• Title/Summary/Keyword: 상승률

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Improvement of safety for floods according to analysis of climate change scenario and flood defense measurement (기후변화 시나리오 및 치수 대책 변화 분석에 따른 치수안전도 개선)

  • Kim, Myojeong;Kim, Gwangseob
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.343-343
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    • 2017
  • 기후변화로 인하여 평균 기온 및 강수량이 증가하고 이에 따라 홍수의 발생 빈도가 증가한다. 기후변화에 따른 미래 예측은 기후변화 시나리오로 분석하고 있으며, 현재 사용하는 기후변화 시나리오는 2013년에 발간된 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 5차 평가보고서(AR5)에서 2007년에 발간된 IPCC 4차 평가보고서(AR4)에 사용한 SRES(Special Report on Emission Scenario) 온실가스 시나리오를 대신하여 대표농도 경로 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways)를 사용한다. 기후변화 시나리오에 따라 기온 상승률 및 강수량의 증가량, 극한 강우사상의 발생 빈도 및 발생 정도가 다르게 결정되며, 이에 따라 IPCC에서 제시하는 기후변화 취약성 평가 이론의 민감도 지수가 시나리오에 따라 증가하는 정도가 다르게 산정된다. 민감도 지수의 증가는 홍수위험지수의 증가로 이어지며, 이에 따라 치수대책 변화를 분석하여 치수안전도 개선 및 수재해에 의한 위험을 대비할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 연평균강수량, 일최대강수량과 같은 극치 강수량과 치수 대책 변화 및 치수대책변수의 현황, 치수대책변수의 개선가능범위 분석을 통한 치수안전도 개선 효과를 분석하였다.

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Changes in Real Exchange Rate and Business Fluctuations: A Comparative Study of Korea and Japan (실질환율변동의 경기변동효과: 한국과 일본의 비교연구)

  • Kwak, Tae Woon
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.309-330
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    • 2009
  • This paper analyzes comparatively the effects of changes in real effective exchange rates on the business fluctuations of the cases of Korea and Japan employing structural vector auto-regression(S-VAR) model which uses quarterly data for the five variables of real effective exchange rates, GDP gap, real interest rates, oil prices, inflation rates for the period of 1980-2006. The paper employes impulse-response analysis and variance decompositions. The paper finds that real exchange rate depreciations are contractionay for the case of Korea while they are expansionary for the case of Japan. These results are consistent with the prevailing empirical results that real exchange rate depreciations are contractionary for developing countries while expansionary for advanced countries.

A Study on Industries's Leading at the Stock Market in Korea - Gradual Diffusion of Information and Cross-Asset Return Predictability- (산업의 주식시장 선행성에 관한 실증분석 - 자산간 수익률 예측 가능성 -)

  • Kim Jong-Kwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.355-380
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    • 2004
  • I test the hypothesis that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability in Korea. Using thirty-six industry portfolios and the broad market index as our test assets, I establish several key results. First, a number of industries such as semiconductor, electronics, metal, and petroleum lead the stock market by up to one month. In contrast, the market, which is widely followed, only leads a few industries. Importantly, an industry's ability to lead the market is correlated with its propensity to forecast various indicators of economic activity such as industrial production growth. Consistent with our hypothesis, these findings indicate that the market reacts with a delay to information in industry returns about its fundamentals because information diffuses only gradually across asset markets. Traditional theories of asset pricing assume that investors have unlimited information-processing capacity. However, this assumption does not hold for many traders, even the most sophisticated ones. Many economists recognize that investors are better characterized as being only boundedly rational(see Shiller(2000), Sims(2201)). Even from casual observation, few traders can pay attention to all sources of information much less understand their impact on the prices of assets that they trade. Indeed, a large literature in psychology documents the extent to which even attention is a precious cognitive resource(see, eg., Kahneman(1973), Nisbett and Ross(1980), Fiske and Taylor(1991)). A number of papers have explored the implications of limited information- processing capacity for asset prices. I will review this literature in Section II. For instance, Merton(1987) develops a static model of multiple stocks in which investors only have information about a limited number of stocks and only trade those that they have information about. Related models of limited market participation include brennan(1975) and Allen and Gale(1994). As a result, stocks that are less recognized by investors have a smaller investor base(neglected stocks) and trade at a greater discount because of limited risk sharing. More recently, Hong and Stein(1999) develop a dynamic model of a single asset in which information gradually diffuses across the investment public and investors are unable to perform the rational expectations trick of extracting information from prices. Hong and Stein(1999). My hypothesis is that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability. This hypothesis relies on two key assumptions. The first is that valuable information that originates in one asset reaches investors in other markets only with a lag, i.e. news travels slowly across markets. The second assumption is that because of limited information-processing capacity, many (though not necessarily all) investors may not pay attention or be able to extract the information from the asset prices of markets that they do not participate in. These two assumptions taken together leads to cross-asset return predictability. My hypothesis would appear to be a very plausible one for a few reasons. To begin with, as pointed out by Merton(1987) and the subsequent literature on segmented markets and limited market participation, few investors trade all assets. Put another way, limited participation is a pervasive feature of financial markets. Indeed, even among equity money managers, there is specialization along industries such as sector or market timing funds. Some reasons for this limited market participation include tax, regulatory or liquidity constraints. More plausibly, investors have to specialize because they have their hands full trying to understand the markets that they do participate in

