• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.8
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• pp.572-578
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• 2020

The stock market is affected by unexpected factors, such as politics, society, and natural disasters, as well as by corporate performance and economic conditions. In recent days, artificial intelligence has become popular, and many researchers have tried to conduct experiments with that. Our study proposes an experiment using not only stock-related data but also other various economic data. We acquired a year's worth of data on stock prices, the percentage of foreigners, interest rates, and exchange rates, and combined them in various ways. Thus, our input data became diversified, and we put the combined input data into a nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) model. With the input data in the NARX model, we analyze and compare them to the original data. As a result, the model exhibits a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.08 as being the most accurate when we set 10 neurons and two delays with a combination of stock prices and exchange rates from the U.S., China, Europe, and Japan. This study is meaningful in that the exchange rate has the greatest influence on stock prices, lowering the error from RMSE 0.589 when only closing data are used.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.30 no.6 s.112
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• pp.439-446
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• 2006

In ship structures many of the structural plates have cutouts, for example, at inner bottom structure, girder, upper deck hatch, floor and dia-frame etc. In the case where a plate has a cutout it experiences reduced buckling and ultimate strength and at the same time the in-plane stress under compressive load produced by hull girder bending will be redistributed In general, actual ship structure adopted reinforcement of stiffener around the cutout in order to preventing from buckling so it need to examine a buckling and ultimate strength behaviour considering a cutout because In many ship yards used class rule for calculating buckling strength but it is difficult to evaluate perforate stiffened plate with random size. In the present paper, we investigated several kinds of perforated stiffened model from actual ship and then was performed finite element series analysis varying the cutout ratio, web height, thickness and type of cross-section using commercial FEA program(ANSYS) under compressive load.

• Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.271-305
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• 2014

There is an inescapable requirement in public policy to provide evidence. For the evaluation of the EU Rural Development Policy, the European Commission has designed a Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework(CMEF). The principal objectives of evaluations are to improve decision-making, resource allocation and accountability. In Korea, howerver, the opinion-based policy by expert is still rural development evaluation system. It does not provide the objective quantitative indicators for impact of rural development project. According to this, the budget-making body (parliament, government, etc.) have questioned the effectiveness of rural development projects, rural development projects often reduced or changed. To improve the accountability of rural development policy, it is necessary to build a reliable monitoring and evaluation system based on the evidence. First, rural development evaluation indicators should be considered the multipul goal of rural development, namely economic development, social development. Second, the purpose of the evaluation is necessary to be designed for the learning rather than reward. Third, the participation by local residents should be strengthened in evaluation process. Finally, it is necessary to establish rural development monitoring and evaluation system, such as CMEF of the EU (CMEF).

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.137-145
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• 2020

The recent bridge construction projects demand thorough and systematic safety and risk management, due to the increase of risk factors following the introduction of new and complex construction methods and technologies. Among many types of damages that can occur in bridge construction projects, the damages to third parties who are not directly related to the existing property of the contractor construction project can also bring about critical loss in the project in order to compensate the damages. Therefore, risks that could be caused by the loss occurred to indemnify the third party damages should be clearly analyzed, although there are not subsequent amount of studies focusing on the issue. Based on the past record of insurance payment from domestic insurance companies for bridge construction projects, this study aimed to analyze the risk factors of bridge construction for loss caused to compensate the third-party damages happened in actual bridge construction projects and to develop a quantified and numerical predictive loss model. In order to develop the model, the loss ratio was selected as the dependent variable; and among many analyzed independent variables, the superstructure, foundation, flood, and ranking of contractors were the four significant risk factor variables that affect the loss ratio. The results produced can be used as an essential guidance for balanced risk assessment, supplementing the existing analysis on material losses in bridge construction projects by taking into account the third-party damage and losses.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.66-80
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• 1997

Pinus koraiensis is one of the major speciese which have been recently planted for ten years and consists of 31% of total plantation. Presently young stand less than 30 years consists of 87% of total forest, but tending thinning of it is hardly carried out and the desirable direction for the thinning is not established yet. The objective of the study is to introduce the optimum thinning plan and thinning method through the long-run experiment of tending thinning for the Pinus koraiensis stand. The experiments carry out to interprete its growth model on the subject of two thinning experimental plots and yield table of Pinus koraiensis. As the basic step for understanding the thinning process, a theoretical growth model which is suitable to express the growth process is required. For that purpose, three growth functions (Mitscherlich, 4 parameter Richards, 3 parameter Richards) are applied to the diameter growth of the sample trees which are taken in the two plots. The results show that 3 parameter Richards is the most suitable. It is also verified that the diameter growth, the height growth, and the decrease in the number of stocks can be estimated by this function. To estimate the growth change of single tree, growth model including parameter h which is related to the occupation area of single tree are introduced. The parameter h can be estimated by using the data of the diameter growth obtained from the established experimental plots. Therefore, if both verification and modification of the usefulness of the model suggested is made, equations which tell about the thinning effects could be drived by estimating the growth process of single tree in advance.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.76-86
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• 2016

