• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 모형

Search Result 6,117, Processing Time 0.03 seconds

Development Study of a Predictive Model for the Possibility of Collection Delinquent Health Insurance Contributions (체납된 건강보험료 징수 가능성 예측모형 개발 연구)

  • Young-Kyoon Na
    • Health Policy and Management
    • /
    • v.33 no.4
    • /
    • pp.450-456
    • /
    • 2023
  • Background: This study aims to develop a "Predictive Model for the Possibility of Collection Delinquent Health Insurance Contributions" for the National Health Insurance Service to enhance administrative efficiency in protecting and collecting contributions from livelihood-type defaulters. Additionally, it aims to establish customized collection management strategies based on individuals' ability to pay health insurance contributions. Methods: Firstly, to develop the "Predictive Model for the Possibility of Collection Delinquent Health Insurance Contributions," a series of processes including (1) analysis of defaulter characteristics, (2) model estimation and performance evaluation, and (3) model derivation will be conducted. Secondly, using the predictions from the model, individuals will be categorized into four types based on their payment ability and livelihood status, and collection strategies will be provided for each type. Results: Firstly, the regression equation of the prediction model is as follows: phat = exp (0.4729 + 0.0392 × gender + 0.00894 × age + 0.000563 × total income - 0.2849 × low-income type enrollee - 0.2271 × delinquency frequency + 0.9714 × delinquency action + 0.0851 × reduction) / [1 + exp (0.4729 + 0.0392 × gender + 0.00894 × age + 0.000563 × total income - 0.2849 × low-income type enrollee - 0.2271 × delinquency frequency + 0.9714 × delinquency action + 0.0851 × reduction)]. The prediction performance is an accuracy of 86.0%, sensitivity of 87.0%, and specificity of 84.8%. Secondly, individuals were categorized into four types based on livelihood status and payment ability. Particularly, the "support needed group," which comprises those with low payment ability and low-income type enrollee, suggests enhancing contribution relief and support policies. On the other hand, the "high-risk group," which comprises those without livelihood type and low payment ability, suggests implementing stricter default handling to improve collection rates. Conclusion: Upon examining the regression equation of the prediction model, it is evident that individuals with lower income levels and a history of past defaults have a lower probability of payment. This implies that defaults occur among those without the ability to bear the burden of health insurance contributions, leading to long-term defaults. Social insurance operates on the principles of mandatory participation and burden based on the ability to pay. Therefore, it is necessary to develop policies that consider individuals' ability to pay, such as transitioning livelihood-type defaulters to medical assistance or reducing insurance contribution burdens.

Experimental study on structural integrity assessment of utility tunnels using coupled pulse-impact echo method (결합된 초음파-충격 반향 기법 기반의 일반 지하구 구조체의 건전도 평가에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Jin Kim;Jeong-Uk Bang;Seungbo Shim;Gye-Chun Cho
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
    • /
    • v.25 no.6
    • /
    • pp.479-493
    • /
    • 2023
  • The need for safety management has arisen due to the increasing number of years of operated underground structures, such as tunnels and utility tunnels, and accidents caused by those aging infrastructures. However, in the case of privately managed underground utility ducts, there is a lack of detailed guidelines for facility safety and maintenance, resulting in inadequate safety management. Furthermore, the absence of basic design information and the limited space for safety assessments make applying currently used non-destructive testing methods challenging. Therefore, this study suggests non-destructive inspection methods using ultrasonic and impact-echo techniques to assess the quality of underground structures. Thickness, presence of rebars, depth of rebars, and the presence and depth of internal defects are assessed to provide fundamental data for the safety assessment of box-type general underground structures. To validate the proposed methodology, different conditions of concrete specimens are designed and cured to simulate actual field conditions. Applying ultrasonic and impact signals and collecting data through multi-channel accelerometers determine the thickness of the simulated specimens, the depth of embedded rebar, and the extent of defects. The predicted results are well agreed upon compared with actual measurements. The proposed methodology is expected to contribute to developing safety diagnostic methods applicable to general underground structures in practical field conditions.

