• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.32 no.2
• /
• pp.229-263
• /
• 2019

The Korean fertility rate has been declining rapidly since 2000 with the fertility rate among provinces following a uniform tendency. In particular, the province-specific fertility rate is an essential tool for local governments to prepare local policies for low fertility aging policy, education and welfare policies. However, there is limitation on how to reflect different trends on the province-specific fertility rate because the KOSTAT's (2017) province-specific fertility rate projection estimates information use the national average birth rate date of vital statistics for the last 10 years (5 years). In this study, we propose an improvement plan that simultaneously considers important stable pattern maintenance and provincial fertility rate differentiation for an annual birth rate estimation. The method proposed in this study (proposal 1 and 2) can reflect birth rate changes from past to present and national and provincial differences by age that use time series data of the annual fertility rate. Proposal 3 also reflects the unique fertility rate trend from the past to the present by age according to province regardless of the relationship with the national trend. Therefore, it is preferable to use a relationship to the national rate when predicting the birth rate, as in proposals 1 and 2 because the national and the provincial fertility rate pattern are similar. These proposals show improved stability in terms of age-specific fertility rates.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.34 no.1
• /
• pp.75-98
• /
• 2021

This paper compares three statistical models that examine the relationship between national and provincespecific fertility rates. The three models are two of the regression models and a cointegration model. The regression model is by substituting Gompit transformation for the cumulative fertility rate by the average for ten years, and this model applies the raw data without transformation of the fertility data. A cointegration model can be considered when fitting the unstable time series of fertility rate in probability process. This paper proposes the following when it is intended to derive the relation of non-stationary fertility rate between the national and provinces. The cointegrated relationship between national and regional fertility rates is first derived. Furthermore, if this relationship is not significant, it is proposed to look at the national and regional fertility rate relationships with a regression model approach using raw data without transformation. Also, the regression model method of substituting Gompit transformation data resulted in an overestimation of fertility rates compared to other methods. Finally, Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon and Gyeonggi province are expected to show a total fertility rate of 1.0 or less from 2025 to 2030, so an urgent and efficient policy to raise this level is needed.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.32 no.1
• /
• pp.1-23
• /
• 2009

This paper uses a survey data to analyze the age-specific fertility rates, age-specific cumulative fertility rates, and ages of marriage of the five birth cohorts of Korean women born in the 1940s and thereafter. It was found that later cohorts reach their highest age-specific fertility rate at higher ages than earlier cohorts. The age-specific cumulative fertility rates of the 1950s and 1960 cohorts were found to be much lower than those of the immediately preceding cohorts, while those of the 1970s and 1980s cohorts were not different from those of the 1960s cohorts. Women belonging to later cohorts were found to get married at relatively higher ages. The estimation results of the hazard model show that women belonging to later cohorts and those with more schooling have a tendency to get married at higher ages. The effect of the birth cohorts is thought to be due to the economic, social, and cultural changes in Korea during the late 50 years or so. The time interval between a woman‘s marriage and first birth was found not to be affected by either the year of marriage or that of her birth. Also, those who remained employed for some time around their marriage and those with low schooling were found to have a lower first child birth hazard, which implies that married women’s employment status and family income play an important role in their decisions on childbirth.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.29 no.2
• /
• pp.53-88
• /
• 2006

The major aim of this paper is to develop a hypothetical set of age-specific fertility rates which are logically derived and reasonably accurate in the projection of future population. The first procedure is to select a generalized log-gamma distribution model, which includes Coale-McNeil nuptiality model, in order to estimate and project a set of age-specific fertility rates by birth cohort and birth order. The second is to apply the log-gamma model with an empirical adjustment to the actual data to estimate and project the future fertility rates for relatively young birth cohorts who did not complete their reproductive career. This study reconstructs or translates a set of cohort age-specific fertility rates into a set of period age-specific fertility rates which must be hypothesized in order to establish the broader framework of future population projection. For example, the fertility at age 20 in the year of 2020 is the fertility at age 20 for the cohort born in 1990, while the fertility at age 21 in the year of 2020 is the fertility at 21 for the cohort born in 1989. In turn, once a set of age-specific fertility rates for the cohorts who were born up to the year of 2010, it is possible for one to establish an hypothetical set of period age-specific fertility rates which will be needed to project the future population until the year of 2055. The difference in the hypothetical system of age-specific fertility rates between this study and the 2005 special population projection comes from the fact that the fertility estimation/projection model used in this study was skillfully exploited to reflect better actual trend of fertility decline caused by rise in marriage age and increasing proportion of those who remain single until their end of reproduction. In this regard, this paper argues that the set of age-specific fertility rates derived from this study is more logical and reasonably accurate than the set of those used for the 2005 special projection. In the population projection, however, the fundamental issue of the hypothetical setting of age-specific fertility rates in relation to the fertility estimation/projection model is about how skillfully one can handle the period effects. It is not easy for one to completely cope with the problem of period effects except for the a minor period adjustment based on recent actual data, along with the given framework of a cohort-based fertility estimation/projection model.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.30 no.3
• /
• pp.137-156
• /
• 2007

