• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예산 추정

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The Estimation of Domestic Construction Technology Full-Text Services using Tobit Model (Tobit 모형을 이용한 국내 건설기술 원문서비스 가치 추정)

  • Jeong, Seong-Yun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.656-662
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    • 2016
  • We have provided a variety of domestic construction technology related full-text services through the Construction Technology Digital Library system since 2001. CODIL is a system that services the database related to construction technology data. On the other hand, there is growing demand for DB every year, but the required budget is shrinking. Therefore, this study investigated the satisfaction to effectively service the construction technique-related full-text with a limited budget. The monetary value of full-text to express satisfaction with the quantified value was estimated using the Tobit model. The Tobit model is used as a contingent valuation method to estimate the value of non-market goods. This model is the limited dependent variable regression model to observations by censoring the limit of the left side or right side so that a biased outlier is not reflected in the willingness to pay. A survey was conducted by sampling 312 respondents. The mean, median, truncating the willingness of payment were calculated for the six types of the full-text services using the Tobit model. The statistically significant variables affecting the willingness to pay for the full-text services were identified. The mean value of per the full-text service was estimated to be 46,530 won. The significance of this study was to use the Tobit model to estimate the value of the construction technology-related full-text services for the first time in Korea.

Overview of Korean Broadcasting Equipment Market (방송장비산업의 현황 및 전망)

  • Kim, S.M.;Park, K.M.;Koh, S.J.
    • Electronics and Telecommunications Trends
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.111-121
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    • 2011
  • 급변하는 디지털방송 시장 환경과 향상된 국내 디지털방송 기술을 고려할 때, 국내 방송장비산업을 육성할 수 있는 좋은 기회들이 다가오고 있으나 실효성 높은 방송장비 육성정책을 마련하기 위한 체계적인 연구가 제대로 마련되어 있지 않은 상황이다. 본 연구는 이러한 방송장비산업에 대한 체계적인 연구를 위한 첫 걸음으로 방송장비산업의 범위를 정하고 분류체계를 구성하였으며, 이를 기반으로 방송장비 보유 현황 및 국산화율을 파악하였다. 방송장비는 170여 개의 다양한 품목을 4대 분류, 23개의 중분류로 나누었다. 이들 장비 중 영상장비들의 보유비중 및 보유대수는 높으나 국산장비 이용률은 매우 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 품목별로는 호환성, 예산규모, 장비대당 가격, 핵심장비의 기준에서 중요한 품목들이 제조사들의 주요 생산장비에는 속하지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 시장규모 추정 결과, 그간 별로 논의되지 않았던 비방송사의 방송장비 투자규모와 수입규모가 매우 큰 것으로 추정되었다.

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Enhanced Earned Value management Model for Estimating the Project Ending time. (프로젝트 종료시점 예측을 위한 기성고 분석 방법 보완 모델)

  • Lee, Joo-Yeon;Cho, Eun-Ae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.155-159
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    • 2007
  • S/W 개발 프로젝트의 품질, 비용, 개발 기간을 잘 관리하여 프로젝트를 성공시키기 위해 PM 은 프로젝트의 종료시점과 예산의 초과를 예측할 수 있어야 한다. PMBOK 의 비용관리의 Earned Value Method 는 프로젝트의 진행에 따른 생산성의 변화와 그에 따른 비용과 일정의 증가 추정에 대한 규칙을 제시한다. 그러나 EVM 은 제조공정에서는 그 효과를 증명하였지만, S/W 프로젝트에서는 적용이 힘들어 잘 활용되고 있지 않다. 이는 사람이 주요 자원인 S/W 프로젝트에서는 Actual Cost 의 측정이 쉽지 않기 때문이다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 S/W 프로젝트 관리에서 Earned Value 의 측정이 쉽지 않아 추정되기 힘든 지연된 종료 시점에 대한 예측을 PMBOK 과 CMMI 에서 제시하는 관리 영역과의 연관성을 활용하고, EVM 을 보완하여 지연에 대한 예측모델을 만들어보고자 한다.

