• Title/Summary/Keyword: 시나리오 기법

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Feasibility of Stochastic Weather Data as an Input to Plant Phenology Models (식물계절모형 입력자료로서 확률추정 기상자료의 이용 가능성)

  • Kim, Dae-Jun;Chung, U-Ran;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2012
  • Daily temperature data produced by harmonic analysis of monthly climate summary have been used as an input to plant phenology model. This study was carried out to evaluate the performance of the harmonic based daily temperature data in prediction of major phenological developments and to apply the results in improving decision support for agricultural production in relation to the climate change scenarios. Daily maximum and minimum temperature data for a climatological normal year (Jan. 1 to Dec. 31, 1971-2000) were produced by harmonic analysis of the monthly climate means for Seoul weather station. The data were used as inputs to a thermal time - based phenology model to predict dormancy, budburst, and flowering of Japanese cherry in Seoul. Daily temperature measurements at Seoul station from 1971 to 2000 were used to run the same model and the results were compared with the harmonic data case. Leaving no information on annual variation aside, the harmonic based simulation showed 25 days earlier release from endodormancy, 57 days longer period for maximum cold tolerance, delayed budburst and flowering by 14 and 13 days, respectively, compared with the simulation based on the observed data. As an alternative to the harmonic data, 30 years daily temperature data were generated by a stochastic process (SIMMETEO + WGEN) using climatic summary of Seoul station for 1971-2000. When these data were used to simulate major phenology of Japanese cherry for 30 years, deviations from the results using observed data were much less than the harmonic data case: 6 days earlier dormancy release, 10 days reduction in maximum cold tolerance period, only 3 and 2 days delay in budburst and flowering, respectively. Inter-annual variation in phenological developments was also in accordance with the observed data. If stochastically generated temperature data could be used in agroclimatic mapping and zoning, more reliable and practical aids will be available to climate change adaptation policy or decision makers.

Development of Examination Model of Weather Factors on Garlic Yield Using Big Data Analysis (빅데이터 분석을 활용한 마늘 생산에 미치는 날씨 요인에 관한 영향 조사 모형 개발)

  • Kim, Shinkon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.480-488
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    • 2018
  • The development of information and communication technology has been carried out actively in the field of agriculture to generate valuable information from large amounts of data and apply big data technology to utilize it. Crops and their varieties are determined by the influence of the natural environment such as temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours. This paper derives the climatic factors affecting the production of crops using the garlic growth process and daily meteorological variables. A prediction model was also developed for the production of garlic per unit area. A big data analysis technique considering the growth stage of garlic was used. In the exploratory data analysis process, various agricultural production data, such as the production volume, wholesale market load, and growth data were provided from the National Statistical Office, the Rural Development Administration, and Korea Rural Economic Institute. Various meteorological data, such as AWS, ASOS, and special status data, were collected and utilized from the Korea Meteorological Agency. The correlation analysis process was designed by comparing the prediction power of the models and fitness of models derived from the variable selection, candidate model derivation, model diagnosis, and scenario prediction. Numerous weather factor variables were selected as descriptive variables by factor analysis to reduce the dimensions. Using this method, it was possible to effectively control the multicollinearity and low degree of freedom that can occur in regression analysis and improve the fitness and predictive power of regression analysis.

Analysis of Environmental Impacts for the Biochar Production and Soil Application (폐목재를 이용한 바이오차 생산 및 토양적용의 환경평가)

  • Kim, Mihyung;Kim, Geonha
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.36 no.7
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    • pp.461-468
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    • 2014
  • Biochar is a carbon rich solid produced by the pyrolysis of biomass such as energy crops, forestry residues, and wood wastes. Biochar returned to soil is to mitigate climate change and the feedstock of wood wastes reduces fossil fuel consumption as well as disposal costs. This study was practiced to evaluate a biochar system by gasification in terms of global warming regarding the soil application of the produced biochar. Life cycle assessment methodology was used to analyze the environmental impacts of the system, and the functional unit was 1 tonne of wood wastes. The result shows that the biochar system by using wood wastes as feedstock produces 4.048E-01 $kgCO_2-eq$ from the pre-treatment process as chipping and drying, 4.579E-01 $kgCO_2-eq$ from the pyrolysis process, and 9.070E-02 $kgCO_2-eq$ from the spreading to agricultural land, therefore total 9.534E-01 $kgCO_2-eq$ are generated. About 252 kg of $CO_2$ is still stored in the produced biochar in soil after carbon offsetting of the system. Therefore, the net carbon of the system is -251 kg of $CO_2-eq$.

