방에 의한 하도의 지형변화 과정 수치모의 분석(세종보를 중심으로))

  • Jang, Chang-Lae;Baek, Tae Hyo;Kang, Taeun;Ock, Giyoung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.8
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    • pp.629-641
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    • 2021
  • In this study, a two-dimensional numerical model (Nays2DH) was applied to analyze the process of morphological changes in the river channel bed depending on the changes in the amount of flooding after fully opening the Sejong weir, which was constructed upstream of the Geum River. For this, numerical simulations were performed by assuming the flow conditions, such as a non-uniform flow (NF), unsteady flows (single flood event, SF), and a continuous flood event (CF). Here, in the cases of the SF and CF, the normalized hydrograph was calculated from real flood events, and then the hydrograph was reconfigured by the peak flow discharge according to the scenario, and then it was employed as the flow discharge at the upstream boundary condition. In this study, to quantitatively evaluate the morphological changes, we analyzed the time changes in the bed deformation the bed relief index (BRI), and we compared the aerial photographs of the study area and the numerical simulation results. As simulation results of the NF, when the steady flow discharge increases, the ratio of lower width to depth decreases and the speed of bar migration increases. The BRI initially increases, but the amount of change decreased with time. In addition, when the steady flow discharge increases, the BRI increased. In the case of SF, the speed of bar migration decreased with the change of the flow discharge. In terms of the morphological response to the peak flood discharge, the time lag also indicated. In other words, in the SF, the change of channel bed indicates a phase lag with respect to the hydraulic condition. In the result of numerical simulation of CF, the speed of bar migration depending on the peak flood discharges decreased exponentially despite the repeated flood occurrences. In addition, as in the result of SF, the phase lag indicated, and the speed of bar migration decreased exponentially. The BRI increased with time changes, but the rate of increase in the BRI was modest despite the continuous peak flooding. Through this study, the morphological changes based on the hydrological characteristics of the river were analyzed numerically, and the methodology suggested that a quantitative prediction for the river bed change according to the flow characteristic can be applied to the field.

Analysis of Service Factors on the Management Performance of Korea Railroad Corporation - Based on the railroad statistical yearbook data - (한국철도공사 경영성과에 미치는 서비스 요인분석 -철도통계연보 데이터를 대상으로-)

  • Koo, Kyoung-Mo;Seo, Jeong-Tek;Kang, Nak-Jung
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.127-144
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to derive service factors based on the "Rail Statistical Yearbook" data of railroad service providers from 1990 to 2019, and to analyze the effect of the service factors on the operating profit ratio(OPR), a representative management performance variable of railroad transport service providers. In particular, it has academic significance in terms of empirical research to evaluate whether the management innovation of the KoRail has changed in line with the purpose of establishing the corporation by dividing the research period into the first period (1990-2003) and the latter (2004-2019). The contents of this study investigated previous studies on the quality of railway passenger transportation service and analyzed the contents of government presentation data related to the management performance evaluation of the KoRail. As an empirical analysis model, a research model was constructed using OPR as a dependent variable and service factor variables of infrastructure, economy, safety, connectivity, and business diversity as explanatory variables based on the operation and management activity information during the analysis period 30 years. On the results of research analysis, OPR is that the infrastructure factor is improved by structural reform or efficiency improvement. And economic factors are the fact that operating profit ratio improves by reducing costs. The safety factor did not reveal the significant explanatory power of the regression coefficient, but the sign of influence was the same as the prediction. Connectivity factor reveals a influence on differences between first period and latter, but OPR impact direction is changed from negative in before to positive in late. This is an evironment in which connectivity is actually realized in later period. On diversity factor, there is no effect of investment share in subsidiaries and government subsidies on OPR.

