• Title/Summary/Keyword: 순차추정

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Willingness To Pay For Green Electricity Considering Sequence Effect (Sequence Effect를 고려한 신재생에너지전력 지불의사액 연구)

  • Kim, Haeyeon;Park, Jooyoung;Kim, Jihyo;Heo, Eunnyeong
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2010.11a
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    • pp.139.1-139.1
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    • 2010
  • 제 3차 국가에너지기본계획이 시행됨에 따라 전체 에너지 공급량 중 신재생에너지가 차지하는 비율은 점차 늘어날 전망이다. 이와 관련하여 2012년부터 RPS 시행이 확정되었다. RPS(신재생에너지 의무비율할당제)는 신재생에너지에 의한 발전 비율을 설정함으로써 공급을 늘리는 긍정적인 측면이 있으나 이와 동시에 전기요금 인상을 수반한다. 요금 인상으로 인하여 발생할 수 있는 소비자의 반감을 완화시키고 전기요금에 대한 현실적인 합의점을 찾으려면 소비자가 재생에너지 전력에 대하여 어느 정도의 지불의사를 가지고 있는지에 대한 연구가 선행적으로 진행되어야 한다. 한편 RPS의 도입은 신재생에너지 원간 가격경쟁을 촉진시키게 된다. 이 과정에서 성장잠재력이 높은 에너지원이라 하더라도 현재의 발전단가가 높다면 잠재력을 발휘하기 전에 도태될 가능성이 있다. 이러한 RPS 도입의 영향에 대처할 수 있는 정책수립의 기초자료를 마련하기 위해, 재생에너지 전력에 대한 소비자 측면의 효용이 원별로 분석될 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 조건부 가치평가법(Contingent Valuation)을 적용하여 수력, 풍력, 태양광으로 발전된 재생에너지 전력에 대한 지불의사액(Willingness to Pay)을 추정하였다. 단일 설문지 내에서 여러 에너지원에 대한 지불의사액을 순차적으로 물어보게 될 경우, 질문순서가 지불의사액 추정에 편의를 가져오는 순서효과(Sequence Effect)가 발생할 수 있다(Boyle et al.,1993). 이러한 순서효과를 제거하기 위해서 유형에 따라 질문순서를 다르게 하여 각 에너지원에 대한 지불의사액을 묻는 방향으로 설문을 설계하였다. 분석결과 수력, 풍력, 태양광으로 발전한 전력에 대한 지불의사액 간에는 유의한 차이 가 나타나지 않았으며, 순서효과로 인한 편의 또한 지불의사액에 유의한 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 관측되었다.

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Matched-target Model Inversion for the Position Estimation of Moving Targets (정합-표적모델 역산을 이용한 기동 표적의 위치 추정)

  • 장덕홍;박홍배;김성일;류존하;김광태
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.22 no.7
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    • pp.562-572
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    • 2003
  • A matched-target model inversion method was developed for a passive sonar to estimate the position of moving targets. Based on the well known matched-field processing in underwater acoustics, the method finds target position by matching the measured target directions and frequencies with the corresponding values of the proposed target model. For the efficient and accurate estimations, the parameter searching was accomplished using a hybrid optimizing method, which first starts with a global optimization such as generic algorithm or simulated annealing then applies a local optimization of a simple down hill algorithm. The suggested method was testified using simulations for three different moving scenarios. The simulation results showed that the method is robust in convergence, even under the situation of over 5 times standard deviation of Gaussian distribution of measured error, and is practical in calculation time as well.

A Study on Frame Interpolation and Nonlinear Moving Vector Estimation Using GRNN (GRNN 알고리즘을 이용한 비선형적 움직임 벡터 추정 및 프레임 보간연구)

  • Lee, Seung-Joo;Bang, Min-Suk;Yun, Kee-Bang;Kim, Ki-Doo
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.459-468
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    • 2013
  • Under nonlinear characteristics of frames, we propose the frame interpolation using GRNN to enhance the visual picture quality. By full search with block size of 128x128~1x1 to reduce blocky artifact and image overlay, we select the frame having block of minimum error and re-estimate the nonlinear moving vector using GRNN. We compare our scheme with forward(backward) motion compensation, bidirectional motion compensation when the object movement is large or the object image includes zoom-in and zoom-out or camera focus has changed. Experimental results show that the proposed method provides better performance in subjective image quality compared to conventional MCFI methods.

Developing Sequential Sampling Plans for Evaluating Maize Weevil and Indian Meal Moth Density in Rice Warehouse (쌀 저장창고에서 어리쌀바구미와 화랑곡나방 밀도 추정을 위한 축차추출 조사법 (Sequential sampling plans) 개발)

  • Nam, Young-Woo;Chun, Yong-Shik;Ryoo, Mun-Il
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.45-51
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    • 2009
  • This paper presents sequential sampling plans for evaluating the pest density based on complete counts from probe in a rice storage warehouse. Both maize weevil and Indian meal moth population showed negative binomial dispersion patterns in brown rice storage. For cost-effective monitoring and action decision making system, sequential sampling plans by using the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) were developed for the maize weevil and Indian meal moth in warehouses with 0.8 M/T storage bags. The action threshold for the two insect pests was estimated to 5 insects per kg, which was projected by a matrix model. The results show that, using SPRT methods, managers can make decisions using only 20 probe with a minimum risk of incorrect assessment.

