• Title/Summary/Keyword: 시계열 데이터 분석

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A Study on Trends of Key Issues in Port Safety at Busan Port (부산항 항만안전 주요 이슈 동향에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong-Min Lee;Do-Yeon Ha;Joo-Hye Kim
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.34-48
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    • 2024
  • As global supply chain risks proliferate unpredictably, the high interdependence of port and logistics industry intensifies the risk burden. This study conducted fundamental research to explore diverse safety issues in domestic ports. Utilizing news article data about Busan Port, we employed LDA topic modeling and time-series linear regression to understand key safety trends. Over the past 30 years, Busan Port faced nine major safety issues-maritime safety, import cargo inspection, labor strikes, and natural disasters emerged cyclically. Major port safety issues in Busan Port are primarily characterized by an unpredictable nature, falling under socio-environmental and natural phenomena types, indicating a significant impact of global uncertainty. Therefore, systematic policies need to be formulated based on identified port safety issues to enhance port safety in Busan Port. Additionally, there is a need to strengthen the resilience of port safety for unpredictable risk situations. In conclusion, advanced research activities are necessary to promote port safety enhancement in response to dynamically changing social conditions.

An analysis of time series models for toilet and laundry water-uses (변기 및 세탁기 가정용수 사용량의 시계열모형 연구)

  • Myoung, Sungmin;Kim, Donggeon;Lee, Doo-Jin;Kim, Hwa Soo;Jo, Jinnam
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.1141-1148
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    • 2013
  • End-uses of household water have been influenced by a housing type, life style and housing area which are considered as internal factors. Also, there are external factors such as water rate, weather and water supply facilities. Analysis of influential factors on water consumption in households would give an explanation on the cause of changing trends and would help predicting the water demand of end-use in household. In this paper, we used real data to predict toilet and laundry water-uses and utilized the linear regression model with autoregressive errors. The results showed that the monthly autoregressive error models explained about 71% for describing the water demand of end-use in toilet and laundry water-uses.

Derivation of Digital Music's Ranking Change Through Time Series Clustering (시계열 군집분석을 통한 디지털 음원의 순위 변화 패턴 분류)

  • Yoo, In-Jin;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.171-191
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    • 2020
  • This study focused on digital music, which is the most valuable cultural asset in the modern society and occupies a particularly important position in the flow of the Korean Wave. Digital music was collected based on the "Gaon Chart," a well-established music chart in Korea. Through this, the changes in the ranking of the music that entered the chart for 73 weeks were collected. Afterwards, patterns with similar characteristics were derived through time series cluster analysis. Then, a descriptive analysis was performed on the notable features of each pattern. The research process suggested by this study is as follows. First, in the data collection process, time series data was collected to check the ranking change of digital music. Subsequently, in the data processing stage, the collected data was matched with the rankings over time, and the music title and artist name were processed. Each analysis is then sequentially performed in two stages consisting of exploratory analysis and explanatory analysis. First, the data collection period was limited to the period before 'the music bulk buying phenomenon', a reliability issue related to music ranking in Korea. Specifically, it is 73 weeks starting from December 31, 2017 to January 06, 2018 as the first week, and from May 19, 2019 to May 25, 2019. And the analysis targets were limited to digital music released in Korea. In particular, digital music was collected based on the "Gaon Chart", a well-known music chart in Korea. Unlike private music charts that are being serviced in Korea, Gaon Charts are charts approved by government agencies and have basic reliability. Therefore, it can be considered that it has more public confidence than the ranking information provided by other services. The contents of the collected data are as follows. Data on the period and ranking, the name of the music, the name of the artist, the name of the album, the Gaon index, the production company, and the distribution company were collected for the music that entered the top 100 on the music chart within the collection period. Through data collection, 7,300 music, which were included in the top 100 on the music chart, were identified for a total of 73 weeks. On the other hand, in the case of digital music, since the cases included in the music chart for more than two weeks are frequent, the duplication of music is removed through the pre-processing process. For duplicate music, the number and location of the duplicated music were checked through the duplicate check function, and then deleted to form data for analysis. Through this, a list of 742 unique music for analysis among the 7,300-music data in advance was secured. A total of 742 songs were secured through previous data collection and pre-processing. In addition, a total of 16 patterns were derived through time series cluster analysis on the ranking change. Based on the patterns derived after that, two representative patterns were identified: 'Steady Seller' and 'One-Hit Wonder'. Furthermore, the two patterns were subdivided into five patterns in consideration of the survival period of the music and the music ranking. The important characteristics of each pattern are as follows. First, the artist's superstar effect and bandwagon effect were strong in the one-hit wonder-type pattern. Therefore, when consumers choose a digital music, they are strongly influenced by the superstar effect and the bandwagon effect. Second, through the Steady Seller pattern, we confirmed the music that have been chosen by consumers for a very long time. In addition, we checked the patterns of the most selected music through consumer needs. Contrary to popular belief, the steady seller: mid-term pattern, not the one-hit wonder pattern, received the most choices from consumers. Particularly noteworthy is that the 'Climbing the Chart' phenomenon, which is contrary to the existing pattern, was confirmed through the steady-seller pattern. This study focuses on the change in the ranking of music over time, a field that has been relatively alienated centering on digital music. In addition, a new approach to music research was attempted by subdividing the pattern of ranking change rather than predicting the success and ranking of music.

