• Title/Summary/Keyword: 선택만족

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Long-Term Survival Analysis of Unicompartmental Knee Arthroplasty (슬관절 부분 치환술의 장기 생존 분석)

  • Park, Cheol Hee;Lee, Ho Jin;Son, Hyuck Sung;Bae, Dae Kyung;Song, Sang Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Orthopaedic Association
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.427-434
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: This study evaluated the long term clinical and radiographic results and the survival rates of unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA). In addition, the factors affecting the survival of the procedure were analyzed and the survival curve was compared according to the affecting factors. Materials and Methods: Ninety-nine cases of UKA performed between December 1982 and January 1996 were involved: 10 cases with Modular II, 44 cases with Microloc, and 45 cases with Allegretto prostheses. The mean follow-up period was 16.5 years. Clinically, the hospital for special surgery (HSS) scoring system and the range of motion (ROM) were evaluated. Radiographically, the femorotibial angle (FTA) was measured. The survival rate was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox regression analysis was used to identify the factors affecting the survival according to age, sex, body mass index, preoperative diagnosis, and type of implant. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves were compared according to the factors affecting the survival of UKA. Results: The overall average HSS score and ROM was 57.7 and 134.3° preoperatively, 92.7 and 138.4° at 1 year postoperatively, and 79.1 and 138.4° at the last follow-up (p<0.001, respectively). The overall average FTA was varus 0.8° preoperatively, valgus 4.1° at postoperative 2 weeks, and valgus 3.0° at the last follow-up. The overall 5-, 10-, 15- and 20-year survival rates were 91.8%, 82.9%, 71.0%, and 67.0%, respectively. The factors affecting the survival were the age and type of implant. The risk of the failure decreased with age (hazard ratio=0.933). The Microloc group was more hazardous than the other prostheses (hazard ratio=0.202, 0.430, respectively). The survival curve in the patients below 60 years of age was significantly lower than those of the patients over 60 years of age (p=0.003); the survival curve of the Microloc group was lower compared to the Modular II and Allegretto groups (p=0.025). Conclusion: The long-term clinical and radiographic results and survival of UKA using old fixed bearing prostheses were satisfactory. The selection of appropriate patient and prosthesis will be important for the long term survival of the UKA procedure.

Application of Amplitude Demodulation to Acquire High-sampling Data of Total Flux Leakage for Tendon Nondestructive Estimation (덴던 비파괴평가를 위한 Total Flux Leakage에서 높은 측정빈도의 데이터를 획득하기 위한 진폭복조의 응용)

  • Joo-Hyung Lee;Imjong Kwahk;Changbin Joh;Ji-Young Choi;Kwang-Yeun Park
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2023
  • A post-processing technique for the measurement signal of a solenoid-type sensor is introduced. The solenoid-type sensor nondestructively evaluates an external tendon of prestressed concrete using the total flux leakage (TFL) method. The TFL solenoid sensor consists of primary and secondary coils. AC electricity, with the shape of a sinusoidal function, is input in the primary coil. The signal proportional to the differential of the input is induced in the secondary coil. Because the amplitude of the induced signal is proportional to the cross-sectional area of the tendon, sectional loss of the tendon caused by ruptures or corrosion can be identified by the induced signal. Therefore, it is important to extract amplitude information from the measurement signal of the TFL sensor. Previously, the amplitude was extracted using local maxima, which is the simplest way to obtain amplitude information. However, because the sampling rate is dramatically decreased by amplitude extraction using the local maxima, the previous method places many restrictions on the direction of TFL sensor development, such as applying additional signal processing and/or artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, the proposed method uses amplitude demodulation to obtain the signal amplitude from the TFL sensor, and the sampling rate of the amplitude information is same to the raw TFL sensor data. The proposed method using amplitude demodulation provides ample freedom for development by eliminating restrictions on the first coil input frequency of the TFL sensor and the speed of applying the sensor to external tension. It also maintains a high measurement sampling rate, providing advantages for utilizing additional signal processing or artificial intelligence. The proposed method was validated through experiments, and the advantages were verified through comparison with the previous method. For example, in this study the amplitudes extracted by amplitude demodulation provided a sampling rate 100 times greater than those of the previous method. There may be differences depending on the given situation and specific equipment settings; however, in most cases, extracting amplitude information using amplitude demodulation yields more satisfactory results than previous methods.

