• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측강수량

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Improvement and Validation of Convective Rainfall Rate Retrieved from Visible and Infrared Image Bands of the COMS Satellite (COMS 위성의 가시 및 적외 영상 채널로부터 복원된 대류운의 강우강도 향상과 검증)

  • Moon, Yun Seob;Lee, Kangyeol
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.37 no.7
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    • pp.420-433
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to improve the calibration matrixes of 2-D and 3-D convective rainfall rates (CRR) using the brightness temperature of the infrared $10.8{\mu}m$ channel (IR), the difference of brightness temperatures between infrared $10.8{\mu}m$ and vapor $6.7{\mu}m$ channels (IR-WV), and the normalized reflectance of the visible channel (VIS) from the COMS satellite and rainfall rate from the weather radar for the period of 75 rainy days from April 22, 2011 to October 22, 2011 in Korea. Especially, the rainfall rate data of the weather radar are used to validate the new 2-D and 3-DCRR calibration matrixes suitable for the Korean peninsula for the period of 24 rainy days in 2011. The 2D and 3D calibration matrixes provide the basic and maximum CRR values ($mm\;h^{-1}$) by multiplying the rain probability matrix, which is calculated by using the number of rainy and no-rainy pixels with associated 2-D (IR, IR-WV) and 3-D (IR, IR-WV, VIS) matrixes, by the mean and maximum rainfall rate matrixes, respectively, which is calculated by dividing the accumulated rainfall rate by the number of rainy pixels and by the product of the maximum rain rate for the calibration period by the number of rain occurrences. Finally, new 2-D and 3-D CRR calibration matrixes are obtained experimentally from the regression analysis of both basic and maximum rainfall rate matrixes. As a result, an area of rainfall rate more than 10 mm/h is magnified in the new ones as well as CRR is shown in lower class ranges in matrixes between IR brightness temperature and IR-WV brightness temperature difference than the existing ones. Accuracy and categorical statistics are computed for the data of CRR events occurred during the given period. The mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean squire error (RMSE) in new 2-D and 3-D CRR calibrations led to smaller than in the existing ones, where false alarm ratio had decreased, probability of detection had increased a bit, and critical success index scores had improved. To take into account the strong rainfall rate in the weather events such as thunderstorms and typhoon, a moisture correction factor is corrected. This factor is defined as the product of the total precipitable waterby the relative humidity (PW RH), a mean value between surface and 500 hPa level, obtained from a numerical model or the COMS retrieval data. In this study, when the IR cloud top brightness temperature is lower than 210 K and the relative humidity is greater than 40%, the moisture correction factor is empirically scaled from 1.0 to 2.0 basing on PW RH values. Consequently, in applying to this factor in new 2D and 2D CRR calibrations, the ME, MAE, and RMSE are smaller than the new ones.

Application of BASINS/WinHSPF for Pollutant Loading Estimation in Soyang Dam Watershed (소양강댐 유역의 오염부하량 산정을 위한 BASINS/WinHSPF 적용)

  • Yoon, Chun-Gyeong;Han, Jung-Yoon;Jung, Kwang-Wook;Jang, Jae-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.201-213
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    • 2007
  • In this study, the Batter Assessment Science Integrating point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS 3.0)/window interface to Hydrological Simulation Program-FPRTRAN (WinHSPF) was applied for assessment of Soyang Dam watershed. WinHSPF calibration was performed using monitoring data from 2000 to 2004 to simulate stream flow. Water quality (water temperature, DO, BOD, nitrate, total organic nitrogen, total nitrogen, total organic phosphorus and total phosphorus) was calibrated. Calibration results for dry-days and wet-days simulation were reasonably matched with observed data in stream flow, temperature, DO, BOD and nutrient simulation. Some deviation in the model results were caused by the lack of measured watershed data, hydraulic structure data and meteorological data. It was found that most of pollutant loading was contributed by nonpoint source pollution showing about $98.6%{\sim}99.0%$. The WinHSPF BMPRAC was applied to evaluate the water quality improvement. These scenarios included constructed wetland for controlling nonpoint source poilution and wet detention pond. The results illustrated that reasonably reduced pollutant loadin. Overall, BASINS/WinHSPF was found to be applicable and can be a powerful tool in pollutant loading and BMP efficiency estimation from the watershed.

