• Journal of Nutrition and Health
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.533-542
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• 2010

The objective of this study is to provide basic information and policy implications needed to balance the supply and demand for dietitian by projecting supply and demand for dietitian. The data from the Ministry of Health Welfare and Family on the number of licensed nutritionist, resident registration data of the Ministry of Public Administration and Security, and health insurance qualification data of the National Health Insurance Corporation were used to examine the current status of supply. To project the supply of nutritionist workforce, the in-out moves method and demographic method were used. The ratios of nutritionist to population and GDP, and that of other countries were applied as the demand projection method. According to the study results, the projection on the imbalance of supply and demand for dietitian by year 2021 differs depending on the method used. First, according to the results based on age-adjusted population ratio, there is an oversupply of 1,643 dietitians in year 2010, and 2,076 dietitians in year 2020. Second, although the projection on the imbalance of the supply and demand for dietitian differs depending on whether the GDD is calculated in won(￦) or dollar($). it is expected that there will be an oversupply in general. Third, as to the scenario using the nutritionist ratio in foreign countries, the oversupply of dietitian is likely in Korea, under any scenario, when comparing the nutritionist supply projection with the demand projection based on the nutritionist ratio in the United States. However, the projection of the supply and demand varies in each scenario when the European nutritionist ratio is applied. Under European 'scenario 1', an oversupply is expected, whereas under 'scenario 2', a shortage of supply is expected. A careful approach is required in interpreting the supply and demand projection using criteria of other countries, because dietitian assumes different roles and functions in each country. Although a slight oversupply of nutritionist workforce is projected, it does not cause a major problem as the demand for diet therapy is expected to rise due to aging and the increase of chronic diseases, and as the demand for clinical dietitians in hospitals increases. Accordingly, the demand for dietitians will rise and, in this context, the oversupply of nutritionist will not incur much problem. However, the nutritionist qualification is much too open in Korea, and this has a negative effect on the quality of the nutritionist workforce. Therefore, it is important that the nutritionist qualifications and requirements are reinforced in the future, enhance the quality level of the nutritionist supply, and maintain the balance between the supply and demand.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.421-437
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• 2020

This paper implemented a method to predict the fertility rate, mortality rate, and international migration rate using the R program, which has been widely used in recent years, that calculates population projection by substituting the results into the Leslie matrix. In particular, the generalization log gamma model for the fertility rate by Kaneko (2003), LC-ER model for mortality rate by Li et al. (2013), and functional data model for international migration rates proposed by Ramsay and Silverman (2005) and Hyndman and Booth (2008), Hyndman et al. (2013) can be directly demonstrated with R programs. Demography and bayesPop have been introduced as a representative demographic package implemented in R; however, it can be analyzed only for data uploaded to Human Mortality Database (HMD) and Human Fertility Database (HFD) with data changes and modifications requiring application of other data. In particular, in Korea, there is a limitation in applying this package because it is provided only for short-term data in HMD. This paper introduces an R program that can reflect this situation and the different patterns of low fertility, aging, migration of domestic and foreigners in Korea, and derives a population projection for the year 2117.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.47 no.1
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• pp.98-120
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• 2012

The main objective of this study is to conduct subnational population projections of Korea based on a multiregional cohort-component method. This objective is accomplished by: (i) establishing a viable framework to implement the multiregional cohort-component method with reference to the Markov chain model and Rogers' multiregional population projection model; (ii) applying the established framework to subnational population projections of Korea, 2005~2030. The main results are twofold. First, the proposed method turns out to be highly valid in a methodological sense, which is seen from a high level of coincidence between the estimated and the observed. Second, the projection results turn out to be highly useful in the sense that interregional migration flow matrices are resulted for projection periods. The projected migration flows are expected to provide invaluable information for an understanding of future population change and for a formulation of policy alternatives. This study is strongly inspired by the multiregional perspective emphasizing the evolution of multiple regional populations interconnected by interregional migration flows rather than the overall national change.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.1135-1139
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• 2006

가뭄은 홍수와 함께 인류역사상 가장 큰 재해로 인식되어 있다. 미해양대기청의 발표에 따르면 20세기 최대 자연재해의 상위 5위 안에 4개의 가뭄이 포함되어 있다. 이러한 기록은 가뭄이 동서고금을 막론하고 국가의 흥망성쇠를 좌우할 만큼 막대한 피해를 입혀왔음을 의미한다. 그러나 가뭄의 해석은 가뭄의 정의 자체가 확실하지 않고 서서히 찾아오는 자연재해이기 때문에 그 시작과 끝을 인식하기 어렵다. 아울러 그 진행속도도 굉장히 느리며 또한 장기간에 걸쳐 지속되는 특성을 가지고 있고 시공간적으로 전파된다. 따라서 가뭄의 해석은 굉장히 까다로운 것이라 할 수 있으며 그 해석방법 또한 다양할 수 밖에 없다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 전역 59개 지점의 표준강수지수(Standard Precipitation Index) 시계열 자료에 대한 공간적 패턴분석과 시간적인 자료확장을 시도하였다. 경험적 직교함수(Emperical Orthogonal function) 해석을 이용하여 자료의 공간적인 패턴을 확인하였고 EOF 해석에서 나타난 EOF Coefficient Time Series를 추계학적 모형에 적용하여 시간적인 자료 확장을 수행하였다. 이렇게 확장된 긴 기간의 자료를 이용하면 재현기간에 대한 평균적인 가뭄심도를 추출할 수 있으며 실제 나타난 사상의 재현기간이 어느 정도인지 평가할 수 있다. 또한 이렇게 나타난 가뭄심도를 강수부족량으로 환산하여 우리나라 대권역별 물부족량을 평가하였다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.29-37
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• 1993

