• Title/Summary/Keyword: 설명 가능성

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Invariant causal prediction for time series data: Application to won dollar exchange rate data (시계열 자료에서 불변하는 인과성 탐색: 원-달러 환율 데이터에 적용)

  • Kim, Mijeong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.837-848
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    • 2021
  • Evaluating or predicting the effectiveness of economic policies is an important issue, but it is difficult to find an economic variable which causes a significant result because there are numerous variables that cannot be taken into account. A randomized controlled experiment is the best way to investigate causality, but it is not realistically possible to control through randomization and intervention in time series data such as macroeconomic data. Although some analysis methods have been proposed to find causality, the methods such as Granger causality method and Chow test are insufficient to explain causality. Recently, Pfister et al. (2019) proposed invariant causal prediction methods which can be applicable in time series data. In this paper, we introduce the method of Pfister et al. (2019) and use the method to find macroeconomic variables invariantly affecting the won-dollar exchange rate.

The Legal Interest of Doctor's Duty to Inform and the Compensation to Damages for Non-pecuniary Loss (의료행위에서 설명의무의 보호법익과 설명의무 위반에 따른 위자료 배상)

  • Yi, Jaekyeong
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.37-73
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    • 2020
  • Medical practice with medical adaptability is not illegal. Consent to medical practice is also not intended to exclude causes of Illegality. The patient's consent to medical practice is the exercise of the right to self-determination, and the patient's right to self-determination is take shape through the doctor's information. If a doctor violates his duty to inform, failure to inform or lack of inform constitutes an act of illegality of omission in itself. As a result, the legal interest of self-determination is violated. The patient has the right to know and make decisions on his or her own, even when it is not connected to the benefit of life and body as the subject of the body. If that infringed and lost, the non-property damage shall be recognized and the immaterial damage must be compensated. On the other hand, the violation of the duty of information does not belong to deny the compensation for physical damage. Which the legal interest violated by violation of the obligation to inform is the self-determination, and loss of opportunity of choice is recognized as ordinary damage. However, if the opportunity of choice was lost because of the infringement of the right to self-determination and the patient could not choice the better way, that dose not occur plainly bad results, under the prove of these causal relationship, that bad results could be compensated. But the unexpectable damage could not be compensated, because the physical damage is considered as the special damage due to the violation of the right of the self-determination.

Estimation of Wage Differentials Caused by the Selection of Preferred Job (입직 과정에서의 희망직장 선택이 임금에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Choi, Youngsup
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.97-129
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    • 2002
  • It is well known that the quality of job match has strong influence on the efficient allocation of labor resources in the economy on the macro level and also on the productivity of individual worker. Regarding this point we assumed that the selection of preferred job at the job entry can be interpreted as a subjective indicator of job match quality and tried to estimate the effects of such selection on the wage level. For this purpose we suggested random effects switching regression model and applied this model to the data of the Korea Labor Institute Panel Study from 1998 to 2000. As the results of estimation, we found that there exists large wage differentials at least more than fifty percent caused by such selection. Considering the fact that such wage differentials can not be suitably explained by the traditional reasons of the wage discrimination, we suggest the possibility that there also exists large productivity gap caused by the job mismatch and the necessity of improving the job placement service activity.

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The Repetition Effects of LDP Stimulus Words on Word Completion Tasl and Cued-Recall Task (처리깊이에 따른 학습단어의 반복제시가 단어완성검사와 단서 회상검사에 미치는 효과)

  • Kim, Mi-Ra;Lee, Man-Young
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.115-134
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    • 1996
  • The study was designed to investigate implicit and explicit memory for words with processing theory.From experiment 1 to experiment 3,in a study phase,subjects first viewed stimulus words and were required to rate likeness of words of semantic processing task and to count lines of words of perceptual processing task.In a test phase,subjects were tested by implicit word completion task and explicit cued recall task.In experiment 1,levels of processing (LOP)effects were examined.Lop effects were obtained on the explicit memory tasks but not on the implicit memory tasks.In experiment 2,repertition of perceptual processing task influenced onlu implicit memory task.In experiment 3,bepertiotion of semantic processing task affected both implicit memory task and explicit memory task.These findings suggest that repetition effect of stimulus words are explanied better in dual process theory than transfer-appropriate processing theory.

