• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.1-3
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• 2016

연안여객운송은 도서와 육지의 인적 및 물적 교류가 이루어질 수 있도록 하는 유일한 교통수단으로서 그 중요성이 매우 크다. 그럼에도 불구하고 연안여객선에서의 수익성이 낮다는 이유로 그 중요성을 인식하지 못하고 있는 것이 사실이다. 그렇지만 앞으로의 연안여객 수요에 따라 향후 도서민들에게 안정적인 서비스를 제공하기 위해 선박의 추가 투입 및 시설 확충을 위한 의사결정에서 가장 기본이 되는 것이 연안여객의 수요를 예측하는 것이다. 본 논문 에서는 가장 많은 여객 수요를 가지고 있는 제주지역 중에서도 세월호 이후에 끊긴 인천과 제주 항로에 초점을 맞추어 연구를 진행할 것이다. 2007년 1월부터 2013년 12월 까지 84개의 월별 자료를 바탕으로 예측 기법 중에서도 계량적 기법인 시계열 분석을 통해 여객 수요를 예측하고자 한다. 예측 작업에 있어 항상 우수한 성과를 보이는 단 하나의 모형은 존재하지 않기 때문에 예측에 수반된 불확실성을 줄이기 위해 다양한 예측모형을 사용한다. 여러 방법론 중에서 가장 적합도가 높은 모형을 찾아 여객 수요를 예측하고 결과를 도출하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.539-546
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• 2016

It is over 12 years since the launch of Korea Train eXpress (KTX) services. Demand for the KTX has been on the increase continuously but few studies have been produced related to this phenomenon. KTX passenger demand has been constantly increasing due to influencing factors such as the expansion of network, rise of oil prices, etc. In this study, our main focus is to verify that there are other types of elements that are causing an increase in KTX demand; our approach looks at changes in social and psychological aspect that have occurred due to the reduction of travel time and cost, as well as the imposition of a five-day workweek. In other words, we considered diffusion theory in the marketing area, which affects product selection and purchasing attitudes, as a key factor that is causing passenger demand to increase. That is to say that it is hypothesized that the demand for travel on the KTX has increased due to the train's utility, which is spread by the diffusion effect Therefore, the Bass diffusion model was applied to explain the dramatic increase in KTX passenger demand. Based on this foundation, it was also discussed how certain marketing strategies that incorporate the diffusion effect should be considered variously for sustainable management of rail transportation, while considering a steady passenger demand.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.137-143
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• 2018

Korea's air passenger traffic has been growing steadily. In this paper, we propose a forecasting model of air passenger demand to ascertain the growth trend of air passenger transportation performance in Korea. We conducted a simulation based on System Dynamics with the demand as a dependent variable, and international oil prices, GDP and exchange rates as exogenous variables. The accuracy of the model was verified using MAPE and $R^2$, and the proposed prediction model was verified as an accurate prediction model. As a result of the demand forecast, it is predicted that the air passenger demand in Korea will continue to grow, and the share of low cost carriers will increase sharply. The addition of the Korean transportation performance of foreign carriers in Korea and the transportation performance of Korean passengers due to the alliance of airlines will provide a more accurate forecast of passenger demand.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.1-11
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• 2011

The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of exchange rate and economic business activity on the passengers' demand for international transportation. The demand pattern depends upon the transport vehicles that the global passengers take. The global passengers' demand for transportation is modelled as exchange rate, industrial production and seasonal dummy variables. The seasonality is found in both water and air, but the former is far greater than the latter. All series span the period January 1990 to December 2008. The empirical results of this paper reveal that the income elasticity of sea transport is greater than that of air one, all of which are positive. The study also shows that the exchange rate has an significant impact on the demand for air transport, whereas it is insignificant in water transport. The impulse response function indicates that passengers increase steadily before peaking seven to eight months after the shocks to economic business activity and decline very slowly to its pre-shock level. The air passengers also respond negatively to the shocks in exchange rate and the impacts of exchange rate shock seem to decrease relatively slowly, while the water passengers respond positively after six months. The industrial production shocks remain above equilibrium for more than twenty four months, while the exchange rate shocks remain below equilibrium for more than twenty four months. Boosted by improved economic conditions worldwide, international tourism has recovered faster than expected from the impacts of the global financial crisis and economic recession of late 2008 and 2009. These facts suggest that the demand of global water transport has the high possibility of growing steadily and continuously.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.307-312
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• 2014

This study suggested the ARIMA model taking into consideration the seasonal characteristic factor as a method for efficiently forecasting passenger transport demand of the Joongang Line. The forecasting model was built including the demand for the central inland region tourist train (O-train, V-train), which was opened to traffic in April-, 2013 and run in order to reflect the recent demand for the tourism industry. By using the monthly time series data (103) from January-, 2005 to July-, 2013, the optimum model was selected. The forecasting results of passenger transport demand of the Joongang Line showed continuous increase. The developed model forecasts the short-term demand of the Joongang Line.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.7-15
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• 2008

