• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.29-48
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• 2012

As the complexity and uncertainty of social and economic systems increase, the strategic foresight that actively and effectively responds to the environmental changes becomes important. A wide range of future forecasting methods are available for strategic foresight. Selecting one of the methods depends on several factors such as availability of time and financial resources and the objectives of the exercise. Although trend extrapolation analysis has been used for many years, scenario planning is being widely used by government and corporate as a tool for strategic decision making in recent years. Generally, scenario planning is carried out through workshop, in which experts with diverse backgrounds exchange information, views, and insights and integrate the diverse viewpoints. However, only a small number of experts can participate in a workshop and citizen opinion is not easily transformed into the policy for the scenario exercise due to the limitation of budget and short duration of a project. It is also much harder to develop creative ideas in the workshop because of the limited time and space. In this study, a new scenario process combining scenario workshop and wiki is proposed to overcome the limitation of scenario workshop. This combined approach can be more productive than using scenario workshop alone when developing new ideas. In this study, we applied the combined approach to develop scenarios for the strategic foresight of future media and present suggestions for improving the process.

• Journal of Information Management
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.169-197
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• 2012

Patents are an up-to-date and reliable source of technological knowledge, and thus patent analysis has been considered to be a necessary step for identifying evolving technological trends and planning technology strategies. Although there exist many research papers and technical reports concerning patent analysis, few empirical studies on planning technology strategies for uncertain futures from a national or company perspective have been rarely conducted. Therefore, this paper aims presenting a procedure and its practical case of planning future technology strategies by incorporating patent analysis and scenario planning. Using patents related to polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells, this paper developed technology strategies corresponding to future scenarios. We expect that the proposed method and case study can assist knowledge services of experts in the long-term technology strategy planning process.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2010.11a
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• pp.419-430
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• 2010

• Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.1-12
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• 2023

This study forecasts the outlook 10 years from now regarding domestic labor and caregiving by the Baby Boomer generation and the preparations needed in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The scenario-planning method was used to explore changing trends in domestic labor and caregiving, the rationale for which has been questioned by both seniors and family welfare experts. Based on the results of the survey and our researchers' opinions, it was concluded that the changing trends were caused by two factors: the probability of alterations in domestic labor and the strength of family relationships. On the basis of these conclusions, four scenarios regarding baby boomers' domestic labor and caregiving in 10 years were proposed using two axes: the "high and low probability of alterations" and the "strengthening and weakening of family relationships." The first scenario is a "preference for the self-caring form of family," which has a high probability of domestic labor alterations and weak family relationships. The second scenario is a "preference for the flexible form of family," which has a high probability of domestic labor alterations and strong family relationships. The third scenario is a "preference for the traditional form of family," which has a low probability of domestic labor alterations and strong family relationships. The fourth scenario is a "preference for the public caregiving form of family," which has a low probability of domestic labor alterations and weak family relationships. These results provide basic information about the various aspects of baby boomers' lives-including the development of various goods and services, the establishment of policies regarding seniors, and programs for successful aging-and can help equip our society to take the actions needed for a super-aged population.

• 한국경영정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.06a
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• pp.64-70
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• 2008

본 연구는 온라인 게임 산업의 구조적인 변화와 IPTV 환경변화에 초점을 두고 IPTV 도입에 따른 게임 산업의 변화를 시나리오 플래닝을 통해 제시해 보았다. 분석의 절차는 IPTV 도입과 관련하여 온라인 게임 산업에서 제기 되고 있는 핵심이슈들을 선별하고 각 이슈 별로 주요 추세와 불확실성요인들을 분석하여 IPTV 도입에 따른 온라인 게임 산업의 변화 양상을 논리적인 시나리오들로 제시하였다. 그리고 미래 발생 가능한 시나리오에 따른 온라인 게임 업체들의 전략적 대응 방안의 방향성을 제시하였다.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.27-40
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• 2013

