• Title/Summary/Keyword: 순서형 프로빗 모형

Search Result 37, Processing Time 0.021 seconds

Risk Factors Affecting the Injury Severity of Rental Car Accidents in South Korea : an Application of Ordered Probit Model (순서형 프로빗 모형을 이용한 렌터카 사고 심각도 영향요인 분석)

  • Kwon, Yeong min;Jang, Ki tae;Son, Sang hoon
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
    • /
    • v.17 no.3
    • /
    • pp.1-17
    • /
    • 2018
  • Over the past five years (2010-2014), the total number of traffic accidents has decreased from 226,878 to 223,552 with decrease of 0.37 percent each year. The death toll has also decreased from 5,505 to 4,762. However, the number of rental car accidents and fatalities has been steadily increased. Despite of its growth, no previous study has been conducted on rental car accident severity. This study analyzed data of 18,050 rental car accidents in South Korea collected from 2010 to 2014 and then processed in order to identify which factors could affect the accident severity. Seventeen factors related to rental car accident severity were grouped into four categories: driver, vehicle, roadways and environment. As a result of the ordered probit model analysis, fourteen variables excluding age, intersection, and day of week were found to affect the severity of rental car accidents. The results of the study summarized as follows. First of all, violation of traffic regulations such as speeding increase the severity of rental car accidents. Secondly, rental accident severity is higher at curved sections of complicated roadway, which the driver's field of view is impaired. The results of this study can be used to reduce the severity of rental car accidents in transportation safety.

An Analysis on the Preference and Use-Demand Forecasting of Bus Information (버스정보의 선호도 및 이용수요 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Won Gyu;Jung, Hun Young
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.28 no.6D
    • /
    • pp.791-799
    • /
    • 2008
  • To build the system which has high utilization and usefulness for users, it is necessary to know the information type and use-demand that the use want. The purpose of this study is to forecast the preference and demand of utilization for bus information when bus information is offered through cellular phon. The accomplishments of this research are as follow : Firstly, importance on the level of individual factor and the value of change's figure can be evaluated, using preference analysis on bus information by conjoint analysis. Secondly, by establishing the use-demand model bus information using binary logit model, influence factor on whether or not the use of the user. Finally, ordered probit model was built by use behavior model in payment per call or per month of potential user of bus information. Through call times and sensitive analysis by payment methods, elasticity point, optimal payment fee, and use probability was analyzed. This study make application as basic to efficient bus information policy and to improve use rate of bus information in future because this study make it possible to get preference analysis, use-demand analysis and estimation of optimal payment fee which is reflecting various requirement in use of bus information user.

Disaggregate Demand Forecasting and Estimation of the Optimal Price for VTIS (부가교통정보시스템(VTIS) 이용수요예측 및 적정이용료 산정에 관한 연구)

  • 정헌영;진재업;손태민
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.20 no.4
    • /
    • pp.27-38
    • /
    • 2002
  • VTIS(Value-added Traffic Information System), among the sub-systems of ATIS, is an Advanced Traffic System which innovates efficiency and safety. And this system, having marketability and publicness, is very important. Moreover, This system offers definite traffic information according to the demand of specified users. And it is expected to produce additional spread effects because of high participation rate of private sector. However, the VTIS service media are varied and there are varied optimal Prices and payment methods according to each medium. Because of that, there needs the study on these problems or optimal criteria. But because existing studies were devoted to estimate the optimal route, the study toward the optimal price which was considered part of user and service use demand do not exist. Accordingly, we surveyed under imaginary alternative pricing scenarios and forecasted the use demand of VTIS by using Binary Logit model. Also, for the users who answered that they would use VTIS service in survey, we classified their use's behaviors as four categories and estimated the use ratio to each category by using Ordered Probit model. Last, using sensitivity analysis for results form above, we derived the optimal price that is 2800won in monthly. 145won in payment per call. Then, VTIS service use rate is respectively 65%, 75%.

Ordered Probit Model Of Speed Selection Behavior (순서형 프로빗모형을 이용한 속도선택행태에 관한 연구)