Recently, the Contracts of International Construction Business has been decreased from the beginning of 2015 in Korea, although it has been steadily increased until 2014. This trend could be caused by Low-Price Contracts, the lack of Know-how and experience in operating, the poor management of Claims and Low-Profitability in Business. It has been recognized that the qualitative improvement of Business Contacts are necessary for successful Projects. In the Bidding Process, therefore, Experience data as In-House Data and Lessons Learned for projects should be strategically involved to assure riskless offers. Accordingly the Proposal Process are needed to be organized and enhanced by including processes for risks review about technical, marketing and commercial part during the bidding. This paper proposes a Risk Management Process model during Bidding Phase, using Risk Evaluation Method through the project life-cycle. The Concept of Model is to define CSF (Critical Success Factor) in the bidding process and Risk Factors are linked to CSF and Organization based on RAM (Responsibility assignment matrix).

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.96-107
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• 2013

Tower crane hoisting plan is one of the key element for the success of entire High-Rise Building construction. Hoisting time is the basic factor to appropriate hoisting plan which need to the hoisting load estimate and tower crane selection. With this reason, accurate hoisting time is needed to the proper hoisting plan. The current hoisting time estimation for High-Rise Building focus on the hoisting cycle time estimation with historical data. However, this method underestimated the external influences like environmental factor. Thus, this paper aims to develop the hoisting time estimation model with discrete event simulation which include the wind influences with certain height. According to the simulation result, the hoisting time which applied wind influence is increasing with height growth. Because of the high speed wind, the upper area of building has more operation delay time than the mechanical operation time. Seoul, the research area, has the most fastest wind speed on April and the least on October. Due to these differences of wind speed, the hoisting time is estimated with significant differences between April and October. This hosting time estimation model would be used for estimating the influence of wind. Moreover, this could apply to make the realistic hoisting plan.

• Proceedings of KOSOMES biannual meeting
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.141-146
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• 2005

Ship have cutout inner bottom and girder and floor etc. Ship's structure is used much, and structure strength must be situated, but establish new concept when high stress interacts sometimes fatally the area. There is no big problem usually by aim of weight reduction, a person and change of freight, piping etc. Because cutout's existence grow up in this place, and, elastic buckling strength by load causes large effect in ultimate strength. Therefore, stiffened perforated plate considering buckling strength and ultimate strength is one of important design criteria which must examine when decide structural concept at initial design. Therefore, and, reasonable buckling strength about perforated stiffened plate need to ultimate strength limited design . Calculated ultimate strength varied several web height and cutout's dimension, and thickness in this investigated data. Used program(ANSYS) applied F.E.A code based on finite element method.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.107-116
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• 2019

Korean construction engineering firms want to pave the way for expansion of overseas markets through the World Bank's Official Development Assistance (ODA) projects as a way to improve their overseas project performance. However, since the World Bank project competes with global companies for limited projects, building partnerships with suitable business partners is essential to gain an upper hand in bidding competition and meet the institutional conditions of the recipient country. In this regard, many network studies have been conducted in the past through Social Network Analysis (SNA), but few have been analyzed based on the process of changes in the network. So, This study collected winning data from the three Southeast Asian countries that ended after the World Bank's ODA project performed smoothly, and established a learning-based link prediction model that reflected the dynamic nature of the network. As a result, the 11 main variables acting on building a cooperative relationship between winning companies were derived and the effect of each variables on the probability value of cooperation between individual links was identified.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.44 no.6
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• pp.524-533
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• 2020

The free-trade-zone system has been implemented in industrial-complex-type free-trade zones with a focus on the manufacturing industry since 1970, and was intended to attract foreign investment and increase trade by providing benefits such as tax reduction and deregulation to tenant companies. However, foreign investment in these industrial-complex-type free trade zones has decreased significantly. On the other hand, port-type free-trade zones have great potential to attract foreign investment for development due to the increase in port traffic. The developmental trends in the free-trade-zone system have been studied primarily in the manufacturing industry, and those studies must be extended. In this paper, the role and operation of free-trade zones are examined and problems highlighted. We analyzed a business model specialized in port-type free-trade zones to identify problems, propose measures to improve the system for re-exporting domestic goods to the customs area for storage, and upgrade overall operations. The effects of our measures were analyzed by simple simulation. These proposed improvements in the operation of port-type free-trade zones will help attract foreign companies to these international logistics hubs and global delivery centers.