• Title/Summary/Keyword: 시계열 추이 분석

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Water Supply forecast Using Multiple ARMA Model Based on the Analysis of Water Consumption Mode with Wavelet Transform. (Wavelet Transform을 이용한 물수요량의 특성분석 및 다원 ARMA모형을 통한 물수요량예측)

  • Jo, Yong-Jun;Kim, Jong-Mun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.317-326
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    • 1998
  • Water consumption characteristics on the northern part of Seoul were analyzed using wavelet transform with a base function of Coiflets 5. It turns out that long term evolution mode detected at 212 scale in 1995 was in a shape of hyperbolic tangent over the entire period due to the development of Sanggae resident site. Furthermore, there was seasonal water demand having something to do with economic cycle which reached its peak at the ends of June and December. The amount of this additional consumption was about $1,700\;\textrm{cm}^3/hr$ on June and $500\;\textrm{cm}^3/hr$ on December. It was also shown that the periods of energy containing sinusoidal component were 3.13 day, 33.33 hr, 23.98 hr and 12 hr, respectively, and the amplitude of 23.98 hr component was the most humongous. The components of relatively short frequency detected at $2^i$[i = 1,2,…12] scale were following Gaussian PDF. The most reliable predictive models are multiple AR[32,16,23] and ARMA[20, 16, 10, 23] which the input of temperature from the view point of minimized predictive error, mutual independence or residuals and the availableness of reliable meteorological data. The predicted values of water supply were quite consistent with the measured data which cast a possibility of the deployment of the predictive model developed in this study for the optimal management of water supply facilities.

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Efficiency analysis of Oriental hospitals according to characteristics (한방병원 특성별 경영효율성 분석)

  • Kim, Young-Sik;Lee, Woo-Chun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.59-67
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzes the efficiency of oriental hospitals using DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis). The input variables include the numbers of doctors, nurses, medical technicians, and beds. The output variable iscomprised of the sales account. The analysis tools used are EnPas and IBM SPSS Statistics 19. As a result of efficiency analysis, the private hospitals(establishment), less than 10 years in operation(operating period), containing less than 50 beds (number of the beds), located in the metropolitan area(location) showed high efficiency in the BCC(Banker, Charnes & Cooper) model, but indicated relatively low efficiency in CCR(Charnes, Cooper & Rhodes) model. This contradictory result is caused by inefficiencies in hospital size. The logistic regression analysis conducted to analyze the variables that affect the efficiency of oriental hospitals found that the efficiency decreased by 0.955 with each increase of 1 bed in the hospital.

Changes in the Occupational Structure and the Spatial Characteristics of Employment Distribution in Korea (한국 직업구조의 변화와 고용분포의 공간적 특성)

  • Park, So Hyun;Lee, Keumsook
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.401-420
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to investigate the changes in the occupational structure of employment in Korea during the last three decades, in which have transformed from industrialized economy to knowledge-based economy very rapidly as well as having experiences of both IMF and financial crisis. For this purpose, we analyze the trends occupational distribution and the socio-demographic characteristics of the occupational structure of employment since 1980. By applying correspondence analysis of Multidimensional Scaling(MDS) methods, we examine the inter-relationships between the employed persons by occupation and their characteristics such as gender, age group, educational attainment, industry, region. We found the occupational structure of Korea has been changed dramatically with the socio-economic transformations during the last four decades. In particular, the occupational (job) structure has been highered in general. However, it has also been dualized extremely into two groups, one is the specialized-skilled-white color jobs and the other is the simple-unskilled-blue color jobs. The results of this study could be utilized as the importation basis for the provision of labour supply and employment policy plan at the national level as well as at the local level.

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A Study on the Characteristics of Global FDI on China's Balanced Development Strategy : Focusing on Korean FDI Characteristics by Major Cities in China (중국지역균형발전전략에 미치는 글로벌 FDI 특성에 관한 연구 :중국주요도시별 한국FDI 특성을 중심으로)