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An Empirical Study on the Effects of Fertility Rate and Female Labor Supply on Economic Potential (출산율 및 여성고용 제고 정책이 성장잠재력에 미치는 영향)

  • Ryu, Deock-Hyun
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.27-54
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of policy boosting fertility and labor participation rate on potential GDP growth rate. To do this, we employ a growth accounting approach, which decomposes per capita GDP into two parts. The first one is the change of dependency ratio and the other is the change of labor input. The labor input is again decomposed into the qualitative and quantitative parts. The quantitative part considers the change of labor participation rate and working time. The qualitative aspects is based on the trend of productivity of labor. From the scenarios of NSO(National Statistics Office), the effect of the fertility-raising policy on per capita potential GDP growth rate is calculated and projected to the year of 2050. We also forecast the policy effect inducing high labor participating rate of female labor and beyond 55-year old labor. The baseline results show that the per capita GDP growth rate will show mid 4% to the year of 2010, gradually declining to 3.94% by 2020, 3.03% by 2030, 2.41% by 2040. The high fertility rate scenario will not have effects on the potential growth by 2030, but show 0.10%p higher per capita GDP growth rate than that of baseline scenario result. By the high female labor participation policy, the per capita GDP growth rate will reach 0.04%p higher per capita GDP growth rate than that of baseline scenario. Based on the results of this paper, we conclude that the quantitative labor input cannot solely account for the trend decline of potential GDP, and the qualitative aspect, like labor productivity, is much more important element to sustain and boots the economic growth.

Rifle performance improvement cost estimation through Relation between the accuracy and Engagement results Using the Engagement class simulation model (명중률과 교전결과의 상관관계분석을 통한 개인화기 성능개선비용 추정 : 교전급 분석모델을 중심으로)

  • TaeKyeom Kim
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.289-295
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    • 2024
  • This study analyzes the correlation between the accracy of rifle and the result of engagement. And estimates the improvement cost of the rifle accordingly. For this experiment, an engagement class simulation model(AWAM: Army Weapon Effectiveness Analysis Model) was used. We also selected the rifle, which is a portable weapon for the experiment. Prior to this experiment, we conducted a reliability test(VV&A: Verification, Validation and Accreditation) on the model. The VV&A process is mainly done during the development of the DM&S model, which is also necessary for the operation of the M&S. We confirmed the need for VV&A during the experiment and obtained reliable experimental results using the corrected values. In the Accuracy Experiment we found that the 20% improvement is the most effective. And we were able to estimate the cost of acquiring a rifle with a 20% higher accuracy. The cost was estimated by simple regression analysis based on the price of the current rifle. Through this study, we could know the impact of the accuracy of rifle on the experimental results and estimate the cost of improved rifle.

Constitutive Model of Laterally Confined High Strength Concrete (횡구속된 고강도 콘크리트의 구성모델)

  • Yun, Sung-Hwan;Kang, Yoon-Sig;Park, Tae-Hyo
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.481-488
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    • 2010
  • Since existing constitutive models developed for confined normal strength concrete overestimate ductility when they are applied to confined high strength concrete, these models cannot be directly applied to confined high strength concrete. In an effort to solve this problem, an accurate stress-strain relationship of the hihg strength concrete needs to be formulated by examining the confinement effects due to increase of the concrete strength. In this study, a constitutive model is developed to express the stress-strain relationship of confined high strength concrete by carrying out regression analysis of the main parameters affection strength and ductile behavior of reinforced high strength concrete columns. Twenty-five test specimens were chosen from the reported experimental studies in the literature. The experimental results of stress-strain relationships of show a good agreement with results of the stress-strain relationships of suggested high strength concrete, covering a strength range between 60 and 124 MPa.

Analysis of Correlation Between Cohesion and Item Difficulty in English Reading Section of CSAT (수학능력시험 영어 읽기 지문의 응집성과 문항 난이도 간의 상관관계 분석)

  • Hwang, Leesu;Lee, Je-Young
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.344-350
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the cohesion-related text factors that affected the correct answer rate of the English reading section in the Korean CSAT. To this end, reading passages of the 2014-2018 CSAT and CSAT mock test were collected and analyzed in terms of cohesion. And then, correlation analysis was implemented between the results regarding cohesion and item difficulty. The conclusions were as follows. First, the correct answer rate tended to increase as the linguistic burden of learners was reduced, when specific arguments between sentences were repeated. Second, there was no statistically significant correlation between the 8 sub-area of latent semantic analysis and the correct answer rate. Finally, the pedagogical implications of this study and suggestions for further study were discussed.

