• Title/Summary/Keyword: 시나리오 분석법

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LSTM Prediction of Streamflow during Peak Rainfall of Piney River (LSTM을 이용한 Piney River유역의 최대강우시 유량예측)

  • Kareem, Kola Yusuff;Seong, Yeonjeong;Jung, Younghun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2021
  • Streamflow prediction is a very vital disaster mitigation approach for effective flood management and water resources planning. Lately, torrential rainfall caused by climate change has been reported to have increased globally, thereby causing enormous infrastructural loss, properties and lives. This study evaluates the contribution of rainfall to streamflow prediction in normal and peak rainfall scenarios, typical of the recent flood at Piney Resort in Vernon, Hickman County, Tennessee, United States. Daily streamflow, water level, and rainfall data for 20 years (2000-2019) from two USGS gage stations (03602500 upstream and 03599500 downstream) of the Piney River watershed were obtained, preprocesssed and fitted with Long short term memory (LSTM) model. Tensorflow and Keras machine learning frameworks were used with Python to predict streamflow values with a sequence size of 14 days, to determine whether the model could have predicted the flooding event in August 21, 2021. Model skill analysis showed that LSTM model with full data (water level, streamflow and rainfall) performed better than the Naive Model except some rainfall models, indicating that only rainfall is insufficient for streamflow prediction. The final LSTM model recorded optimal NSE and RMSE values of 0.68 and 13.84 m3/s and predicted peak flow with the lowest prediction error of 11.6%, indicating that the final model could have predicted the flood on August 24, 2021 given a peak rainfall scenario. Adequate knowledge of rainfall patterns will guide hydrologists and disaster prevention managers in designing efficient early warning systems and policies aimed at mitigating flood risks.

Relationship Between Sleep Quality and Depression Symptoms in Psychiatric Patients: Mediating Effect Interpretation Bias for Ambiguity and Anxiety Symptoms (정신건강의학과 환자의 수면의 질과 우울 증상의 관계: 모호함에 대한 해석 편향과 불안 증상의 매개효과)

  • Hyerin, Lee;Eunkyeong, Kim;Joonho, Choi;Seon-Cheol, Park
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.137-144
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    • 2022
  • Objectives : This study was designed to investigate the effect of sleep quality on depression symptoms and the mediating effect of interpretation bias and anxiety symptoms in psychiatric patients. Methods : Data accumulated for outpatients and inpatients in the Department of Mental Health Medicine at Hanyang University Guri Hospital were used. The measurement tools were Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), Ambiguous/Unambiguous Situations Diary-Extended Version (AUSD-EX), Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI), Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II). Correlation analysis and bootstrapping analysis were conducted using SPSS 25.0 and SPSS Macro based on 162 patient data. Results : As a result of the study, the double mediating effect of interpretation bias for Ambiguity and anxiety symptoms was significant in the relationship between sleep quality and depression symptoms. Conclusions : In this study, it was confirmed that low sleep quality sequentially affects anxiety and depression symptoms through interpretation bias for ambiguity. Based on this, it is expected that the development of other psychiatric symptoms can be prevented by preferentially performing therapeutic intervention on preceding symptoms.

Relationship Between Hopelessness and Suicidal Ideation Among Psychiatric Patients: The Mediating Effect of Sleep Quality and Interpretation Bias for Ambiguity (정신건강의학과 환자의 절망감과 자살사고의 관계: 수면의 질과 모호함에 대한 해석 편향의 매개효과)

  • Somi Yun;Eunkyung Kim;Daeho Kim;Yongchon Park
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.100-107
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    • 2023
  • Objectives : This study aimed to examine the mediating effect of sleep quality and interpretation bias for ambiguity in the relationship between hopelessness and suicidal ideation in psychiatric patients. Methods : A total of 231 psychiatric outpatients and inpatients completed the Beck Hopelessness Scale, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, Ambiguous/Unambiguous Situations Diary-Extended Version, and Ultra-Short Suicidal Ideation Scale. Data analysis was conducted using regression analyses and bootstrap sampling. Results : The results of this study showed that hopelessness had a direct effect on suicidal ideation, and that sleep quality and interpretation bias for ambiguity mediated the association between hopelessness and suicidal ideation. Moreover, there was a significant double mediating effect of sleep quality and interpretation bias for ambiguity on the relationship between hopelessness and suicidal ideation. Conclusions : These results suggest that it is important to consider both sleep quality and interpretation bias for ambiguity to prevent hopelessness from leading to suicidal idea. These results suggest that considering both sleep quality and interpretation bias for ambiguity may be important in preventing hopelessness from leading to suicidal ideation.