Factors Affecting Physicians who will be Vaccinated Every Year after Receiving the COVID-19 Vaccine in Healthcare Workers (의료종사자의 COVID-19 예방 백신 접종받은 후 향후 매년 예방접종 의향에 미치는 요인)

  • Hyeun-Woo Choi;Sung-Hwa Park;Eun-Kyung Cho;Chang-hyun Han;Jong-Min Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.257-265
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study was to vaccinate every year according to the general characteristics of COVID-19, whether to vaccinate every year according to the vaccination experience, whether to vaccinate every year according to knowledge/attitude about vaccination, and negative responses to the vaccinate every year In order to understand the factors affecting the vaccination physician every year by identifying the factors of Statistical analysis is based on general characteristics, variables based on vaccination experience, and knowledge/attitudes related to vaccination. The doctor calculates the frequency and percentage, A square test (-test) was performed, and if the chi-square test was significant but the expected frequency was less than 5 for 25% or more, a ratio difference test was performed with Fisher's exact test. Through multiple logistic regression analysis using variables that were significant in simple analysis, a predictive model for future vaccination and the effect size of each independent variable were estimated. As statistical analysis software, SAS 9.4 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA) was used, and because the sample size was not large, the significance level was set at 10%, and when the p-value was less than 0.10, it was interpreted as statistically significant. In the simple logistic regression analysis, the reason why they answered that they would not be vaccinated every year was that they answered 'to prevent infection of family and hospital guests' rather than 'to prevent my infection' as the reason for the vaccination. It was 11.0 times higher and 3.67 times higher in the case of 'for the formation of collective immunity of the local community and the country'. The adverse reactions experienced after the 1st and 2nd vaccination were 8.42 times higher in those who did not experience pain at the injection site than those who did not, 4.00 times higher in those who experienced swelling or redness, and 5.69 times higher in those who experienced joint pain. There was a 5.57 times higher rate of absenteeism annually than those who did not. In addition, the more anxious they felt about vaccination, the more likely they were to not get the vaccine every year by 2.94 times.

A Study on Estimation of Environmental Value of Tentatively Named 'East-West Trail' Using CVM (CVM기법을 이용한 가칭 '동서트레일'의 환경가치 추정)

  • Kee-Rae Kang;Yoon-Ho Choi;Bo-Kwang Chung;Dong-Pil Kim;Hyun-Kyeong Oh;Woo-Sung Lee;Su-Bok Chae
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.676-683
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    • 2022
  • Due to the effects of rapid changes in the living environment since 2000 and the recent unforeseen pandemic, people are refraining from domestic and international traveling and movement, and outdoor activities for health and the public value of forest trails, called Dullegil Trail in Korea, have become more important. This study estimated the environmental value of the tentatively named "East-West Trail," which connects the forest trails crossing Chungcheong and Gyeongsang Provinces using CVM (Contingent Valuation Method). It surveyed visitors to the East-West Trail, and 725 questionnaires were used for analysis. The average characteristics of respondents were those who exercised 2-3 times per week, visited a forest trail not far from their residence with friends or family, and showed a tendency to spend 50 thousand Korean won or more per visit. Visitors to the Dullegil Trail felt that there was a shortage of information boards on the forest trail, and they preferred a shelter in appropriate locations. We used a double-bounded dichotomous choice (BDDC) logit model proposed by Hanemann to measure the conservation value of the East-West Trail. It was estimated that the environmental value that a visitor to the East-West Trail could obtain was 30,087 won per trip. The estimated environmental value of the East-West Trail can be converted to about 94 billion won total visitors annually based on the population belonging to the direct-use zone near the East-West Trail. As there has been no study on the environmental value of forest trails using CVM, the results of this study will be able to suggest the feasibility of the government policies on forest trails.