An Expert System for the Estimation of the Growth Curve Parameters of New Markets (신규시장 성장모형의 모수 추정을 위한 전문가 시스템)

  • Lee, Dongwon;Jung, Yeojin;Jung, Jaekwon;Park, Dohyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.17-35
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    • 2015
  • Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.

Mid-Term Results of 292 cases of Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting (관상동맥 우회술 292례의 중기 성적)

  • 김태윤;김응중;이원용;지현근;신윤철;김건일
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.35 no.9
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    • pp.643-652
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    • 2002
  • As the prevalence of coronay artery disease is increasing, the surgical treatment has been universalized and operative outcome has been improved. We analyzed the short and mid-term results of 292 CABGs performed in Kangdong Sacred Heart Hospital. Material and Method: From June 1994 to December 2001, 292 patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting. There were 173 men and 119 women and their ages ranged from 39 to 84 years with a mean of $61.8{\pm}9.1$ years. We analyzed the preoperative risk factors, operative procedures and operative outcome. In addition, we analyzed the recurrence of symptoms, long-term mortality and complications via out-patient follow-up for discharged patients. Result: Preoperative clinical diagnoses were unstable angina in 137(46.9%), stable angina in 34(11.6%), acute myocardial infarction in 40(13.7%), non-Q myocardial infarction in 25(8.6%), postinfarction angina in 22(7.5%), cardiogenic shock in 30(10.3%) and PTCA failure in 4(1.4%) patients. Preoperative angiographic diagnoses were three-vessel disease in 157(53.8%), two-vessel disease in 35 (12.0%), one-vessel disease in 11(3.8%) and left main disease in 89(30.5%) patients. We used saphenous veins in 630, internal thoracic arteries in 257, radial arteries in 50, and right gastoepiploic arteries in 2 distal anastomoses. The mean number of distal anastomoses per patient was $3.2{\pm}1.0$ There were 18 concomitant procedures ; valve replacement in 8(2.7%), left main coronary artery angioplasty in 6(2.1%), patch closure of postinfarction ventricular septal defect(PMI-VSD) in 2(0.7%), replacement of ascending aorta in 1(0.3%) and coronary endarterectomy in 1(0.3%) patient. The mean ACC time was $96.6{\pm}35.3 $ minutes and the mean CPB time was $179.2{\pm}94.6$ minutes. Total early mortality was 8.6%, but it was 3.1% in elective operations. The most common cause of early mortality was low cardiac output syndrome in 6(2.1%) patients. The stastistically significant risk factors for early mortality were hypertension, old age($\geq$ 70 years), poor LV function(EF<40%), congestive heart failure, preoperative intraaortic balloon pump, emergency operation and chronic renal failure. The most common complication was arrhythmia in 52(17.8%) patients. The mean follow-up period was $39.0{\pm}27.0$ months. Most patients were free of symptoms during follow-up. Fourteen patients(5.8 %) had recurrent symptoms and 7 patients(2.9%) died during follow-up period. Follow-up coronary angiography was performed in 13 patients with recurrent symptoms and they were managed by surgical and medical treatment according to the coronary angiographic result. Conclusion: The operative and late results of CABG in our hospital, was acceptable. However, There should be more refinement in operative technique and postoperative management to improve the results.

Efficacy and Accuracy of Patient Specific Customize Bolus Using a 3-Dimensional Printer for Electron Beam Therapy (전자선 빔 치료 시 삼차원프린터를 이용하여 제작한 환자맞춤형 볼루스의 유용성 및 선량 정확도 평가)

