• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.35-47
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• 2020

Box-office prediction is important to movie stakeholders. It is necessary to accurately predict box-office and select important variables. In this paper, we propose a multivariate time series classification and important variable selection method to improve accuracy of predicting the box-office. As a research method, we collected daily data from KOBIS and NAVER for South Korean movies, selected important variables using Random Forest and predicted multivariate time series using Deep Learning. Based on the Korean screen quota system, Deep Learning was used to compare the accuracy of box-office predictions on the 73^rd day from movie release with the important variables and entire variables, and the results was tested whether they are statistically significant. As a Deep Learning model, Multi-Layer Perceptron, Fully Convolutional Neural Networks, and Residual Network were used. Among the Deep Learning models, the model using important variables and Residual Network had the highest prediction accuracy at 93%.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.67-83
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• 2018

The Korean film industry with significant increase every year exceeded the number of cumulative audiences of 200 million people in 2013 finally. However, starting from 2015 the Korean film industry entered a period of low growth and experienced a negative growth after all in 2016. To overcome such difficulty, stakeholders like production company, distribution company, multiplex have attempted to maximize the market returns using strategies of predicting change of market and of responding to such market change immediately. Since a film is classified as one of experiential products, it is not easy to predict a box office record and the initial number of audiences before the film is released. And also, the number of audiences fluctuates with a variety of factors after the film is released. So, the production company and distribution company try to be guaranteed the number of screens at the opining time of a newly released by multiplex chains. However, the multiplex chains tend to open the screening schedule during only a week and then determine the number of screening of the forthcoming week based on the box office record and the evaluation of audiences. Many previous researches have conducted to deal with the prediction of box office records of films. In the early stage, the researches attempted to identify factors affecting the box office record. And nowadays, many studies have tried to apply various analytic techniques to the factors identified previously in order to improve the accuracy of prediction and to explain the effect of each factor instead of identifying new factors affecting the box office record. However, most of previous researches have limitations in that they used the total number of audiences from the opening to the end as a target variable, and this makes it difficult to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to predict the weekly number of audiences of a newly released film so that the stakeholder can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film. To that end, we considered the factors used in the previous studies affecting box office and developed new factors not used in previous studies such as the order of opening of movies, dynamics of sales. Along with the comprehensive factors, we used the machine learning method such as Random Forest, Multi Layer Perception, Support Vector Machine, and Naive Bays, to predict the number of cumulative visitors from the first week after a film release to the third week. At the point of the first and the second week, we predicted the cumulative number of visitors of the forthcoming week for a released film. And at the point of the third week, we predict the total number of visitors of the film. In addition, we predicted the total number of cumulative visitors also at the point of the both first week and second week using the same factors. As a result, we found the accuracy of predicting the number of visitors at the forthcoming week was higher than that of predicting the total number of them in all of three weeks, and also the accuracy of the Random Forest was the highest among the machine learning methods we used. This study has implications in that this study 1) considered various factors comprehensively which affect the box office record and merely addressed by other previous researches such as the weekly rating of audiences after release, the weekly rank of the film after release, and the weekly sales share after release, and 2) tried to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically by suggesting models which predicts the weekly number of audiences of newly released films so that the stakeholders can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film.

• Cartoon and Animation Studies
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• s.31
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• pp.227-248
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• 2013

With the advancement of computers, opening title sequences in movies are continuously improving. Initially, titles and opening credits were created using what is called the optical method, whereby text was photographed on separate film and then copied onto the movies film negative. In contemporary movie making, however, the title sequence may be seamlessly integrated into the beginning of the movie by an insertion method that not only allows for more diverse technical expression, including the use of both 2D and 3D graphics, but also for its emergence as an independent art form. As such a title sequence, in as little as 50 seconds or up to 10 minutes, is able to convey the films concept while also suggesting more implicit intricacies of plot and thereby eliciting greater interest in the movie. Moreover, according to the directors intent and for a variety of purposes, the title sequence, while maintaining its autonomy, is inseparable from the movie as an organic whole; therefore, it is possible to create works that are highly original in nature. The purpose of this study is to analyze the kinetic typography that appears in title sequences of ten films produced by the Korean entertainment industry in 2012. Production techniques are analyzed in a variety of ways in order to predict the future direction of opening title sequences, as well as present aesthetic and technical models for their creation.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.49-65
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• 2014