Economic Perspectives on Online Platforms: Scenario-based Case Studies (플랫폼 서비스 가치와 수수료에 대한 경제적 고찰)

  • Kyeonghan Bae;YeonSu Park;JungWon Park;Jiyoung Alex Kim
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.117-132
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    • 2023
  • With the recent spread of COVID-19, the size of the online shopping market continues to increase, and various online platforms are appearing in the market, and many small and medium businesses are entering the platform. As the recent increase in the use of the platform by small andmedium businesses as raised the issue of appropriate platform fees, the need for social discussions on the use of the platform and fees is raised. Currently, most discussions regarding fees primarily focus on specific cases from a negative perspective, and discussions that comprehensively consider the platform's utilization value and fees are insufficient. Therefore, this study aims to systematically and comprehensively understand platform fees by considering the value of using platform services and commission costs together. To achieve this, the economic value of each platform service was estimated and analyzed in detail. It selected two industries that are actively using online platforms, delivery services and e-commerce, and paid attention to changes in expected profits generated by sellers using platform services, and compared and analyzed expected profits based on estimated sales and costs for each scenario, such as whether sellers entered the platform and whether they used the service. As a result of the study, our results that entering the platform and using the platform service enable sales increase and cost reduction, which have a positive effect on the seller's expected profit. Through this study, we intend to understand platform fees from the perspective of user fees for platform service use and value acquisition, and based on this, estimate the economic value of platform services and fees to expand the value and cost of using platform services to a comprehensive and systematic discussion.

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Economic evaluation of a weekly administration of a sustained-release injection of recombinant human growth hormone for the treatment of children with growth hormone deficiency (소아 성장호르몬결핍증 치료에 사용되는 성장호르몬 서방형 주사제의 경제성 평가)

  • Kang, Hye-Young;Kim, Duk Hee;Yang, Sei-Won;Kim, Yoon-Nam;Kim, Miseon
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.52 no.11
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    • pp.1249-1259
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    • 2009
  • Purpose:From a societal perspective, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a novel sustained-release injection of recombinant human growth hormone (GH) administered on a weekly basis compared with that of the present daily GH injection for the treatment of children with GH deficiency. Methods:Health-related utility for GH therapy was measured based on the visual analogue scale. During July 2008, caregivers of 149 children receiving GH therapy form 2 study sites participated in a web-based questionnaire survey. The survey required the caregivers to rate their current subjective utility with daily GH injections or expected utility of weekly GH injections. Because there was no difference in the costs of the daily and weekly therapies, for the purposes of this study, only drug acquisition costs were considered. Results:Switching from daily to weekly injection of GH increased the utility from 0.584 to 0.784 and incurred an extra cost of 4,060,811 Korean won (KW) per year. The incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) for a base case was 20,305,055 KW per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Scenario analyses showed that the ICUR ranged from 15,751,198 to 25,489,929 KW per QALY. Conclusion:The ICUR for a base case and worst case scenario analyses ranged from 0.85 to 1.37-times per capita gross domestic product of Korea, which is considered to be within the generally accepted willingness-to-pay threshold. Thus, it is concluded that switching from daily to weekly injection of GH would be cost-effective.

Psychological Stability Color for The Fire Escape Mobile App (심리적 안정감을 주는 화재 피난 모바일 앱(App) 컬러연구)

  • Lee, Sang ki;Park, Hae Rim
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.106-116
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    • 2022
  • As part of the Fire Evacuation Service scenario using mobile applications, this study aims to find the appropriate colors to be used in the interface of the application and to define and apply colors that can positively and reliably affect human unstable psychology in the course of evacuating the room in case of fire. In the situation of fire, proper design and placement of the colored escape guidance interface is important, taking into account the psychology of the occupants. However, literature and previous research have shown that colors used to induce evacuation are not suitable for effective evacuation in case of fire. In this study, the purpose of the study was to provide a color that would provide psychological stability in the event of a evacuation in consideration of the psychological issues of those who are still in need of shelter, and to use it to help induce an efficient evacuation in the event of a disaster. Using the image evaluation method, the form and color of images have been derived through frequency analysis to a number of unspecified people, and the main and secondary colors of images were analyzed through KSCA color analysis. Finally, the final application color was constructed through mutual verification between the results by comparing and analyzing the colors obtained through the image evaluation analysis results and the KSCA color analysis results. The results of the study showed that the green line can help stabilize the human mind through comparative analysis with prior research. Therefore, the main color for guiding calm and calm applications in case of fire escape is proposed in the green line. In this study, the experiment with image evaluation cannot accurately measure the effect of factors on color among complex factors. A subsequent study of this will help quantify images if it allows the subject matter of color and image to be defined to some extent through factor analysis.