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Two Cases of Acute Glufosinate Ammonium Intoxication with Disparate Outcomes (급성 글루포시네이트 중독 후 서로 다른 예후를 보인 2례: 증례보고)

  • Han, Hong Joon;Jeong, Ju Ho
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.108-113
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    • 2018
  • 목적 글루포시네이트암모늄은 비선택성 제초제로 1984년 일본에서 개발되었으며, 급성 중독시에는 위장관계 증상뿐만 아니라 의식변화, 경련, 호흡부전 및 기억소실 등과 같은 다양한 임상증상을 보이는 것으로 알려져 있다. 한국에는 1994년 소개된 이후로 널리 사용되고 있으며, 사용량의 증가와함께 음독환자가 점점 증가하여 사회적 문제가 되고 있다. 저자들은 최근 글로포시네이트 중독 환자에서 초기치료 후 지연성 악화를 보였던 2례를 문헌고찰과 함께 보고하고자 한다. 방법 및 결과 첫 번째 증례는 62세의 남자환자로 음주상태에서 글루포시네이트암모늄 음독 후 의식 저하 상태로 발견되어 응급실로 이송되었다. 응급 위세척을 시행 후 보존적 치료 및 집중모니터링을 유지하였고, 의식수준은 6시간 후에 거의 명료한 상태로 호전되었다. 지연성 악화의 가능성에 대해설명하고 지속적인 경과관찰 및 치료를 위해 집중치료실 입원이 필요함에 대해 설명하였으나, 환자와 보호자는 타상급병원으로의 전원을 원하였다. 환자는 이송 중에 발생한 심폐정지로 심폐소생술을 시행하였으나, 회복되지 못하고 사망하였다. 두 번째 증례는 54세의 남자 환자로 글루포시네이트암모늄 음독 후 발생한 의식 변화로 응급실로 이송되었다. 내원시 의식은 혼미한 상태였으며 앞의 증례와 같이 응급 위세척을 시행하였다. 본 환자는 초기치료 후 본원 집중치료실에서 지속적인 혈액 및 생화학적 검사를 시행하였으며, 집중모니터링 및 치료를 유지하였다. 입원 2일째 혈액검사 소견은 호전 중이었으나, 경련이 발생하였으며 의식은 혼미한 상태가 지속되었다. 신경과 협진하여 뇌파검사를 시행 후 항경련제를 증량한 후로 경련은 발생하지 않았다. 입원 7일째에는 의식 수준은 거의 명료한 상태까지 호전되었다. 입원 13일째 혈액 및 생화학검사에서 약간의 혈색소 감소 외에는 정상소견을 보였으며, 뚜렷한 신경학적 합병증 없이 퇴원하였다. 결론 급성 글루포시네이트중독 환자는 매우 다양한 임상증상을 보이며 초기치료 후에 상태가 안정적이더라도 지연성으로 임상적 또는 신경학적 악화가 발생할 가능성이 있으므로 치료에 유의하여야 한다.

Index Transitivity and Transformation of Separable Systems (분리가능 시스템의 지수 추이성과 변환)

  • 변석우
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.658-666
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    • 2004
  • Separable systems are defined in term rewriting systems, respecting the notion of separability in the λ-calculus. In this research, we generalize separable systems of term rewriting systems, which was studied in restrictive systems such as constructive systems. We also associate separability with index-transitivity and with forward branching Separability is identified with forward branching, and strong sequentiality with index-transitivity satisfies separability. These are such good properties that enable us to describe the procedure of pattern-matching as an index tree, which is a sort of automata, and to transform separable systems into a constructor system with a simple pattern. Separable systems, in particular, can be translated into the λ-calculus. This research can serve a theoretical basis which allows functional languages to be explained by the λ-calculus, since functional languages such as ML and Haskell belong to a subclass of separable systems.

