• Title/Summary/Keyword: 시장규모 추정

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Projecting Future Change in the Female Labor Force based on Historical Experiences of Other Developed Countries: Implications for the Effects of Changing Population Structure on the Size of the Workforce (선진국의 역사적 사례에 기초한 여성경제활동인구 변화 전망 : 인구구조 변화가 노동인력규모에 미치는 영향에 대한 함의)

  • Lee, Chulhee;Kim, Claire Kyu-yeon
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.1-29
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    • 2019
  • This study estimates how changes in the female (aged 25 to 54) labor force participation rate (LFPR) following the historical experiences of the US and Japan would alter the future trend of the female economically active population by 2065, compared to the case in which the LFPR as of 2018 will remain unchanged. According to the results, the female labor force aged 25 to 54 will increase by 14% (about 797,000) and 15% (about 831,000), respectively, by 2042 if the female LFPR should change following the past trends of the US and Japan. In particular, the increase in the labor force is expected to be pronounced among females aged 30 to 44 who currently suffer high rates of job severance. The results of this study strengthen the prediction that the on-going population changes will not reduce much the overall economically active population in the near future. The result of a simulation based on the historical experiences of Japan suggests that, as least in the near future, policy efforts to encourage female labor supply will be more effective in alleviating the potential labor-market impacts of population changes, compared to policies aiming at increasing old-age employment.

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A Study of a Model for Calculating Passing Sight Distance (추월시거 산정 모형에 관한 연구)

  • 김영호;손봉수;전경수
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.75-92
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    • 1997
  • 추월가능성을 판단하기 위해서 앞을 바라볼 수 있어야 하는 거리를 추월시거라 한다. 적절한 추원시거의 확보는 2차선 도로의 효율성과 운전자의 안전성 제고 및 도로설계시 매우 중요하다. 이러한 목적을 위하여 추월시거를 산정할 수 있는 여러 모형이 개발되었으나, 실제 교통상황을 반영하기에 많은 문제점을 안고 있음이 지적되고 있다. 따라서 본 논문은 기존 모형들의 이론적 배경을 고찰하고, 각 모형의 단점과 한계를 파악하여, 운전자의 실제 추월형태를 고려한 새로운 추월시거산정모형을 개발하는데 주안점을 두고 있다. 본 논문에서 개발한 PASS모형은 현재 미국에서 도로설계시 기준으로 사용되고 있는 AASHTO모형을 보완하여 구축하였다. 기존의 모형들은 서로 다른 조건을 가정하여 개발되었기 때문에 각 모형들의 추월시거 산정값을 비교분석하는데 어려움이 있다. 하지만 PASS모형은 운전자의 반응시간, 차량의 길이, 차량의 가속능력 등 실제 추월시거 산정시 반드시 고려해야 할 중요한 요소들을 특성치로 반영할 수 있게 함으로써 다양한 추월 상황과 현실적인 교통상황을 폭넓게 수용할 수 있는 장점을 갖고 있다. 본 논문에서는 새로 개발한 P SS모형을 이용하여 얻은 결과와 기존의 AASHTO모형, MUTCD모형, Glennon모형을 통해 얻은 결과를 비교하였으며, PASS모형에 우리나라 현실에 적합한 특성치를 적용하여 2차로 도로의 추월시거를 산정하였다. 이 결과 현재 우리나라 도로용량편람에서 제시하고 있는 추월기능구간 기준인 450m가 설계속도가 낮은 일반국도에는 타당함을 확인할수 있었다. 그러나, 설계속도가 높은 화물타의 운행빈도가 높은 고속국도의 경우, 재검토가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.기존의 광유계 윤활제에 비하여 대단히 고가하는 문제점을 갖고 있다. 그러나 윤활 마찰면의 다양화와 가혹한 사용조건은 자성유체 윤활제의 연구개발 필요성을 크게 증대시키고 있다.xed Effects Model)을 결정하고, 각각에 해당하는 통계모형을 구축하였다. 이 결과 (1) 업종 및 기업규모별로 그룹간에 유의한 특성이 발견되었으며, (2) R&D 및 광고투자는 기업의 시장성과를 설명하는 중요한 변수이나, (3) R&D 투자의 경우는 광고에 비해 불확실성이 존재하는 것으로 나타났고, (4) 수리모형에서 도출된 한계원리가 통계모형에서도 유효한 것으로 드러났다.등을 토대로 한 10대 산업을 육성하기 위하여 과학기술부는 기술수요조사를 바탕으로 49개 주요기술을 도출하여, 과학기술 일류 국가 실현, 국민소득 2만불 달성이라는 국가적 슬로건을 내걸고 “차세대 성장동력” 창출을 위한 범정부차원의 기획과 연구비의 집중투자를 추진하고 있다.달성하기 위해서는 종합류류 전산망의 시급한 구축과 함께 화물차의 적재율을 높이고 공차율을 낮출 수 있는 운송체계의 수립이 필요한 것으로 판단된다. 그라나 이러한 화물전용차선의 효과는 단기적인 치유책일 수밖에 없기 때문에 물류유통 시설의 확충을 위한 사회간접자본의 구축을 서둘러 시행하여야 할 것이다.으로 처리한 Machine oil, Phenthoate EC 및 Trichlorfon WP는 비교적 약효가 낮았다.>$^{\circ}$E/$\leq$30$^{\circ}$NW 단열군이 연구지역 내에서 지하수 유동성이 가장 높은 단열군으로 추정된다. 이러한 사실은 3개 시추공을 대상으로 실시한 시추공 내 물리검층과