An Panel Estimation on Change of Productivity for Korean Information and Technology Industry (한국 정보통신산업의 생산성 변화에 대한 패널추정)

  • Choi, Bong-Ho;Kim, Sang-Choon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.388-395
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate change of productivity of information and technology industry and to induce policy implications. The method of analysis is panel data analysis based on 11 Korean information and technology industry cross-section and 8 years time series. The result of estimate shows that producitivity of labor and capital and information and technology industry is positive, total factor productivity of information and technology industry is also positive. but total factor productivity decreased after 2008. In addition, the productivity of labor was increased, but the productivity of capital input was decreased. It means that the productivity of Korean information and technology industry was not improved despite increasing of labor and capital investment.

A study on comparing short-term wind power prediction models in Gunsan wind farm (군산풍력발전단지의 풍력발전량 단기예측모형 비교에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Yung-Seop;Kim, Jin;Jang, Moon-Seok;Kim, Hyun-Goo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.585-592
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    • 2013
  • As the needs for alternative energy and renewable energy increase, there has been a lot of investment in developing wind energy, which does not cause air pollution nor the greenhouse gas effect. Wind energy is an environment friendly energy that is unlimited in its resources and is possible to be produced wherever the wind blows. However, since wind energy heavily relies on wind that has unreliable characteristics, it may be difficult to have efficient energy transmissions. For this reason, an important factor in wind energy forecasting is the estimation of available wind power. In this study, Gunsan wind farm data was used to compare ARMA model to neural network model to analyze for more accurate prediction of wind power generation. As a result, the neural network model was better than the ARMA model in the accuracy of the wind power predictions.

Utility of Deep Learning Model for Improving Dam and Reservoir Operation: A Case Study of Seonjin River Dam (섬진강 댐의 수문학적 예측을 위한 딥러닝 모델 활용)

  • Lee, Eunmi;Kam, Jonghun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.483-483
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    • 2022
  • 댐과 저수지의 운영 최적화를 위한 수문학적 예보는 현재 수동적인 댐 운영이 주를 이루면서 활용도가 높지 않다. 불확실한 기후변화나 기후재난 상황에서 우리 사회에 악영향을 최소화하기 위해 선제적으로 대응/대비할 수 있는 댐 운영 방안이 불가피하다. 강우량 예측 기술은 기후변화로 인해 제한적인 상황이다. 실례로, 2020년 8월에 섬진강의 댐이 극심한 집중 강우로 인해 무너지는 사태가 발생하였고 이로 인해 지역사회에 막대한 경제적 피해가 발생하였다. 선제적 댐 방류량 운영 기술은 또한 환경적인 변화로 인한 영향을 완화하기 위해 필요한 것이다. 제한적인 기상 예보 기술을 극복하고자 심화학습이나 강화학습 같은 인공지능 모델들의 활용성에 대한 연구가 시도되고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 섬진강 댐의 시간당 수문 데이터를 이용하여 댐 운영을 위한 심화학습 모델을 개발하고 그 활용도를 평가하였다. 댐 운영을 위한 심화학습 모델로서 시계열 데이터 예측에 적합한 Long Sort Term Memory(LSTM)과 Gated Recurrent Unit(GRU) 알고리즘을 구축하고 댐 수위를 예측하였다. 분석 자료는 WAMIS에서 제공하는 2000년부터 2021년까지의 시간당 데이터를 사용하였다. 입력 데이터로서 시간당 유입량, 강우량과 방류량을, 출력 데이터로서 시간당 수위 자료를 각각 사용하였으며. 결정계수(R2 Score)를 통해 모델의 예측 성능을 평가하였다. 댐 수위 예측값 개선을 위해 하이퍼파라미터의 '최적값'이 존재하는 범위를 줄여나가는 하이퍼파라미터 최적화를 두 가지 방법으로 진행하였다. 첫 번째 방법은 수동적 탐색(Manual Search) 방법으로 Sequence Length를 24, 48, 72시간, Hidden Layer를 1, 3, 5개로 설정하여 하이퍼파라미터의 조합에 따른 LSTM와 GRU의 민감도를 평가하였다. 두 번째 방법은 Grid Search로 최적의 하이퍼파라미터를 찾았다. 이 두가지 방법에서는 같은 하이퍼파라미터 안에서 GRU가 LSTM에 비해 더 높은 예측 정확도를 보였고 Sequence Length가 높을수록 정확도가 높아지는 경향을 보였다. Manual Search 방법의 경우 R2가 최대 0.72의 정확도를 보였고 Grid Search 방법의 경우 R2가 0.79의 정확도를 보였다. 본 연구 결과는 가뭄과 홍수와 같은 물 재해에 사전 대응하고 기후변화에 적응할 수 있는 댐 운영 개선에 도움을 줄 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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Agricultural Product Price Prediction ModelUsing Multi-Variable Data Long Short Term Memory (장단기 기억 신경망을 사용한 다변수 데이터 농산물 가격 예측 모델)