A Study on Consumer's Emotional Consumption Value and Purchase Intention about IoT Products - Focused on the preference of using EEG - (IoT 제품에 관한 소비자의 감성적 소비가치와 구매의도에 관한 연구 - EEG를 활용한 선호도 연구를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Young-ae;Kim, Seung-in
    • Journal of Communication Design
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    • v.68
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    • pp.278-288
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of risk and convenience on purchase intention in the IOT market, and I want to analyze the moderating effect of emotional consumption value. In this study, two products were selected from three product groups. There are three major methods of research. First, theoretical considerations. Second, survey analysis. Reliability analysis and factor analysis were performed using descriptive statistics using SPSS. Third, we measured changes of EEG according to in - depth interview and indirect experience. As a result of the hypothesis of this study, it was confirmed that convenience of use of IoT product influences purchase intention. Risk was predicted to have a negative effect on purchase intentions, but not significant in this study. This implies that IoT products tend to be neglected in terms of monetary loss such as cost of purchase, cost of use, and disposal cost when purchasing. In-depth interviews and EEG analysis revealed that there is a desire to purchase and try out the IoT product due to the nature of the product, the novelty of new technology, and the vague idea that it will benefit my life. The aesthetic, symbolic, and pleasure factors, which are sub - elements of emotional consumption value, were found to have a great influence. This is consistent with previous research showing that emotional consumption value has a positive effect on purchase intention. In-depth interviews and EEG analyzes also yielded the same results. This study has revealed that emotional consumption value affects the intention to purchase IoT products. It seems that companies producing IoT products need to concentrate on marketing with more emotional consumption value.

Effects of Social Exclusion on Displaced Aggression: the Mediatingon Effect of Stress and Conditional Direct Effect of Social Support (사회적 배제가 전위된 공격성에 미치는 영향: 스트레스의 매개효과 및 사회적지지의 조건부 직접효과)

  • Yoonjae Noh;Sangyeon Yoon
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.455-476
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    • 2023
  • This study focused on the characteristics of motiveless crimes that mainly originated from interpersonal problems and were acts of revenge against innocent third parties. This study confirmed the relationship between the experience of social exclusion and displaced aggression and examined the relationship between the two variables. We sought to confirm the role of related factors such as stress and social support. For this purpose, we established and tested hypotheses about the mediatingon effect of stress and the moderated mediatingon effect of social support on the effect of social exclusion experience on displaced aggression among 353 adult males aged between 19 and 49 years. The main results are that, first, social exclusion had a positive effect on displaced aggression. Second, stress was found to partially mediate the relationship between social exclusion and displaced aggression. Third, the hypothesis that social support would moderate the mediating effect of stress was not provedvaild, but the conditional direct effect of social support was confirmed in the mediation model. In other words, social support did not affect the indirect effect mediated by stress, but appeared to moderate the direct effect between social exclusion and displaced aggression. Social exclusion's prediction of displaced aggression was significant only in the average social support group (mean) and the high group (M+1SD), and appeared to increase as the group increased. This means that in groups with high social support, displaced aggression is used as a stress control strategy, which is a different result from previous studies that found that social support plays a role in lowerings aggression. People with low levels of social support showed unexpected results in that they used displaced aggression less frequently despite their experiencinge of social exclusion. In the discussion, the social implications of these results were interpreted, and additional research ideas were proposed to specify the relationship between social exclusion and displaced aggression.

Comparison between Uncertainties of Cultivar Parameter Estimates Obtained Using Error Calculation Methods for Forage Rice Cultivars (오차 계산 방식에 따른 사료용 벼 품종의 품종모수 추정치 불확도 비교)

  • Young Sang Joh;Shinwoo Hyun;Kwang Soo Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.129-141
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    • 2023
  • Crop models have been used to predict yield under diverse environmental and cultivation conditions, which can be used to support decisions on the management of forage crop. Cultivar parameters are one of required inputs to crop models in order to represent genetic properties for a given forage cultivar. The objectives of this study were to compare calibration and ensemble approaches in order to minimize the uncertainty of crop yield estimates using the SIMPLE crop model. Cultivar parameters were calibrated using Log-likelihood (LL) and Generic Composite Similarity Measure (GCSM) as an objective function for Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm. In total, 20 sets of cultivar parameters were generated for each method. Two types of ensemble approach. First type of ensemble approach was the average of model outputs (Eem), using individual parameters. The second ensemble approach was model output (Epm) of cultivar parameter obtained by averaging given 20 sets of parameters. Comparison was done for each cultivar and for each error calculation methods. 'Jowoo' and 'Yeongwoo', which are forage rice cultivars used in Korea, were subject to the parameter calibration. Yield data were obtained from experiment fields at Suwon, Jeonju, Naju and I ksan. Data for 2013, 2014 and 2016 were used for parameter calibration. For validation, yield data reported from 2016 to 2018 at Suwon was used. Initial calibration indicated that genetic coefficients obtained by LL were distributed in a narrower range than coefficients obtained by GCSM. A two-sample t-test was performed to compare between different methods of ensemble approaches and no significant difference was found between them. Uncertainty of GCSM can be neutralized by adjusting the acceptance probability. The other ensemble method (Epm) indicates that the uncertainty can be reduced with less computation using ensemble approach.