Numerical Analysis of the Change in Groundwater System with Tunnel Excavation in Discontinuous Rock Mass (불연속 암반에서의 터널굴착에 따른 지하수체계 변화에 대한 수치해석적 연구)

  • Park, Jung-Wook;Son, Bong-Ki;Lee, Chung-In;Song, Jae-Joon
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.44-57
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    • 2008
  • In this study, a 2D finite-element analysis, using the SEEP/W program, was carried out to estimate the amount of groundwater flawing into a tunnel, as well as the groundwater tables around wetland areas during and after a tunnel excavation through rock mass. Four sites along the Wonhyo-tunnel in Cheonseong Mountain (Gyeongnam, Korea) were analysed, where the model damain of the tunnel included both wetland and fault zone. The anisotropy of the hydraulic conductivities of the rock mass was calculated using the DFN model, and then used as an input parameter for the cantinuum model. Parametric study on the influencing factors was perofrmed to minimize uncertainties in the hydraulic properties. Moreover, the volumetric water content and hydraulic conductivity functions were applied ta the model to reflect the ability of a medium ta store and transport water under both saturated and unsaturated conditions. The conductivity of fault zone was assumed ta be $10^{-5}m/sec\;or\;10^{-6}m/sec$ and the conductivity of grouting zone was assumed as 1/10, 1/50 or 1/100 of the conductivity of rock mass. Totally $6{\sim}8$ cases of transient flow simulation were peformed at each site. The hydraulic conductivities of fault zone showed a significant influence on groundwater inflow when the fault zone crossed the tunnel. Also, groundwater table around wetland maintained in case that the hydraulic conductivity of grouting zone was reduced ta be less than 1/50 of the hydraulic conductivity of rock mass.

A Signal Optimization Model Integrating Traffic Movements and Pedestrian Crossings (차량과 보행자 동시신호최적화모형 개발 연구)

  • Shin, Eon-Kyo;Kim, Ju-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.7 s.78
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    • pp.131-137
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    • 2004
  • Conventional traffic signal optimization models assume that green intervals for pedestrian crossings are given as exogenous inputs such as minimum green intervals for straight-ahead movements. As the result, in reality, the green intervals of traffic movements may not distribute adequately by the volume/saturation-flow of them. In this paper, we proposed signal optimization models formulated in BMILP to integrate pedestrian crossings into traffic movements under under-saturated traffic flow. The model simultaneously optimizes traffic and pedestrian movements to minimize weighted queues of primary queues during red interval and secondary queues during queue clearance time. A set of linear objective function and constraints set up to ensure the conditions with respect to pedestrian and traffic maneuvers. Numerical examples are given by pedestrian green intervals and the number of pedestrian crossings located at an arm. Optimization results illustrated that pedestrian green intervals using proposed models are greater than those using TRANSYT-7F, but opposite in the ratios of pedestrian green intervals to the cycle lengths. The simulation results show that proposed models are superior to TRANSYT-7F in reducing delay, where the longer the pedestrian green interval the greater the effect.

Development of Urban Flood Forecasting Model using Statistical Method (통계학적 기법을 이용한 도시홍수 예.경보모형의 개발)

