• Title/Summary/Keyword: 사후오차평가

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Who Gets Government SME R&D Subsidy? Application of Gradient Boosting Model (Gradient Boosting 모형을 이용한 중소기업 R&D 지원금 결정요인 분석)

  • Kang, Sung Won;Kang, HeeChan
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.77-109
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we build a gradient Boosting model to predict government SME R&D subsidy, select features of high importance, and measure the impact of each features to the predicted subsidy using PDP and SHAP value. Unlike previous empirical researches, we focus on the effect of the R&D subsidy distribution pattern to the incentive of the firms participating subsidy competition. We used the firm data constructed by KISTEP linking government R&D subsidy record with financial statements provided by NICE, and applied a Gradient Boosting model to predict R&D subsidy. We found that firms with higher R&D performance and larger R&D investment tend to have higher R&D subsidies, but firms with higher operation profit or total asset turnover rate tend to have lower R&D subsidies. Our results suggest that current government R&D subsidy distribution pattern provides incentive to improve R&D project performance, but not business performance.

Automatic Segmentation of Renal Parenchyma using Graph-cuts with Shape Constraint based on Multi-probabilistic Atlas in Abdominal CT Images (복부 컴퓨터 단층촬영영상에서 다중 확률 아틀라스 기반 형상제한 그래프-컷을 사용한 신실질 자동 분할)

  • Lee, Jaeseon;Hong, Helen;Rha, Koon Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Computer Graphics Society
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, we propose an automatic segmentation method of renal parenchyma on abdominal CT image using graph-cuts with shape constraint based on multi-probabilistic atlas. The proposed method consists of following three steps. First, to use the various shape information of renal parenchyma, multi-probabilistic atlas is generated by cortex-based similarity registration. Second, initial seeds for graph-cuts are extracted by maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation and renal parenchyma is segmented by graph-cuts with shape constraint. Third, to reduce alignment error of probabilistic atlas and increase segmentation accuracy, registration and segmentation are iteratively performed. To evaluate the performance of proposed method, qualitative and quantitative evaluation are performed. Experimental results show that the proposed method avoids a leakage into neighbor regions with similar intensity of renal parenchyma and shows improved segmentation accuracy.

Impact of Heterogeneous Dispersion Parameter on the Expected Crash Frequency (이질적 과분산계수가 기대 교통사고건수 추정에 미치는 영향)

  • Shin, Kangwon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.9
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    • pp.5585-5593
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    • 2014
  • This study tested the hypothesis that the significance of the heterogeneous dispersion parameter in safety performance function (SPF) used to estimate the expected crashes is affected by the endogenous heterogeneous prior distributions, and analyzed the impacts of the mis-specified dispersion parameter on the evaluation results for traffic safety countermeasures. In particular, this study simulated the Poisson means based on the heterogeneous dispersion parameters and estimated the SPFs using both the negative binomial (NB) model and the heterogeneous negative binomial (HNB) model for analyzing the impacts of the model mis-specification on the mean and dispersion functions in SPF. In addition, this study analyzed the characteristics of errors in the crash reduction factors (CRFs) obtained when the two models are used to estimate the posterior means and variances, which are essentially estimated through the estimated hyper-parameters in the heterogeneous prior distributions. The simulation study results showed that a mis-estimation on the heterogeneous dispersion parameters through the NB model does not affect the coefficient of the mean functions, but the variances of the prior distribution are seriously mis-estimated when the NB model is used to develop SPFs without considering the heterogeneity in dispersion. Consequently, when the NB model is used erroneously to estimate the prior distributions with heterogeneous dispersion parameters, the mis-estimated posterior mean can produce large errors in CRFs up to 120%.

