• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.101-109
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• 2015

The expected economic effect by investment was divided by square of real discount rate annually for change to present value. Thus, the impact of real discount rate on economic analysis is larger than other factors. The existing general method for prediction of real discount rate is application of average data during past certain period. This study proposed prediction method of real discount rate for accuracy improvement. First, the economic variables which impact on interest rate of business loan and consumer price of real discount rate were determined. The variables which impact on interest rate of business loan were selected to call rate and exchange rate. The variable which impact on consumer price index was selected to producer price index. Next, the effect relation was analyzed between real discount rate and selected variables. The significant effect relation were analyzed to exit. Lastly, the real discount rate was predicted from 2008 to 2010 based on related economic variables. The accuracy of prediction result was compared with actual data and average data. The real discount rate based on actual data, predicted data, and average data were analyzed to -1.58%, -0.22%, and 6.06%, respectively. Though the proposed method in this study was not considered special condition such as financial crisis, the prediction accuracy was much higher than result based on average data.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.125-146
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• 1994

본(本) 논문(論文)에서는 1993년에 퇴직한 공무원(公務員)들에 대한 자료(資料)를 사용하여 이들의 시간할인율(時間割引率)을 측정하였다. 시간할인율(時間割引率)은 여러 경제학 모형에서 개인(個人)의 소비(消費)와 저축행태(貯蓄行態)를 결정짓는 중요한 요소로 등장한다. 시간할인율(時間割引率)을 추정한 기존의 실증분석(實證分析)들은 1% 내외의 매우 낮은 추정치(推定値)를 보고하고 있으며, 심지어 음(-)인 경우도 있다. 이러한 낮은 추정치는 시간할인율(時間割引率)이 실질적으로 거의 아무런 역할을 하지 않음을 의미한다. 그러나 기존의 실증분석(實證分析)은 대부분 거시(巨視) 시계열자료(時系列資料)를 사용하여 경제내의 대표적(代表的) 개인(個人)(representative individual)이라는 가상적 존재의 시간할인율(時間割引率)을 추정하였다는 단점을 갖는다. 본(本) 논문(論文)에서는 우리나라의 퇴직공무원들에 대한 미시(微視) 횡단면자료(橫斷面資料)를 사용하여 실존하는 각 개인(個人)의 시간할인율(時間割引率)을 추정하였고, 그 결과 기존의 연구(硏究)에서와는 달리 시간할인율(時間割引率)이 평균적으로 14~15% 정도의 매우 높은 값을 가짐을 발견하였다. 이러한 결과는 개인(個人)의 노후생활(老後生活) 안정(安定)을 위한 저축(貯蓄)을 각 개인(個人)의 자발적인 의사에 일임하기보다는 공적(公的), 사적연금제도(私的年金制度)를 통하여 강제하는 것이 합리적일 수 있음을 보여준다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.161-163
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• 2012

Recently on Value Engineering(VE) and Life Cycle Cost(LCC) social interests is increasing. The government Turn Key, BTL projects and public works projects, such as VE and LCC Analysis on the value and economic analysis is mandatory. And accordingly the VE and LCC analysis is underway for the various studies. However, there is a problem existing in the LCC analysis. Worth the cost varies according to the flow of time. However, the real interest rate during the LCC analysis of buildings in calculation time for interest rates and inflation are not considering the value of the flow. In other words, a few years using the average value of the deterministic analysis method has been adopted. These costs for the definitive analysis of the cost of an uncertain future, unforeseen changes resulting hazardous value. In this study of the last 15 years interest rates and inflation targeting by using Monte-Carlo Simulation is to perform probabilistic analysis. This potential to overcome uncertainties of the cost of building a more scientific and LCC Estimation of the probability value of the real interest rate is presented.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.81 no.3
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• pp.280-286
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• 1992

When the social cost-benefit analysis is applied for analyzing the public forestry investment, the choice of discount rate to be used in analysis is critical. In this paper, the social discount rate discussed in the public economics was introduced and the social time preference rate as a measure of that was estimated for Korea. The component parameters of the model used are : the elasticity of social marginal utility of consumption and the growth rate of real consumption. The results for the social time preference rate and the elasticity of social marginal utility of consumption are 6.2% and -1.38, respectively, which are plausible and thus can be used as a useful basis in establishing rational resource allocation policies.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.673-692
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• 2006