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The Demand Estimation Studies for the Establishment of the Second Convention Center in Busan : With the emphasis on time series analysis and Huff model (부산광역시 제2전시컨벤션센터 건립을 위한 수요예측연구 - 시계열분석과 Huff모형을 중심으로 -)

  • Oh, Chang-Ho;Ha, Seuong-Bum
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.185-202
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    • 2017
  • This study suggests the estimation of the demand for the exhibition center in Busan and to valid reasons for the establishment of the 2nd Convention Center in Busan. The validity for the estimated demand is acquired by examining the studies conducted by the Ministry of Commerce Industry and Energy. The qualitative data for the phased establishment of the area is suggested in accordance to the results of the demand estimation. From previous study(Oh, 2017), Kangseo-gu, Busan has been evaluated to be the final candidate for building a new convention center in the city of Busan. The potential synergy effects of on-going developmental projects in Kangseo region is one of the influential factors for the MICE professionals' opinion in the qualitative analysis. Moreover, the region has available land to hold the facility of more than 100,000 square meter to overcome the current drawback of BEXCO, insufficient space to hold large events. Lastly, the expansion of Gimhae International Airport would bring an increased international flights that would also lead to an increase in MICE industry for the region. The virtual effect of the more than one million $m^2$-sized oconvention center is examined via Huff Model and the results suggests a logical estimated data for further demand needed for the south east regions, not just within the city of Busan.

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A Data Migration Model and Case Study for Building Management System of Science and Technology Contents (과학기술정보콘텐츠 통합관리시스템 구축을 위한 데이터 마이그레이션 모델 수립 및 적용 사례)

  • Shin, Sung-Ho;Lee, Min-Ho;Lee, Won-Goo;Yoon, Hwa-Mook;Sung, Won-Kyung;Kim, Kwang-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.123-135
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    • 2011
  • The domestic market of database in Korea is estimated to be over 3.663 trillion won. The data migration is getting to be more important along with the continuous growth of the database industry. g-CRM and private recommending function are examples of the service that can be given through coupling among customer database, product database, geographic information database, and others. The core infrastructure is also the database which is integrated, perfect, and reliable. There are not enough researches on efficient way of data migration and integrating process and investigation of migrated data though trends of database in IT environment as above. In connection with this issue, we have made a model for data migration on scientific and technological contents and suggest the result of data migration process adapting that model. In addition, we verified migration's exhaustiveness, migration's consistency, and migration's coherence for investigation of migrated data and database. From the result, we conclude data migration based on proper model has a significant influence on the database consistency and the data values correctness and is essential to maintain high qualified database.

