• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.19-25
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• 2014

Demand forecasting is the basis of management activities including marketing strategy. Especially, the demand of a part is remarkably important in supply chain management (SCM). In the fields of various industries, the part demand usually has the intermittent characteristic. The intermittent characteristic implies a phenomenon that there frequently occurs zero demands. In the intermittent demands, non-zero demands have large variance and their appearances also have stochastic nature. Accordingly, in the intermittent demand forecasting, it is inappropriate to apply the traditional time series models and/or cause-effect methods such as linear regression; they cannot describe the behaviors of intermittent demand. Markov bootstrap method was developed to forecast the intermittent demand. It assumes that first-order autocorrelation and independence of lead time demands. To release the assumption of independent lead time demands, this paper proposes a modified bootstrap method. The method produces the pseudo data having the characteristics of historical data approximately. A numerical example for real data will be provided as a case study.

• Clean Technology
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.265-271
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• 2012

The use of renewable energies has been required to diminish the dependency on fossil fuels. As one of clean energy sources biomass has been extensively studied because various biomass resources necessitated rapid characterization of their chemical and physical properties in an on-line or real-time basis. For such an analysis near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has been successfully applied because of its non-invasive and informative characteristics. In this work, the applicability of nonlinear chemometric techniques based on biomass near infrared (NIR) data is evaluated for the rapid prediction of ash/char contents in different types of biomass. The prediction results of various prediction models and the effect of using preprocessing methods for NIR data are compared using six types of biomass NIR data. The results showed that nonlinear prediction models yielded better prediction performance than linear ones. It also turned out that by adopting the use of proper preprocessing methods the performance of prediction of biomass properties improved.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.10 no.12
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• pp.1329-1336
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• 2015

Due to the advances in hardware technologies for low-power CMOS cameras, there have been various researches on wireless video sensor network(WVSN) applications including agricultural monitoring and environmental tracking. In such a system, its core technologies include video compression and wireless transmission. Since data of video sensors are bigger than those of other sensors, it is particularly necessary to estimate precisely the traffic after video encoding. In this paper, we present an estimation method for the encoded video traffic in WVSN networks. To estimate traffic characteristics accurately, the proposed method first measures complexities of frames and then applies them to the bit rate estimation adaptively. It is shown by experimental results that the proposed method improves the estimation of bit rate characteristics by more than 12% as compared to the existing method.

• Proceedings of the KAIS Fall Conference
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.248-250
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• 2008

This paper proposes a prediction method to prevent traffic accident and reduce to vehicle waiting time using neural network. Computer simulation results proved reducing average vehicle waiting time which proposed coordinating green time better than electro-sensitive traffic light system dose not consider coordinating green time. Moreover, we present neural network approach for traffic accident prediction with unnormalized (actual or original collected) data. This approach is not consider the maximum value of data and possible use the network without normalizing but the predictive accuracy is better. Also, the unnormalized method shows better predictive accuracy than the normalized method given by maximum value. Therefore, we can make the best use of this model in software reliability prediction using unnormalized data. Computer simulation results proved reducing traffic accident waiting time which proposed neural network better than conventional system dosen't consider neural network.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.12 no.7
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• pp.922-928
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• 2009

In H.264 as the newest video standard, 9 modes are used in order to predict the signal values of a block composed with several pixels by intra prediction. From these process, H.264 can bring high compression ratio in the encoded signal but the use of total 9 modes can give the inefficiency of the increase of the complexity induced by the amount of operation processing or the number of searching which is applied to compare adjacent pixels. This paper proposes a simplification method of prediction mode for the intra-picture coding by considering subjective interest region. There are certain region being interested within a picture of the video sequence. This region requires better subjective picture quality than the other regions. The proposed method increases the simplification of prediction mode by providing just essential modes of total 9 modes for less interest regions compared with the interest region. It is possible to get the additional 11%$\sim$15% simplification of the prediction mode by the proposed method, compared with the conventional method which simplifies the prediction mode for all of the picture by using the prediction characteristics only.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.11 no.6
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• pp.103-112
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• 2013

