• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 기법

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Evaluation of Maritime Safety Technology for Official Development Assistance (ODA) (국제협력사업 추진을 위한 해사안전기술 평가 연구)

  • Oh, Se-Woong;Jeon, Tae-Byung;Lee, Moon-Jin;Suh, Sang-Hyun;Cho, Dong-Oh
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.81-91
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    • 2010
  • IMO(International Maritime Organization) and the Shipping World rave complied with various kinds of international regulations for maritime safety and marine environmental protection, but the main reason of maritime accidents is that developing countries cannot implement maritime safety related regulations. Although Korea has been a member of the "A group" council of IMO, maritime technology transfer records of Korea are not good. To promote the project of official development assistance in Korea, it is required to select the technology which has a high degree of importance in the fields of maritime safety and has a high degree of demand on the transfer to developing countries, and to concentrate on the selected technology. So, it is necessary to draw valuation factors for maritime safety technology and to decide the priority in order among maritime safety technologies on the basis of valuation factors. Because the weights which show the degree of importance among valuation factors are different from factor to factor, interdependent relationship between factors should be considered on evaluation. In this study, the valuation factors were divided into three groups as the maturity of maritime safety technology, the promotion probability of projects and the degree of importance of technology, and the detailed factors of each group were drawn. A model which used Fuzzy AHP and limiting probability to consider the weights of importance and correlation among valuation factors was developed. To adopt this model, nine types of maritime safety technology in the field of maritime safety information were selected and points were scored for each technology through evaluation. In conclusion, first, ENC related technology was scored to be the highest as 0.0139. Second, the point of ship monitoring technology was scored as 0.0133. Last, oil spill response technology was scored as 0.0132.

A Study on Optimal Site Selection for Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation System (AMOS): the Case of Honam and Jeju Areas (최적의 산악기상관측망 적정위치 선정 연구 - 호남·제주 권역을 대상으로)

  • Yoon, Sukhee;Won, Myoungsoo;Jang, Keunchang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.208-220
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    • 2016
  • Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation System (AMOS) is an important ingredient for several climatological and forest disaster prediction studies. In this study, we select the optimal sites for AMOS in the mountain areas of Honam and Jeju in order to prevent forest disasters such as forest fires and landslides. So, this study used spatial dataset such as national forest map, forest roads, hiking trails and 30m DEM(Digital Elevation Model) as well as forest risk map(forest fire and landslide), national AWS information to extract optimal site selection of AMOS. Technical methods for optimal site selection of the AMOS was the firstly used multifractal model, IDW interpolation, spatial redundancy for 2.5km AWS buffering analysis, and 200m buffering analysis by using ArcGIS. Secondly, optimal sites selected by spatial analysis were estimated site accessibility, observatory environment of solar power and wireless communication through field survey. The threshold score for the final selection of the sites have to be higher than 70 points in the field assessment. In the result, a total of 159 polygons in national forest map were extracted by the spatial analysis and a total of 64 secondary candidate sites were selected for the ridge and the top of the area using Google Earth. Finally, a total of 26 optimal sites were selected by quantitative assessment based on field survey. Our selection criteria will serve for the establishment of the AMOS network for the best observations of weather conditions in the national forests. The effective observation network may enhance the mountain weather observations, which leads to accurate prediction of forest disasters.

The Effect of Patent Citation Relationship on Business Performance : A Social Network Analysis Perspective (특허 인용 관계가 기업 성과에 미치는 영향 : 소셜네트워크분석 관점)

