• Title/Summary/Keyword: 수확량 예측

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The Patterns of Garic and Onion price Cycle in Korea (마늘.양파의 가격동향(價格動向)과 변동(變動)패턴 분석(分析))

  • Choi, Kyu Seob
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • v.4
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    • pp.141-153
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    • 1986
  • This study intends to document the existing cyclical fluctuations of garic and onion price at farm gate level during the period of 1966-1986 in Korea. The existing patterns of such cyclical fluctuations were estimated systematically by removing the seasonal fluctuation and irregular movement as well as secular trend from the original price through the moving average method. It was found that the cyclical fluctuations of garic and onion prices repeated six and seven times respectively during the same period, also the amplitude coefficient of cyclical fluctuations showed speed up in recent years. It was noticed that the cyclical fluctuations of price in onion was higher than that of in garic.

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Development and Validation of the Stand Density Management Diagram for Pinus densiflora Forests in Korea (소나무 임분밀도관리도 작성 및 실용성 검정)

  • Park, Joon Hyung;Lee, Kwang Soo;Yoo, Byung Oh;Park, Yong Bae;Jung, Su Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.105 no.3
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    • pp.342-350
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to make the stand density management diagram which is very useful for establishing systematic management plan and obtaining management goal in Pinus densiflora forest. To estimate 5 models mainly composed of stand density management diagram, we used total of 1,886 sample plots having more than 75% of the total basal area of the pine trees in each stand. To test the goodness of fit, $X^2$ was computed with a significance level of 5%, and the acceptable error range as 20%. Also standard deviation of the model was $34.59m^3{\cdot}ha^{-1}$, minimum acceptable error range was 16.59% and coefficient of variation was 22.11%. If we use the stand density management diagram, it would be useful to establish the timber yield and thinning plan understanding the pathway of stand density management.

Development of Biomass Evaluation Model of Winter Crop Using RGB Imagery Based on Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (무인기 기반 RGB 영상을 이용한 동계작물 바이오매스 평가 모델 개발)

  • Na, Sang-il;Park, Chan-won;So, Kyu-ho;Ahn, Ho-yong;Lee, Kyung-do
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.709-720
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    • 2018
  • In order to optimize the evaluation of biomass in crop monitoring, accurate and timely data of the crop-field are required. Evaluating above-ground biomass helps to monitor crop vitality and to predict yield. Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) imagery are being assessed for analyzing within field spatial variability for agricultural precision management, because UAV imagery may be acquired quickly during critical periods of rapid crop growth. This study reports on the development of remote sensing techniques for evaluating the biomass of winter crop. Specific objective was to develop statistical models for estimating the dry weight of barley and wheat using a Excess Green index ($E{\times}G$) based Vegetation Fraction (VF) and a Crop Surface Model (CSM) based Plant Height (PH) value. As a result, the multiple linear regression equations consisting of three independent variables (VF, PH, and $VF{\times}PH$) and above-ground dry weight provided good fits with coefficients of determination ($R^2$) ranging from 0.86 to 0.99 with 5 cultivars. In the case of the barley, the coefficient of determination was 0.91 and the root mean squared error of measurement was $102.09g/m^2$. And for the wheat, the coefficient of determination was 0.90 and the root mean squared error of measurement was $110.87g/m^2$. Therefore, it will be possible to evaluate the biomass of winter crop through the UAV image for the crop growth monitoring.

Characterization of small ubiquitin-like modifier E3 ligase, OsSIZ1, mutant in rice (벼의 small ubiquitin-like modifier E3 ligase, OsSIZ1 돌연변이체의 특성 분석)

  • Park, Hyeong Cheol;Koo, Sung Cheol;Kim, Hun;Choi, Wonkyun;Yun, Dae-Jin
    • Journal of Plant Biotechnology
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.235-241
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    • 2012
  • Sumoylation is a reversible conjugation process that attaches the small ubiquitin modifier (SUMO) peptide to target proteins and regulates a wide variety of cellular functions in eucaryotes. As final step of the sumoylation, SUMO E3 ligases facilitate conjugation of SUMO to target proteins. To characterize the functions of the SUMO E3 ligases in Oryza sativa, we isolated a single recessive rice SUMO E3 ligase, Ossiz1-2 mutant. In addition, we also confirmed the interaction between OsSIZ1/-2 and OsSUMO1, respectively, by using an Agrobacterium-based tobacco luciferase transient expression system. Ossiz1-2 mutant exhibited approximately 20% reduction in growth and developmental units compared with wild type. Especially, number of filled seeds and total seed weight were dramatically decreased in the Ossiz1-2 mutant rice. Thus, these results suggest that sumoylation by the OsSIZ1 as SUMO E3 ligase plays an important role in regulating growth and development in rice.

