• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.11-30
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• 2017

In addition to recession, world shipping companies are undergoing restructuring due to excess of "World Container Cargo volume" per "World Containership capacity" (in TEU terms). This excess is attributed to the absence of standard index of calculating the "World Containership capacity" (in TEU terms) for "World Container Cargo volume." The purpose of this study is to develop indices and terms: "World Containership capacity (in TEU terms) Standards Index; WCSI" and "World Containership capacity (in TEU terms) Expected Index; WCEI." The comparison between "WCSI" and "WCEI" made in this study is presented below. WCSI (Average voyage 9.3) > WCEI Excess shipping (in TEU terms) WCSI (Average voyage 9.3) = WCEI Optimum shipping (in TEU terms) WCSI (Average voyage 9.3) < WCEI Short shipping (in TEU terms) WCSI=HRCI $1000{\pm}150$ Value approx. The study shows that it is possible to predict "optimal supply of the world's containership capacity" (in TEU terms), "excess or shortage of shipping" (in TEU terms), "order time of container-ship capacity building" (in TEU terms), "order quantity of containership capacity" (in TEU terms), and "stable of World Shipping Companies" by "WCSI" and "WCEI." The development of "WCSI" and "WCEI" aim to help overcome the crisis of recession by establishing effective business strategies for world shipping companies and their supporting companies.

• 해운
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• no.12 s.23
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• pp.43-43
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• 2005

• 해운
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• no.4 s.27
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• pp.40-40
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• 2006

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.509-515
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• 2004

The aim of this paper is to forecast passenger numbers and freight volumes in 2005 and it is proposed optimal tonnage of passenger ship. The forecasting of passenger numbers and freight volumes is important problem in order to determine optimal tonnage of passenger ship, port plan and development. In this paper, the forecasting of passenger numbers and freight volumes are performed by the method of neural network using back-propagation learning algorithm. And this paper compares the forecasting performance of neural networks with moving average method and exponential smooth method As the result of analysis. The forecasting of passenger numbers and freight volumes is that the neural networks performed better than moving average method and exponential smoothing method on the basis of MSE(mean square error) and MAE(mean absolute error).

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.48 no.1
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• pp.62-77
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• 2024

In the maritime shipping industry, imbalance between supply and demand has persistently increased, leading to the utilization of blank sailings by major shipping companies worldwide as a key means of flexibly adjusting vessel capacity in response to shipping market conditions. Traditionally, blank sailings have been frequently implemented around the Chinese New Year period. However, due to unique circumstances such as the global pandemic starting in 2020 and trade tensions between the United States and China, shipping companies have recently conducted larger-scale blank sailings compared to the past. As blank sailings directly impact freight transport delays, they can have negative repercussions from perspectives of both businesses and consumers. Therefore, this study employed Poisson regression models and negative binomial regression models to analyze the influence of maritime freight rate determinants on shipping companies' decisions regarding blank sailings, aiming to proactively address potential consequences. Results of the analysis indicated that, in Poisson regression analysis for 2M, significant variables included global container shipping volume, container vessel capacity, container ship scrapping volume, container ship newbuilding index, and OECD inflation. In negative binomial regression analysis, ocean alliance showed significance with global container shipping volume and container ship order volume, the alliance with container ship capacity and interest rates, non-alliance with international oil prices, global supply chain pressure index, container ship capacity, OECD inflation, and total alliance with container ship capacity and interest rates.

• 해운
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• s.97
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• pp.11-24
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• 2013

저조한 해운시황과 고유가가 지속되고 이들 변수의 변동성이 커지면서 두 변수가 해운업체의 영업수익성에 미치는 영향도 커지고 있다. 금융위기 이후 급감한 해운 수요는 유럽 재정위기가 겹치며 쉽사리 증가하지 못하고 있는 반면, 호황기에 발주된 선박들이 대거 인도되어 선복량 공급은 꾸준히 증가하면서 선복량 수급 불균형이 시황 회복의 발목을 잡고 있다. 또한, 해운 운임과 유가의 변동성 확대는 해운시황 침체와 함께 불확실성을 증대시켰고, 그에 따라 해운업체 영업실적의 불확실성도 확대되었다. 뿐만 아니라 이들 변수의 움직임에 의해 영업수익성이 좌우되는 모습을 보이고 있다. 이에 해운 운임 및 연료유 가격과 해운업체 영업수익성의 상관관계를 분석적 관점에서 살며보고 이를 바탕으로 2013년 해운업체의 실적에 대해 전망해 보는 동시에 유동성 상황을 점검해 보았다. 다음은 한국기업평가에서 발표한 "해운업계 실적 전망과 유동성 점검"의 주요 내용을 요약 정리한 것이다.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.123-144
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• 2011