  • Ryoo, Sung-Woo;Mun, Cheol-Ju
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.155-175
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    • 2018
  • This study estimates the technical efficiency and total factor productivity(TFP) of and analyzes the relationship between TFP and exports for Korean manufacturing companies from 2000 to 2016. Specially, TFP is decomposed into Technical Change(TC), Technical Efficiency Change (TEC), and Sale Effect(SE), and compared between large and small enterprises. First, in the case of technical efficiency, the Korean economy has been very vulnerable to external shocks, such as the sharp decline following the 2008 financial crisis. The efficiency of the electronics, automobile, and machinery sectors is low and needs to be improved. In addition, the technological efficiency of large enterprises is higher than that of SMEs in most manufacturing sub-sectors except for non-ferrous metals. In the case of TFP, most changes are due to TC, and the effective combination of labor, capital and the effect of scale have little effect, suggesting that improvement of internal structure is urgent. In addition, volatility due to the impact of the financial crisis in 2008 was much larger in SMEs than in large companies, so external economic impacts are more greater for SMEs than large enterprises. The relationship between TFP decomposition factors and exports shows that TC has a positive effect only on exports of SMEs. Therefore, in order to increase exports, in the case of SMEs, R&D support to promote technological development is needed. In the case of large companies, it is necessary to establish differentiated strategies for each export market, competitor company, and item to link efficiency and scale effect of exports.

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Analysis and Prediction Methods of Marine Accident Patterns related to Vessel Traffic using Long Short-Term Memory Networks (장단기 기억 신경망을 활용한 선박교통 해양사고 패턴 분석 및 예측)

  • Jang, Da-Un;Kim, Joo-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.780-790
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    • 2022
  • Quantitative risk levels must be presented by analyzing the causes and consequences of accidents and predicting the occurrence patterns of the accidents. For the analysis of marine accidents related to vessel traffic, research on the traffic such as collision risk analysis and navigational path finding has been mainly conducted. The analysis of the occurrence pattern of marine accidents has been presented according to the traditional statistical analysis. This study intends to present a marine accident prediction model using the statistics on marine accidents related to vessel traffic. Statistical data from 1998 to 2021, which can be accumulated by month and hourly data among the Korean domestic marine accidents, were converted into structured time series data. The predictive model was built using a long short-term memory network, which is a representative artificial intelligence model. As a result of verifying the performance of the proposed model through the validation data, the RMSEs were noted to be 52.5471 and 126.5893 in the initial neural network model, and as a result of the updated model with observed datasets, the RMSEs were improved to 31.3680 and 36.3967, respectively. Based on the proposed model, the occurrence pattern of marine accidents could be predicted by learning the features of various marine accidents. In further research, a quantitative presentation of the risk of marine accidents and the development of region-based hazard maps are required.

Comparison on Patterns of Conflicts in the South China Sea and the East China Sea through Analysis on Mechanism of Chinese Gray Zone Strategy (중국의 회색지대전략 메커니즘 분석을 통한 남중국해 및 동중국해 분쟁 양상 비교: 시계열 데이터에 근거한 경험적 연구를 중심으로)

  • Cho, Yongsu
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.273-310
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    • 2020
  • This study aims at empirically analyzing the overall mechanism of the "Gray Zone Strategy", which has begun to be used as one of Chinese major maritime security strategies in maritime conflicts surrounding the South China Sea and East China Sea since early 2010, and comparing the resulting conflict patterns in those reg ions. To this end, I made the following two hypotheses about Chinese gray zone strategy. The hypotheses that I have argued in this study are the first, "The marine gray zone strategy used by China shows different structures of implementation in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, which are major conflict areas.", the second, "Therefore, the patterns of disputes in the South China Sea and the East China Sea also show a difference." In order to examine this, I will classify Chinese gray zone strategy mechanisms multi-dimensionally in large order, 1) conflict trends and frequency of strategy execution, 2) types and strengths of strategy, 3) actors of strategy execution, and 4) response methods of counterparts. So, I tried to collect data related to this based on quantitative modeling to test these. After that, about 10 years of data pertaining to this topic were processed, and a research model was designed with a new categorization and operational definition of gray zone strategies. Based on this, I was able to successfully test all the hypotheses by successfully comparing the comprehensive mechanisms of the gray zone strategy used by China and the conflict patterns between the South China Sea and the East China Sea. In the conclusion, the verified results were rementioned with emphasizing the need to overcome the security vulnerabilities in East Asia that could be caused by China's marine gray zone strategy. This study, which has never been attempted so far, is of great significance in that it clarified the intrinsic structure in which China's gray zone strategy was implemented using empirical case studies, and the correlation between this and maritime conflict patterns was investigated.