Analyzing Factors Affecting the Use of Landowner's Purchase Requisition Policy in Bukhansan National Park (북한산국립공원 내 토지매수 청구 제도 활용 요인 분석)

  • Chan Yong Sung;Young Jae Yi
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
    • /
    • v.37 no.6
    • /
    • pp.499-507
    • /
    • 2023
  • This study conducted an empirical analysis on a land purchase requisition policy in Bukhansan National Park to draw the efficacy, limitations and implications of this policy. A logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify factors that affected the landowners' decision on applying for land purchase requisition using the government's records on acquisition of private lands in the park since 2006 when this policy began to be implemented. Results illustrate that the probability that a landowner applied for purchase requisition increased if the land was classified as forest, if a large proportion of the land was designated as the nature conservation district, if it was located farther from park boundary, and if it had higher appraised value per square meter. These results indicate that as the landowners had less chance to utilize their lands, they more likely apply for purchase requisition. These results also imply that the government can achieve a high conservation performance level if private lands are acquire by the land acquisition requisition policy. The logistic regression model also predict that 401m2 of the private lands in Bukhansan National Park will likely be purchase-requested in future. Despites its usefulness in mitigating landowners' complaints in national parks, the land purchase requisition policy has not been widely utilized. Based on these empirical results, this study provides policy implications to facilitate the ulitization of this policy.

Correlation Between the Headphone's Acoustical Characteristics and Subjective Preferences (헤드폰의 음향적 특성과 주관적 선호도간의 상관 관계)

  • Lee, Ki-Seung;Lee, Seok-Pil
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.28 no.2
    • /
    • pp.96-106
    • /
    • 2009
  • In this paper, correlation between the headphone's acoustical characteristics and the subjective preferences is analyzed, and a possibility of predicting the subjective preferences using the acoustical characteristics is investigated, The headphone's acoustical characteristics include the total harmonic distortions, the variation of the frequency response which were measured by separate channel and the inter-aural correlation coefficients, Those characteristics were measured in a noise-free anechoic chamber, using a head and torso simulator, The subjective preferences were scored in terms of loudness, clearness, spaciousness, fullness and overall impression, In the subjective listening test, 12 subjects were participated who have plentiful listening experiences, The programs include 5 kinds of musics; korean popular song, pop song, light music, male-voice and classic, The 8 models of the headphones were employed, including 4 closed-type circumaural headphones, 2 open-type supraaural headphones and 2 intra-concha headphones, A significant test was carred on the results from the subjective test, using a two-way ANOVA test, The correlation coefficients between the acoustical parameters and the subjective preferences were computed, Experimental results showed that the variation of the magnitude of frequency response measured from a right channel revealed higher correlation with the subjective preferences. Whereas the inter-aural correlation coefficients have very low correlation coefficients.

A Study on the Effect of Traditional Market Revitalization Factors on Management Performance (전통시장 활성화 요인이 경영성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Se-Yong Kwon;Mi-Rye Kang;Hyung-Ho Kim
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
    • /
    • v.10 no.1
    • /
    • pp.307-317
    • /
    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of merchants' perceptions of service quality, youth mall creation, and traditional market revitalization on management performance to derive factors that can improve the self-sustainability of the traditional market. In particular, it was intended to predict the practical effect of the youth mall creation project by including merchants' perceptions of the rapidly emerging youth mall to revitalize the traditional market. In this study, 430 small business owners from five private traditional markets in Iksan were surveyed, the research model was verified by analyzing the technical statistics, reliability, and validity of the data collected using the SPSS 21.0 program, and the hypothesis was verified through correlation and regression analysis. Although youth malls are actively promoted at the government level to revitalize traditional markets and improve management performance, this study confirmed that the creation of youth malls in traditional markets does not directly affect traditional market revitalization and management performance, confirming that policies to create youth malls that can actually help revitalize traditional markets and improve management performance in the future need to be promoted.