The Economic Effects of Oil Tariff Reduction of Korea-GCC FTA based on VAR Model (VAR모형을 활용한 한-GCC FTA 체결 시 원유관세 인하의 경제적 효과 분석)

  • KIM, Da-Som;RA, Hee-Ryang
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.23-51
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    • 2016
  • This study analyzed the expected economic effects of the Korea-GCC FTA and sought strategies for industrial cooperation. To see the economic effects of Korea-GCC FTA, we analysed the effect of the oil tariff reduction of economy by Vector Autoregression(VAR) model. The estimation results shows that following the abolishment of the tariff on crude oil imports, GDP, GNI and consumption are expected to grow by 0.212%, 0.389% and 0.238%, respectively. Meanwhile, investment, export and import are estimated to drop by 0.462%, 0.413% and 0.342%, respectively. As for prices, producer prices are to rise by 6.356%p, whereas consumer prices fall by 2.996%p. In short, the Korea-GCC FTA and resultant abolishment of the tariff on crude oil imports followed by the decline in crude oil prices will result in declining prices whilst macroeconomic indices, such as GDP, GNI and consumption, will increase exerting positive effects on domestic economic growth. Also, it is necessary to proactively respond to GCC member states' industrial diversification policies for FTA-based industrial cooperation to diversify the sources of crude oil and natural gas imports for further resource risk management.

Economic Valuation of the Ecosystem Services in Seocheon Intertidal Mudflats (선택실험을 이용한 서천갯벌의 생태계서비스 경제가치 추정 연구)

  • Choi, Andy Sungnok;Oh, Chi-Ok
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.233-260
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    • 2018
  • The West Coast is known as one of the world's three largest intertidal mudflats but the mudflat ecosystems have been constantly destroyed by various reclamation projects and industrial complexes. This study intends to estimate the economic values of major ecosystem services provided by the Seocheon intertidal flats using a choice modeling method. The benefits of the intertidal flats are categorized as four different attributes: number of migratory birds (related to biodiversity and cultural services), production of fish and shellfish (regulating services and habitats), tourism activities (cultural services), and number of fishing households in local communities (cultural services). Study results show that the general public enjoys the economic benefits of 1.777 trillion won (900 million won/hectare) as of 2015 in order to preserve 1,200ha of Seocheon mudflat. Assuming that future generations continue to enjoy these economic benefits of mudflat conservation, the annual value converted is about 64.7 billion won/year, corresponding to 53.9 million won/hectare per year. Individuals are willing to pay are expected to maintain their entire life in the 1,000 households living in the Seocheon tidal-flat fishing village, with an average of 11,000 won per person and an additional 50,000 tourist activities per year. It was estimated to have the amount of payment of 9,000 won. An individual's marginal willingness to pay was estimated to be about 11,000 won per year for supporting a total of 1,000 fishing households, 6,000 won to provide tourism activities of 50,000 visitors, and 9,000 won to provide the habitats of 90,000 migratory birds. For segmentation analysis, residents of Seocheon did not place significant values for the attributes besides migratory bird conservation. However, those of Gunsan showed relatively low margtinal willingness to pay for conservation of migratory birds and fishing villages but showed similar preferences for the maintenance of tourism activities compared to the general public. The results imply that the introduction of economic incentive system is needed to effectively manage and conserve ecosystem services of specific intertidal flats.