Assessment of future climate and land use changes impact on hydrologic behavior in Anseong-cheon Gongdo urban-growing watershed (미래 기후변화와 토지이용변화가 안성천 공도 도시성장 유역의 수문에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Da Rae;Lee, Yong Gwan;Lee, Ji Wan;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.141-150
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the future hydrologic behavior affected by the potential climate and land use changes in upstream of Anseong-cheon watershed ($366.5km^2$) using SWAT. The HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used for 2030s (2020-2039) and 2050s (2040-2059) periods as the future climate change scenario. It was shown that maximum changes of precipitation ranged from -5.7% in 2030s to +18.5% in 2050s for RCP 4.5 scenarios and the temperature increased up to $1.8^{\circ}C$ and $2.6^{\circ}C$ in 2030s RCP 4.5 and 2050s 8.5 scenarios respectively based on baseline (1976-2005) period. The future land uses were predicted using the CLUE-s model by establishing logistic regression equation. The 2050 urban area were predicted to increase of 58.6% (29.0 to $46.0km^2$). The SWAT was calibrated and verified using 14 years (2002-2015) of daily streamflow with 0.86 and 0.76 Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) for stream flow (Q) and low flow 1/Q respectively focusing on 2 drought years (2014-2015) calibration. For future climate change only, the stream discharge showed maximum decrease of 24.2% in 2030s RCP 4.5 and turned to maximum increase of 10.9% in 2050s RCP 4.5 scenario compared with the baseline period stream discharge of 601.0 mm by the precipitation variation and gradual temperature increase. While considering both future climate and land use change, the stream discharge showed maximum decrease of 14.9% in 2030s RCP 4.5 and maximum increase of 19.5% in 2050s RCP 4.5 scenario by the urban growth and the related land use changes. The results supported that the future land use factor might be considered especially for having high potential urban growth within a watershed in the future climate change assessment.

Trophic State Characteristics in Topjeong Reservoir and Their Relations among Major Quality Parameters (탑정저수지의 부영양화 특성 및 주요 변수 간의 상호관계)

  • Park, Yu-Mi;Lee, Eui-Haeng;Lee, Sang-Jae;An, Kwang-Guk
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.382-393
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    • 2009
  • The objectives of this study were to characterize long-term annual and seasonal trophic state of Topjeong Reservoir using conventional variables of Trophic State Index (TSI) and to determine the empirical relations between the trophic parameters. For the analysis, we used water quality dataset of 1995$\sim$2007, which is obtained from the Ministry of Environment, Korea and the number of parameters was 9. Annual ambient mean values of TN and TP were 1.78 mg $L^{-1}$ and 0.03 mg $L^{-1}$, respectively and TN : TP ratios averaged 76, indicating that this system was nitrogen-rich hypertrophic, and was probably phosphorus-limitation for algal growth. Therefore, nitrogen varied little with seasons and years, and total phosphorus (TP) varied depending on season and year. Monsoon dilutions of TP occurred in August and monthly fluctuations of suspended solid (SS) was similar to those of chlorophyll-$\alpha$ (CHL). Annual mean values of BOD and $COD_{Mn}$ were 1.61 mg $L^{-1}$ and 4.23 mg $L^{-1}$, respectively and the interannual values were directly influenced by the intensity of annual rainfall. There were no significant differences in the trophic variables between the two sampling sites. Mean values of Trophic State Index (TSI, Carlson, 1977), based on TN, TP, CHL, and SD (Secchi depth), turned out as eutrophic state, except for the TN (hypertrophic). Regression analyses of log-transformed seasonal CHL against TP and TN showed that variation of the CHL was explained 37% by the variation of TP ($R^2$=0.37, p<0.001, r=0.616), but not by TN ($R^2$=0.03, p>0.05). Regression coefficient of $Log_{10}$CHL vs $Log_{10}SD$ was 0.330 (p<0.003, r=0.580), indicating that transparency is regulated by the organic matter in the system. Results, data suggest that one of the ways controlling the eutrophication would be a reduction of phosphorus from the watershed.