This study is about development of technology system for an advanced deep-sea unmanned underwater robot of S. Korea analysed by the application of scenario planning. It was developed a 6000m class next-generation deep-sea unmanned underwater vehicle(or robot, UUV) system, soonly ROV 'Hemire' and Depressor 'Henuvy' in 2006 at S. Korea and motion control, adaptive control algolithm, a work-space manipulator control algolithm, especially the underwater inertial-acoustic navigation system robust to initial errors and sensor failures. But there are remained matters on position tracking of the USBL, inertial-acoustic navigation system, attitude sensor, designed sonar sensors. So this study suggest the new idea for settle the matters and then this idea help the development of the underwater inertial-acoustic navigation system robust to initial errors and sensor failures, such as acoustic signal drop-out, by modifying the error covariance of the failed sonar signal when drop-out occurs. As a result, the future policy for deep-sea unmanned underwater robot of S. Korea is to further spur the development of new technology and more improvement of the technology level for deep-sea unmanned underwater robot system with indicator and imaginary wall as external device.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.14 no.8
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• pp.203-209
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• 2016

The advertising media is undergoing a dramatic change mainly due to the increased use of smartphone. This study predicts the future of the advertising industry driven by the mobile advertising using scenario planning. Targeting technologies, restriction on the use of personal information, and overcoming ad avoidance were selected as key uncertain variables expected to impact on the growth of the mobile advertising 5 years later. With the support by expert interviews, the $2{\times}2$ matric combines two cases to generate four scenarios; the one whether mobile ads surpass PC-based online ads, the other whether the combined force of mobile and PC-based ads surpass the traditional media in advertising spendings. Each scenario is articulated according to the future of key variables. The most likely scenario is that mobile will dominate the advertising media market. However, it is important not to ignore different scenarios because key variables evolves in unexpected manner and then they can become reality. The future research will combine its key variables with social and economic ones and segment technical variables in more details.

• Archives of design research
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.265-276
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• 2004

User experience in web site is beyond Usability, and should be understood in a context. However, the concrete contextual factors of web site experience is not systematically established enough. Therefore, the objective of this research is to establish a framework of mapping experiential context factors with analyzing real web site use cases, and to propose how it is can be applied in the process of web site contents planning. First of all, theoretical framework for the web experience and contextual factors was prepared by secondary research. Second, user experience on music casting sites was collected through web diary method, self-video recording method, and group interview. Then, collected experience was re-constructed with scenarios. Scenarios are analyzed into contextual factors and these factors are categorized, given hierarchies and located into context map. Third, the possibility of applying the context map of web site experience was discussed. The systematical and concrete sample of context map based on practical use cases can be applied in the innovative and cross-genre web contents planning process.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.351-364
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• 2016

In recent years, our society, because of the arrival of a new paradigm according to the rapid changes in ICT has entered into future smart society and the ubiquitous era. So it can be a notable turning point in the city and administrative spatial informatization, aspects of the era change. Therefore, this study was to derive a desirable vision for the city of Busan Centum City Informatization in the dream of leading global smart city of Busan by applying 'scenario planning' as a foresight method. Soon this study derived a successful local informatization strategy for Centum City in Busan. It proposed the use of the administrative aspects of information with spatial informatization as metadata information. Also this study explored the future leadership strategy of Busan Centum City in smart society. Eventually in 2030 to around, In order to still remain Busan Centum City as a leading ICT smart city, this study suggested the following strategy. It is important to increase the satisfaction of citizen services through the use of the administrative aspects of information with spatial informatization as metadata information for urban information system.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.1
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• pp.45-58
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• 2024

Drought risk is expected to increase as the frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts increase due to climate change. Drought risk is related to not only hydro-meteorological factors, but also water supply and demand. Recently, along with climate change, socioeconomic factors have also been recognized to increase drought risk. Therefore, it is necessary to outlook the drought risk considering various conditions for coping with future extreme droughts in a timely manner. In addition, considering various drought scenarios help reduce the uncertainty in future drought outlook. In this study, drought scenarios considering climate change scenarios, population, and water demand were created to outlook drought risk for 160 administrative districts in Korea, then new levels of drought risk were assigned based on the results of drought risk outlook to suggest drought management measures. The results showed that the drought risk will increase in the future in 2020, 2025, and 2030, compared to past. Especially the drought risk is likely twice as high in 2030 under the baseline and high scenarios. Applying the drought outlook results from this study to the new methodology for setting the risk levels shows that most regions are in Response (V) in 2020 and 2030 for baseline and high scenarios.