Evaluation of e-learning in the anatomical education : The correlation between utilization frequency, satisfaction and academic achievement (해부학 가상강의에 따른 가상강의실 활용도, 만족도, 학업성취도 간의 상관관계)

  • Kim, Kwang-Hwan;Kim, Jee-Hee;Park, Jeong-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the KAIS Fall Conference
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    • 2010.11b
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    • pp.901-903
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구에서는 2007-2009년에 간호학과 및 스포츠과학부 해부학 강의에 있어 가상강의를 실시하였고 이에 따른 학생들의 가상강의 컨텐츠의 만족도와 가상강의실 활용빈도에 따른 학업성취도와의 상관관계를 분석하였다. 2007-2009학년도 1학기 해부학 강의를 가상강의 방식으로 수강한 2개 학과 231명을 대상으로 강의 종료 후 가상강의실 게시판 및 컨텐츠 활용 빈도, 개별 설문조사, 학기말 성적을 확보하여 상호간의 상관관계를 분석하였다. 각 학과별 일반 특성을 보기 위하여 연속 변수의 경우 평균과 표준오차를, 범주형 변수의 경우 그 분포 퍼센트를 이용하여 제시하였다. 학과별로 모든 학생들의 총점을 3분위수로 구분하여 낮음, 중간, 높음으로 분류하였으며, 조사된 모든 변수들의 일반 선형성을 GLM 모델을 이용하여 검증하였다. 사후 검증은 최소자승법을 이용하여 실시하였으며, 이를 이용하여 각각의 세부 집단별 점수 차이에 대한 유의성을 평가하였다. 관련 항목들 간 상관성 분석을 위하여 스피어만 상관계수를 이용하여 p 값 0.05를 기준으로 유의성 검증을 실시하였다. 모든 통계분석은 SAS 9.12 버전을 이용하여 분석하였다. 설문 대상자들은 학과와 해부학 성적에 상관없이 가상강의 전반에 대해 높은 만족도를 가졌다. 해부학 성적이 좋을수록 가상강의실 접속횟수가 유의하게 높았다. 아울러 해부학 성적이 좋을수록 난이도가 낮고 흥미도는 높게 나타났다. 또한 평가 요인들 간의 상관관계를 분석한 결과, 가상강의의 만족도는 흥미도와 전공과의 연계성과 밀접한 관련이 있었다. 가상강의 게시판을 통한 과제물 관리, 질의응답에 대한 적절성에 대해서는 성적에 따라 일부 유의한 차이가 나타났으나 높은 만족도를 나타내었다. 결론적으로 건강 및 의료 전공자들을 위한 해부학 강의에 있어 가상강의의 도입과 적용은 성공적이었으며, 이는 해부학 전공 교수진이 매우 부족한 현실에서 해부학 강의의 질적 저하를 막고 효율적인 교육을 위한 대안이 될 것으로 판단된다. 단, 해부학 가상강의 컨텐츠의 개선, 자료 보강 및 가상강의의 접근성 확보는 시급히 개선해야할 과제로 남아 있다.

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A Comparative Study On Accident Prediction Model Using Nonlinear Regression And Artificial Neural Network, Structural Equation for Rural 4-Legged Intersection (비선형 회귀분석, 인공신경망, 구조방정식을 이용한 지방부 4지 신호교차로 교통사고 예측모형 성능 비교 연구)

  • Oh, Ju Taek;Yun, Ilsoo;Hwang, Jeong Won;Han, Eum
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.266-279
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    • 2014
  • For the evaluation of roadway safety, diverse methods, including before-after studies, simple comparison using historic traffic accident data, methods based on experts' opinion or literature, have been applied. Especially, many research efforts have developed traffic accident prediction models in order to identify critical elements causing accidents and evaluate the level of safety. A traffic accident prediction model must secure predictability and transferability. By acquiring the predictability, the model can increase the accuracy in predicting the frequency of accidents qualitatively and quantitatively. By guaranteeing the transferability, the model can be used for other locations with acceptable accuracy. To this end, traffic accident prediction models using non-linear regression, artificial neural network, and structural equation were developed in this study. The predictability and transferability of three models were compared using a model development data set collected from 90 signalized intersections and a model validation data set from other 33 signalized intersections based on mean absolute deviation and mean squared prediction error. As a result of the comparison using the model development data set, the artificial neural network showed the highest predictability. However, the non-linear regression model was found out to be most appropriate in the comparison using the model validation data set. Conclusively, the artificial neural network has a strong ability in representing the relationship between the frequency of traffic accidents and traffic and road design elements. However, the predictability of the artificial neural network significantly decreased when the artificial neural network was applied to a new data which was not used in the model developing.