Vulnerability Assessment of Cultivation Facility by Abnormal Weather of Climate Change (이상기후에 의한 재배시설의 취약성 평가)

  • Yoon, Seong-Tak;Lee, Yong-Ho;Hong, Sun-Hee;Kim, Myung-Hyun;Kang, Kee-Kyung;Na, Young-Eun;Oh, Young-Ju
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.264-272
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    • 2013
  • Climate changes have caused not only changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, but also temperature and precipitation. The damages on agricultural production system will be increased by heavy rainfall and snow. In this study we assessed vulnerability of crop cultivation facility and animal husbandry facility by heavy rain in 232 agricultural districts. The climate data of 2000 years were used for vulnerability analysis on present status and the data derived from A1B scenario were used for the assessment in the years of 2020, 2050 and 2100, respectively. Vulnerability of local districts was evaluated by three indices such as climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and each index was determined from selected alternative variables. Collected data were normalized and then multiplied by weight value that was elicited in delphi investigation. Jeonla-do and Gangwon-do showed higher climate exposures than the other provinces. The higher sensitivity to abnormal weather was observed from the regions that have large-scale cultivation facility complex compared to the other regions and vulnerability to abnormal weather also was higher at these provinces. In the projected estimation based on the SRES A1B, the vulnerability of controlled agricultural facility in Korea totally increased, especially was dramatic between 2000's and 2020 year.

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Storage Behavior of Chungju and the Regulation Dams Using SWAT Model (SWAT을 이용한 기후변화가 충주댐 및 조정지댐 저수량에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Jeong, Hyeon Gyo;Kim, Seong-Joon;Ha, Rim
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.12
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    • pp.1235-1247
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    • 2013
  • This study is to evaluate the climate change impact on future storage behavior of Chungju dam($2,750{\times}10^6m^3$) and the regulation dam($30{\times}10^6m^3$) using SWAT(Soil Water Assessment Tool) model. Using 9 years data (2002~2010), the SWAT was calibrated and validated for streamflow at three locations with 0.73 average Nash-Sutcliffe model Efficiency (NSE) and for two reservoir water levels with 0.86 NSE respectively. For future evaluation, the HadCM3 of GCMs (General Circulation Models) data by scenarios of SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 and B1 of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted. The monthly temperature and precipitation data (2007~2099) were spatially corrected using 30 years (1977~2006, baseline period) of ground measured data through bias-correction, and temporally downscaled by Change Factor (CF) statistical method. For two periods; 2040s (2031~2050), 2080s (2071~2099), the future annual temperature were predicted to change $+0.9^{\circ}C$ in 2040s and $+4.0^{\circ}C$ in 2080s, and annual precipitation increased 9.6% in 2040s and 20.7% in 2080s respectively. The future watershed evapotranspiration increased up to 15.3% and the soil moisture decreased maximum 2.8% compared to baseline (2002~2010) condition. Under the future dam release condition of 9 years average (2002~2010) for each dam, the yearly dam inflow increased maximum 21.1% for most period except autumn. By the decrease of dam inflow in future autumn, the future dam storage could not recover to the full water level at the end of the year by the present dam release pattern. For the future flood and drought years, the temporal variation of dam storage became more unstable as it needs careful downward and upward management of dam storage respectively. Thus it is necessary to adjust the dam release pattern for climate change adaptation.