Corresponding Points Estimation of Motion Images by Orthogonal Function Expansion (직교 함수 전개법에 의한 동영상의 대응점 추출)

  • 김진우;김경태
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.380-388
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    • 2000
  • In computing the optical flow, Horn and Schunck's method which is a representative algorithm is based on differentiation. Therefore it is difficult to estimate the velocity for a large displacement by this algorithm. In this paper, we propose a method for estimating nonuniform motion from sequential images which is based on integral brightness constancy constraints. The equations which transform a source image to a target image are expressed as a function of the displacement field. If marginal effects can be neglected, the form of the transformation integral transform or orthogonal expansion can be determined from the expansion coefficients of the two images. The apparent displacement field is then computed iteratively by a projection method which utilities the functional derivatives of the linearized moment equations. We demonstrate that the performance of the orthogonal function transform on the data set of large motion.

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Monte Carlo Simulation-Based Cost Estimation for Floating Trash Barrier Maintenance (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션 기반 부유 쓰레기 차단막 유지관리 비용 추정 방안)

  • Kim, Seokhwan;Kim, Taegeon;Kim, Hongjo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.231-235
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    • 2024
  • Marine debris entering through rivers negatively impacts the environment and poses a direct threat to human health. While barriers to prevent the outflow of floating debris are being installed, attention to their maintenance, especially the scheduling of garbage collection, is insufficient. Currently, maintenance relies on a sequential collection method based on the experience and know-how of field workers, with little systematic research to support it. In response, this study proposes a new feedback-based collection method based on YOLOv7, Monte Carlo simulation for trash collection analysis. The proposed method conducts collection based on the amount of trash detected by remote sensors such as CCTV, and the expected costs are statistically and economically compared using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The results showed that the new collection strategy offers a cost advantage of about 63 % over the existing strategy.

Development and Implementation of a 2-Phase Calibration Method for Gravity Model Considering Accessibility (접근성 지표를 도입한 중력모형의 2단계 정산기법 개발 및 적용)

  • CHOI, Sung Taek;RHO, Jeong Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.393-404
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    • 2015
  • Gravity model has had the major problem that the model explains the characteristics of travel behavior with only deterrence factors such as travel time or cost. In modern society, travel behavior can be affected not only deterrence factors but also zonal characteristics or transportation service. Therefore, those features have to be considered to estimate the future travel demand accurately. In this regard, there are two primary aims of this study: 1. to identify the characteristics of inter-zonal travel, 2. to develop the new type of calibration method. By employing accessibility variable which can explain the manifold pattern of trip, we define the zonal travel behavior newly. Furthermore, we suggest 2-phase calibration method, since existing calibration method cannot find the optimum solution when organizing the deterrence function with the new variables. The new method proceeds with 2 steps; step 1.estimating deterrence parameter, step 2. finding balancing factors. The validation results with RMSE, E-norm, C.R show that this study model explains the inter-zonal travel pattern adequately and estimate the O/D pairs precisely than existing gravity model. Especially, the problem with estimation of short distance trip is overcomed. In conclusion, it is possible to draw the conclusion that this study suggests the possibility of improvement for trip distribution model.

Fast 2-D Moving Target Tracking Algorithm (Fast 2차원 동 표적 추적 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Gyeong-Su;Lee, Sang-Uk;Song, Yu-Seop
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.75-85
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    • 1985
  • We have studied on the 2-D moving target tracking algorithm satisfying a real-time hardware implementation requirement. In this paper, a fast algorithm is developed based on the operator formulation and the variational algorithm f 10] . Here, we use the directed search for the maximum of the cross-correlation in order to obtain an initial estimate for the variational algorithm and decompose the scene into 16 smaller subblocks and apply the variational algorithm to each subblock sequentially with a new moving area detection method. We call the algorithm subblock based recursive algorithm. Compared with (10) , the ratio of the computational savings obtained from the proposed algorithm is 7 on the average.

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Longevity Bond Pricing by a Cohort-based Stochastic Mortality (코호트 사망률을 이용한 장수채권 가격산출)

  • Jho, Jae Hoon;Lee, Kangsoo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.703-719
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    • 2015
  • We propose an extension of the Lee and Jho (2015) mean reverting the two factor mortality model by incorporating a period-specific cohort effect. We found that the consideration of cohort effect improves the mortality fit of Korea male data above age 65. Parameters are estimated by the weighted least squares method and Metropolis algorithm. We also emphasize that the cohort effect is necessary to choose the base survival index to calculate longevity bond issue price. A key contribution of the article is the proposal and development of a method to calculate the longevity bond price to hedge the longevity risk exposed to Korea National Pension Services.

Study on the Development of Multi-Agents Position Tracking System Using Ultrasonic Transducers (초음파 센서를 이용한 다수의 이동형 개체 위치 추적시스템 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Choe, Jin-Hee;Choy, Ick;Cho, Whang
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.725-731
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    • 2013
  • In This paper, through simulation, proposes a system which makes it possible for freely moving multiple agents with ultrasonic receivers to estimate their own position by themselves using the ultrasonic signals sequentially emitted from multiple ultrasonic transmitters. This system possesses an advantage that there is no limit in the number of agents existing in the space covered by more than three transmitters fixed at proper locations. Hence, the proposed system can be utilized effectively in position tracking control of multiple robotic agents system and motion capturing system.