Fund Flow and Market Risk (펀드플로우와 시장위험)

  • Chung, Hyo-Youn;Park, Jong-Won
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.169-204
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    • 2010
  • This paper examines the dynamic relationship between fund flow and market risk at the aggregate level and explores whether sudden sharp changes in fund flow (fund run) can cause a systemic risk in the Korean financial markets. We use daily and weekly data and regression and VAR analysis. Main results of the paper are as follows: First, in the stock market, a concurrent and a lagged unexpected fund flows have a positive relationship with market volatility. A positive shock in fund flow predicts an increase in stock market volatility. In the bond market, an unexpected fund flow has a negative relationship with the default risk premium, but a positive relationship with the term premium. And an unexpected fund flow of the money market fund has a negative relationship with the liquidy risk, but the explanatory power is very low. Second, for examining whether changes in fund flow induce a systemic risk, we construct a spillover index based on the forecast error variance decomposition of VAR model. A spillover index represents that how much the shock in fund flow can explain the change of market risk in a market. In general, explanatory powers from spillover indexes are so fluctuant and low. In the stock market, the impact of shocks in fund flow on market risk is relatively high and persistent during the period from the end of 2007 to 2008, which is the subprime-mortgage crisis period. In bond market, since the end of 2008, the impact of shocks in fund flow spreads to default risk continually, while in the money market, such a systematic effect doesn't take place. The persistent patterns of spillover effect appearing around a certain period in the stock market and the bond market suggest that the shock to the unexpected fund flow may increase the market risk and can be a cause of systemic risk in the financial markets. However, summarizing the results of regression and VAR model analysis, and considering the very low explanatory power of spillover index analysis, we can conclude that changes in fund flow have a very limited power in explaining changes in market risk and it is not very likely to induce the systemic risk by a fund run in the Korean financial markets.

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Comparison of Resident Register With Census Data According to Age Groups (주민등록자료와 인구주택총조사의 연령별 비교에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, U-Seok;Lee, Myoung-Jin
    • Survey Research
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.23-53
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    • 2008
  • To estimate the usability of resident register for the statistical purpose this study compares resident register with census data. The comparison shows that the differences between resident register and census data are closely related with life cycle. Among the aged the incorrect registration is supposed as the main cause for the difference, while among the other age groups the problems rise mainly from their social and economic activities. Especially among the age group between 15 and 24 level of the difference is very high, which results from university entrance and employment. This result confirms the importance of the comparison between these data according to age groups. The structural character of this difference suggests that the difference can be explained and reduced through policies.

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Evaluating the Items Derived from Technology Foresight (기술예측결과로 도출된 아이템의 재평가 방법)

  • Park, Young-Wook;Hong, Sung-Wha;Lee, Jun-Young;Kim, Kang-Hoe;Yeo, Woon-Dong
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.12 no.12
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    • pp.797-809
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    • 2012
  • Many organizations release future emerging technologies information because it is very important to companies. However, unfortunately there are few organizations who assess the emerging technologies they thought a few years ago. We made a framework for assessing the brightness of future emerging technologies rapidly and cost-effectively. We came up with 2 new concepts for it. One is product potential and the other is consumption potential. Product potential is relative probability that emerging technology is implemented to real products. It is resulted from analyzing patents related with emerging technology. Consumption potential is relative probability that consumers buy the products. The number of appearances of emerging technology in the mass media is related to consumption potential. We compared the brightness between LED and LCD technologies with proposed evaluating framework, and came to know that LCD has more brightness over LED.

Presidentialism and Consensual Politics: The Problems of South Korea and the US and Chile's Alternative Party Systems (대통령제와 협치가능성: 한국의 문제점과 미국 및 칠레의 대안적 정당체계들)

  • Lee, Sun-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.69-106
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    • 2021
  • This paper aims to explain why severe political conflicts and confrontation between the ruling and opposition forces have been continuously caused, focusing on the institutional combination of presidentialism and the two-party system with strong party disciplines, after democratization in South Korea. And this also presents the US as a case in which presidentialism and a two-party system with weak party disciplines were combined once, and the Chile as another case in which presidentialism and a multi-party system with strong party disciplines is combined, respectively, and further analyzes how the chance of consensual politics could be raised in both the countries. In addition, this study suggests a practical implication that, in South Korea also, the political reforms for changes in party system such as the decentralization or democratization in party organizations to enhance the autonomy of individual legislators, or the introduction of runoff system in presidential elections or proportional representation system in parliamentary elections to product a multi-party system, are required for a high chance of consensual politics.