Bias Correction for GCM Long-term Prediction using Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (비정상성 분위사상법을 이용한 GCM 장기예측 편차보정)

  • Moon, Soojin;Kim, Jungjoong;Kang, Boosik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.8
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    • pp.833-842
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    • 2013
  • The quantile mapping is utilized to reproduce reliable GCM(Global Climate Model) data by correct systematic biases included in the original data set. This scheme, in general, projects the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the underlying data set into the target CDF assuming that parameters of target distribution function is stationary. Therefore, the application of stationary quantile mapping for nonstationary long-term time series data of future precipitation scenario computed by GCM can show biased projection. In this research the Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (NSQM) scheme was suggested for bias correction of nonstationary long-term time series data. The proposed scheme uses the statistical parameters with nonstationary long-term trends. The Gamma distribution was assumed for the object and target probability distribution. As the climate change scenario, the 20C3M(baseline scenario) and SRES A2 scenario (projection scenario) of CGCM3.1/T63 model from CCCma (Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis) were utilized. The precipitation data were collected from 10 rain gauge stations in the Han-river basin. In order to consider seasonal characteristics, the study was performed separately for the flood (June~October) and nonflood (November~May) seasons. The periods for baseline and projection scenario were set as 1973~2000 and 2011~2100, respectively. This study evaluated the performance of NSQM by experimenting various ways of setting parameters of target distribution. The projection scenarios were shown for 3 different periods of FF scenario (Foreseeable Future Scenario, 2011~2040 yr), MF scenario (Mid-term Future Scenario, 2041~2070 yr), LF scenario (Long-term Future Scenario, 2071~2100 yr). The trend test for the annual precipitation projection using NSQM shows 330.1 mm (25.2%), 564.5 mm (43.1%), and 634.3 mm (48.5%) increase for FF, MF, and LF scenarios, respectively. The application of stationary scheme shows overestimated projection for FF scenario and underestimated projection for LF scenario. This problem could be improved by applying nonstationary quantile mapping.

Changes in Methane Production in Coastal Mud Flat under Different Temperature and Salinity (온도 증가와 염도 감소에 따른 갯벌토양에서 메탄발생량의 변화)

  • Kim, Young Joo;Jung, Soo Hyun;Kang, Ho jeong
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.41-47
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    • 2006
  • Global climatic changes are expected to influence various biogeochemical processes in wetland ecosystems. In particular, coastal mud flat is anticipated to be affected directly by temperature increase as well as indirectly by a sea level rise and changes in precipitation. This study aimed to determine changes in methane production under different temperature and salinity by employing a laboratory-scale manipulation experiment. Soil samples were collected from a mud flat in Dong-Gum Kang-Hwa island in winter and two types of experiments were conducted. In the first experiment soil samples at 0-5 cm, 5-10 cm depth were incubated under same salinity with pore water and diluted salinity to 50 % of natural condition for 20 days and methane production was measured every other days. In the second experiment, soil samples at 5-10 cm depth were incubated in different temperature, $5^{\circ}C$ and $15^{\circ}C$, under same salinity conditions with first experiment for 31 days and methane production was measured. Results of the first experiment revealed that higher amount of methane was produced at 5-10 cm depth, and salinity effect was predominant at the end of the experiment. The second experiment showed that methane production was higher in $15^{\circ}C$ than $5^{\circ}C$. In addition, methane production was higher when sea water diluted to 50 % compared to control. Global climatic changes are expected to influence various biogeochemical processes in wetland ecosystems. In particular, coastal mud flat is anticipated to be affected directly by temperature increase as well as indirectly by a sea level rise and changes in precipitation. This study aimed to determine changes in methane production under different temperature and salinity by employing a laboratory-scale manipulation experiment. Soil samples were collected from a mud flat in Dong-Gum Kang-Hwa island in winter and two types of experiments were conducted. In the first experiment soil samples at 0-5 cm, 5-10 cm depth were incubated under same salinity with pore water and diluted salinity to 50 % of natural condition for 20 days and methane production was measured every other days. In the second experiment, soil samples at 5-10 cm depth were incubated in different temperature, $5^{\circ}C$ and $15^{\circ}C$, under same salinity conditions with first experiment for 31 days and methane production was measured. Results of the first experiment revealed that higher amount of methane was produced at 5-10 cm depth, and salinity effect was predominant at the end of the experiment. The second experiment showed that methane production was higher in $15^{\circ}C$ than $5^{\circ}C$. In addition, methane production was higher when sea water diluted to 50 % compared to control. These results suggest that methane production is highly influenced by changes in temperature and salinity in coastal mud flat. And that global climatic change may induce biological feedback by affecting production of another greenhouse gas, namely methane from coastal mud flat.