자녀양육비의 추정

  • 김원년
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.28-38
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    • 1987
  • This paper was set out to study the structure of the career occupational mobility in the early and rapid phase of industrialization in Korea. By analyzing the individual life histories regarding occupational mobility and achievement, I propose a model of yearly career mobility of Korean men and Women during the period of 30 years between 1954 and 1983. With the occupational classification scheme of 5 groups - Upper Nonmanual, Lower Nonmanual, Self Employed, Manual, Farm - the mobility pattern in the person-year mobility table analyzed can be characterized primarily by the strong influence of immobility. The degree of immobility, however, is different by the occupational groups. The absolute amount of immobility can be summarized as being U-shaped. Overall, the pattern of mobility can be explained best by the concept of occupational distance. I then propose a model of relative career occupational mobility pattern that combines the conceptual and theoretical basis and the methodological rigor. The model is based on the notion of the reproduction of inequality, the labor market context, and the life history perspective. The model encompasses the 6 conceptual explanatory factors such as persistence effect, ceiling effect, traditional sector effect, nonmanual occupation effect, alternative mobility channel effect, and occupational distance effect, as well as the effects of both origin and destination occupations. The relative pattern of career mobiliity in Korea can be characterized by the following six findings. First, the persistence effect on the diagonal cells of the mobility table is dominant. Second, a clear evidence of the negative effect of occupational distance between nonmanual occupations and manual and farm occupations is found. Third, the out-mobility from farming took place regardless of the destination occupations. Fourth, the internal mobility within the nonmanual occupation block is high and bi-directional, and is exclusive against other occupations. Fifth, the 'self employed' occupation is serving a peculiar function in both inflow and outflow pattern. Last, the relative pattern of career occupation mobility is asymmetrical in terms of the upward and downward mobility.

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A Study on the Career Occupational Mobility in Korea (한국의 경력내 직업이동에 관한 연구)

  • 김병관
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.97-128
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    • 1997
  • This paper was set out to study the structure of the career occupational mobility in the early and rapid phase of industrialization in Korea. By analyzing the individual life histories regarding occupational mobility and achievement, I propose a model of yearly career mobility of Korean men and Women during the period of 30 years between 1954 and 1983. With the occupational classification scheme of 5 groups - Upper Nonmanual, Lower Nonmanual, Self Employed, Manual, Farm - the mobility pattern in the person-year mobility table analyzed can be characterized primarily by the strong influence of immobility. The degree of immobility, however, is different by the occupational groups. The absolute amount of immobility can be summarized as being U-shaped. Overall, the pattern of mobility can be explained best by the concept of occupational distance. I then propose a model of relative career occupational mobility pattern that combines the conceptual and theoretical basis and the methodological rigor. The model is based on the notion of the reproduction of inequality, the labor market context, and the life history perspective. The model encompasses the 6 conceptual explanatory factors such as persistence effect, ceiling effect, traditional sector effect, nonmanual occupation effect, alternative mobility channel effect, and occupational distance effect, as well as the effects of both origin and destination occupations. The relative pattern of career mobiliity in Korea can be characterized by the following six findings. First, the persistence effect on the diagonal cells of the mobility table is dominant. Second, a clear evidence of the negative effect of occupational distance between nonmanual occupations and manual and farm occupations is found. Third, the out-mobility from farming took place regardless of the destination occupations. Fourth, the internal mobility within the nonmanual occupation block is high and bi-directional, and is exclusive against other occupations. Fifth, the 'self employed' occupation is serving a peculiar function in both inflow and outflow pattern. Last, the relative pattern of career occupation mobility is asymmetrical in terms of the upward and downward mobility.

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Earnings Quality of Firms Selected as the Global Champ Project (글로벌 전문사업 선정기업의 이익의 질)

  • Gong, Kyung-Tae
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2018
  • This study aimed to examine earnings quality of firms selected as Global Champs project which has been promoted by the government since 2013 to support small and medium sized enterprises, for the screening year(t-1) and selected year(t). Earing quality is measured as the value of discretionary accruals estimated by Dechow et al.(1995) adjusted Jones model and Kothari et al.(2005) model, respectively. I analyze the differences of earning quality between the Global Champ firms and the paired firms selected through criteria of the similar total assets and the same industry in the screening year and the selected year. This study is motivated by the needs of measurement of the performance of the Project from the accounting transparent point of view. As the results of this study, major findings are summarized as follows. Firstly the earnings quality of the selected firms was lower than that of the paired firms. This can be explained as a result of motivation of earnings management by companies eager to meet the requirements to be selected for the Project. Secondly, in the selected year, the earnings quality was proved to improve, comparing to the screening year. This can be explained by the efforts of companies to reinforce management innovation and transparent management, which in turn led to positive effects on the earnings quality. These findings were found to be consistent in the additional analyses, where the earning quality of the reconstructed sample with only selected companies was compared for the screening year and the selected year, based on the year before the screening year(t-2).