• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.1-23
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• 2009

This paper uses a survey data to analyze the age-specific fertility rates, age-specific cumulative fertility rates, and ages of marriage of the five birth cohorts of Korean women born in the 1940s and thereafter. It was found that later cohorts reach their highest age-specific fertility rate at higher ages than earlier cohorts. The age-specific cumulative fertility rates of the 1950s and 1960 cohorts were found to be much lower than those of the immediately preceding cohorts, while those of the 1970s and 1980s cohorts were not different from those of the 1960s cohorts. Women belonging to later cohorts were found to get married at relatively higher ages. The estimation results of the hazard model show that women belonging to later cohorts and those with more schooling have a tendency to get married at higher ages. The effect of the birth cohorts is thought to be due to the economic, social, and cultural changes in Korea during the late 50 years or so. The time interval between a woman‘s marriage and first birth was found not to be affected by either the year of marriage or that of her birth. Also, those who remained employed for some time around their marriage and those with low schooling were found to have a lower first child birth hazard, which implies that married women’s employment status and family income play an important role in their decisions on childbirth.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.75-95
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• 2011

A birth cohort approach to the Household life-cycle model could be an alternative to cross-sectional data. In this study, each residential mobilities of birth cohorts' is traced by the cohort data from repeated cross-section in the case of Jinju city. Because of the differences in fertilities by era, the volume of each cohort as a consumer in housing has varied and the condition of housing stock also has changed as the time goes by. These changes in housing make not only age effect stressed in Rossi's model, but also cohort and period effect. Due to theses effects of time, every residential mobility trajectories of generations' is different especially in earlier life stages. As households get older, it is found that the age effect reduces and the probability of residential mobility is lower. As this result, the residential succession and filtering between the earlier and latter generations is weakened and the residential segregation could be happened by birth cohort.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.53-88
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• 2006

The major aim of this paper is to develop a hypothetical set of age-specific fertility rates which are logically derived and reasonably accurate in the projection of future population. The first procedure is to select a generalized log-gamma distribution model, which includes Coale-McNeil nuptiality model, in order to estimate and project a set of age-specific fertility rates by birth cohort and birth order. The second is to apply the log-gamma model with an empirical adjustment to the actual data to estimate and project the future fertility rates for relatively young birth cohorts who did not complete their reproductive career. This study reconstructs or translates a set of cohort age-specific fertility rates into a set of period age-specific fertility rates which must be hypothesized in order to establish the broader framework of future population projection. For example, the fertility at age 20 in the year of 2020 is the fertility at age 20 for the cohort born in 1990, while the fertility at age 21 in the year of 2020 is the fertility at 21 for the cohort born in 1989. In turn, once a set of age-specific fertility rates for the cohorts who were born up to the year of 2010, it is possible for one to establish an hypothetical set of period age-specific fertility rates which will be needed to project the future population until the year of 2055. The difference in the hypothetical system of age-specific fertility rates between this study and the 2005 special population projection comes from the fact that the fertility estimation/projection model used in this study was skillfully exploited to reflect better actual trend of fertility decline caused by rise in marriage age and increasing proportion of those who remain single until their end of reproduction. In this regard, this paper argues that the set of age-specific fertility rates derived from this study is more logical and reasonably accurate than the set of those used for the 2005 special projection. In the population projection, however, the fundamental issue of the hypothetical setting of age-specific fertility rates in relation to the fertility estimation/projection model is about how skillfully one can handle the period effects. It is not easy for one to completely cope with the problem of period effects except for the a minor period adjustment based on recent actual data, along with the given framework of a cohort-based fertility estimation/projection model.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.347-373
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• 2021

Over the past 50 years, explorative research on the nation's mortality decline patterns has showed a decrease in age-specific mortality rates in all age groups, but there were different improvement patterns in specific mortality rates depending on ages and periods. Greater distinct improvement was observed in mortality rates among women than men, and there was a noticeable improvement in mortality rates in certain groups especially in the more recent decades, revealing a structural change in the overall trends regarding death periods. In this paper, we compare various stochastic mortality models considering cohort effects for mortality projection using Korean female mortality data and further explore the uncertainty related to projection. It also created age-specific mortality rates and life expectancy for women until 2067 based on the results of the analysis, and compared them with future age-specific mortality rates and life expectancy provided by the national statistical office (KOISIS). The best optimal model could vary depending on data usage periods. however, considering the overall fit and predictability, the PLAT model would be regarded to have appropriate predictability in terms of the mortality rates of women in South Korea.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.31-64
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• 2024

The recent trend of declining consciousness regarding the necessity of unification among South Korean citizens is evident. Does a cohort effect exist in this downward trend in the perception of the necessity of unification? The purpose of this study is to analyze whether birth cohorts statistically significantly influence the consciousness of the necessity of unification. To this end, the hierarchical age-period-cohort (HAPC) model was employed as the analytical model, and data from the Unification Consciousness Survey conducted by Seoul National University's Institute for Peace and Unification Studies from 2007 to 2021 was used. The analysis results showed evidence that the progress of economic inequality at the birth cohort level affected the decline in the perception of the necessity of unification. The 1980s birth cohort, which faced socioeconomic difficulties during their social advancement due to income and wealth polarization, is observed to have a distinctly negative perception of unification requiring massive financial resources, compared to the 1960s and 1970s birth cohorts.