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Comprehensive Review on the Implications of Extreme Weather Characteristics to Stormwater Nature-based Solutions (자연기반해법을 적용한 그린인프라 시설의 극한기후 영향 사례분석)

  • Miguel Enrico L. Robles;Franz Kevin F. Geronimo;Chiny C. Vispo;Haque Md Tashdedul;Minsu Jeon;Lee-Hyung Kim
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.353-365
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    • 2023
  • The effects of climate change on green infrastructure and environmental media remain uncertain and context-specific despite numerous climate projections globally. In this study, the extreme weather conditions in seven major cities in South Korea were characterized through statistical analysis of 20-year daily meteorological data extracted fro m the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Additionally, the impacts of extreme weather on Nature-based Solutions (NbS) were determined through a comprehensive review. The results of the statistical analysis and comprehensive review revealed the studied cities are potentially vulnerable to varying extreme weather conditions, depending on geographic location, surface imperviousness, and local weather patterns. Temperature extremes were seen as potential threats to the resilience of NbS in Seoul, as both the highest maximum and lowest minimum temperatures were observed in the mentioned city. Moreover, extreme values for precipitation and maximum wind speed were observed in cities from the southern part of South Korea, particularly Busan, Ulsan, and Jeju. It was also found that extremely low temperatures induce the most impact on the resilience of NbS and environmental media. Extremely cold conditions were identified to reduce the pollutant removal efficiency of biochar, sand, gravel, and woodchip, as well as the nutrient uptake capabilities of constructed wetlands (CWs). In response to the negative impacts of extreme weather on the effectiveness of NbS, several adaptation strategies, such as the addition of shading and insulation systems, were also identified in this study. The results of this study are seen as beneficial to improving the resilience of NbS in South Korea and other locations with similar climate characteristics.

Applications of Radiocarbon Isotope Ratios in Environmental Sciences in South Korea (방사성탄소동위원소비 분석을 적용한 우리나라 환경과학 연구)

  • Neung-Hwan Oh;Ji-Yeon Cha
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.281-302
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    • 2023
  • Carbon is not only an essential element for life but also a key player in climate change. The radiocarbon (14C) analysis using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) is a powerful tool not only to understand the carbon cycle but also to track pollutants derived from fossil carbon, which have a distinct radiocarbon isotope ratio (Δ14C). Many studies have reported Δ14C of carbon compounds in streams, rivers, rain, snow, throughfall, fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and wastewater treatment plant effluents in South Korea, which are reviewed in this manuscript. In summary, (1) stream and river carbon in South Korea are largely derived from the chemical weathering of soils and rocks, and organic compounds in plants and soils, strongly influenced by precipitation, wastewater treatment effluents, agricultural land use, soil water, and groundwater. (2) Unprecedentedly high Δ14C of precipitation during winter has been reported, which can directly and indirectly influence stream and river carbon. Although we cannot exclude the possibility of local contamination sources of high Δ14C, the results suggest that stream dissolved organic carbon could be older than previously thought, warranting future studies. (3) The 14C analysis has also been applied to quantify the sources of forest throughfall and PM2.5, providing new insights. The 14C data on a variety of ecosystems will be valuable not only to track the pollutants derived from fossil carbon but also to improve our understanding of climate change and provide solutions.