Uncertainty Analysis of Stage-Discharge Curve Based on Bayesian Regression Model Coupled with Change-Point Analysis (Bayesian 회귀분석과 변동점 분석을 이용한 수위-유량 관계곡선 불확실성 분석)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Jang-Gyeong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.364-364
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    • 2012
  • 수자원 연구의 주요 목적인 효과적인 홍수 및 가뭄관리를 하기 위해서는 그 연구의 기초가 되는 자료를 관측하고 정도(accuracy, 精度)를 향상시키는 연구 또한 매우 중요한 부분이라고 볼 수 있다. 이러한 점에서 수위-유량측정의 경우, 관측자의 숙련도와 계측기 오차에 따라 관측값에 미치는 영향이 큰 특징을 갖고 있어 유량측정의 정확성을 높이고자 진보된 계측기의 개발 및 분석 방법에 관한 연구는 꾸준히 진행되고 있다. 일반적으로 유량을 추정하기 위해서 특정 단면에서의 수위를 측정하여 이를 수위-유량 관계곡선을 통해서 유량으로 환산하고, 수위-유량 관계를 측정한 후 이를 회귀분석 방법으로 내삽 및 외삽을 실시하여 유량을 측정하게 된다. 그러나 수위-유량 관계곡선에서 저수위와 고수위를 하나의 곡선식으로 하게 되는 경우 정도가 낮아지게 되므로 많은 경우에 있어서 저수위, 고수위를 각각의 곡선으로 구하여 사용하고 있다. 문제는 이러한 경우 정량적으로 변곡점을 구하기보다는 경험적으로 저수위와 고수위를 구분하고 있으며, 수위-유량관계를 회귀식에 의해서 추정하게 되므로 이에 대한 불확실성이 발생하게 된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 불확실성을 정량화시키기 위한 방법으로 Bayesian MCMC 기법을 활용하며 수위-유량 관계곡선식의 매개변수들의 사후분포를 추정하여 매개변수의 최적화 및 불확실성을 평가하였다. 앞서 언급되었듯이 저수위 및 고수위로 분리하여 수위-유량 곡선식을 도출하고 있으나 저수위 및 고수위를 분리하는 기준이 경험적이기 때문에 신뢰성이 저해되는 문제점이 발생한다. 본 연구에서는 수위-유량 곡선식의 매개변수들을 최적화 하는 동시에 Poisson 분포 기반의 변동점 분석이 연동되어 저수위 및 고수위를 분리할 수 있는 Bayesian 기반 통합 수위-유량 곡선 해석 방법을 개발하고자 한다.

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A study on image distortion improvement using silicon device in thyroid diffusion MRI images (갑상선의 확산강조영상 검사 시 실리콘 이용한 뒤틀림 감소에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Kwan-Woo;Seo, Dae-Keon;Lee, Ho-Beom;Goh, Hee-Jin;Na, Sa-Ra;Han, Dong-Kyoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.7
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    • pp.4380-4386
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    • 2014
  • This study was conducted to minimize the imaging distortion by reducing the differences in susceptibility between the tissue and air surrounding it while performing a thyroid diffusion imaging procedure. The study group was composed of 23 healthy adults. Thyroids with many distortions near the air, larynx, and trachea were chosen to test and evaluate the diffusion imaging difference between before and after an application of silicon. As a result, there was reduced distortion with silicon application, and the differences decreased from 30% to 10%. According to One-way ANOVA and Duncan's post-hoc test, there were no significant differences between imaging with a silicon application and T2 imaging of the surface area, which was the standard image. In conclusion, this study presented a radical improvement in reducing the distortions in imaging by compensating for an uneven tissue surface near air without affecting the magnetic resonance contrast and complicating the imaging processes.