Development of Technology for Intensive Production of High-Quality Rosemary Shoots (고품질 로즈마리 어린 순 생산을 위한 적정 삽수 길이 및 삽목 시기 구명)

  • Myeong-Suk Kim;Se-Hyun Gi;Jung-Seob Moon;Gue-Saeng Yeom;Song-Hee Ahn;Dong-Chun Jung
    • Proceedings of the Plant Resources Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2021.04a
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    • pp.43-43
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    • 2021
  • 로즈마리(Rosmarinus officinalis)는 지중해 지역이 원산이고 꿀풀과에 속하는 다년생 식물로 자생지에서는 식물의 크기가 2m까지 자라는 관목성 식물이다. 식용, 약용, 미용, 향료뿐 아니라 관상용으로도 널리 이용되고 있고 특히 향이 좋아 세계 로즈마리 추출물 시장은 연평균 4.8%씩 증가하여 2027년에는 10억 달러를 넘을 것으로 예측된다. 우리나라도 소비 트렌드 변화에 따른 이용성 확대로 신선허브의 수요가 증가하고 있으나 아직은 허브 식물원료의 대부분을 수입에 의존하고 있고, 로즈마리 역시 식물원료뿐 아니라 가공품까지 외국에서 수입하여 사용하는 실정이다. 2018년 로즈마리 수입량은 신선상태 978kg, 건조상태 23,404kg으로 높은 수입의존에 따른 가격 상승과 긴 유통기간에 의한 품질 저하 등의 문제가 발생하고 있다. 본 연구는 로즈마리 어린 순 재배 적정 삽수 길이를 설정하고 어린 순 생산 가능 기간을 구명하여 추후에 고품질 로즈마리 어린 순 집약생산을 위한 다단재배기술을 확립하고자 수행되었다. 삽수 길이는 5, 10, 15cm로 하였고, 삽목 시기는 4월 하순 ~ 8월 하순까지 30일 간격으로 5회 실시하였다. 적정 삽수 길이 설정 실험에서는 15cm 삽수 발근률이 85.6%로 가장 높았으며 신초 출현시기는 5월 26일, 어린 순 생산시기는 6월 23일로 가장 빨랐고 수확시까지 소요일수는 56일로 가장 짧았다. 기대수량 또한 728g/m2로 가장 높았다. 로즈마리 어린 순 생산 가능 기간 구명 실험에서는 4월 28일 삽목시 발근율이 85.6%로 가장 높았고 육묘기간은 28일 어린 순 생산까지 소요일수는 56일로 가장 짧았다. 삽목 시기별 어린 순 품질 및 생산량은 4월 28일 삽목시 품질이 좋았으며 기대수량 또한 728g/m2로 가장 높았다. 결과적으로 상품성 있는 어린순 생산에 적합한 삽수 길이는 15cm, 삽목 시기는 4월 하순 경에 했을 때, 로즈마리의 생육상태, 수확까지의 기간, 어린 순 생산량 등 종합적인 면에서 가장 우수한 값을 얻을 수 있었다.

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A global-scale assessment of agricultural droughts and their relation to global crop prices (전 지구 농업가뭄 발생특성 및 곡물가격과의 상관성 분석)

  • Kim, Daeha;Lee, Hyun-Ju
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.12
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    • pp.883-893
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    • 2023
  • While South Korea's dependence on imported grains is very high, droughts impacts from exporting countries have been overlooked. Using the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), this study globally analyzed frequency, extent, and long-term trends of agricultural droughts and their relation to natural oscillations and global crop prices. Results showed that global-scale correlations were found between ESI and soil moisture anomalies, and they were particularly strong in crop cultivation areas. The high correlations in crop cultivation areas imply a strong land-atmosphere coupling, which can lead to relatively large yield losses with a minor soil moisture deficits. ESI showed a clear decreasing trend in crop cultivation areas from 1991 to 2022, and this trend may continue due to global warming. The sharp increases in the grain prices in 2012 and 2022 were likely related to increased drought areas in major grain-exporting countries, and they seemed to elevate South Korea's producer price index. This study suggests the need for drought risk management for grain-exporting countries to reduce socioeconomic impacts in South Korea.

Estimation of Long-term Water Demand by Principal Component and Cluster Analysis and Practical Application (주성분분석과 군집분석을 이용한 장기 물수요예측과 활용)

  • Koo, Ja-Yong;Yu, Myung-Jin;Kim, Shin-Geol;Shim, Mi-Hee;Akira, Koizumi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.27 no.8
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    • pp.870-876
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    • 2005
  • The multiple regression models which have two factors(population and commercial area) have been used to forecast the water demand in the future. But, the coefficient of population had a negative value because proper regional classification wasn't performed, and it is not reasonable because the population must be a positive factor. So, the regional classification was performed by principal component and cluster analysis to solve the problem. 6 regional characters were transformed into 4 principal components, and the areas were divided into two groups according to cluster analysis which had 4 principal components. The new regression models were made by each group, and the problem was solved. And, the future water demands were estimated by three scenarios(Active, moderate, and passive one). The increase of water demand ore $89.034\;m^3/day$ in active plat $49,077\;m^3/day$ in moderate plan, and $19,996\;m^3/day$ in passive plan. The water supply ability as scenarios is enough in water treatment plant, however, 2 reservoirs among 4 reservoirs don't have enough retention time in all scenarios.