An Intensive Interview Study on the Process of Scientists' Science Knowledge Generation (과학자의 과학지식 생성 과정에 대한 심층 면담 요구)

  • Yang, Il-Ho;Jeong, Jin-Su;Kwon, Yong-Ju;Jeong, Jin-Woo;Hur, Myoung;Oh, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.88-98
    • /
    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze the process of scientists' science knowledge generation by employing four creative scientists as participants. Raw protocols were collected by an intensive interview method and then analyzed by a psychological modelling procedure. The present study showed that the process of knowledge generation divided into the processes of inductive, abductive, and deductive thinking. Furthermore, the inductive process in simple and operative observation was involved in the processes of generating a question, conjecture/prediction, designing an operational method, operation, and simple observation. Also, the abductive process had two components; question generation, and hypothesis generation which consisted of analyzing questions, searching explicans, and constructing hypothesis. Finally, the deductive process involved inventing abstract test methods, inventing abstract criteria, inventing concrete test methods, inventing concrete criteria, collecting results, and evaluating hypotheses and stating conclusions.

Estimation of Family Variation and Genetic Parameter for Growth Traits of Pacific Abalone, Haliotis discus hannai on the 3th Generation of Selection (선발 3세대 북방전복의 성장형질에 대한 가계변이 및 유전모수 추정)

  • Park, Jong-Won;Park, Choul-Ji;Lee, Jeong-Ho;Noh, Jae-Koo;Kim, Hyun-Chul;Hwang, In-Joon;Kim, Sung-Yeon
    • The Korean Journal of Malacology
    • /
    • v.29 no.4
    • /
    • pp.325-334
    • /
    • 2013
  • The purpose of this paper is to compare and analyze family variations for growth-related traits of Pacific abalone, Haliotis discus hannai. Genetic parameters and breeding values were estimated using all measurement data like shell length, shell width, and total weight as 18-month-old growth traits of 5,334 individuals of selected third generation's Pacific abalone produced in 2011. Family variations of 865 individuals of the upper 10 families with the largest number were inspected. Overall mean in phenotypic traits of 18-month-old Pacific abalone which was investigated in this study showed 54.5 mm of shell length, 36.8 mm of shell width and 21.3 g of total weight respectively. And, variation coefficient of total weight was 51.0%, so variability of data was shown to be higher than 21.1% of shell length and 20.7% of shell width. The family effects showed significant difference by each family (p < 0.05), and heritability of shell length, shell width, and total weight was medium with 0.370, 0.382, and 0.367 respectively. So it is considered that family selection is more advantageous than individual selection. On the basis of breeding values of estimated shell length and total weight, to investigate distribution and ranking by each individual about the upper 10 families with the largest number of individuals, the values were used by being changed into standardized breeding values. Based on shell length, it was investigated that the individual number of the upper 5.4% is 152 and the number of the lower 5.4% is 8. In case of total weight, it was inspected that the individual number of the upper 5.4% is 164 and the number of the lower 5.4% is 1. Like these, phenotypic and genetic diverse variations between families could be checked. By estimating genetic parameters and breeding values of a population for production of the next generation, if they are used properly in selection and mating, it is considered that more breeding effects can be expected.

Extraction of Primary Factors Influencing Dam Operation Using Factor Analysis (요인분석 통계기법을 이용한 댐 운영에 대한 영향 요인 추출)

  • Kang, Min-Goo;Jung, Chan-Yong;Lee, Gwang-Man
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.40 no.10
    • /
    • pp.769-781
    • /
    • 2007
  • Factor analysis has been usually employed in reducing quantity of data and summarizing information on a system or phenomenon. In this analysis methodology, variables are grouped into several factors by consideration of statistic characteristics, and the results are used for dropping variables which have lower weight than others. In this study, factor analysis was applied for extracting primary factors influencing multi-dam system operation in the Han River basin, where there are two multi-purpose dams such as Soyanggang Dam and Chungju Dam, and water has been supplied by integrating two dams in water use season. In order to fulfill factor analysis, first the variables related to two dams operation were gathered and divided into five groups (Soyanggang Dam: inflow, hydropower product, storage management, storage, and operation results of the past; Chungju Dam: inflow, hydropower product, water demand, storage, and operation results of the past). And then, considering statistic properties, in the gathered variables, some variables were chosen and grouped into five factors; hydrological condition, dam operation of the past, dam operation at normal season, water demand, and downstream dam operation. In order to check the appropriateness and applicability of factors, a multiple regression equation was newly constructed using factors as description variables, and those factors were compared with terms of objective function used in operation water resources optimally in a river basin. Reviewing the results through two check processes, it was revealed that the suggested approach provided satisfactory results. And, it was expected for extracted primary factors to be useful for making dam operation schedule considering the future situation and previous results.