Contents Recommendation Search System using Personalized Profile on Semantic Web (시맨틱 웹에서 개인화 프로파일을 이용한 콘텐츠 추천 검색 시스템)

  • Song, Chang-Woo;Kim, Jong-Hun;Chung, Kyung-Yong;Ryu, Joong-Kyung;Lee, Jung-Hyun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.318-327
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    • 2008
  • With the advance of information technologies and the spread of Internet use, the volume of usable information is increasing explosively. A content recommendation system provides the services of filtering out information that users do not want and recommending useful information. Existing recommendation systems analyze the records and patterns of Web connection and information demanded by users through data mining techniques and provide contents from the service provider's viewpoint. Because it is hard to express information on the users' side such as users' preference and lifestyle, only limited services can be provided. The semantic Web technology can define meaningful relations among data so that information can be collected, processed and applied according to purpose for all objects including images and documents. The present study proposes a content recommendation search system that can update and reflect personalized profiles dynamically in semantic Web environment. A personalized profile is composed of Collector that contains the characteristics of the profile, Aggregator that collects profile data from various collectors, and Resolver that interprets profile collectors specific to profile characteristic. The personalized module helps the content recommendation server make regular synchronization with the personalized profile. Choosing music as a recommended content, we conduct an experience on whether the personalized profile delivers the content to the content recommendation server according to a service scenario and the server provides a recommendation list reflecting the user's preference and lifestyle.

Development of Satellite and Terrestrial Convergence Technology for Internet Services on High-Speed Trains (Service Scenarios) (고속열차대상의 위성인터넷 서비스 제공을 위한 위성무선연동 기술(서비스 시나리오 관점))

  • Shin, Min-Su;Chang, Dae-Ig;Lee, Ho-Jin
    • Journal of Satellite, Information and Communications
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.69-74
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    • 2007
  • Recently, the demands for the satellite broadband mobile communication services are increased. To provide these services, mobile satellite communication systems for the passengers or crews on the high-speed moving vehicles, are being developed for the last several years especially in the Europe and North America. However, most of these systems can provide only several hundred kbps of transmission rate and this is not enough performance to provide satellite internet service for the group users such as passengers on the high-speed train. Moreover, service availability with these systems is limited to be rather low because they don't have any countermeasure scheme for the N-LOS environment which happens often along the railway. This paper describes mobile broadband satellite communication system, which is on the development, to provide high data-rate internet services to the high-speed trains. This system is applied with the inter-networking scenarios of both satellite/terrestrial network and satellite/gap-filler network so that it can provide seamless service even in the train operating environment, and these inter-networking schemes result in high service availability. And this system also has the countermeasure schemes, such as upper layer FEC and antenna diversity, for the short fading which is occurred periodically on the railway due to the power supplying structures so that it can provide high speed internet services. Mobile DVB-S2 technology which is now being standardized in the DVB is used for the forward-link transmission and DVB-RCS for the return-link.

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Improvement of Hydrologic Dam Risk Analysis Model Considering Uncertainty of Hydrologic Analysis Process (수문해석과정의 불확실성을 고려한 수문학적 댐 위험도 해석 기법 개선)

  • Na, Bong-Kil;Kim, Jin-Young;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Lim, Jeong-Yeul
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.10
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    • pp.853-865
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    • 2014
  • Hydrologic dam risk analysis depends on complex hydrologic analyses in that probabilistic relationship need to be established to quantify various uncertainties associated modeling process and inputs. However, the systematic approaches to uncertainty analysis for hydrologic risk analysis have not been addressed yet. In this paper, two major innovations are introduced to address this situation. The first is the use of a Hierarchical Bayesian model based regional frequency analysis to better convey uncertainties associated with the parameters of probability density function to the dam risk analysis. The second is the use of Bayesian model coupled HEC-1 rainfall-runoff model to estimate posterior distributions of the model parameters. A reservoir routing analysis with the existing operation rule was performed to convert the inflow scenarios into water surface level scenarios. Performance functions for dam risk model was finally employed to estimate hydrologic dam risk analysis. An application to the Dam in South Korea illustrates how the proposed approach can lead to potentially reliable estimates of dam safety, and an assessment of their sensitivity to the initial water surface level.