This study used a non-parametric linear program, Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) to compare the efficiency of Korean and global container shipping companies from 2005 to 2009. The sample shipping companies were 7 Korean container shipping companies and 11 global container shipping companies. The main objective of our research is to compare their efficiency, as well as the changes in efficiency periodically according to the types of the container shipping companies. According to the periodical analysis, both Korean and Global container shipping companies showed a steady decrease in efficiency. The study showed that Korean container shipping companies have greater efficiency than their global rivals.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.115-136
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• 2020

This study aims to analyze the impact of China's iron ore imports and exports on the tramper freight rate of China. The import volume of iron ore in China, the export volume of steel products in China, and exogenous variables were used as independent variables. The dependent variables were BDI, BCI, C5, C10, C14, BSI, S2, and S3. Correlation analysis and regression analysis were conducted. The correlation analysis showed that China's iron ore imports were not related to the remaining BDI, BCI, BSI, C5, C10, S2, and S3, except for the C14 index. However, there was a positive correlation between the ship's space and international oil prices, and it was not related to China's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). The export volume of steel products was negatively correlated with BDI, BCI, BSI, C5, C10, C14, S2, S3, and international oil prices, and was not related to iron ore imports, ship space, and China's PMI. In the verification of the hypothesis between China's iron ore imports and exogenous variables, China's PMI was rejected within the hypothesis. However, the hypothesis on international oil prices and ship space was adopted. In the verification of the hypothesis between China's steel export volume and exogenous variables, the hypothesis on BDI and the S3 index was adopted, and the hypothesis on BSI and S2 was rejected. In the analysis results of this study, the ship space and oil prices were adopted in all the hypothesis results. Domestic companies participating in the tramper shipping market will need to be prepared through continuous monitoring of related indicators.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.41-57
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• 2023

The drybulk shipping market has high freight rate volatility in the chartering market and various and complex factors affecting the market. In the unstable economic situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the BDI plunged due to a decrease in trade volume, but turned from the end of 2020 and maintained a booming period until the end of 2022. The main reason for the market change is the decrease in the available fleet that can actually be operated for cargo transport due to port congestion by the COVID-19 pandemic, regardless of the fleet and trade volume volatility that have affected the drybulk shipping market in the past. A decrease in the actual usable fleet due to vessel waiting at port by congestion led to freight increase, and the freight increase in charting market led to an increase in second-hand ship and new-building ship price in long-term equilibrium relationship. In the past, the drybulk shipping market was determined by the volatility of fleet and trade volume. but, in the future, available fleet volume volatility by pandemics, environmental regulations and climate will be the important factors affecting BDI. To response to the IMO carbon emission reduction in 2023, it is expected that ship speed will be slowed down and more ships are expected to be needed to transport the same trade volume. This slowdown is expected to have an impact on drybulk shipping market, such as a increase in freight and second-hand ship and new-building ship price due to a decrease in available fleet volume.

• 해운
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• no.1 s.24
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• pp.30-32
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• 2006

유럽집행위원회(EC)는 최근 해운동맹에의 독점금지법(경쟁법) 포괄적용 제외를 규정한 규칙(EC 이사회규칙 4056-86)의 폐지를 제안, 세계해운업계의 이목이 집중되고 있다. 이같은 제안이 현실화될 경우, 장기적으로 선복량 과잉현상이 해소될 것으로 예상되나, 운임의 하락압력이 더욱 강해져 해운선사들의 채산성이 악화될 것으로 분석되고 있다. 다음은 EC 내에서 일고있는 해운동맹에 대한 EU 경쟁법 예외적용 폐지 움직임을 정리한 것이다.(편집자 주)