Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.12.1235

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Storage Behavior of Chungju and the Regulation Dams Using SWAT Model  

Jeong, Hyeon Gyo (River Information Center, Han River Flood Control Office)
Kim, Seong-Joon (Dept. of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Konkuk University)
Ha, Rim (Dept. of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Konkuk University, College of Life & Environmental Sciences, Konkuk Univ.)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.46, no.12, 2013 , pp. 1235-1247 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study is to evaluate the climate change impact on future storage behavior of Chungju dam($2,750{\times}10^6m^3$) and the regulation dam($30{\times}10^6m^3$) using SWAT(Soil Water Assessment Tool) model. Using 9 years data (2002~2010), the SWAT was calibrated and validated for streamflow at three locations with 0.73 average Nash-Sutcliffe model Efficiency (NSE) and for two reservoir water levels with 0.86 NSE respectively. For future evaluation, the HadCM3 of GCMs (General Circulation Models) data by scenarios of SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 and B1 of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted. The monthly temperature and precipitation data (2007~2099) were spatially corrected using 30 years (1977~2006, baseline period) of ground measured data through bias-correction, and temporally downscaled by Change Factor (CF) statistical method. For two periods; 2040s (2031~2050), 2080s (2071~2099), the future annual temperature were predicted to change $+0.9^{\circ}C$ in 2040s and $+4.0^{\circ}C$ in 2080s, and annual precipitation increased 9.6% in 2040s and 20.7% in 2080s respectively. The future watershed evapotranspiration increased up to 15.3% and the soil moisture decreased maximum 2.8% compared to baseline (2002~2010) condition. Under the future dam release condition of 9 years average (2002~2010) for each dam, the yearly dam inflow increased maximum 21.1% for most period except autumn. By the decrease of dam inflow in future autumn, the future dam storage could not recover to the full water level at the end of the year by the present dam release pattern. For the future flood and drought years, the temporal variation of dam storage became more unstable as it needs careful downward and upward management of dam storage respectively. Thus it is necessary to adjust the dam release pattern for climate change adaptation.
Keywords
dam operation; HadCM3 scenarios; SWAT; future dam inflow; dam storage;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 6  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Alcamo, J., Doll, P., Kaspar, F., and Siebert, S. (1997). Global change and global scenarios ofwater use and availability: an application of WaterGAP 1.0. Report A9701, Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany.
2 Chung, G.H., Ryu, G.H., and Kim, J.H. (2010). "Optimization of Multi-reservoir Operation considering Water Demand Uncertainty in the Han River Basin." Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, KOSHAM, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 89-102.   과학기술학회마을
3 Diaz-nieto, J., and Wilby, R.L. (2005). "A comparison of statistical downscaling and climate change factor methods impacts on low flows in the River Thames." Climatic Change, Vol. 69, pp. 245-268.   DOI   ScienceOn
4 Kwadijk, J., and Rotmans, J. (1995). "The impact of climate change on the discharge of the river. Rhine: a scenario study." Climate Change, Vol. 30, pp. 397-426.   DOI   ScienceOn
5 Lee, Y.J., Park, M.J., Park, K,W., and Kim, S.J. (2008). "Analysis of Hydrologic Behavior Including Agricultural Reservoir Operation using SWAT Model." Journal of Korea Association of Geographic Information Studies, KAGIS, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 20-30.   과학기술학회마을
6 Lim, H.J., Kwon, H.J., Bae, D.H., and Kim, S.J. (2006). "Analysis of Hydrological Impact using Climate Change Scenarios and the CA-Markov Technique on Soyanggang-dam watershed." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 39, No. 5, pp. 453-466.   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
7 Nash, J.E., and Sutcliffe, J.E. (1970). "River flow forecasting through conceptual models, Part I-A discussion of principles." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 282-290.   DOI   ScienceOn
8 Park, G.A., Ahn, S.R., Lee, Y.J. Shin, H.J., Park, M.J., and Kim, S.J. (2009). "Assessment Of Climate Change Impact On The Inflow And Outflow Of Two Agricultural Reservoirs In Korea." Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, ASABE, Vol. 52, No. 6, pp. 1869-1883.
9 Park, G.A., Ahn, S.R., Park, M.J., and Kim, S.J. (2010). "Assessment of the Contribution of Weather, Vegetation and Land Use Change for Agricultural Reservoir and Stream Watershed using the SLURP model(II)-Calibration, Validation and Application of the Model-." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, KSCE, Vol. 30, No. 2B, pp. 121-135.   과학기술학회마을
10 Park, J.Y., Park, M.J., Ahn, S.R., and Kim, S.J. (2009). "Watershed Modeling for Assessing Climate Change Impact on Stream Water Quality of Chungju Dam Watershed." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 42, No. 10, pp. 877-889.   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
11 Park, M.J., Park, G.A., and Kim, S.J. (2007). "Analysis of Hydrologic Behavior of SLURP Model Including Agricultural Reservoir Operation." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, KSCE, Vol. 27, No. 5B, pp. 515-523.   과학기술학회마을
12 Park, M.J., Shin, H.J., Park, G.A., and Kim, S.J. (2010). "Assessment of future hydrological behavior of Soyanggang Dam watershed using SWAT." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, KSCE, Vol. 30, No. 4B, pp. 337-346.   과학기술학회마을
13 Saxton, K.E., Rawls, W.J., Romberger, J.S., and Papendick, R.I. (1986). Estimating generalized soil-water characteristics from texture. Soil Science Society of America Journal, Vol. 50, No. 4, pp. 1031-1036.   DOI   ScienceOn
14 Wilby, R.L., and Harris, I. (2006). "A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: Low-flow scenarios for the River Thames." Water Resources Research, Vol. 42, pp. 1-10.