Due to the limitations in the statistical data, the existing studies adopted rough methodologies with strong assumptions in the estimation of international passenger travel demand forecast in the ASEAN region. This study aims to develop international passenger travel demand models using scientific methodologies. This study proposes a direct demand model using the immigration and emigration data between countries in the region. This is because of the difficulty of estimating trip generation and trip distribution separately due to the data limitation in the region. As there does not exist the mode choice model for the region, this study estimates a mode choice model using the Stated Preference technique. The mode choice model is separated into three categories of models according to the range of distance between the origin and destination of travel; this is to reflect the different behavior in mode choice according to the travel distance. The result of model estimations suggests that the estimated models produce resonable results statistically. It is expected that the proposed models are useful for the future travel demand estimation in the ASEAN region.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.83-91
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• 2009

This paper aims to predict air passenger and air freight demands in the air routes between South and North Korea. The air demands will be fostered by the visitors of Pyeongyang and Baekdu Mountain, whose forecasts will be used for supplying the air traffic services necessary for the active exchange and cooperation between South and North Korea in the future. The authors use the tool of regression analysis under the assumption of epoch-making progress in demand for aviation in accordance with the exchange and cooperation scenario between South and North Korea. After predicting the total number of travelers through regression analysis, the authors applied the share of air passengers among total travelers in order to predict the number of air passengers. Finally, the number of flights of each airport and route were forecasted by including the air freight, estimated from the number of air passengers.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.99-106
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• 2023

글로벌 팬데믹 사태는 항공 수요에 부정적인 영향을 끼치는 요소 중 하나다. 글로벌 팬데믹으로 인해 한국은 2020년과 2021년의 항공 승객 수가 2019년 대비 각각 68.1%와 47% 감소했다. 본 연구는 지난 20여년 동안 발생한 4대 팬데믹 특성을 분석, 전염병의 영향을 연구하는 것을 목표로 한다. SARS, H1N1, MERS 및 COVID-19의 발생기간 동안 한국의 항공 여객 및 화물 수요에 대한 실증 데이터를 활용하여 영향력을 분석한다. 또한 머신러닝 회귀 모델을 구축하여 향후 발생할 다른 전염병 대한 항공 수요를 예측하고자 한다. 연구 결과, 전염병이 항공 운항편수와 승객에 부정적인 영향을 미친다는 사실을 발견하였다. 반면화물 수송에는 긍정적인 영향을 미친다는 분석 결과를 도출하였다. 본 분석에 활용되는 회귀 모델은 팬데믹 기간 동안 항공수요를 예측하는 데 평균 86.8%의 기능을 보였다. 또한 본 연구는 특정 국가의 팬데믹 상황보다 전 세계적인 팬데믹 상황이 항공 운송 수요에 더 많은 영향을 미친다는 것을 보여준다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.17-31
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• 1984

공항의 용량측정은 수요군의 흐름에서 발생하는 소비시간분석을 요구하며 공항체계 의 대부분 시설에서는 흐름의 시간변위를 연속대기례에 의한 비효율적방법으로 예측할수도 있으나 청사내의 여객동선에 대해서는 여러 시설을 활용하려는 여객의 선택선호로 인하여 확률적 접근이 바람직하다. 본 논문은 공항의 청사내에서 부대시설에 의하여 소비되는 여객 의 이완시간을 예측하는 모형을 개발하였다. 총이완시간은 여객이 각 시설을 이용하는 확률 과 이용시간의 기대치에 대한 함수로서 계산되었으며 정상적인 여객의 동선이 이들 시설에 의하여 영향을 받을 경우에만 정의되도록 하였다. 이 이완도는 연속된 청사의 기능시설에 대한 여객동선분포의 입력과 출력을 설명하는데 쓰이게 되며 나아가서는 청사전반의 용량산 정을 위한 지표를 제공한다. 모형 검증을 위한 자료는 매표대와 보안검사대 사이의 부대시 설을 중심으로 수집되었으며 자료의 특성과 모형의 심요성이 논의되었다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.7
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• pp.1257-1268
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• 2014

Since the introduction of KTX (Korea Tranin eXpress) in Korea reilway market, number of passengers using KTX has been greatly increased in the market. Thus, demand forecasting for KTX passengers has been played a importantant role in the train operation and management. In this paper, we study several time series models and compare the models based on considering special days and others. We used the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Errors) to compare the performance between the models and we showed that the Reg-AR-GARCH model outperformanced other models in short-term period such as one month. In the longer periods, the Reg-ARMA model showed best forecasting accuracy compared with other models.