  • Choi, Woo Keun;Chun, Jun Chul;Ju, Sang Gyu;Min, Byung Jun;Park, Su Yeon;Nam, Hee Rim;Hong, Chae-Seon;Kim, MinKyu;Koo, Bum Yong;Lim, Do Hoon
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.64-71
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    • 2016
  • We develop a manufacture procedure for the production of a patient specific customized bolus (PSCB) using a 3D printer (3DP). The dosimetric accuracy of the 3D-PSCB is evaluated for electron beam therapy. In order to cover the required planning target volume (PTV), we select the proper electron beam energy and the field size through initial dose calculation using a treatment planning system. The PSCB is delineated based on the initial dose distribution. The dose calculation is repeated after applying the PSCB. We iteratively fine-tune the PSCB shape until the plan quality is sufficient to meet the required clinical criteria. Then the contour data of the PSCB is transferred to an in-house conversion software through the DICOMRT protocol. This contour data is converted into the 3DP data format, STereoLithography data format and then printed using a 3DP. Two virtual patients, having concave and convex shapes, were generated with a virtual PTV and an organ at risk (OAR). Then, two corresponding electron treatment plans with and without a PSCB were generated to evaluate the dosimetric effect of the PSCB. The dosimetric characteristics and dose volume histograms for the PTV and OAR are compared in both plans. Film dosimetry is performed to verify the dosimetric accuracy of the 3D-PSCB. The calculated planar dose distribution is compared to that measured using film dosimetry taken from the beam central axis. We compare the percent depth dose curve and gamma analysis (the dose difference is 3%, and the distance to agreement is 3 mm) results. No significant difference in the PTV dose is observed in the plan with the PSCB compared to that without the PSCB. The maximum, minimum, and mean doses of the OAR in the plan with the PSCB were significantly reduced by 9.7%, 36.6%, and 28.3%, respectively, compared to those in the plan without the PSCB. By applying the PSCB, the OAR volumes receiving 90% and 80% of the prescribed dose were reduced from $14.40cm^3$ to $0.1cm^3$ and from $42.6cm^3$ to $3.7cm^3$, respectively, in comparison to that without using the PSCB. The gamma pass rates of the concave and convex plans were 95% and 98%, respectively. A new procedure of the fabrication of a PSCB is developed using a 3DP. We confirm the usefulness and dosimetric accuracy of the 3D-PSCB for the clinical use. Thus, rapidly advancing 3DP technology is able to ease and expand clinical implementation of the PSCB.

A Therapeutic Effect of Ozonated Oil on Bovine Mastitis (젖소 유방염에 대한 Ozonated oil의 치료효과)

  • Jo Sung-Nam;Liu Jianzhu;Lee Sang-Eun;Hong Min-Sung;Kim Duck-Hwan;Kim Myung-Cheol;Cho Sung-Whan;Jun Moo-Hyung
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.318-321
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    • 2005
  • Forty- nine quarters from 24 lactating cows with chronic mastitis were selected. The cows were raised on dairy farms in Gongju, Jochiwon and Yeongi in Chungnam province, and Iksan in Jeonbuk province, Korea. The 49 quarters with bovine mastitis were divided into control (7 quarters) and experimental (42 quarters) groups. The experimental quarters were assigned to experimental group A (10 quarters, somatic cell count: $50-100\times10^4/ml)$, experimental group B (14 quarters, somatic cells count: $100-300{\times}10^4/ml)$, and experimental group C (18 quarters, somatic cells count: $>300\times10^4/ml$), according to the number of the somatic cells in their milk. The quarters of control group were treated with norfloxacin ointment (10 g/tube) based on the result of sensitivity, twice a day for 3 days. The quarters or experimental groups were infused 10ml or ozonated oils twice a day for 3 days. After treatment, the milk of the control group contained non-significantly lower numbers of somatic cells and bacteria on day 7, compared with pretreatment levels. Experimental groups A, B and C had lower somatic and bacterial cells in their milk on day 7, compared with pretreatment levels. Experimental group B and C had significantly lower numbers of somatic cells in their milk ell day 7 than before treatment (p<0.01). However, no significant difference in somatic cell numbers was detected between the control alld experimental groups. It was concluded that ozone therapy with ozonated oil applied on bovine mastitis might be effective.

Recognition and attitude to functional division between physicians and pharmacists of practising physicians and pharmacists in Taegu city (대구시 개원의사와 개국약사의 의약분업에 대한 인식과 태도)