  • Park, Jun Hyung;Kwahk, Kee-Young
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.127-139
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    • 2013
  • With an advent of recent knowledge-based society, the interest in intellectual property has increased. Firms have tired to result in productive outcomes through continuous innovative activity. Especially, ICT firms which lead high-tech industry have tried to manage intellectual property more systematically. Firm's interest in the patent has increased in order to manage the innovative activity and Knowledge property. The patent involves not only simple information but also important values as information of technology, management and right. Moreover, as the patent has the detailed contents regarding technology development activity, it is regarded as valuable data. The patent which reflects technology spread and research outcomes and business performances are closely interrelated as the patent is considered as a significant the level of firm's innovation. As the patent information which represents companies' intellectual capital is accumulated continuously, it has become possible to do quantitative analysis. The advantages of patent in the related industry information and it's standardize information can be easily obtained. Through the patent, the flow of knowledge can be determined. The patent information can analyze in various levels from patent to nation. The patent information is used to analyze technical status and the effects on performance. The patent which has a high frequency of citation refers to having high technological values. Analyzing the patent information contains both citation index analysis using the number of citation and network analysis using citation relationship. Network analysis can provide the information on the flows of knowledge and technological changes, and it can show future research direction. Studies using the patent citation analysis vary academically and practically. For the citation index research, studies to analyze influential big patent has been conducted, and for the network analysis research, studies to find out the flows of technology in a certain industry has been conducted. Social network analysis is applied not only in the sociology, but also in a field of management consulting and company's knowledge management. Research of how the company's network position has an impact on business performances has been conducted from various aspects in a field of network analysis. Social network analysis can be based on the visual forms. Network indicators are available through the quantitative analysis. Social network analysis is used when analyzing outcomes in terms of the position of network. Social network analysis focuses largely on centrality and structural holes. Centrality indicates that actors having central positions among other actors have an advantage to exert stronger influence for exchange relationship. Degree centrality, betweenness centrality and closeness centrality are used for centrality analysis. Structural holes refer to an empty place in social structure and are defined as efficiency and constraints. This study stresses and analyzes firms' network in terms of the patent and how network characteristics have an influence on business performances. For the purpose of doing this, seventy-four ICT companies listed in S&P500 are chosen for the sample. UCINET6 is used to analyze the network structural characteristics such as outdegree centrality, betweenness centrality and efficiency. Then, regression analysis test is conducted to find out how these network characteristics are related to business performance. It is found that each network index has significant impacts on net income, i.e. business performance. However, it is found that efficiency is negatively associated with business performance. As the efficiency increases, net income decreases and it has a negative impact on business performances. Furthermore, it is shown that betweenness centrality solely has statistically significance for the multiple regression analysis with three network indexes. The patent citation network analysis shows the flows of knowledge between firms, and it can be expected to contribute to company's management strategies by analyzing company's network structural positions.

The Role of the Endometrium and Embryo in Human Implantation (인간 착상 과정에 자궁내막과 배아의 역할)

  • Jee, Byung-Chul
    • Development and Reproduction
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2009
  • Implantation itself is governed by an array of endocrine, paracrine and autocrine modulators, of embryonic and maternal origin. Window of implantation is the unique temporal and spatial expression of factors allows the embryo to implant via signaling, appositioning, attachment, and invasion in a specific time frame of $2{\sim}4$ days. When the embryo has arrived in the uterine cavity, a preprogrammed sequence of events occurs, which involves the production and secretion of a multitude of biochemical factors such as cytokines, growth factors, and adhesion molecules by the endometrium and the embryo, thus leading to the formation of a receptive endometrium. Cytokines such as LIF, CSF-1, and IL-1 have all been shown to play important roles in the cascade of events that leads to implantation. Integrin, L-selectin ligands, glycodelin, mucin-1, HB-EGF and pinopodes are involved in appositioning and attachment. The embryo also produces cytokines and growth factors (ILs, VEGF) and receptors for endometrial signals such as LIF, CSF-1, IGF and HB-EGF. The immune system and angiogenesis play an important role. The usefulness of these factors to assess endometrial receptivity and to estimate the prognosis for pregnancy in natural and artificial cycles remains to be proven. Integrins, pinopodes, glycodelin and LIF (from biopsies) are promising candidates; from uterine flushings, glycodelin and LIF are also candidates. The ideal serum marker is not available, but VEGF, glycodelin and CSF have some clinical implications. Further evaluation that includes larger groups of infertile women and fertile controls are needed to elucidate whether their presence in plasma, flushing fluid, or endometrial samples can be used as some kind of a screening tool to assess endometrial function and prognosis for pregnancy before and after artificial reproductive therapy. A better understanding of their function in human implantation may lead to therapeutic intervention, thereby improving the success rate in reproduction treatment. New molecular techniques are becoming available for measuring both embryonic and endometrial changes prior to and during implantation. The use of predictive sets of markers may prove to be more reliable than a single marker. Ultimately, the aim is to use these tools to increase implantation in artificial cycles and consequently improve live-birth rates.