  • 강경우;백병성
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.16 no.3
    • /
    • pp.93-100
    • /
    • 1998
  • 지난 30여년간 운전자의 속도선택의 행태에 대하여 많은 연구가 이루어졌다. 그러 나, 과거 대부분의 연구는 운전자의 개별적인 특성과 제한속도에 대한 운전자의 인지 정도 를 고려하지 않고, 다만 운전자의 속도선택과 도로 및 차량간의 상호 관련성에 중점을 두고 있다. 본 연구는 운전자, 차량 및 통행특성 등의 요인을 고려하여 운전자의 속도 선택에 대 한 행태를 분석하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 운전자의 속도 자료와 설문자료를 조사한 수, 두 가지 자료를 범주형 자료로 구분하여 Ordered Probit Model을 적용하여 분석하였다. 분 석결과 i) 고소득의 남성운전자가 고속의 주행 행태를 보였으며, 운전경력이 많은 운전자일 수록 높은 속도를 선택하는 것으로 나타났다. ii) 차량에 관해서는 배기량이 높은 차량일수 록 고속의 속도를 나타낸 반면에 안전장치가 많은 차량의 경우에는 저속의 주행속도를 보이 는 것으로 나타났다. iii) 통행 특성 면에서는 일일통행거리가 중요 변수인 것으로 나타났다. iv) 운전자의 심리적 측면에서는 운전자가 인식하고 있는 제한 속도가 또한 중요변수로 분 석되었다.

  • PDF

A Methodology for Driving Risk Evaluation Based on Driving Speed Choice (Focusing on Impacts of Providing In-vehicle Traffic Warning Information) (주행속도선택 기반 주행위험도 평가방법론 개발 (차내 교통안전정보 제공 효과 평가를 중심으로))

  • Kim, Won-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.29 no.1
    • /
    • pp.95-102
    • /
    • 2011
  • This paper presents a Driving Risk Model (DRM) based on driving speed choices using an Ordered Response Probit (ORP) model. The DRM is conceptualized based on the relation between speed deviation and the occurrence of crashes found by Solomon. The impacts of various driving risk factors are revealed by applying the DRM to evaluate the effectiveness of In-Vehicle Traffic Warning Information (IVTWI) in expressway driving. Regarding driving risk, the results show that: (1) the risk is lower among male drivers, those with more driving experience and those with less accident history, (2) the risk is higher when driving takes place on wet road surface, in the afternoon, and under conditions of low traffic volume, and (3) the risk is also higher on both downgraded and long curve sections. Additionally, the results provide evidence that provision of IVTWI can decrease the driving risk. The proposed DRM provides a solution for assessing the traffic safety impacts of countermeasures on roadways when there is a shortage of traffic accidents data.

Important significant factors of health-related quality of life(EQ-5D) by age group in Korea based on KNHANES(2014) (한국인의 연령대에 따른 건강관련 삶의 질(EQ-5D)에 대한 주요 요인 분석)

  • Oh, Hyun Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.28 no.3
    • /
    • pp.573-584
    • /
    • 2017
  • The main purpose of this study is to investigate the important impacting factors of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) by different age groups. The subjects of this study were 5,976 adults over 19 based on data from the 2014 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and EQ-5D index score was used for the measurement of HRQOL. Three age groups were considered of young (19-39), middle (40-65), and old (over 66) and for each age group Bayesian ordered probit model analysis was fitted to identify significant factors and their effects on HRQOL. Sex, subjective awareness of health, stress and diseases have been identified to be common important factors for all age groups. HRQOL of women is more likely to be lower than that of men. Subjective awareness of health affect positively but stress and diseases affect negatively on HRQOL. For middle age group, occupational activities have been found to be important positive factors on HRQOL. On the other hand, obesity is more important factor influencing on HRQOL negatively and frequent walking is recommended for old age group.

엔젤투자자의 위험 회피 성향이 투자 행동 및 관심에 미치는영향

  • 조수연;임한규;이우진
    • 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 2023.11a
    • /
    • pp.85-89
    • /
    • 2023
  • 최근 급변하는 세계 경제 환경에서 창업기업은 혁신, 고용 및 경제 활력의 핵심 동력으로 등장했다. 그러나 초기 창업 기업이 성장하는 여정에는 많은 어려움이 따르며, 이 과정에서 엔젤투자자의 역할이 필수적이다. 초기 창업 시장의 촉매제 역할을 하는 엔젤투자자는 필요한 자본을 제공할 뿐만 아니라 경영 노하우 및 네트워크를 통해 창업기업이 성공할 수 있도록 지원한다. 그러나 최근 데이터에 따르면 신생 기업 중 엔젤 투자의 혜택을 받는 기업은 1.4%에 불과한 것으로 나타나 창업기업의 잠재력과 지원 사이에는 분명한 공백이 존재한다. 이 연구는 지속가능한 경제 성장을 위해 창업 생태계의 중요한 요소인 엔젤투자자의 위험회피 성향을 이해함으로써 이들의 투자 행동, 의사결정 프로세스에 대한 통찰력을 얻을 수 있다. 위험회피가 엔젤투자에 미치는 영향을 알아보고 엔젤투자가 활성화 될 수 있는 방법을 제안하고자 한다. 본 연구를 통해 위험회피 성향이 엔젤투자에 대한 관심도와 실제 투자 활동 간의 관계를 추정해보고자 한다. 위험회피 성향이 엔젤투자자에 어떻게 영향을 미치는지 탐색하는 것에 중점을 두고, 엔젤투자자의 행동과 관심사에 영향을 미치는 다양한 요인들을 포함하여 진행한다. 연구 표본은 서울 및 경기 지역의 일반 성인과 엔젤투자자로 설문조사를 통해 필요한 데이터를 수집한다. 이 연구는 위험회피 성향이 엔젤투자 결정에 어떻게 반영되는지에 대한 깊은 이해를 제공하고, 엔젤투자 활성화를 위한 정책 및 전략을 수립하는데 중요한 통찰력을 제공할 것이다.