  • Lee, Moo-Sik;Yoon, Nung-Ki;Suh, Suk-Kwon;Park, Jae-Yong
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.26 no.1 s.41
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 1993
  • Mail questionnaire was administrated to 370 practising physicians and 388 pharmacists in Taegu city selected by systematic sampling to examine utilization states and opinion of pharmacy under medical care insurance programme and the attitude to the functional division between physicians and pharmacists from April to May 1992. Regarding the opinion on the outcome of drug-store under medical insurance, 71.2 percent of practicing physician answered faliure but 13.4 percent of practicing pharmacists answered failure in contrast. Fifty percent of practicing physician asserted introducing functional division between physician and pharmacist while 66.9 percent of practicing pharmacist answered drug-store under medical insurance itself is sucessful programme. Average daily numbers of preparation of medicine was 32.2 case. Percentage of utilization of drug-store under medical issurance to average daily cases of preparing of medicine was 20 percent, percentage of utilization with physician's prescription was 0.7 percent. And 58.7 percent of practicing physician experienced outside the institute prescription. Regarding the opinion on the pros and cons of enforcing functional division between physician and pharmacist, 59.2 percent of practicing physician prefered pros and 17.7 percent cons, but 38 percent of practicing pharmacist prefered pros and 45.5 percent cons. And pharmacist knew better the content of functional division between physician and pharmacist than physician. As a reason for pros of enforcing functional division between physician and pharmacist, practicing physician emphasized to prevent misuse or abuse of medicine but practicing pharmacist emphasized to display physician and pharmacist's professional ability. And as an opinion on implementation style of functional division between physician and pharmacist in pros respondents, practicing physician favored mandatory enforcement (52.3%), while practicing pharmacist favored partial incomplete functional division (81.7%). As the method of prescription if functional division between physician and pharmacist will be enforced, both practicing physician and pharmacist prefered generic name (44.0%, 89%) mostly, but physician prefered brand name (35.3%) secondly. Regarding the reason for not implementing functional division between physician and pharmacist up to date, both physician and pharmacist answered problem of business right between physician and pharmacist, followed by lack of recognition, and interest of people and lack of the govermental willness. Regarding the opinion on prior decision of condition for enforcing functional division between physician and pharmacist, practicing physician and pharmacist named uneven distribution of medical facilities and drug-store between rural and urban, inequality of physician and pharmacist manpower and the problem of manpower demand and supply mostly, and practicing physician pointed out establishing attitude of acceptance on the part of pharmacist and practicing pharmacist favored establishing attitude of acceptance on the part of physician, which was different attitudes between physician and pharmacist. Following conclusion was reached ; 1. Current drug-store under medical insurance program yield insufficient outcome, so we should consider program conversion from drug-store under medical insurance program to functional division between physician and pharmacist. 2. There were problem of business right and conflicts between physician and pharmacist at enforcing functional division between physician and pharmacist, so the goverment should search for formulating plan to resolve the problem and have neutral willness for the protection of the national health.

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The Etiologies and Initial Antimicrobial Therapy Outcomes in One Tertiary Hospital ICU-admitted Patient with Severe Community-acquired Pneumonia (국내 한 3차 병원 중환자실에 입원한 중증지역획득폐렴 환자의 원인 미생물과 경험적 항균제 치료 성적의 고찰)

  • Lee, Jae Seung;Chung, Joo Won;Koh, Yunsuck;Lim, Chae-Man;Jung, Young Joo;Oh, Youn Mok;Shim, Tae Sun;Lee, Sang Do;Kim, Woo Sung;Kim, Dong-Soon;Kim, Won Dong;Hong, Sang-Bum
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.59 no.5
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    • pp.522-529
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    • 2005
  • Background : Several national societies have published guidelines for empirical antimicrobial therapy in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP). This study investigated the etiologies of SCAP in the Asan Medical Center and assessed the relationship between the initial empirical antimicrobial regimen and 30 day mortality rate. Method : retrospective analysis was performed on patients with SCAP admitted to the ICU between March 2002 and February 2004 in the Asan Medical Center. The basic demographic data, bacteriologic study results and initial antimicrobial regimen were examined for all patients. The clinical outcomes including the ICU length of stay, the ICU mortality rate, and 30 days mortality rates were assessed by the initial antimicrobial regimen. Results : One hundred sixteen consecutive patients were admitted to the ICU (mean age 66.5 years, 81.9 % male, 30 days mortality 28.4 %). The microbiologic diagnosis was established in 58 patients (50 %). The most common pathogens were S. pneumoniae (n=12), P. aeruginosae (n=9), K. pneumonia (n=9) and S. aureus (n=8). The initial empirical antimicrobial regimens were classified as: ${\beta}$-lactam plus macrolide; ${\beta}$-lactam plus fluoroquinolone; anti-Pseudomonal ${\beta}$-lactam plus fluoroquinolone; Aminoglycoside combination regimen; ${\beta}$-lactam plus clindamycin; and ${\beta}$-lactam alone. There were no statistical significant differences in the 30-day mortality rate according to the initial antimicrobial regimen (p = 0.682). Multivariate analysis revealed that acute renal failure, acute respiratory distress syndrome and K. pneumonae were independent risk factors related to the 30 day mortality rate. Conclusion : S. pneumoniae, P. aeruginosae, K. pneumonia and S. aureus were the most common causative pathogens in patients with SCAP and K. pneumoniae was an independent risk factor for 30 day mortality. The initial antimicrobial regimen was not associated with the 30-day mortality.