• 한국사회정책
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.245-275
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• 2017

It is attempted here to explain change in welfare attitudes for two decades in 10 countries with the cohort effect, especially differences in societal values between generations. It was found that for the last 20 years pro-welfare attitudes of the public has been strengthened, on which the generation has impact, more by the cohort effect than by the age effect, and that the Millennials/Y-generation are the strongest supporters for the state welfare. Value-differences between cohorts, as a background factor for the cohort effect on welfare attitudes, are clear but show a kind of linear trend from the older to the younger cohorts. As for the cohort effect on welfare attitudes, it is expected, at least for the short-term future, in the direction toward supporting the expansion of the state welfare. Korean welfare attitudes show an exceptional pattern - preferring income inequality as incentives, and at the same time, the expansion of governmental welfare responsibility, which echoes recent arguments of contradictoriness and non-class-orientedness of Korean welfare attitudes. Especially, Korean Millennials/Y-G shows this contradictory welfare attitudes the most strongly, which is unique between 10 countries in this study, implying their fierce competition is being internalized. It is expected that the contradictoriness of Korean welfare attitudes may limit its possibility to back up welfare expansion in Korea.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.166-181
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• 2020

This paper attempts to compare and analyze the intensity, trend, and regional gap of income inequality, capitalizing upon the Age-Period-Cohort model which considers age, time and cohort effects, with the 1998-2018 Korea Labor Panel (KLIPS) survey data for respondents living in the Capital and Non-Capital Regions. The main analysis results are as follows. First, in the case of both cohort and age effects, those in their 50~60s, including the so-called baby boomers and '386 generation' living in the Capital Region, have relatively lower income inequality effect compared to that of other age groups and cohorts in the Non-Capital Region. Second, the micro-individual characteristics cannot be ignored to account for a regional gap in income inequality, but rather the effects of structural and institutional omitted variables and the social discrimination effects of individual characteristics variables are more significant in explaining it. Overall, intra-and inter-cohort income inequalities appear to overlap.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.30 no.2 s.57
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• pp.437-461
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• 1997

Because of a significant improvement in the economic situation and development of scientific techniques in Korea during the last 30 years, the life expectancy of the Korean people has lengthened considerably and as a result, the number of the elderly has markedly increased. Such an increase of the number of aged population brought about many social, economic, and medical problems which were never seriously considered before. This study was conducted to assess the trend of medical care utilization and medical expenditure of the elderly. The data of each patient in the study were taken from computer database maintained for administrative purpose by the Korea Medical Insurance Corporation. The study population was 132,670 who were 60 years old or more and registered in Korean Medical Insurance Corporation from 1989 to 1993. The study subjects were predominantly female(56.3%) and 10,000-20,000 Won premium group(50.6%). The following are summaries of findings : The total increase of the number of inpatient cases was 40.5% from 1989 through 1993. The average annual increase was 3.7% in inpatient medical expenditures per case, 4.4% in inpatient medical expenditures per day and 0.08% in length of stay per case from 1989 through 1993. Cataract was the most prevalent disease of 10 leading frequent diseases in all ages from 1989 through 1993. The case mix in 1993 compared to 1989 revealed that cataract and ischemic cerebral disease were increased whereas essential hypertension and pulmonary tuberculosis were decreased . The average annual increase of medical expenditures was 3.8% in general hospitals, 6.3% in hospitals and 2.4% in clinics. From 1989 through 1993, medical expenditures used by high-cost patients accounted for about 14% to 20% of all expenditures for inpatient care, while they represented less than 2.5% of the elderly population. Time series analysis revealed that total medical expenditures and doctor's fee for inpatient will be progressively increased whereas drug expenditures for inpatient will be decreased. And there will be no change in length of stay. Based on the above results, the factors increasing medical cost and utilization should be identified and the method of cost containment for the elderly health care should be developed systematically.

• Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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• 2003.06a
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• pp.161-179
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• 2003

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.349-378
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• 2010

The Life-Course perspective is a theoretical orientation that views the life-course as the age structure embedded in social institutions and history and understands the life-course of individual and group in the contextual perspective. The life-course perspective studies were developed in Germany and North America. They study social and historical effects and the effect of institutions and the state on the life-course, the pathway of the work career and differences of labour outcomes, and the inequality that is developed in the life-course. In Korea, the life-course perspective studies were tried in various fields and cumulated. However, it didn't established as a theoretical orientation. For applying the life-course perspective to connect the individual life-course with social and historical event, I describe the historical location of individuals born between 1930 and 1979 and analyse the change of their transitions to adulthood exploratorily. On results, the extension of education made the structural change of their life-course, and in young cohort the timing of leaving school, entering workforce, marriage and childbirth was delayed and transitions were made in narrower spread. It means the standardization of the life-course as appears in modern society. The 1970s birth cohort has the differenciated life-course pattern, however I cannot verify that change because of the right censoring.