Assessment of future climate and land use changes impact on hydrologic behavior in Anseong-cheon Gongdo urban-growing watershed (미래 기후변화와 토지이용변화가 안성천 공도 도시성장 유역의 수문에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Da Rae;Lee, Yong Gwan;Lee, Ji Wan;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.51 no.2
    • /
    • pp.141-150
    • /
    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the future hydrologic behavior affected by the potential climate and land use changes in upstream of Anseong-cheon watershed ($366.5km^2$) using SWAT. The HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used for 2030s (2020-2039) and 2050s (2040-2059) periods as the future climate change scenario. It was shown that maximum changes of precipitation ranged from -5.7% in 2030s to +18.5% in 2050s for RCP 4.5 scenarios and the temperature increased up to $1.8^{\circ}C$ and $2.6^{\circ}C$ in 2030s RCP 4.5 and 2050s 8.5 scenarios respectively based on baseline (1976-2005) period. The future land uses were predicted using the CLUE-s model by establishing logistic regression equation. The 2050 urban area were predicted to increase of 58.6% (29.0 to $46.0km^2$). The SWAT was calibrated and verified using 14 years (2002-2015) of daily streamflow with 0.86 and 0.76 Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) for stream flow (Q) and low flow 1/Q respectively focusing on 2 drought years (2014-2015) calibration. For future climate change only, the stream discharge showed maximum decrease of 24.2% in 2030s RCP 4.5 and turned to maximum increase of 10.9% in 2050s RCP 4.5 scenario compared with the baseline period stream discharge of 601.0 mm by the precipitation variation and gradual temperature increase. While considering both future climate and land use change, the stream discharge showed maximum decrease of 14.9% in 2030s RCP 4.5 and maximum increase of 19.5% in 2050s RCP 4.5 scenario by the urban growth and the related land use changes. The results supported that the future land use factor might be considered especially for having high potential urban growth within a watershed in the future climate change assessment.

Florida, USA Food-Related Lifestyle Segments of Older Consumers in Seoul and Its Characteristics (서울지역 고령소비자의 식생활 라이프스타일에 근거한 시장세분화 및 특성 규명)

  • Jang, Yoon-Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
    • /
    • v.39 no.1
    • /
    • pp.146-153
    • /
    • 2010
  • The objectives of this study were to explore food-related lifestyle segments of the older consumers, to identify its socio-demographic characteristics, and to investigate the differences in variables regarding health beliefs. A survey was conducted of adults 55 years of age and older living in Seoul, South Korea from March 28 to April 10, 2007. Out of the 500 distributed questionnaires, 361 were retained for final analysis: a response rate of 72.2%. As a result of cluster analysis, five consumer segments were identified; health-managing group, diet-unconcerned group, convenience-oriented group, taste-oriented group, unpracticed group. Significant differences were found among the five segments in terms of socio-demographic characteristics and variables regarding health beliefs (i.e., perceived self-efficacy, perceived barriers, perceived benefits). In the health-managing group and taste-oriented group, mean scores of perceived self-efficacy (p<0.001) and perceived benefits (p<0.001) were significantly higher than other groups. However, in the diet-unconcerned group and convenience-oriented group, the mean scores of perceived barriers (p<0.01) were significantly high. This study shows that foodservice operators targeting the older consumers should consider characteristics of each segment to develop a customized program.