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http://dx.doi.org/10.7782/JKSR.2014.17.4.307

Forecasting Passenger Transport Demand Using Seasonal ARIMA Model - Focused on Joongang Line  

Kim, Beom-Seung (Korea Railroad Information Technology Office)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Society for Railway / v.17, no.4, 2014 , pp. 307-312 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study suggested the ARIMA model taking into consideration the seasonal characteristic factor as a method for efficiently forecasting passenger transport demand of the Joongang Line. The forecasting model was built including the demand for the central inland region tourist train (O-train, V-train), which was opened to traffic in April-, 2013 and run in order to reflect the recent demand for the tourism industry. By using the monthly time series data (103) from January-, 2005 to July-, 2013, the optimum model was selected. The forecasting results of passenger transport demand of the Joongang Line showed continuous increase. The developed model forecasts the short-term demand of the Joongang Line.
Keywords
Joongang Line; Passenger Transport Demand; Seasonal ARIMA Model; O-train; V-train;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 7  (Citation Analysis)
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