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Prioritization of National R&D Investment Using Estimation Results by CGE Model (CGE모형 추정결과를 이용한 국가 R&D 투자 우선순위 설정)

  • Lim, Byung-In;Ahn, Seung-Ku
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.57-83
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    • 2011
  • We suggested industry-specific priorities of R&D investment with R&D investment elasticity to GDP calculated from the ripple effect of 28 large-sized industry R&D investment, using a Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) Model. Priority orders apply to only 12 industries, because 16 industries with less than 1% of total investment have been excluded. First, R&D investment elasticity to GDP says that priorities are ordered as Basic metal products, Chemicals, drugs and medicines, Food, beverages and tobacco products, Electronic and electrical equipment, Transportation equipment, Precision instruments, Electrictity, gas, steam and water supply, General machinery and equipment, Communications and broadcasting, Construction, Other services, and Real estate and business services. These priorities show the status quo of Korean industry structures well. The GDP growth rate to 2030 year reference equilibrium, which is an auxiliary index, says a similar priority to results from R&D investment elasticity to GDP. In the end, two criteria of priority order can be functioned as a good index for National Science and Technology Commission deciding what industry to invest and what budget to allocate.

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Prediction of Life Expectancy of Asphalt Road Pavement by Region (아스팔트 도로포장의 균열률에 대한 지역별 기대수명 추정)

  • Song, Hyun Yeop;Choi, Seung Hyun;Han, Dae Seok;Do, Myung Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.417-428
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    • 2021
  • Since future maintenance cost estimation of infrastructure involves uncertainty, it is important to make use of a failure prediction model. However, it is difficult for local governments to develop accurate failure prediction models applicable to infrastructure due to a lack of budget and expertise. Therefore, this study estimated the life expectancy of asphalt road pavement of national highways using the Bayesian Markov Mixture Hazard model. In addition, in order to accurately estimate life expectancy, environmental variables such as traffic volume, ESAL (Equivalent Single Axle Loads), SNP (Structural Number of Pavement), meteorological conditions, and de-icing material usage were applied to retain reliability of the estimation results. As a result, life expectancy was estimated from at least 13.09 to 19.61 years by region. By using this approach, it is expected that it will be possible to estimate future maintenance cost considering local failure characteristics.

A Study on Estimating the Optimum Proportion and Size of Basic Research Budget from an Economic Point of View (경제적 관점에서 본 기초연구예산의 적정 투자 비중과 규모 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Pak, Cheolmin;Ku, Bonchul
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.51-82
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    • 2017
  • In terms of both economic growth and social welfare, this paper discusses the optimal proportion and size of basic research budget by adding knowledge stock to an endogenous growth model. On the basis of the modified endogenous growth model, this paper derived an equation that consists of kinds of parameters and suggested this equation as a criterion for determining whether allocated basic research budget has been appropriate. This paper also found that the theoretical optimal ratio between government investment spending and investment in basic research is equal to the ratio between the partial elasticity of output with respect of public capital stock and the partial elasticity of output with respect of knowledge stock. In addition, after the required parameters were specified based on precedent literatures, this paper estimated an optimum size of the basic research budget using the theoretical optimal ratio with official statistical records and compared the estimated size to its actual size. This paper therefore is expected to contribute to budget planning and allocation regarding establishing basic research policy, because the results of this paper presents a useful criterion for optimum level and an approximate size of investment in basic research. However, it should be noted that although the optimal solution is optimal in a economic sense, it may not be the best solution from a practical perspective.

An Empirical Study on the Effect of public Construction Industry by Expansion of New Budget System (계속비 사업 확대로 인한 공공건설사업 파급효과 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Bum;Lee, Jeong-Dae;Cho, Ji-Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.153-163
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    • 2008
  • Domestic construction industry accounts about 15% of Gross Domestic Product(GDP) and Korean government spends approximately 50 trillion won per year for public infrastructure projects. Effective management of public construction projects would result in cost saving and enhance financial stability of the government. In doing so, the government promoted a new budgeting system, Continual Budget Method(CBM) as a part of public project performance enhancement program published in 1999. This research mainly attempted to investigate and analyze the impact of new budgeting in term of cost and schedule performance. Based on the analysis result of n2 projects. The new budgeting system could save project cost by 9.83y. Due to the saving of indirect costs from reduction. Although limited government budget cannot allow all the projects to be excuted with the new budgeting system, the new budgeting system should be more-widely utilized in the public sector because of its proven benefits from this research.