Word of Mouth (WOM) is a behavior used by consumers to transfer or communicate their product or service experience to other consumers. Due to the popularity of social media such as Facebook, Twitter, blogs, and online communities, electronic WOM (e-WOM) has become important to the success of products or services. As a result, most enterprises pay close attention to e-WOM for their products or services. This is especially important for movies, as these are experiential products. This paper aims to identify the network factors of an online movie community that impact box office revenue using social network analysis. In addition to traditional WOM factors (volume and valence of WOM), network centrality measures of the online community are included as influential factors in box office revenue. Based on previous research results, we develop five hypotheses on the relationships between potential influential factors (WOM volume, WOM valence, degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality) and box office revenue. The first hypothesis is that the accumulated volume of WOM in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The second hypothesis is that the accumulated valence of WOM in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The third hypothesis is that the average of degree centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The fourth hypothesis is that the average of betweenness centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The fifth hypothesis is that the average of betweenness centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. To verify our research model, we collect movie review data from the Internet Movie Database (IMDb), which is a representative online movie community, and movie revenue data from the Box-Office-Mojo website. The movies in this analysis include weekly top-10 movies from September 1, 2012, to September 1, 2013, with in total. We collect movie metadata such as screening periods and user ratings; and community data in IMDb including reviewer identification, review content, review times, responder identification, reply content, reply times, and reply relationships. For the same period, the revenue data from Box-Office-Mojo is collected on a weekly basis. Movie community networks are constructed based on reply relationships between reviewers. Using a social network analysis tool, NodeXL, we calculate the averages of three centralities including degree, betweenness, and closeness centrality for each movie. Correlation analysis of focal variables and the dependent variable (final revenue) shows that three centrality measures are highly correlated, prompting us to perform multiple regressions separately with each centrality measure. Consistent with previous research results, our regression analysis results show that the volume and valence of WOM are positively related to the final box office revenue of movies. Moreover, the averages of betweenness centralities from initial community networks impact the final movie revenues. However, both of the averages of degree centralities and closeness centralities do not influence final movie performance. Based on the regression results, three hypotheses, 1, 2, and 4, are accepted, and two hypotheses, 3 and 5, are rejected. This study tries to link the network structure of e-WOM on online product communities with the product's performance. Based on the analysis of a real online movie community, the results show that online community network structures can work as a predictor of movie performance. The results show that the betweenness centralities of the reviewer community are critical for the prediction of movie performance. However, degree centralities and closeness centralities do not influence movie performance. As future research topics, similar analyses are required for other product categories such as electronic goods and online content to generalize the study results.

• Design Convergence Study
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.195-214
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• 2016

Predictive analysis is based on a probabilistic learning algorithm called pattern recognition or machine learning. Therefore, if users want to extract more information from the data, they are required high statistical knowledge. In addition, it is difficult to find out data pattern and characteristics of the data. This study conducted statistical data analyses and visual data analyses to supplement prediction analysis's weakness. Through this study, we could find some implications that haven't been found in the previous studies. First, we could find data pattern when adjust data selection according as splitting criteria for the decision tree method. Second, we could find what type of data included in the final prediction model. We found some implications that haven't been found in the previous studies from the results of statistical and visual analyses. In statistical analysis we found relation among the multivariable and deducted prediction model to predict high box office performance. In visualization analysis we proposed visual analysis method with various interactive functions. Finally through this study we verified final prediction model and suggested analysis method extract variety of information from the data.

• Journal of Digital Contents Society
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.401-410
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• 2013

A big success of the 3D film 'Avatar' in 2009 opened a full-fledged 3D movie era. A new industrial possibility of 3D contents was predicted in Korea and then the support for 3D contents production took placed via various media platforms. Korean government also announced the new development policies with a focus on 3D content. However, the 3D content industry has not been activated. Therefore, in this study by applying AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) method we tried to grasp the reason of the deactivation of 3D content industry through analyzing the relative importance rate of three research factors(content aspects, technical aspects, and policy aspects) that were mainly considered to activate the industry. The results of this study showed that the relative importance rate of content aspects was higher than that of technical aspects and policy aspects. It means the lack of 3D contents is one of main reason causing the delay of 3D industrial activation. And it also showed that the relief of human factors such as visual fatigue evaluated as a sub-factors of technical aspects are challenges to be solved soon..

• Korea Science and Art Forum
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• v.29
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• pp.279-292
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• 2017

This study was started by recognizing that visual storytelling(VST) is an important factor that determines the success of the work. The goal of this study is to analyze the VST study approaching from the narrative and visual dimension by analyzing the conflict intensity and VST factor. Therefore, in this paper, we analyzed the conflicts of the theater animation(4) that succeeded in the worldwide success and attempted the VST interpretation by approaching it technically. The results and contents of the study are as follows. Firstly, based on the narrative theory of Sung bong-Sun and Robert McKee, we classified the conflict scenes and found the kinds of conflicts. In addition, based on the 5B model, a total of 108 conflict shots were extracted. Secondly, through expert experiment, we found the conflict intensity of conflict shots. Thirdly, the visual elements of fifteen significant conflicts were extracted from internal and super individual conflicts. Fourth, as a result of the experiment, it was confirmed that the reliability of the visual elements in the inner and super personal conflicts was in the range of 100-83.33%, and the frequency of usage was found to be widely distributed in 5.88-70.59% and 5-70%. This means that the VST expression, which relied on the sense of the artist, can be engineered. Finally, I expect that it will be the basis of the development of the VST Tool which can predict the conflict expression of the work in the animation pre - production stage successfully.