Total fertility rate (TFR) increased from the lowest 1.08 in 2005 to 1.13 in 2006, and a debate is made whether the increase is temporary or continuous as a result of various pro-natal policies. This study intends to explore policy implications revealed in recent fertility change using vital statistics. For this purpose, tempo-adjusted fertility rate by birth order, fertility rate by age of mother and birth order, age-specific fertility for married, and age-specific divorce rate for married are analyzed. The increase of TFR and births for 2006 is largely due to increase of first births at early thirties with slowdown of delayed first marriage and first child birth. The increase of female population (the third wave effect of baby boom) and first marriages of late twenties in 2006 and 2007 would lead to increase of fertility during 2007-2008. But further increase is uncertain because of the decrease trend of marital fertility and increase trend of never-married for twenties. TFRs for first and second births reduced rapidly, while TFRs for third and above births showed no changes, and second births were largely affected by tempo adjustment of fertility. Thus, constructing social environment for first and second births is more effective and necessary than encouraging third births. In addition, social responsibility of child care, child-women health issues due to delayed births, and the need for multi-cultural family support system are discussed.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.32 no.2
• /
• pp.59-85
• /
• 2009

본 연구는 최근 인구학에서 공간적 접근을 시도하는 논의들이 활발해지는 경향과 함께 지역 적합적 저출산 대응정책의 필요성의 대두라는 정책적 수요에 부합하고자 자녀출산계획에 있어 지역의 공간적 효과가 미치는 효과를 분석하였다. 또한, 기혼여성의 연령, 출산한 자녀의 수가 자녀를 출산할 계획을 가질 확률에 대한 비선형적 효과를 실증적으로 분석하였다. 다층모형과 같이 최근 지역연구에서 이용되고 있는 실증분석방법들의 한계점을 살펴보고, 그 대안으로 Geo-Additive Model을 적용하였다. 동 방법론은 한 모형 내에서 공간의 구조적 효과와 비구조적 효과, 연속형 변인의 비선형효과 등을 동시에 추정할 수 있다. 이를 위한 분석자료로 통계청의 2005년도 인구주택총조사의 마이크로데이터 중 2% B형 자료를 이용하였다. 분석결과 기혼여성이 자녀를 출산할 계획을 가질 확률에 기혼여성의 연령과 출산한 자녀의 수는 비선형적 효과를 주었으며, 특히 각 개인들은 현재의 출산 상태에서 자녀 한명을 추가로 출산하는 것이 동일한 부담으로 작용하지 않음을 알 수 있었다. 이를 통해 기혼여성들의 첫출산 시점이 결혼연령에 따라 차이가 있고 결혼코호트에 따라 다르더라도 첫출산 자체가 여전히 보편적인 현상이라는 가정을 받아들인다면, 출산율 제고를 위한 정책의 대상은 첫째아를 이미 출산한 여성들이 되어야 할 것으로 보인다. 또한, 자녀를 출산할 계획을 가질 확률에 지역의 구조적 공간효과가 유의미한 영향을 주는 것으로 분석되었다. 지역별 합계출산율의 공간 자기상관분석 결과와 비교해 본 결과 출산계획의 구조적 공간효과가 양의 효과를 미치는 지역에서는 실제 출산행위인 합계출산율도 높지만, 구조적 공간효과가 부적인 효과를 가지고 있는 지역에서는 합계출산율도 낮게 나타남을 알 수 있었다. 따라서 각 지방자치단체에서는 지자체들의 정책수요나 자원 및 재정의 부담능력 등 지역별 차이를 고려하지 않은 일률적인 정책의 추진을 지양하고, 지역 특수성을 고려하여 지역에 적합한 출산정책을 추진해야 할 것이다.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.29 no.2
• /
• pp.1-26
• /
• 2006