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Innovation Technology Development & Commercialization Promotion of R&D Performance to Domestic Renewable Energy (신재생에너지 기술혁신 개발과 R&D성과 사업화 촉진 방안)

  • Lee, Yong-Seok;Rho, Do-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.788-818
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    • 2009
  • Renewable energy refers to solar energy, biomass energy, hydrogen energy, wind power, fuel cell, coal liquefaction and vaporization, marine energy, waste energy, and liquidity fuel made out of byproduct of geothermal heat, hydrogen and coal; it excludes energy based on coal, oil, nuclear energy and natural gas. Developed countries have recognized the importance of these energies and thus have set the mid to long term plans to develop and commercialize the technology and supported them with drastic political and financial measures. Considering the growing recognition to the field, it is necessary to analysis up-to-now achievement of the government's related projects, in the standards of type of renewable energy, management of sectional goals, and its commercialization. Korean government is chiefly following suit the USA and British policies of developing and distributing renewable energy. However, unlike Japan which is in the lead role in solar rays industry, it still lacks in state-directed support, participation of enterprises and social recognition. The research regarding renewable energy has mainly examinedthe state of supply of each technology and suitability of specific region for applying the technology. The evaluation shows that the research has been focused on supply and demand of renewable as well as general energy and solution for the enhancement of supply capacity in certain area. However, in-depth study for commercialization and the increase of capacity in industry followed by development of the technology is still inadequate. 'Cost-benefit model for each energy source' is used in analysis of technology development of renewable energy and quantitative and macro economical effects of its commercialization in order to foresee following expand in related industries and increase in added value. First, Investment on the renewable energy technology development is in direct proportion both to the product and growth, but product shows slightly higher index under the same amount of R&D investment than growth. It indicates that advance in technology greatly influences the final product, the energy growth. Moreover, while R&D investment on renewable energy product as well as the government funds included in the investment have proportionate influence on the renewable energy growth, private investment in the total amount invested has reciprocal influence. This statistic shows that research and development is mainly driven by government funds rather than private investment. Finally, while R&D investment on renewable energy growth affects proportionately, government funds and private investment shows no direct relations, which indicates that the effects of research and development on renewable energy do not affect government funds or private investment. All of the results signify that although it is important to have government policy in technology development and commercialization, private investment and active participation of enterprises are the key to the success in the industry.

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Assessment of climate change impact on aquatic ecology health indices in Han river basin using SWAT and random forest (SWAT 및 random forest를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 한강유역의 수생태계 건강성 지수 영향 평가)

  • Woo, So Young;Jung, Chung Gil;Kim, Jin Uk;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.10
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    • pp.863-874
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the future climate change impact on stream aquatic ecology health of Han River watershed ($34,148km^2$) using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and random forest. The 8 years (2008~2015) spring (April to June) Aquatic ecology Health Indices (AHI) such as Trophic Diatom Index (TDI), Benthic Macroinvertebrate Index (BMI) and Fish Assessment Index (FAI) scored (0~100) and graded (A~E) by NIER (National Institute of Environmental Research) were used. The 8 years NIER indices with the water quality (T-N, $NH_4$, $NO_3$, T-P, $PO_4$) showed that the deviation of AHI score is large when the concentration of water quality is low, and AHI score had negative correlation when the concentration is high. By using random forest, one of the Machine Learning techniques for classification analysis, the classification results for the 3 indices grade showed that all of precision, recall, and f1-score were above 0.81. The future SWAT hydrology and water quality results under HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) showed that the future nitrogen-related water quality in watershed average increased up to 43.2% by the baseflow increase effect and the phosphorus-related water quality decreased up to 18.9% by the surface runoff decrease effect. The future FAI and BMI showed a little better Index grade while the future TDI showed a little worse index grade. We can infer that the future TDI is more sensitive to nitrogen-related water quality and the future FAI and BMI are responded to phosphorus-related water quality.