  • Donggon Kang;Youngmin Jang;Joosock Lee;Seongsoo Lee
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.451-457
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    • 2024
  • This paper proposes a method for predicting agricultural product prices by utilizing various variables such as price, climate factors, demand, and import volume as data, and applying the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. The analysis of prediction performance using the LSTM model, which learns the long-term dependencies of time series data, showed that integrating diverse data improved performance compared to traditional methods. Furthermore, even when predicting without price data as a dependent variable, meaningful results were achieved using only independent variables, indicating the potential for further model development. Moreover, it was found that using a multi-variable model could further enhance prediction performance, suggesting that this complex approach is effective in improving the accuracy of cabbage price predictions.

Similarity of Sampling Sites by Water Quality (수질 관측지점 유사성 측정방법 연구)

  • Kwon, Se-Hyug;Lee, Yo-Sang
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.39-45
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    • 2010
  • As the value of environment is increasing, the water quality has been a matter of interest to the nation and people. Research on water quality has been widely studied, but focused on geographical characteristic and river characteristics like inflow, outflow, quantity and speed of water. In this paper, two approaches to measure the similarity of sampling sites by using water quality data are discussed and compared with two-years empirical data of Yongdam-Dam. The existing method has calculated their similarities with principal component scores. The proposed approach in this paper use correlation matrix of water quality related variables and MDS for measuring the similarity, which is shown to be better in the sense of being clustering which is identical to geographical clustering since it can consider the time series pattern of water quality.

A Study on Design for Incipient Failure Detection and Prediction System of Electric Supply Equipments Based on IoT (loT 기반의 배전설비 고장 감지 및 예지 시스템 설계에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hong-Geun;Lee, Myeong-Bae;Cho, Yong-Yun;Park, Jang-Woo;Shin, Chang-Sun
    • Annual Conference of KIPS
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    • 2016.04a
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    • pp.405-407
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    • 2016
  • 최근, ICT/loT 기술과의 융합은 다양한 산업분야에 적용되고 있으며, 안정적인 전력공급 및 지능형전력망 구축에 대해 다양한 연구가 이루어지고 있다. 특히, 수요라인과 직접적으로 연관된 배전계통의 효율적인 운영 및 배전설비의 유지/관리 기술에 대한 연구에 많은 연구를 수행하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 다양한 배전설비에 대한 환경정보를 loT 센서를 통해 수집함으로써 실시간으로 정전상황을 불러올 수 있는 기자재의 고장감지 및 예측을 위한 시스템 모델을 제안한다. 제안하는 시스템 모델은 실시간으로 수집되는 정보들에 대해 시계열 기반의 필터링 및 이상점 판단을 위한 성분 분석을 실시하고, 고장진단 및 예측을 위해 기계학습 기반의 데이터 분석실시하여 기자재들의 고장감지 및 고장 발생 여부를 예측한다.

Forecasting of Drought Based on Satellite Precipitation and Atmospheric Patterns Using Deep Learning Model (딥러닝 모델을 활용한 위성강수와 대기패턴 기반의 가뭄 예측)

  • Seung-Yeon Lee;Seok-Jae Hong;Seo-Yeon Park;Joo-Heon Lee
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.336-336
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    • 2023
  • 가뭄은 가장 심각한 기상 재해 중 하나로 농업 생산, 사회경제 등 다양한 분야에 영향을 미친다. 국내의 경우 광주·전남지역이 1990년대 이후 30년 만에 제한 급수 위기에 처하는 역대 최악의 가뭄으로 지역민들은 심각한 피해가 발생하였다. 유럽의 경우 2022년 당시 500년 만에 찾아온 가뭄으로 인해 3분의 2에 해당하는 지역이 피해를 입었으며, 미국 서부 지역은 2000년부터 2021년까지 1200년 만에 가장 극심한 대가뭄을 겪은 것으로 나타났다. 지구온난화에 따른 기후변화로 인해 가뭄의 빈도와 강도가 증가함에 따라 피해도 커질 것으로 예상된다. 가뭄의 부정적인 영향으로 인해 정확하고 신뢰할 수 있는 가뭄 예측 기술이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 가뭄예측을 위한 입력변수로서 GPM IMERG (The Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM) 강수량 자료와 NOAA에서 제공하는 8가지 북반구 대기패턴 자료 간의 상관성을 분석하였다. 입력변수 간의 상관성과 중장기 가뭄 예측을 위하여 딥러닝 모델 중 시계열 데이터에서 높은 예측 성능을 보이는 LSTM(Long Short Term-Memory)을 적용하여 가뭄을 예측하고자 한다.

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