This paper examines the interplay among changes in socioeconomic conditions, population policies, and fertility decline during $1960{\sim}2000$ in South Korea. Period-parity-progression-ratios (PPPR) are calculated using 2% samples of Population Census with the implied distribution of completed family size. The total fertility rate based on PPPR declined from 5.21 in 1960 to 2.76 in 1980, and 1.69 in 2000. The family planning programs were successful in meeting the needs of families that wanted to prevent further childbearing after having achieved the desired family size during $1960{\sim}1970$. The 1980s mark two important landmarks: achievement of replacement fertility and emergence of high sex ratio at birth. In the 1990s the "quality and welfare" approach was emphasized. In 2000s, South Korea's fertility is one of the lowest in the world. In response to this, in 2005, the Government adopted a new population policy with the goal of increasing the total fertility level to 1.6 by 2010. The results of this study indicate that proportion of women who would have no children at all throughout their reproductive life span increased substantially from 10% in 1995 to 16% in 2000, with a sharp increase since 1997. Thus, pro-natal programs need to address the problems associated with marriage and having the first child. Towards that, it is important that work and family life become more compatible.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.17 no.11
• /
• pp.256-270
• /
• 2016

This purpose of this study is to present a new theoretical framework on birthrate recovery in advanced countries in the 21st century. As a result of socioeconomic development and individualism diffusion, the central axis of the family has transformed from the vertical axis of the father-son relation, to the horizontal axis of the husband-wife relation. This process is divided into 2 stages. In the industrialization stage, a nation or a society achieves equality of the individual in family formation, including marriage or divorce. In the post-industrialization stage, it accomplishes the couple equality in family maintenance, including child rearing and household labor. This paper grouped 33 OECD member countries as post- industrialization countries and 103 countries as industrialization countries. This study utilizes 6 variables affecting marriage and childbearing based on previous research. Research results find that during the industrialization stage, the birthrate falls as the education level of women is higher. In the post-industrialization stage, the birthrate rises as gender equality level is higher.

• Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
• /
• v.20 no.3
• /
• pp.151-171
• /
• 2016

The purpose of this study was to identify the relationship between family-friendly policies in working places and the childbearing intentions of married-employed women. The analysis included 415 married working women from the 2012 wave of the Korean Longitudinal Survey of Women and Family. The factors influencing the childbearing intentions of the women were age, education, number of children under age 18, childbirth leave, childcare facilities, and flextime. The women whose work-places provided childbirth leave had stronger childbearing intentions. The women under age 35 had stronger childbearing intentions when their work-places had flextime policies. In conclusion, my recommendation is that the government should pay more attention to the micro-personal factors, such as the Family-friendly Workplace Practices proposed in this study, when executing policies to reverse the current trend of low fertility.

• Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
• /
• v.48 no.10
• /
• pp.1061-1067
• /
• 2005

Purpose : We studied a clinical analysis of pediatric patients who visited the emergency medical center of Yeungnam University Hospital to compare the characteristics of pediatric emergency patients after year 2000 with the previous studies. Methods : We reviewed 7,034 children under the age of 15 years who visited the emergency medical center of Yeungnam University Hospital during the 2 year period from January 2001 to December 2002, and then we performed a clinical and statistical analysis. We analyzed the pediatric patients according to gender, age, season, day of the week, time of the visit, the disease classification and the final disposition of the patients. Results : Among the patients who visited the emergency room, 15.6% of the total emergency patients were under the age of 15. The male to female ratio was 1.6 : 1. Among the 7,034 pediatric patients, the most common age group was between 1 year and under 3 years of age(26.9%). The peak seasonal incidence was early summer and spring, especially during June(11.2%) and May(10.6 %). The peak incidence day of the week was Sunday(24.8%) and the peak time when the emergency pediatric patients visited the emergency room was between 20 and 24 o'clock(28.8%). The distribution of diseases, according to ICD-10 system, were injury and poisoning(30.4%), diseases of the respiratory system(22.8%), and diseases of the digestive system(14.6%). 30% of total pediatric patients were admitted to the hospital. Conclusion : After year 2000, as compared with the previous studies, the proportions of emergency pediatric patients has decreased. The distribution of diseases was not much different from the previous studies and the proportions of non-urgent diseases, such as acute nasopharyngitis or acute gastroenteritis, were still high. These result have come about due to the declining birth rate and changes of the medical system in Korea.