Origin-Destination Estimation Based on Cellular Phone's Base Station (휴대폰 기지국 정보를 이용한 O/D 추정기법 연구)

  • Kim, Si-Gon;Yu, Byeong-Seok;Gang, Seung-Pil
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2005
  • An Origin-Destination (O/D) is considered as one of the important information in route choices and trip assignments. A household interview survey is deemed to be the traditional and the most widely used method in making sample O/D and its conversion to the total O/D. Some researchers have studied to estimate dynamic O/D from the relationship between link volumes and trip assignment model. Nowadays, owing to the recent rapid spread of cellular phones. Location information of the cellular phone through the Base Station(BS) is considered as an alternative to O/D estimation. In this study, the methodology of generating BS-based O/D and the methodology of converting this O/D into an administrative district-based O/D are proposed. The information of GPS positions and cellular BS positions have acquired by establishing GPS equipment and cellular phone on taxies in Cheongju. Three weeks data are collected and used in estimating O/D by matching them on a digital map. Scatter diagram and sample correlation coefficients are used to investigate the similarity of the GPS-based O/D pattern among weeks, among days, and among times in day. The results show that there are few significant differences among weeks. But there is a difference in O/C pattern between weekday and weekend. Furthermore, there is a difference between morning peak and afternoon peak. Two methodologies are proposed to convert BS-based O/D into an administrative district-based O/D. The first one is to use the distribution pattern of GPS coordinates, the other is to use the coverage area of the BSs. To validate such converted O/D, GPS O/D is used as a true value. The statical analyses through scatter diagram, MAE and RMSE shows that there is few significant defference of pattern between the estimated BS-based O/D and GPS O/D. In the case of using only cellular information, the methodology using coverage area of the BSs is recommended for estimating O/D.

Assessing Effects of Calcium Chloride (CaCl2) Deicing Salt on Salt Tolerance of Miscanthus sinensis and Leachate Characterizations (염화칼슘 제설제 처리농도에 따른 참억새의 내염성 및 침출수 평가)

  • Ju, Jin-Hee;Yang, Ji;Park, Sun-Young;Yoon, Yong-Han
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this research is to evaluate the salt tolerance of the Miscanthus sinensis and to characterize the content of pigments in the leachate in relation to calcium chloride ($CaCl_2$) deicing salt. Miscanthus sinensis were cultured at five different concentrations of calcium chloride deicing salt, 0, 1, 2, 5, and $10g{\cdot}L^{-1}$ (referred to Cont. C1, C2, C5, and C10) for four months. The salt tolerance and leachate while growing Miscanthus sinensis on soil which was artificially contaminated by calcium chloride deicing salt. Soil chemical properties (pH, E.C., $Ca^{2+}$, $Na^+$, $K^+$, and $Mg^{2+}$) and plant growth parameters (plant height, leaf length, leaf width, number of leaves, shoot fresh weight, root fresh weight, shoot dry weight, an root dry weight) were evaluated. Soil pH decreased, while electrical conductivity significantly decreased ($p{\leq}0.05$) with a higher concentration of deicing salt $0g{\cdot}L^{-1}$ (Cont.). The increase in the concentration of chloride-based exchangeable cations, along with the increase in the deicing salt treatments, were observed in $Ca^{2+}$ > $Na^+$ > $K^+$ > $Mg^{2+}$. Notably the $Ca^{2+}$ exchangeable cations were 83~90% higher than the others. The growth of Miscanthus sinensis significantly increased ($p{\leq}0.05$) with the concentration of deicing salt higher than $1g{\cdot}L^{-1}$ (C1) when compared to 0 g/L (Cont.), except for the $10g{\cdot}L^{-1}$ (C10) treatment. The results determined that the contamination of soil by deicing salt could negatively impact the soil and Miscanthus sinensis was a tolerant species for the deicing salts. Further research will be focused on soil improvement additives and the stable stimulated plant growth of Miscanthus sinensis and a formulation on that basis for the soil-plant continuum.