Problems of Environmental Pollution (환경오염의 세계적인 경향)

  • 송인현
    • Proceedings of the KOR-BRONCHOESO Conference
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    • 1972.03a
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    • pp.3.4-5
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    • 1972
  • 생활수준이 낮은 단계에 있어서는 우선 식량에 대한 수요가 강하다. 인간의 욕구가 만족스럽게 먹는다는 것에 대하여 제일 강하게 발동하는 것이다 그러나 점차 과학기술과 산업과 경제가 발전하여 성장과정에 오르게 되고 소득수준도 향상하게 되면 시장기구를 통해서 구입 할 수 있는 개인의 물적 소비재에 대해서는 점차 충족하게 되며 식량이외에도 의복, 전기기구 및 일용생활용품, 자동차 등에 이르기까지 더욱 고차원의 소비재가 보급하게 되는 것이다. 이렇게 되며는 사람의 욕구는 사적 재물이나 물적 수요에서 점진적으로 공공재나 또는 질적 수요(주택, 생활환경 등)의 방향으로 움직이게 되는 것으로써 여기에 환경오염 또는 공해문제에 대하여 의식하게 된다. 그러나 여기에서 더욱이 문제점이 되는 것은 소득 수준의 향상 과정이란 그 자체가 환경오염의 커다란 요인이라는 점이며 자동차의 급격한 보급과 생활의 편의성을 구하여 집중되는 도시인구의 집적, 높은 소득을 보장하기 위한 생산성 높은 중화학공업의 발전 등등은 그 자체가 환경권이란 사람이 요구하는 고차원의 권리를 침해하는 직접적인 요인이 된다는 것이다. 이와 같은 환경오염이나 공해문제에 대한 세계적인 논의는 이미 시작된 지 오래이지만 현재는 우리의 건강보호를 위해서나 생활환경의 보전을 위해서라는 점에서는 그치는 것이 아니고, 더욱 넓혀서 자연의 보호, 자원의 보호라는 견지로 확대되고 있다. 이와 같은 세계적인 확대된 이해와 이에 대한 대책강구의 제안은 1968년 국제연합의 경제사회이사회에서 스웨덴 정부대표에 의하여 제시되었으며 1969년의 우- 탄트 사무총장의 인간환경에 관한 보고서, 1970년 Nixon 미대통령의 연두일반교서 그리고 1972년 5월 6일 스웨덴의 스톡홀롬에서 개최되는 인간환경회의의 주제 등을 통해서 알 수 있고, 종래의 공해나 생활환경의 오염문제라는 좁은 개념에서가 아니고 인간환경전체의 문제로 다루고 있는 것이다. 즉 환경개발(도시, 산업, 지역개발에 수반된 문제), 환경오염(인위적 행위에 의하여 환경의 대인간조건이 악화하는 문제) 자연ㆍ자원의 보호관리(지하, 해양자원, 동식물, 풍경경치의 문제)란 3개 측면에서 다루고 있는 것이다. 환경오염이란 문제를 중 심하여 보면 환경을 구성하는 기본적인 요소로서 대기, 물, 토지 또는 지각. 그리고 공간의 사대요소로 집약하여 생각할 수 있음으로 이 4요소의 오염이 문제가 되는 것이다. 대기의 오염은 환경의 오염중 가장 널리 알려진, 또 가장 오랜 역사를 가진 오염의 문제로써 이에 속하는 오염인자는 분진, 매연, 유해가스(유황산화물, 불화수소, 염화수소, 질소산화물, 일산 화염소 등) 등 대기의 1차 오염과 1차 존재한 물질이 자외선의 작용으로 변화발생 하는 오존, PAN등 광화학물질이 형성되는 2차적인 오염을 들 수 있다. 기외 카도미움, 연등 유해중금속이나 방사선물질이 대기로부터 토지를 오염시켜서 토지에 서식하는 생물의 오염을 야기케 한다는 점등이 명백하여지고 있으며 대기의 오염은 이런 오염물질이 대기중에서 이동하여 강우에 의한 침강물질의 변화를 일으키게 되며 소위 광역오염문제를 발생케하며 동시에 토지의 토질저하등을 가져오게 한다. 물의 오염은 크게 내육수의 오염과 해양의 오염의 양면으로 나누어 볼 수 있다. 하천의 오염을 방지하고 하천을 보호하기 위한 움직임 역시 환경오염의 역사상 오래된 문제이며 시초에는 인분뇨와의 연결에서 오는 세균에 의한 오염이나 양수 기타 일반하수와의 연결에서 오는 오염에 대비하는 것부터 시작하였지만 근래에는 산업공장폐수에 의한 각종 화학적유해물질과 염료 그리고 석유화학의 발달에 의한 폐유등으로 인한 수질오탁문제가 점차 크게 대두되고 있다. 이것은 측 오염이란 시초에 우리에게 주는 불쾌감이 크므로 이것을 피하자는 것부터 시작하여 인간의 건강을 지키고 각종 사용수를 보존하자는 용수보존으로 그리고 이제는 건강과 용수보존뿐만 아니라 이것이 농림 수산물에 대한 큰 피해를 주게됨으로써 오는 자연환경의 생태계보전의 문제로 확대전환하고 있는 것이다. ?