Traditional method of establishing prediction model is usually using formal data stored in Data Base. However, nowadays advent of "smart" era brought by ground-breaking development of communication system makes informal data to dominate overall data, such 80% in total. Therefore, conventional method using formal data as establishing predicting model would be untrustworthy means in present. In other words, it is indispensible to make prediction model credible including informal data(SNS, image, video) and semi-formal data(log data). In this study, we increase credibility of predicting model adapting Bigdata method and comparing reliability of conventional measurement to real-data.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.61-73
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• 2007

We examined technological forecasting of extended TFDEA(Technological Forecasting with Data Envelopment Analysis) and thereby apply the extended method to the technological forecasting problem of main battle tank. The TFDEA has the possibility of using comparatively inefficient DMUs(Decision Making Units) because it is based on DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis), which usually leads to multiple efficient DMUs. Therefore, TFDEA may result in incorrect technological forecasting. Instead of using the simple DEA, we incorporated the concept of Super-efficiency, Cross-efficiency, and CCCA(Constrained Canonical Correlation Analysis) into the TFDEA respectively, and applied each method to the case study of main battle tank using verifiable practical data sets. The comparative analysis shows that the use of CCCA with TFDEA results in very comparable prediction accuracies with respect to MAE(Mean Absolute Error), MSE(Mean Squared Error), and RMSE(Root Mean Squared Error) than using the concept of Super-efficiency and Cross-efficiency.

• Water for future
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.187-195
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• 1996

In this study, a methodology for the hourly prediction of rainfall surfaces was applied to the Pyungchang river basin at the upstream of South Han river with meteorological radar and ground rainfall data. The methods for the exclusion of abnormal echoes, and suppression of ground clutter, and the augmentation of attenuation effects associated with rainfall phenomena were reviewed, and the relationship between radar reflectivity (Z) and rainfall rate (R) was analyzed. The transformation of augmented radar reflectivities into the rdar rainfall surfaces was carried out, and afterward they were synthesized with the ground rainfall data generating the hourly rainfall surfaces. For the prediction of hourly rainfall surface, the moving factors of rainfall field estimated by the cross correlation coefficient method and the temporal variation of radar rainfall intensities were considered. The synthesized hourly rainfall surfaces were used to predict the hourly rainfall surfaces up to 3 hours in advance and subsequently the results were compared with the measured and the synthesized. It seems that the prediction method need to be verified with more data and be complemented further to consider the physical characteristics of rainfall field and the topography of the basin.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.11 no.11
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• pp.44-50
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• 2021

Recently, enterprise storage systems that require large-capacity storage devices to accommodate big data have used large-capacity flash memory-based storage devices with high density compared to cost and size. This paper proposes a high-efficiency life prediction method with slope descent to maximize the life of flash memory media that directly affects the reliability and usability of large enterprise storage devices. To this end, this paper proposes the structure of a matrix for storing metadata for learning the frequency of defects and proposes a cost model using metadata. It also proposes a life expectancy prediction policy in exceptional situations when defects outside the learned range occur. Lastly, it was verified through simulation that a method proposed by this paper can maximize its life compared to a life prediction method based on the fixed number of times and the life prediction method based on the remaining ratio of spare blocks, which has been used to predict the life of flash memory.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.57-64
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• 2020

Recently, due to the proliferation of IoT sensors, the development of big data and artificial intelligence, time series prediction research on fine dust pollution is actively conducted. However, because the data representing fine dust contamination changes rapidly, traditional time series prediction methods do not provide a level of accuracy that can be used in the field. In this paper, we propose a method that reflects the classification results of environmental conditions through CNN when predicting micro dust contamination using LSTM. Although LSTM and CNN are independent, they are integrated into one network through the interface, so this method is easier to understand than the application LSTM. In the verification experiments of the proposed method using Beijing PM2.5 data, the prediction accuracy and predictive power for the timing of change were consistently improved in various experimental cases.