Forecasting Late Blight of Potatoes at the Alpine Area in Korea (한국의 고랭지대에 있어서의 감자역병 발생예찰에 관하여)

  • Hahm Y. I.;Hahm B. H.;Franckowiak J. D.
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.17 no.2 s.35
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    • pp.81-87
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    • 1978
  • Late blight incited by Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) de Bary, is an important problem for seed potato prodcution in Korea. At the alpine Daekwanryeong area, unprotected potatoes are often defoliated within 14 days after late blight is first observed in the field. Since regular spraying can control late blight, the forecasting service is needed for timely initiation of the spraying program. Climatological data and notes on late blight incidence were recorded during 1970-1977 at the Alpine Experiment Station. The moving graph method using 7-day average mean temperature and 7-day total rainfall did not give highly accurate forecasts. Adding data on relative humidity and 7-day average minimum temperature increased the usefulness of the moving graph. Yields of late blight susceptible varietieties in sprayed plots were related to late blight occurrence and to the rainfall distribution pattern.

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Regionality and Variability of Net Primary Productivity and Rice Yield in Korea (우리 나라의 순1차생산력 및 벼 수량의 지역성과 변이성)

  • JUNG YEONG-SANG;BANG JUNG-HO;HAYASHI YOSEI
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 1999
  • Rice yield and primary productivity (NPP) are dependent upon the variability of climate and soil. The variability and regionality of the rice yield and net primary productivity were evaluated with the meteorological data collected from Korea Meteorology Administration and the actual rice yield data from the Ministration of Agriculture and Forestry, Korea. The estimated NPP using the three models, dependent upon temperature(NPP-T), precipitation(NPP-P) and net radiation(NPP-R), ranged from 10.87 to 17.52 Mg ha$^{-1}$ with average of 14.69 Mg ha$^{-1}$ in the South Korea and was ranged 6.47 to 15.58 Mg ha$^{-1}$ with average of 12.59 Mg ha$^{-1}$ in the North Korea. The primary limiting factor of NPP in Korea was net radiation, and the secondary limiting factor was temperature. Spectral analysis on the long term change in air temperature in July and August showed periodicity. The short periodicity was 3 to 7 years and the long periodicity was 15 to 43 years. The coefficient of variances, CV, of the rice yield from 1989 to 1998 ranged 3.23 percents to 12.37 percents which were lower than past decades. The CV's in Kangwon and Kyeongbuk were high while that in Chonbuk was the lowest. The prediction model based on th e yield index and yield response to temperature obtain ed from the field crop situation showed reasonable results and thus the spatial distributions of rice yield and predicted yield could be expressed in the maps. The predicted yields was well fitted with the actual yield except Kyungbuk. For better prediction, modification should be made considering radiation factor in further development.

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Application of CBM-CFS3 Model to Assess Carbon Stock and Age Class Changes Over Long Term Forest Planning in a Korea's National Forest (산림탄소축적을 고려한 국유림 장기경영계획 수립을 위한 CBM-CFS3 모델의 적용)

  • Jang, Kwangmin;Won, Hyun-Kyu;Kim, Young-Hwan;Tak, Kwang-IL;Shin, Man Yong;Lee, Kyeonghak
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.100 no.4
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    • pp.591-597
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    • 2011
  • Forest carbon stock changes in a national forest were assessed by CBM-CFS3 model with different management scenarios to support decision making for a long term forest planning. Management scenarios were composed with 4 different levels of timber harvesting - current harvesting level (scenario1), 30% increment in each period (scenario2), 3 times increment (scenario3), and 5 times increment (scenario4). For each scenarios, changes in total carbon stocks, carbon stocks of each carbon pools, carbon stocks of harvested wood products (HWP) and age class structure were estimated over 100-year planning horizon. The estimated total carbon stock including HWP at the end of final period (100 years) was 433.1 tC/ha under scenario 1, but the age class structure has skewed right to the upper classes, which is not desirable for sustainable forest management. Under the scenario 4, however, the total carbon stock decrease to 385.5 tC/ha and the area of old growth forest show a significant decline. The estimated total carbon stock under scenario 2 and 3 were 411.7 tC/ha and 410.5 tC/ha respectively, and it was able to maintain the initial level of the forest carbon stocks during the planning horizon. Also the age class structures under the scenario 2 and 3 were evenly distributed from class 1 to class 8. Overall, scenario 2 and 3 were the most acceptable forest management options, in terms of carbon stock changes and age class structure.