간 특히 해양오염에 대한 문제는 국지적인 것에만 끝이는 것이 아니고 전세계의 해양에 곧 연결되는 것이므로 세계각국의 공통관심사로 등장케 되었으며 이것은 특히 폐유가 유류수송 도중에 해양에 투기되는 유류에 의한 해양의 유막성형에서 오는 기상의 변화와 물피해등이 막심함으로 심각화 되고 있다. 각국이 자국의 해안과 해양을 보호하기 위하여 조치를 서두르고 있는 현시점에서 볼 때에는 이는 국제문제화하고 있으며 세계적인 국제적 협력과 협조의 필요성이 강조되는 좋은 예라 하겠다. 토양의 오염에 있어서는 대기나 수질의 오염이 구국적으로 토양과 관련되고 토양으로 환원되는 것이지만 근래에 많이 보급사용되는 농약과 화학비료의 문제는 토양자체의 오염에만 그치는 것이 아니고 농작물을 식품으로 하여 섭취함으로써 발생되는 인체나 기타생물체의 피해를 고려할 때 더욱 중요한 것이며, 또 토질의 저하를 가져오게 하여 농림생산에 미치는 영향이 적지 않을 것이다. 지반강하는 지각 에 주는 인공적 영향의 대표적인 것으로써 지하수나 지하 천연가스를 채취이용하기 위하여 파들어 감으로써 지반이 침하 하는 것이며 건축물에 대한 영향 특히 풍수해시의 재해를 크게 할 우려가 있는 것이다. 공간에 있어서의 환경오염에는 소음, 진동, 광선, 악취 등이 있다. 이들은 특수한 작업환경의 경우를 제외하고는 건강에 직접적인 큰 피해를 준다고 생각할 수 없으나 소음, 진동, 관선, 악취 등은 일반 일상시민생활에 불쾌나 불안을 줌으로써 안정된 생활을 방해하는 요인이 되는 것이다. 공간의 오염물로써 새로운 주목을 끌게된 것은 도시산업폐기물로써 이들은 대기나 물 또는 토지를 오염시킬 뿐만 아니라 공간을 점령함으로써 도시의 미관이나 기능을 손상케 하는 것이다. 즉 노배폐차의 잔해, 냉장고등고형폐기물등의 재생불가능한 것이나 비니루등 합성물질로 된 용기나 포장 등으로 연소분해 되지 않은 내구소비재가 이에 해당하는 것으로 이는 maker의 양식에 호소하여 그 책임 하에 해결되어야 할 문제로 본다. 이렇듯 환경오염은 각양각색으로 그 오염물질의 주요 발생원인 산업장이나 기타 기관에서의 발생요인을 살펴보며는 다음과 같은 것으로 요약할 수 있다. A. 제도적 요인 1. 관리체재의 미비 2. 관리법규의 미비 3. 책임소재의 불명확 B. 자재적 요인 1. 사용자재의 선택부적 2. 개량대책급 연구의 미흡 C. 기술적 요인 1. 시설의 설계불량, 공정의 결함 2. 시설의 점검, 보전의 불충분 3. 도출물의 취급에 대한 검사부족 4. 발생방지 시설의 미설치, 결함 D. 교육적 요인 1. 오염물질 방제지식의 결여 2. 법규의 오해, 미숙지 E. 경제적 요인 1. 자금부족 2. 융자상의 문제 3. 경제성의 문제 F. 정신적 요인 1. 사회적 도의심의 결여(이기주의) 2. 태만 3. 무지, 무관심 등이다. 따라서 환경오염의 방지란 상기한 문제의 해결에 기대하지 않을 수 없으나 이를 해결하기 위하여는 국내적 국제적 상호협조에 의한 사회각층의 총력적 대책이 시급한 것이다. 이와 같은 환경오염이 단속된다 하며는 미구에 인류의 건강은 물론 그 존립마저 기대하기 어려울 것이며, 현재는 점진적으로 급성피해에 대하여는 그 흥미가 집중되어 그 대비책도 많이 논의되고 있지만 미량의 단속접촉에 의한 만성축적에 관한 문제나 이와 같은 환경오염이 앞으로 태어날 신생률에 대한 영향이나 유전정보에 관한 연구는 장차에 대비하는 문제로써 중요한 것이라 생각된다. 기외에 우려되는 점은 오염방지책을 적극 추진함으로써 올 수 있는 파생적인 문제이다. 즉 오염을 방지하기 위하여 생산기업체가 투자를 하게 되며는 그만큼 생산원가가 상승할 것이며 소비가격도 오를 것이다. 반면 이런 시책에 뒤떨어진 후진국의 값싼 생산국은 자연 수입이 억제 당할 것이며, 이렇게되면 후진국은 무역경쟁에서 큰 상처를 입게될 것이고 뿐만 아니라 선진국에 필요한 오염물질의 발생이 높은 생산기기를 자연후진국에 양도하게 될 것임으로 후진국의 환경오염은 배가할 우려가 있는 것이다. 또 해양오염을 방지할 목적에서와 같이 자국의 해안보호를 위하여 마련된 법의 규제는 타국의 선박운항에 많은 제약을 가하게 될 것이며 이것 역시 시설이 미약한 약소후진국의 선박에 크게 영향을 미치게 될 것임으로 교통, 해운, 무역등을 통한 약소후진국의 경제성장에 제동을 거는 것이 될 것이다. 이렇듯 환경오염의 문제는 환경자체에 대해서만 아니라 부산물적으로 특히 후진국에는 의외 문제를 던져주게 되는 것임으로 환경오염에 대해서는 물론, 전술한 바와 같이 인간환경전체의 문제로써 Nixon 대통령이 말한 결의와 창의와 그리고 자금을 가지고 과감하게 대처해 나가야 할 것이다.