  • Lee, Beum-Hee;Lim, Jong-Il
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.805-809
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    • 2007
  • 최근 도시의 발달은 하상공간에 대한 이용도를 높이는 방향으로 개발이 진행되어가는 추세이며, 하상도로 및 하상주차장의 이용은 이제 도시 내에서 이용 가능한 마지막 여유 공간으로 인식될 정도로 그 의존도가 높아져가고 있다. 그러나 하상공간의 활용도가 높아져갈수록 도시홍수의 발생으로 인한 대피문제가 발생하게 되고 돌발홍수로 인하여 하상도로의 차단 혹은 하상 주차장에 주차된 차량의 소거가 늦어지는 경우 고스란히 피해를 보게 되는 등 그 부작용도 계속 증가되고 있다. 도시홍수의 특성을 살펴보면 국지성 돌발 강우에 의한 유량의 급격한 증가와 짧은 유하시간, 작은 유역면적 등에 의하여 주요 예보지점까지의 도달시간이 매우 짧아 수문학적 홍수예측 모형을 이용하여 홍수예측 업무를 수행하는데 선행시간을 충분히 확보할 수 없다는 단점을 지니고 있다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 기존의 하천시스템에 대한 설계 등을 목적으로 하여 모형의 적용을 통한 시뮬레이션 기법을 적용하고 이를 통하여 홍수 예경보를 발령하기에는 선행시간의 확보(대피시간의 확보)라는 측면에서 상당한 어려움을 지닐 수 있으므로 시시각각으로 측정되는 실시간 수위측정 자료 및 실시간 강우자료를 이용하여 모형의 수행과정을 생략하고 하천의 수위변동을 직접 예측하고 대피할 수 있는 시나리오 기반의 수문모형을 개발하였다. SPSS를 사용한 통계학적 모형을 대전광역시 3대 하천에 대하여 적용한 결과 예측자료가 실측자료를 고수위 및 저수위 부근에서 정확히 모의하지 못하는 경향이 나타났으나 경계 및 위험수위를 설정하고 이를 넘어가는 시점에 대한 예측을 하는 홍수경보 시점 예측에는 효율적인 적용성을 나타내었다.씬 간편하면서도 정확도가 높아서, 환경방사성 스트론튬의 정량분석에 적절히 사용될 수 있다.e form of Jones matrix, which allows a new interpretation in the conversion efficiency of the thin-film optical waveguides.있다는 장점이 있었다. 따라서 소아에서 복막투석도관 수술 시 복강경적 방법을 이용하는 것이 효율적인 복막 투석을 위해 유용하다고 생각된다.상부 방광천자에 비해 민감도 59.5%(25/42), 특이도 86.6%(13/15)였고 위양성률 13.3%(2/15), 위음성률 40.5%(17/42) 로 정확도가 낮았다. 결론 : 소변을 가리지 못하는 영유아에서 요로 감염을 진단하기 위해서는 도뇨관 채뇨에 비해 초음파 감시하 치골상부 방광천자가 정확하고 안전한 채뇨법으로 권장되어야 한다고 생각한다.應裝置) 및 운용(運用)에 별다른 어려움이 없고, 내열성(耐熱性)이 강(强)하므로 쉬운 조건하(條件下)에서 경제적(經濟的)으로 공업적(工業的) 이용(利用)에 유리(有利)하다고 판단(判斷)되어진다.reatinine은 함량이 적었다. 관능검사결과(官能檢査結果) 자가소화(自家消化)시킨 크릴간장은 효소(酵素)처리한 것이나 재래식 콩간장에 비하여 품질 면에서 손색이 없고 저장성(貯藏性)이 좋은 크릴간장을 제조(製造)할 수 있다는 결론을 얻었다.이 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.에 착안하여 침전시 슬러지층과 상등액의 온도차를 측정하여 대사열량의 발생량을 측정하고 슬러지의 활성을 측정할 수 있는 방법을 개발하였다.enin과 Rhaponticin의 작용(作用)에 의(依)한 것이며,

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A Case Study for Applying Linear Programming to Analyze The Effects of The Desired Future Conditions for Forest Functions on Forest Management (산림기능별 목표임상 조건이 산림경영에 미치는 영향분석을 위한 선형계획기법 적용 연구)

  • Jang, Kwangmin;Won, Hyun-Kyu;Seol, A Ra;Chung, Joosang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.98 no.3
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    • pp.247-254
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    • 2009
  • In this study, linear programming was applied to a case study in Gwangreung Experimental Forest of Korea Forest Research Institute investigating the effect of the desired future conditions on forest management. Considering the social, economic and ecological demands of people from the forest, the forest functions were classified into four including natural conservation, timber production, water yield and scenic conservation. The forest land areas were divided into four-types of forest functional zones and forest management prescriptions including the desired future conditions by the forest function type were established. The Model II linear programming was used in optimizing the forest management planning. The model includes management policies, as the constraints, for non-declining yield, allowable cutting area, allowable % age class distribution and allowable % species allocation as well as the land and other accounting regimes. Maximization of timber production was used the objective function. Based on the Model II formulations, the effects of the desired future conditions by the forest function type on forest management planning were investigated in terms of timber production, net present value and stand structures over time.