An Ex-post Impact Assessment of the KOR-USA Free Trade Agreement on the Korean Citrus Industry (한·미 FTA 체결 이후 감귤산업 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Bae-Sung;Kim, Man-Keun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.538-545
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    • 2020
  • This study measured the economic impact (from 2012 through the end of 2017) of the KOR-USA FTA (Free Trade Agreement) on the Korean citrus industry according to importing orange from the USA after the implementation of the KOR-USA FTA. Citrus fruits were divided into field citrus grown in open fields, house citrus grown in green houses, and late-maturing citrus (including winter season citrus) based on the cultivation methods and the varieties of citrus. We specified the structural and dynamic recursive demand-supply equilibrium models of three citrus fruits to analyze policy simulations. The results showed that for field citrus, due to the impact of some amounts of TRQ, the annual average of the real gross revenue dropped by 2.39 billion KRW between 2012 and 2017. As for house citrus, due to the impact of oranges and cherries, the annual average of the real gross revenue declined by 3.01 billion KRW between 2012 and 2017, and for late-maturing citrus (including winter season citrus), the annual average of the real gross revenue fell by 15.11 billion KRW between 2012 and 2017. This paper also suggests several policy implications.

Methods and Evaluation of Korean Population Census (인구총조사의 방법과 평가)

  • 김태헌
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.27-46
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    • 1997
  • It is generally known that the quality of Korean population census results is very high. The completeness of the census has been over 97% since 1960. The age errors are very low and they belong to the lowest group in the world. However, Korean census has several problems to be solved, which are suggested as the followings: 1) Since most Koreans are basically educated, we will be able to adopt the self-reporting survey method for the next census instead of the interview method. Then, we can save a lot of time and cost in a census. 2) We have to simplify, the items of age since the effects of the four age items (Korean ago, zodiac year at birth, birth date in solar or lunar calendar) are not large enough to compare to the investments of manpower and costs. 3) It should be helpful to improve the quality of census data if the post enumeration survey is conducted more successfully and the results evaluated for more items not only age are published. 4) For the reduction of the error rates for the age groups of infants, young children and the young labours who are moving frequently, we need some special items for the compliteness of the population census by age group. 5) We have to prepare and release the 1995 2% sample data file to the public users for the improvement of the usefuleness in time. Furtheremore, it is also very important for the research in the field of social sciences that the back series of 2% sample files from 1985 census data are reconstructed.

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A Comparison Study of Alkalinity and Total Carbon Measurements in $CO_2$-rich Water (탄산수의 알칼리도 및 총 탄소 측정방법 비교 연구)

  • Jo, Min-Ki;Chae, Gi-Tak;Koh, Dong-Chan;Yu, Yong-Jae;Choi, Byoung-Young
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2009
  • Alkalinity and total carbon contents were measured by acid neutralizing titration (ANT), back titration (BT), gravitational weighing (GW), non-dispersive infrared-total carbon (NDIR-TC) methods for assessing precision and accuracy of alkalinity and total carbon concentration in $CO_2$-rich water. Artificial $CO_2$-rich water(ACW: pH 6.3, alkalinity 68.8 meq/L, $HCO_3^-$ 2,235 mg/L) was used for comparing the measurements. When alkalinity measured in 0 hr, percent errors of all measurement were 0~12% and coefficient of variation were less than 4%. As the result of post-hoc analysis after repeated measure analysis of variance (RM-AMOVA), the differences between the pair of methods were not significant (within confidence level of 95%), which indicates that the alkalinity measured by any method could be accurate and precise when it measured just in time of sampling. In addition, alkalinity measured by ANT and NDIR-TC were not change after 24 and 48 hours open to atmosphere, which can be explained by conservative nature of alkalinity although $CO_2$ degas from ACW. On the other hand, alkalinity measured by BT and GW increased after 24 and 48 hours open to atmosphere, which was caused by relatively high concentration of measured total carbon and increasing pH. The comparison between geochemical modeling of $CO_2$ degassing and observed data showed that pH of observed ACW was higher than calculated pH. This can be happen when degassed $CO_2$ does not come out from the solution and/or exist in solution as $CO_{2(g)}$ bubble. In that case, $CO_{2(g)}$ bubble doesn't affect the pH and alkalinity. Thus alkalinity measured by ANT and NDIR-TC could not detect the $CO_2$ bubble although measured alkalinity was similar to the calculated alkalinity. Moreover, total carbon measured by ANT and NDIR-TC could be underestimated. Consequently, it is necessary to compare the alkalinity and total carbon data from various kind of methods and interpret very carefully. This study provide technical information of measurement of dissolve $CO_2$ from $CO_2$-rich water which could be natural analogue of geologic sequestration of $CO_2$.