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Development of a Traffic Accident Prediction Model and Determination of the Risk Level at Signalized Intersection (신호교차로에서의 사고예측모형개발 및 위험수준결정 연구)

  • 홍정열;도철웅
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.155-166
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    • 2002
  • Since 1990s. there has been an increasing number of traffic accidents at intersection. which requires more urgent measures to insure safety on intersection. This study set out to analyze the road conditions, traffic conditions and traffic operation conditions on signalized intersection. to identify the elements that would impose obstructions in safety, and to develop a traffic accident prediction model to evaluate the safety of an intersection using the cop relation between the elements and an accident. In addition, the focus was made on suggesting appropriate traffic safety policies by dealing with the danger elements in advance and on enhancing the safety on the intersection in developing a traffic accident prediction model fir a signalized intersection. The data for the study was collected at an intersection located in Wonju city from January to December 2001. It consisted of the number of accidents, the road conditions, the traffic conditions, and the traffic operation conditions at the intersection. The collected data was first statistically analyzed and then the results identified the elements that had close correlations with accidents. They included the area pattern, the use of land, the bus stopping activities, the parking and stopping activities on the road, the total volume, the turning volume, the number of lanes, the width of the road, the intersection area, the cycle, the sight distance, and the turning radius. These elements were used in the second correlation analysis. The significant level was 95% or higher in all of them. There were few correlations between independent variables. The variables that affected the accident rate were the number of lanes, the turning radius, the sight distance and the cycle, which were used to develop a traffic accident prediction model formula considering their distribution. The model formula was compared with a general linear regression model in accuracy. In addition, the statistics of domestic accidents were investigated to analyze the distribution of the accidents and to classify intersections according to the risk level. Finally, the results were applied to the Spearman-rank correlation coefficient to see if the model was appropriate. As a result, the coefficient of determination was highly significant with the value of 0.985 and the ranks among the intersections according to the risk level were appropriate too. The actual number of accidents and the predicted ones were compared in terms of the risk level and they were about the same in the risk level for 80% of the intersections.