  • PDF

Development of Severity Model for Rural Unsignalized Intersection Crashes (지방부 비신호 교차로 교통사고 심각도 예측모형 개발 - 수도권 주변 및 전라북도 지역의 3지 비신호 교차로를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Dong-Min;Kim, Eung-Cheol;Sung, Nak-Moon;Kim, Do-Hoon
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
    • /
    • v.10 no.3
    • /
    • pp.47-56
    • /
    • 2008
  • Generally, accident exposure at intersections is relatively higher than that at roadway segments due to more possibility of merging, diverging, turning, crossing, and weaving maneuver. Furthermore, the traffic accident rate at intersections has been rapidly increasing since 1990's. Since there is more opportunity of conflict at unsignalized intersection, frequency and severity of traffic accident are more severe than signalized intersections. The purpose of the study is to analyze factors causing vehicle crashes and provide intersection design guidelines to improve intersection safety. For this study, vehicle to vehicle crash data of 116 rural 3 legs unsignalized were collected and field surveys were conducted for traffic and geometric conditions. Ordered probit models were developed to analyze the severity of crashes. It was found that weather, obstacles in minor roadsides, presence of major exclusive right lane, presence of major road crosswalk, difference between posted speed of major road and minor road, land-use around intersections, shoulder width of major road, ADT of major road are significant factors for intersection safety.

  • PDF

Analyzing the Determinants of Online Seafood Purchasing Using Heckman's Ordered Probit Sample-Selection Model (Heckman 순서형 프로빗 모형을 이용한 소비자의 온라인 수산물 구매 결정요인 분석)

  • Heon-Dong Lee
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
    • /
    • v.55 no.1
    • /
    • pp.37-53
    • /
    • 2024
  • In the post-COVID-19, the food industry is rapidly reshaping its market structure toward online distribution. Rapid delivery system driven by large distribution platforms has ushered in an era of online distribution of fresh seafood that was previously limited. This study surveyed 1,000 consumers nationwide to determine their online seafood purchasing behaviors. The research methodology used factor analysis of consumer lifestyle and Heckman's ordered probit sample-selection model. The main results of the analysis are as follows. First, quality, freshness, selling price, product reviews from other buyers, and convenience are particularly important considerations when consumers purchase seafood from online shopping. Second, online retailers and the government must prepare measures to expand seafood consumption by considering household characteristics and consumer lifestyles. Third, it was analyzed that consumers trust the quality and safety of seafood distributed online platforms. It is not possible to provide purchase incentives to consumers who consider value consumption important, so improvement measures are needed. The results of this study are expected to provide implications on consumer preferences to online platforms, seafood companies, and producers, and can be used to establish future marketing strategies.

Development of a Traffic Accident Prediction Model for Urban Signalized Intersections (도시부 신호교차로 안전성 향상을 위한 사고예측모형 개발)

  • Park, Jun-Tae;Lee, Soo-Beom;Kim, Jang-Wook;Lee, Dong-Min
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.26 no.4
    • /
    • pp.99-110
    • /
    • 2008
  • It is commonly estimated that there is a much higher potential for accidents at a crossroads than along a single road due to its plethora of conflicting points. According to the 2006 figures by the National Police Agency, the number of traffic accidents at crossroads is greatly increasing compared to that along single roads. Among others, crossroads installed with traffic signals have more varied influential factors for traffic accidents and leave much more room for improvement than ones without traffic signals; thus, it is expected that a noticeable effect could be achieved in safety if proper counter-measures against the hazards at a crossroads were taken together with an estimate of causes for accidents This research managed to develop models for accident forecasts and accident intensity by applying data on accident history and site inspection of crossroads, targeting four selected downtown crossroads installed with traffic signals. The research was done by roughly dividing the process into four stages: first, analyze the accident model examined before; second, select variables affecting traffic accidents; third, develop a model for traffic accident forecasting by using a statistics-based methodology; and fourth, carry out the verification process of the models.