In order to test for the dynamic optimality condition for the use of nonrenewable resource, it is necessary to estimate the shadow value of the resource in situ. In the previous literatures, a time series for in situ price has been derived either as the difference between marginal revenue and marginal cost or by differentiating with respect to the quantity of ore extracted the restricted cost function in which the quantity of ore is quasi-fixed. However, not only inconsistent estimates are likely to be generated due to the nonmalleability of capital, but the estimate of marginal revenue will be affected by market power. Since firms will likely fail to minimize the cost of the reproducible inputs subject to market prices under realistic circumstances where imperfect factor markets, strikes, or government regulations are present, the shadow in situ values obtained by estimating the restricted cost function can be biased. This paper provides a valid methodology for checking the dynamic optimality condition for a nonrenewable resource by using the input distance function. Our methodology has some advantages over previous ones: only data on quantities of inputs and outputs are required; nor is the maintained hypothesis of cost minimization required; adoption of linear programming enables us to circumvent autocorrelated errors problem caused by use of time series or panel data. The dynamic optimality condition for domestic coal mining does not hold for constant discount rates ranging from 2 to 20 percent over the period 1970~1993. The dynamic optimality condition also does not hold for variable rates ranging from fourth to four times the real interest rate.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.11 no.5
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• pp.160-170
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• 2007

This study predicts Life Cycle Cost of RC Slab bridge case in maintenance and operation level and calculated economic efficiency by the avoidable costs of a bridge. This result of the study can be summarized as follow: (1) LCC analysis model on the bridge case is suggested. (2) Maintenance and operation level of a bridge have been divided, and LCC of the bridge case has been predicted at current maintenance and operation level and required maintenance and operation level. (3) Reduction costs is predicted by LCC of the bridge case, and its economic efficiency is calculated.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.1-15
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• 2003

Recently, urban information system(UIS) has been developed and utilized by local governments in Korea and has become a key means of urban informatization of local governments. When UIS is conducted only for FM oriented internal utilization regardless of its cost-efficiency, however, its cost-benefit structure could be distorted seriously. The study utilizes benefit cost analysis technique and applied the technique to a model case of Chungju UIS selected by National GIS team. Chungju City developed its GIS for the management of roads and urban planning in 1993. At its beginning, the system was an efficient model with relatively strong cost-benefit structure and could produce positive net benefit 10 years' after its construction. When the city began to develop its facility management with the financial assistance from central government in 1998, however, its cost-benefit structure became distorted. As a result, it is delayed for the UIS to produce positive net benefit until the year of 2015. Using benefit cost ratio, discount rate and Mobile GIS, the study also conducts a sensitivity analysis.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.454-476
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• 2010

In this paper is two-step trade model introduced. It is assumed that countries have 3 basic factors- capital(K), land (Z)and population(N)-as national factor endowments. As the first step, education 'produces' 'educated labor(EL)' which embodies new knowledge or new technology by using the population and capital as inputs. As the second step, manufacturing goods is produced with EL and uneducated labor(UL), and agriculture goods with land and UL. According to this model, the higher the increase rate of capital in a country is, the lower the usage rate of land is, the lower the increase rate of discount is, the country tends to export the manufacturing goods and import the agriculture goods. Trade widens the discrepancy of increase rate of EL in both countries but reduces the gap of increase rate of relative wage of EL as far as the gap of usage rate is not so big. Trade also affect real income rather than nominal income. This model can be extended to explain the migration from rural areas to urban areas when the manufacturing sector and education organization exist in urban area while the agricultural sector exist in rural area.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.18 no.4 s.70
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• pp.445-452
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• 2005

This paper presents a design method to minimize Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of steel box girders. The LCC considered in this paper includes initial cost, expected life-cycle maintenance cost and repair cost. A load carrying capacity curve is derived from a condition grade curve of steel girders and load tarrying capacity that is measured in safety diagnostic test. And then, optimal design of steel box girders is performed on the basis of load carrying capacity curve. In this paper time and number of times for repair of steel girders are determined based on the calculated load carrying capacity curve. Also, annual costs considering real discount rate are compared and analyzed in various cases. It is concluded that the optimal design of steel box gilders considering LCC by the presented method will lead to more economical and safer girders than conventional design.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.101-111
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• 2013

In this study, DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) was carried out on the four bridges, which have the same extension (L=1,615m), in order to select the most superior, economical method of construction using the LCC concept of each bridge structure in the case of the Ulsan-Pohang double track railway which is scheduled to be constructed. DEA models were analyzed with the CCR model, which was designed for the evaluation of relative efficiency of each model. The initial construction costs, maintenance costs, indirect costs (user costs + indirect loss of social costs), and life cycle costs were used as input variables, and average duration was applied as the output variable. LCC was applied to calculate the input variables, and to get the costs of LCC, 100 years of period and 4.83% of real discount rate were applied, and the costs are classified into initial construction, maintenance, user, and indirect loss of social cost. The analysis results showed that the Method 2 and 3 were evaluated as the most efficient, and the other alternatives were evaluated as the following order; Method 1, the default, and Method 4.