제한적 열풍처리에 따른 조생 감귤의 저장중 품질특성 변화

  • 홍석인;이현희;이주원;김동만
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Postharvest Science and Technology of Agricultural Products Conference
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    • 2003.04a
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    • pp.138-139
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    • 2003
  • 감귤의 수확후 저장, 유통과정에서 부패 억제 및 약제 후숙처리 대체 효과를 얻기 위하여 환경친화적 방법으로서 제한적 열처리 기술의 적용 가능성을 확인하고자, 제주 서귀포산 조생종 온주 감귤의 열풍(hot air)처리에 따른 저장중 품질특성 변화를 살펴보았다. 상처가 없는 일정한 크기(약 120 g 내외)의 건전 과실을 선별한 후, 45$^{\circ}C$에서 2, 4, 6시간 동안 열풍을 가한 다음 5$^{\circ}C$에서 2시간 냉각하였다. 충분히 냉각시킨 과실을 통기성 천공 LDPE 필름에 포장하여 5$^{\circ}C$에서 3주, 18$^{\circ}C$에서 1 주간 저장하면서 생리적, 이화학적, 관능적 특성변화를 측정하였다. 열풍처리 직후 초기 호흡률은 처리구 모두 무처리구와 비교하여 높았으나 처리시간과는 유의적 상관성이 없었고, 저장중 처리구 감귤의 호흡률은 감소하여 21일째는 무처리구와 유사한 수준을 나타내었다. 과실내 기체조성은 처리구간에 차이를 보이지 않았으나 저장 21일부터는 저장온도 상승에 따라 $O_2$는 다소 감소하고 $CO_2$는 증가하는 양상을 보였다. 또한 과즙의 pH, 산도, 당 함량은 열처리에 의해 거의 영향을 받지 않았으며, 과실의 생체 중량감소율과 경도에서도 처리구간의 유의적인 차이를 구분할 수 없었다. 과피 표면색은 저장중 초기에 비해 다소 붉은 색으로 변하였으나, 6시간 처리구에서는 비교적 자은 노란색을 유지하였다. 한편 부패과 발생률에 있어서는 4시간 처리구가 축부병 등에 의한 짓무름 현상과 곰팡이 발생정도, 검은 썩음병에 따른 흑변 정도에서 저장중 가장 낮은 수준을 나타내었다. 그러나 관능적 평가에서는 열풍처리구와 무처리구 사이에서의 유의적인 차이를 발견할 수 없었다. 결과적으로 45$^{\circ}C$, 4시간이상의 제한적 열풍처리는 조생종 온주 감귤의 저장중 부패과 발생률을 현저히 감소시킴으로서 수확후 품질유지에 효과적인 열처리 조건임을 확인할 수 있었다.

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Late Holocene Sedimentation Rates from Core Sediments of the Western Part of the East Sea, Korea (한국 동해 서측해역에서 채취한 시추 퇴적물의 후기 현세 퇴적률 연구)

  • 박병권;한상준
    • 한국해양학회지
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.382-389
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    • 1995
  • This study intended to investigate the sedimentation rates of core sediments of the western part of the East Sea using Accelerator Mass Spectrometer (AMS) C-age on the planktonic foraminifera or acid-ex-tracted residue, base-soluble and base-extracted residue fractions. On the basis of the depth-age correlations, the sedimentation rates during the late Holocene period of Cores HP-10, HP-3, 94-9 and 92-3 were 30 cm/kyr, 10 cm/kyr, 11 cm/kyr and 112 cm/kyr, respectively. The sedimentation rates of the westem part of the East Sea, however, seems to be ranged from 11 cm/kyr to 30 cm/kyr, because the rates of the only two cores (Cores HP-10 and 94-9) which were dated at more than three depths are considered to be more reliable. The rates in each core sediment showed good linear relationship with the sample depth, suggesting that the sea-level rise had been finished nearly during the early Holocene period and the general depositional environments had been lasted rather constant during the late Holocene period.

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Hydration Heat and Strength Characteristics of Cement Mortar with Phase Change Materials(PCMs) (상전이물질을 혼입한 시멘트 모르타르의 수화발열 및 강도 특성 평가)

  • Jang, Seok-Joon;Kim, Byung-Seon;Kim, Sun-Woong;Park, Wan-Shin;Yun, Hyun-Do
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.665-672
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    • 2016
  • This study is conducted to investigate the effect of phase change materials (PCM) on hydration heat and strength characteristics of cement mortar. Two types of Barium and Strontium-based PCMs were used in this study and the addition ratio of each PCM to the cement mortar ranged from 1% to 5% by cement weight. Flow test, semi-adiabatic temperature rise test, compressive strength and flexural strength test were carried out to examine the PCM effect on heat and mechanical properties of cement mortar. Test results indicated that PCMs used in this study were effective to control hydration heat of cement mortar, and Barium-based PCM slightly reduce flow value. The compressive and flexural strength of cement mortar with PCM decreased with increasing the adding mount of PCM. The prediction model for compressive strength of cement mortar with different addition levels of PCMs are suggested in this study.