Development of Music Recommendation System based on Customer Sentiment Analysis (소비자 감성 분석 기반의 음악 추천 알고리즘 개발)

  • Lee, Seung Jun;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.197-217
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    • 2018
  • Music is one of the most creative act that can express human sentiment with sound. Also, since music invoke people's sentiment to get empathized with it easily, it can either encourage or discourage people's sentiment with music what they are listening. Thus, sentiment is the primary factor when it comes to searching or recommending music to people. Regard to the music recommendation system, there are still lack of recommendation systems that are based on customer sentiment. An algorithm's that were used in previous music recommendation systems are mostly user based, for example, user's play history and playlists etc. Based on play history or playlists between multiple users, distance between music were calculated refer to basic information such as genre, singer, beat etc. It can filter out similar music to the users as a recommendation system. However those methodology have limitations like filter bubble. For example, if user listen to rock music only, it would be hard to get hip-hop or R&B music which have similar sentiment as a recommendation. In this study, we have focused on sentiment of music itself, and finally developed methodology of defining new index for music recommendation system. Concretely, we are proposing "SWEMS" index and using this index, we also extracted "Sentiment Pattern" for each music which was used for this research. Using this "SWEMS" index and "Sentiment Pattern", we expect that it can be used for a variety of purposes not only the music recommendation system but also as an algorithm which used for buildup predicting model etc. In this study, we had to develop the music recommendation system based on emotional adjectives which people generally feel when they listening to music. For that reason, it was necessary to collect a large amount of emotional adjectives as we can. Emotional adjectives were collected via previous study which is related to them. Also more emotional adjectives has collected via social metrics and qualitative interview. Finally, we could collect 134 individual adjectives. Through several steps, the collected adjectives were selected as the final 60 adjectives. Based on the final adjectives, music survey has taken as each item to evaluated the sentiment of a song. Surveys were taken by expert panels who like to listen to music. During the survey, all survey questions were based on emotional adjectives, no other information were collected. The music which evaluated from the previous step is divided into popular and unpopular songs, and the most relevant variables were derived from the popularity of music. The derived variables were reclassified through factor analysis and assigned a weight to the adjectives which belongs to the factor. We define the extracted factors as "SWEMS" index, which describes sentiment score of music in numeric value. In this study, we attempted to apply Case Based Reasoning method to implement an algorithm. Compare to other methodology, we used Case Based Reasoning because it shows similar problem solving method as what human do. Using "SWEMS" index of each music, an algorithm will be implemented based on the Euclidean distance to recommend a song similar to the emotion value which given by the factor for each music. Also, using "SWEMS" index, we can also draw "Sentiment Pattern" for each song. In this study, we found that the song which gives a similar emotion shows similar "Sentiment Pattern" each other. Through "Sentiment Pattern", we could also suggest a new group of music, which is different from the previous format of genre. This research would help people to quantify qualitative data. Also the algorithms can be used to quantify the content itself, which would help users to search the similar content more quickly.

Effects of Early Life Stress on the Development of Depression and Epigenetic Mechanisms of p11 Gene (생애 초기 유해 경험이 우울증의 발병과 p11 유전자의 후성유전기전에 미치는 영향)

  • Seo, Mi Kyoung;Choi, Ah Jeong;Lee, Jung Goo;Urm, Sang-Hwa;Park, Sung Woo;Seog, Dae-Hyun
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.29 no.9
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    • pp.1002-1009
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    • 2019
  • Early life stress (ELS) increases the risk of depression. ELS may be involved in the susceptibility to subsequent stress exposure during adulthood. We investigated whether epigenetic mechanisms of p11 promoter affect the vulnerability to chronic unpredictable stress (CUS) induced by the maternal separation (MS). Mice pups were separated from their dams (3 hr/day from P1-P21). When the pups reached adulthood, we applied CUS (daily for 3 weeks). The levels of hippocampal p11 expression were analyzed by quantitative real-time PCR. The levels of acetylated and methylated histone H3 at p11 promoter were measured by chromatin immunoprecipitation. Depression-like behavior was measured by the forced swimming test (FST). The MS and CUS group exhibited significant decreases in p11 mRNA level and the MS plus CUS group had a greater reduction in this level than the CUS group. The MS plus CUS group also resulted in greater reduction in H3 acetylation than the CUS group. This reduction was associated with an upregulation of histone deacetylase 5. Additionally, the MS plus CUS group showed a greater decrease in H3K4met3 level and a greater increase in H3K27 met3 level than the CUS group. Consistent with the reduction of p11 expression, the MS plus CUS group displayed longer immobility times in the FST compared to the control group. Mice exposed to MS followed by CUS had much greater epigenetic alterations in the hippocampus compared to adult mice that only experienced CUS. ELS can exacerbate the effect of stress exposure during adulthood through histone modification of p11 gene.