Development of response terms for contaminant transport in two-dimensional model for mixing analysis of toxic chemicals in rivers (하천에 유입된 유해화학물질의 혼합 해석을 위한 2차원 오염물질 이동모형 반응항 개발)

  • Shin, Dongbin;Shin, Jaehyun;Seo, Il Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.141-154
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    • 2020
  • The accidents of toxic chemical spill into rivers are increasing in recent years due to expansion of heavy industries in Korea. In order to respond to the chemical spills, accident response systems have been established for both main rivers and tributary rivers. However, since these accident response system adopted the water quality models imported from the foreign countries, it is difficult to acquire the model parameters and to calibrate and validate the water quality models. Therefore, this study developed a depth-averaged two-dimensional river water quality model to analyze the behavior of hazardous chemicals in rivers and proposed an efficient simulation execution framework by identifying the significant reaction mechanisms considering the characteristics of the toxic chemicals. The depth-averaged two-dimensional river water quality model CTM-2D was upgraded by adding reaction terms representing mechanisms of the adsorption, desorption, and volatilization of toxic chemicals. In order to verify the model, the analytical solution was compared with the numerical solution, and results showed that the error was less than 0.1%. In addition, the model was applied to a virtual scenario which is a water pollution accident at the confluence of the Nakdong River - Kumho River, and model results showed that an efficient simulation could be carried out by activating only significant reactions which were assessed by the sensitivity analysis.

Proposal of Prediction Technique for Future Vegetation Information by Climate Change using Satellite Image (위성영상을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 미래 식생정보 예측 기법 제안)

  • Ha, Rim;Shin, Hyung-Jin;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.58-69
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    • 2007
  • The vegetation area that occupies 76% in land surface of the earth can give a considerable impact on water resources, environment and ecological system by future climate change. The purpose of this study is to predict future vegetation cover information from NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) extracted from satellite images. Current vegetation information was prepared from monthly NDVI (March to November) extracted from NOAA AVHRR (1994 - 2004) and Terra MODIS (2000 - 2004) satellite images. The NDVI values of MODIS for 5 years were 20% higher than those of NOAA. The interrelation between NDVIs and monthly averaged climate factors (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, sunshine hour, wind velocity, and relative humidity) for 5 river basins of South Korea showed that the monthly NDVIs had high relationship with monthly averaged temperature. By linear regression, the future NDVIs were estimated using the future mean temperature of CCCma CGCM2 A2 and B2 climate change scenario. The future vegetation information by NOAA NDVI showed little difference in peak value of NDVI, but the peak time was shifted from July to August and maintained high NDVIs to October while the present NDVI decrease from September. The future MODIS NDVIs showed about 5% increase comparing with the present NDVIs from July to August.

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Risk-based Safety Impact Assessment for Construction Projects (위험도 접근방법에 의한 건설사업 안전영향평가방안에 관한 연구)

  • Choi Hyun-Ho;Jung Pyung-Ki;Seo Jong-Won;Choi Ook
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.504-509
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    • 2004
  • Safety assessment of construction projects may be affected by various factors such as types and scale of projects, construction methods, procedure, climactic, and site conditions etc. Presently, in planning and design phases, designers are still often uncertain of their responsibilities, l3i]I information and training of safety. Therefore, designers are still failing to exploit the potential that have to eliminate and reduce risks on site. In this study, the concepts of safety impact assessment is introduced in order to derive the performing design for safety in design phase. For this purpose, a framework for safety impact assessment model using risk-based approach for construction projects is suggested. The suggested model includes of information survey and scenarios, classification of safety impact factors occurred by design and construction, and quantitative estimation of magnitude and frequency. Moreover, the checklist which is enable to identify relationship between safety impact factors and design factors is developed and the methodology of safety impact assessment model using risk-based approach is also proposed.

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A Development of Consequence Analysis System for Combustible Materials Release Events Based on HTML5 Web (HTML5 웹 기반 가연성 물질 누출 피해영향평가 시스템 개발)

  • Lee, Ugwiyeon;Ji, Hyunmin;Oh, Jeongseok;Cho, Wansu
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.39-60
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    • 2019
  • Korea Gas Safety Corporation is developing consequence analysis system for combustible materials release events to enhance risk assessment technology and its efficiency. Unlike general consequence analysis programs, the final consequence area was implemented through ETA analysis based on API-581 standard, and a convenient user interface was constructed based on HTML5-based responsive web technology. In addition, a phase equilibrium module using third-order state equations (such as Peng-Robinson, SRK, and RK) and fugecity was implemented to analyze the mixture quality. Also. using the consequence analysis algorithm introduced in CCPS books and TNO Yellow Book, we developed material leak analysis module, fireball, pool fire, jet fire, flash fire, and vapor cloud explosion consequence assessment module. In addition, the conditions for calculating the safety distance were prepared with using the control values in the EIGA standard, PAC, and Bevi Reference Book.