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A Comparative Study of Technological Forecasting Methods with the Case of Main Battle Tank by Ranking Efficient Units in DEA  

Kim, Jae-Oh (고려대학교 정보공학전문대학원)
Kim, Jae-Hee (국립군산대학교 경영회계학부)
Kim, Sheung-Kown (고려대학교 정보공학전문대학원)
Publication Information
Journal of the military operations research society of Korea / v.33, no.2, 2007 , pp. 61-73 More about this Journal
Abstract
We examined technological forecasting of extended TFDEA(Technological Forecasting with Data Envelopment Analysis) and thereby apply the extended method to the technological forecasting problem of main battle tank. The TFDEA has the possibility of using comparatively inefficient DMUs(Decision Making Units) because it is based on DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis), which usually leads to multiple efficient DMUs. Therefore, TFDEA may result in incorrect technological forecasting. Instead of using the simple DEA, we incorporated the concept of Super-efficiency, Cross-efficiency, and CCCA(Constrained Canonical Correlation Analysis) into the TFDEA respectively, and applied each method to the case study of main battle tank using verifiable practical data sets. The comparative analysis shows that the use of CCCA with TFDEA results in very comparable prediction accuracies with respect to MAE(Mean Absolute Error), MSE(Mean Squared Error), and RMSE(Root Mean Squared Error) than using the concept of Super-efficiency and Cross-efficiency.
Keywords
TFDEA; DEA; Super-efficiency; Cross-efficiency; CCCA;
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