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Implementation of a Real-time Data Display System for a Catchment Scale Automated Weather Observation Network (집수역 규모 무인기상관측망을 위한 실황자료 표출시스템 구축)

  • Jung, Myung Ryong;Kim, Jin-Hee;Moon, Young Eel;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.304-311
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    • 2013
  • There have been increasing cases for farmers to install automated weather stations (AWS) at their farms and orchards in order to take countermeasures to more frequent weather disasters caused by climate variability and weather extremes. Although raw data are the same, the additive values as agrometeorological information may vary depending on data processing methods. User demands on appropriate information could also be different among crop species, cropping systems and even cultivars. We designed an internet based AWS data processing and display system to help diverse users (e.g., farmers), extension workers to access their weather data on specific demands. The system was implemented at a rural catchment with 52 $km^2$ land area where 14 automated weather stations are in operation. This note introduces the system and describes the major modules in detail. By linking regional AWS networks, a feasibility for this system as an early warning system is also discussed.

A Study on the Liner Shipping Network of the Container Port (세계 주요 정기선사의 항만네트워크에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Dongjoon;Bang, Heeseok;Woo, Suhan
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.73-96
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    • 2014
  • Competitiveness of container ports has been traditionally evaluated by capability of individual ports to provide services to customers or their service quality. However, since container ports are connected by container shipping networks to varying degrees, the status of the ports in liner shipping service networks also determines competitiveness of the ports. Sometimes same ports may play different roles in different forms of shipping networks. Shipping network connections that formulate in container ports therefore have more significant impact on their performance than service capabilities they have. This study aims to explore how the shipping and port network has been structured and changed in the past and to examine the network characteristics of ports using Social Network Analysis(SNA). In this SNA study, nodes in the network are the ports-of-call of the liner shipping services and links in the network are connections realized by vessel movements, such that the liner shipping networks determine the port networks. This study, therefore, investigates the liner shipping networks and through its results demonstrates the network characteristics of the ports that are represented by the four centrality indices. This provides port authorities and terminal operating companies with managerial implications to enhance competitiveness from customers' perspectives.

Study on the Appropriate Use of Weapons by Private Security Guards: Focusing on Public Crowded Places (민간 경비원(보안요원)의 정당한 무기사용 방안 연구: 다중이용시설을 중심으로)

  • Hangil Oh;Kyewon Ahn;Ye ji Na
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.936-949
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    • 2023
  • On August 3, 2023, a brutal incident of unprovoked violence, termed as "Abnormal motivated crime," occurred in a multi-use facility, where retail and transportation facilities converge, near Seohyeon Station. The assailant drove onto the sidewalk, hitting pedestrians, and then entered a department store where a knife rampage ensued, resulting in a total of 14 victims. In the aftermath of this incident, numerous murder threats were posted on social media, causing widespread anxiety among the public. This fear was further exacerbated by the emergence of a "Terrorless.01ab.net" service. Purpose: This research aims to explore necessary institutional improvements for private security personnel who protect customers and employees in multi-use facilities, to enable them to perform their duties more effectively. Method: To assess the risk of Abnormal motivated crime, a time series analysis using the ARIMA model was conducted to analyze the domestic trends of such crimes. Additionally, Result: the study presents suggestions for improvements in the domestic security service law and emergency manuals for multi-use facilities. Conclusion: This is informed by a legal analysis of the indemnity rights for weapon use by private security guards abroad and their operational authority beyond weapon usage.

Characteristics and Trends of Spatiotemporal Distribution of Frost Occurrence in South Korea for 21 Years (21년간 한국의 서리발생 시·공간 분포 특성과 경향)

  • Jo, Eunsu;Kim, Hae-Min;Shin, Ju-Young;Kim, Kyu Rang;Lee, Yong Hee;Jee, Joonbum
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.83-94
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    • 2022
  • In order to actively prepare to frost damage that occurs in the process of growing crops, the spatial and temporal distribution of frost occurrence in South Korea was derived using frost observation data from 20 regions over the past 21 years (2000~2020). The main products are the number of frost days, first frost day, and last frost day by region. And the climatic trends of these results were identified by performing the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator. In South Korea, a lot of frost occurs in the inland area to the west of the Taebaek and Sobaek Mountains. Relatively closer to the coastal area, the number of frost days is small, the first frost day is slow, and the last frost day is early. The east coast region has fewer frost days, the first frost day is later, and the last frost day is earlier than the west coast region. The southern sea, the southeastern sea region, and the island region rarely experience frost. As a result of the annual time series trend analysis, although South Korea is a country where climate warming is progressing, there was no trend in reducing the number of frost days and slowing the first frost day, and it was found that the last frost day is delayed by 0.5 days per year.