The extension of the weighted integral method in the area of stochastic finite element analysis is presented. The use of weighted integral method in numerical analysis was extended to CST(constant strain triangle) element by Deodatis to calculate the response variability of 2D stochastic systems. In this paper, the extension of the weighted integral method for general plane-elements is represented. It has been shown that the same mesh used in the deterministic FE analysis can be used in the stochastic FE analysis. Furthermore, because the CST element is a special case which has constant strain-displacement matrix the mingling of CST elements with the other quadrilateral elements in the analysis may also be possible.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.9 no.6 s.46
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• pp.53-58
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• 2005

Semi-analytical methodology to examine the dynamic responses of a bridge is developed via the joint probability density function. The evolution of joint probability density function is evaluated by the semi-analytical procedure developed. The joint probability function of the bridge responses can be obtained by solving the path-integral solution of the Fokker-Planet equation corresponding to the stochastic differential equations of the system. The response characteristics are observed from the joint probability density function and the boundary of the envelope of the probability density function can provide the maxima ol the bridge responses.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.1167-1173
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• 2011

The goal of this paper is to suggest an algorithm to get forecasting for the numbers of students in the city or county in local government by using the double exponential smoothing method. By 2044 year, the third year of high school students in the Chilgok, Gumi, Gyeongsan, Andong, Pohang and Gimchen are reduced about 40-70%, the those of in the remaining city or county are reduced about 70-95%. In conclusion, the forecasting numbers of students of the 23 counties in Kyungbuk Province are on the decrease to 40%-100% until 2044 year in comparison with the numbers of students on 2010 years.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.336-336
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• 2019

기후변화는 미래 수문 순환 및 수자원에 악영향을 미칠 수 있는 가장 잠재력이 큰 요인이다. 특히 강우량의 변동은 가뭄 홍수를 더욱 양극화 할 수 있으며, 지역별 수문 순환에 막대한 영향을 주기 때문에 수자원 관리 계획 수립 시 기후변화 요소를 필히 고려해야 한다. 추계 강우 생성 모형은 상대적으로 적은 매개변수를 이용하여 긴 강우 시나리오를 생성할 수 있는 장점을 바탕으로 기후 변화와 결합하여 기후 변화 영향 평가에 활발하게 활용되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 General Circulation Model(GCM)으로 모의한 미래 월강우 자료에서 기후변화에 따른 강우량의 변화를 변동 인자(Change factor)로 정량화하고, 강우생성모형인 THM(The hybrid model)에 적용하여 미래 강우 시나리오를 모의하고자 한다. 먼저 기상청 28개 종관기상관측소를 대상으로 강우생성모형의 성능을 평가 하였고, 그 결과 집성기간 1시간-1일에 해당하는 강우의 통계치를 성공적으로 재현함을 확인하였다. 본 연구에서 생성된 미래 강우 시나리오는 1) 기후변화를 고려하였으며, 2) 시 단위의 고해상도 강우자료이며, 3) 수문 모의에 필요한 만큼 충분히 길게 생성할 수 있기 때문에 미래 수자원 관리 계획 및 수문 분석에 효과적으로 활용될 것이다.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.265-274
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• 2010

In many tunnels, falling or sliding of rock blocks often occur, which cannot be predicted because of the complexity of rock discontinuities and it has brought an exponential increase in costs and time to manage. It is difficult to estimate the properties of rock masses before the tunnel excavation. The observational design and construction method in tunnels has been becoming important recently. In this study, a new hybrid stochastic-deterministic rock block analysis method for the prediction of the unstable rock blocks before the tunnel excavation is proposed, and then applied to the tunnel construction based on actual rock discontinuity information observed in the field. The comparisons and investigations with the analytical results in the tunnel construction have confirmed the validity and applicability of this new hybrid stochastic-deterministic rock block analysis method in tunnels.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.789-799
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• 2007

In this paper, we propose a stochastic finite element formulation which takes into account the randonmess in the material and geometrical parameters. The formulation is proposed for plate structures, and is based on the weighted integral approach. Contrary to the case of elastic modulus, plate thickness contributes to the stiffness as a third-order function. Furthermore, Poisson's ratio is even more complex since this parameter appears in the constitutive relations in the fraction form. Accordingly, we employ Taylor's expansion to derive decomposed stochastic field functions in ascending order. In order to verify the proposed formulation, the results obtained using the proposed scheme are compared with those in the literature and those of Monte Carlo analysis as well.