A Study of Depression in Female Seniors Living Alone: A Comparison Between the Young-old and the Old-old Adults (여성 독거노인의 우울에 관한 연구: 전기와 후기노인의 비교를 중심으로)

  • Jin-Seop Lim;Je-sun Kim
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.149-162
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    • 2024
  • This study is a longitudinal study of female older adults living alone, one of the most vulnerable groups in our society, to determine how their depression changes over time and what factors affect their depression. At the same time, considering that there is a large difference in age among the same older adults, this study divided the female older adults into the young-old and the old-old to see how the predictors of depression in each group differ from each other. The main findings are as follows First, depression among female older adults living alone appears to have a declining pattern over time. In the conditional model, factors affecting the initial level of the depression trajectory among women living alone were found to be associated with lower initial depression values among those living in metropolitan areas rather than non-metropolitan areas, better subjective health, and those who did not exercise. Next, we examined the factors affecting rate of change (slope) in depression among female living alone older adults and found that the higher the age, the larger the metropolitan area, the better the subjective health, the less socializing, and the more socializing, the greater the decrease in depression level. Finally, there were some differences in the pathways affecting the initial value and slope of depression among female older adults living alone between the early and late older adults. Specifically, the higher the initial level of participation in social activities, the greater the change in depression among the late older adults, while there was no significant relationship among the early older adults. In the early older adults, better initial subjective health was associated with a larger change in depression than in the late older adults. Only in the late older adults did those who regularly exercised in the early years have higher initial depression values than those who did not. Based on the results of the above analyses, suggestions were made to reduce depression among female older adults living alone.

Future Changes in Global Terrestrial Carbon Cycle under RCP Scenarios (RCP 시나리오에 따른 미래 전지구 육상탄소순환 변화 전망)

  • Lee, Cheol;Boo, Kyung-On;Hong, Jinkyu;Seong, Hyunmin;Heo, Tae-kyung;Seol, Kyung-Hee;Lee, Johan;Cho, ChunHo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.303-315
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    • 2014
  • Terrestrial ecosystem plays the important role as carbon sink in the global carbon cycle. Understanding of interactions of terrestrial carbon cycle with climate is important for better prediction of future climate change. In this paper, terrestrial carbon cycle is investigated by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Carbon Cycle (HadGEM2-CC) that considers vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle with climate. The simulation for future projection is based on the three (8.5/4.5/2.6) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from 2006 to 2100 and compared with historical land carbon uptake from 1979 to 2005. Projected changes in ecological features such as production, respiration, net ecosystem exchange and climate condition show similar pattern in three RCPs, while the response amplitude in each RCPs are different. For all RCP scenarios, temperature and precipitation increase with rising of the atmospheric $CO_2$. Such climate conditions are favorable for vegetation growth and extension, causing future increase of terrestrial carbon uptakes in all RCPs. At the end of 21st century, the global average of gross and net primary productions and respiration increase in all RCPs and terrestrial ecosystem remains as carbon sink. This enhancement of land $CO_2$ uptake is attributed by the vegetated area expansion, increasing LAI, and early onset of growing season. After mid-21st century, temperature rising leads to excessive increase of soil respiration than net primary production and thus the terrestrial carbon uptake begins to fall since that time. Regionally the NEE average value of East-Asia ($90^{\circ}E-140^{\circ}E$, $20^{\circ}N{\sim}60^{\circ}N$) area is bigger than that of the same latitude band. In the end-$21^{st}$ the NEE mean values in East-Asia area are $-2.09PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-1.12PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.47PgC\;yr^{-1}$ and zonal mean NEEs of the same latitude region are $-1.12PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.55PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.17PgC\;yr^{-1}$ for RCP 8.5, 4.5, 2.6.