국가연구개발사업 사업단 현황 및 운영실태 분석

  • Hong, Jeong-Seok;Sim, Jin-Gyeong;Lee, Sang-Hyeon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.115-128
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    • 2017
  • 국가연구개발사업은 35개 부처, 약 18.9조 원(미래부 KISTEP, 2016)에 달하며, 이러한 규모의 R&D 활동을 위해 대부분의 국가연구개발사업은 연구관리전문기관에 의한 위탁관리 형태로 추진되고 있다. 위탁관리 형태 중 하나로 볼 수 있는 사업단은 신규 대형 사업의 경우 거의 관행적으로 설립하는 경향이 있어 그 수가 증가 중인 것으로 추정되나, 그나마 드물게 수행되고 있는 국가연구개발사업 관리체계에 대한 조사나 정책 수립은 연구관리전문기관 위주로 이루어지고 있다. 이에 따라 국가연구개발사업에서 주요한 역할을 수행 중인 사업단의 현황과 운영 실태를 파악하고자 사업단의 설립형태와 기능 등 설치현황, 운영비와 인력 등 운영현황, 사업단 운영의 애로사항 등을 조사 분석 하였다. 2014년 기준으로 조사가 가능한 사업단은 모두 63개였으며, 사업단 총 인력규모와 관리하는 사업의 전체 예산 규모는 연구관리혁신협의회 11개 회원 연구관리전문기관 대비 인력규모는 2번째(17.8%), 예산은 5번째(8%) 수준이었다. 사업단의 독립법인 여부, 연구수행 여부 등 형태 기능의 특징은 다양하게 나타났으며, 사업단 기획평가관리비는 평균 5.6억 원으로 사업비 대비 비중의 평균은 6.3% 수준이었다. 사업단 운영의 애로사항으로는 계획된 예산의 적기 지원과 운영비 규정의 혼란 등이 대표적으로 도출되었다. 본고에서는 그간 선행연구와 조사 분석이 거의 이루어지지 않았던 국가연구개발사업 사업단에 대한 기본적인 실태와 현황, 이들이 직면하고 있는 다양한 문제점과 애로사항에 대해 파악하였다. 조사 분석 결과 효과적인 사업단 설립과 운영을 위해서는 적절한 가이드라인과 제도개선이 필요할 것으로 보인다. 다양한 사업단 운영 사례 분석과 연구를 통해 효율적인 사업단 조직체계와 설립형태, 적절한 운영비 제도 등을 제시해 줄 수 있다면 향후 사업단 체제와 대형 국가연구개발사업의 효과적인 추진과 관리에 도움이 될 것이다.

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Cost prediction model of Public Multi-housing Projects in Schematic Design Phase (공공아파트 계획설계단계에서의 공사비 예측모델)

  • Kwon, Ho-Suk;Moon, Hyun-Seok;Lee, Sung-Kyun;Hong, Tae-Hoon;Koo, Kyo-Jin;Hyun, Chang-Taek
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2008
  • Public institutions recognize the importance of cost management from the planning stage but they do not have an organized construction cost estimation and management system. Thus, at the stage of planning a new public construction project and estimating the cost, those in charge of budgeting estimate construction cost based on existing data and experiences, compare construction cost estimated after the basic design stage and the execution design stage with budgets, and then decide whether to continue the project or change the design according to the budgets. Therefore, we would develop the cost prediction model through regression analysis that can predict construction cost in Schematic Design Phase of the Public Multi-Family housing. Accordingly, if public institutions have a construction cost prediction model and management system that can estimate the optimum construction cost, they can make and execute budgets in a more efficient way than they do at present.

Study on Temporal Comparison Analysis of Factors to Affect Travel Time Budget: A Case for Seoul (통행시간예산에 미치는 요인의 시계열적 비교·분석 연구: 서울시를 사례로)

  • Lee, Hyangsook;Choo, Sangho
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.180-191
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzes factors that affect average daily travel time budgets, using the Time Use Survey data from 1999 to 2014 in Seoul. We first developed multivariate regression models for travel time from each year, considering demographic and socio-economic variables as well as non-home activity time. The model results showed that household and personal characteristics and non-home activities significantly affect travel time, and their effects are different over time. In addition, we developed seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models for time allocation for non-home activity and travel, considering their correlations, and explanatory variables were compared over time. Overall, demographic and socio-economic variables significantly affect travel time as well as non-home activity time.