A Hybrid Recommender System based on Collaborative Filtering with Selective Use of Overall and Multicriteria Ratings (종합 평점과 다기준 평점을 선택적으로 활용하는 협업필터링 기반 하이브리드 추천 시스템)

  • Ku, Min Jung;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.85-109
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    • 2018
  • Recommender system recommends the items expected to be purchased by a customer in the future according to his or her previous purchase behaviors. It has been served as a tool for realizing one-to-one personalization for an e-commerce service company. Traditional recommender systems, especially the recommender systems based on collaborative filtering (CF), which is the most popular recommendation algorithm in both academy and industry, are designed to generate the items list for recommendation by using 'overall rating' - a single criterion. However, it has critical limitations in understanding the customers' preferences in detail. Recently, to mitigate these limitations, some leading e-commerce companies have begun to get feedback from their customers in a form of 'multicritera ratings'. Multicriteria ratings enable the companies to understand their customers' preferences from the multidimensional viewpoints. Moreover, it is easy to handle and analyze the multidimensional ratings because they are quantitative. But, the recommendation using multicritera ratings also has limitation that it may omit detail information on a user's preference because it only considers three-to-five predetermined criteria in most cases. Under this background, this study proposes a novel hybrid recommendation system, which selectively uses the results from 'traditional CF' and 'CF using multicriteria ratings'. Our proposed system is based on the premise that some people have holistic preference scheme, whereas others have composite preference scheme. Thus, our system is designed to use traditional CF using overall rating for the users with holistic preference, and to use CF using multicriteria ratings for the users with composite preference. To validate the usefulness of the proposed system, we applied it to a real-world dataset regarding the recommendation for POI (point-of-interests). Providing personalized POI recommendation is getting more attentions as the popularity of the location-based services such as Yelp and Foursquare increases. The dataset was collected from university students via a Web-based online survey system. Using the survey system, we collected the overall ratings as well as the ratings for each criterion for 48 POIs that are located near K university in Seoul, South Korea. The criteria include 'food or taste', 'price' and 'service or mood'. As a result, we obtain 2,878 valid ratings from 112 users. Among 48 items, 38 items (80%) are used as training dataset, and the remaining 10 items (20%) are used as validation dataset. To examine the effectiveness of the proposed system (i.e. hybrid selective model), we compared its performance to the performances of two comparison models - the traditional CF and the CF with multicriteria ratings. The performances of recommender systems were evaluated by using two metrics - average MAE(mean absolute error) and precision-in-top-N. Precision-in-top-N represents the percentage of truly high overall ratings among those that the model predicted would be the N most relevant items for each user. The experimental system was developed using Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications (VBA). The experimental results showed that our proposed system (avg. MAE = 0.584) outperformed traditional CF (avg. MAE = 0.591) as well as multicriteria CF (avg. AVE = 0.608). We also found that multicriteria CF showed worse performance compared to traditional CF in our data set, which is contradictory to the results in the most previous studies. This result supports the premise of our study that people have two different types of preference schemes - holistic and composite. Besides MAE, the proposed system outperformed all the comparison models in precision-in-top-3, precision-in-top-5, and precision-in-top-7. The results from the paired samples t-test presented that our proposed system outperformed traditional CF with 10% statistical significance level, and multicriteria CF with 1% statistical significance level from the perspective of average MAE. The proposed system sheds light on how to understand and utilize user's preference schemes in recommender systems domain.