• Analyses & Alternatives
• /
• v.6 no.2
• /
• pp.117-154
• /
• 2022

The purpose of this study is to verify the practical validity of financial sanctions, which has recently emerged as the most powerful form of economic sanctions preferred by U.S. foreign policy tool. Based on the theoretical discussion, analyse this study the trend of de-dollarization appearing in connection with financial sanctions and argue that the effectiveness of financial sanctions erode the dollar financial hegemony, which is the source of its power can be degraded, so that its effectiveness could not be so great as most people likely think about. After World War II, there has been an increasing tendency in the international community to favor economic sanctions over the use of military force as an effective means of foreign policy. Among these economic sanctions, a distinct feature that has recently appeared is the remarkable increase in the frequency of use of financial sanctions. The country that favors financial sanctions most is the United States. The reason is that they believe that the power of their own dollar financial hegemony can exert deadly pressure on other countries. Financial sanctions favored by the United States are said to have increased the effectiveness of sanctions by upgrading the pressure of sanctions to the next level. Nevertheless, financial sanctions have a side that underestimates the cost. This problem is found in the signs that the backlash from not only countries subject to financial sanctions but also many countries with interests in these countries is leading to a tendency to de-dollarization. This study will try to see how likely this de-dollarization trend is to offset the effectiveness of financial sanctions.

• Analyses & Alternatives
• /
• v.7 no.2
• /
• pp.179-207
• /
• 2023

Carbon neutrality, the international community's practical challenge in response to climate change, is becoming a key industrial strategy for the future development of nations. Despite concerns that China, as an economic powerhouse in the G2, may face challenges leading global climate change efforts due to its high-carbon-emitting industrial structure, it is leveraging carbon neutrality to enhance its industrial competitiveness. The Chinese government has formulated national policies for achieving carbon neutrality and detailed sector-specific plans to implement them. In particular, it aims to leverage carbon neutrality industrial strategies as a lever for adjusting the domestic industrial structure and fostering new industries, at the same time responding to international climate norms and external pressures. However, the effectiveness of carbon-neutral industrial strategies is expected to vary based on regional conditions such as economic and industrial levels. This article analyzes the regional conditions for implementing carbon neutrality in China, as well as the contents and characteristics of major industrial policies. Due to differing levels of economic development and industrial structures, significant variations in carbon emissions, size, emission sources, and efficiency are inevitable across regions. These disparities introduce diverse initial conditions and endogenous factors in pursuing carbon-neutral goals, limiting the direction and implementation of carbon-neutral industrial strategies favoring certain regions. In particular, the extent of policy autonomy granted to local governments regarding carbon neutrality implementation will influence the regional dynamics of central-local environmental governance. Consequently, it is crucial to emphasize regional monitoring alongside comprehensive national research to accurately navigate the path towards carbon neutrality in China. In summary, the article underscores the importance of understanding regional variations in economic development, industrial structure, and policy autonomy for successful carbon neutrality implementation in China. It highlights the need for regional monitoring and comprehensive national research to determine a more precise direction for achieving carbon neutrality.

• Analyses & Alternatives
• /
• v.6 no.2
• /
• pp.155-183
• /
• 2022

The purpose of this study is to econometrically analyze the negative impact of the May 18 Democratic Uprising on the Gwangju/Jeonnam regionional economy using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). The SCM SCM is a methodology similar to the difference-in-difference(DID) method of microeconometrics. It is applied to macroeconomic variables such as country, region, etc. to estimate the causal relationship between specific events and the dependent variable. In this study, as of 1980, local tax revenue data of metropolitan local governments were used as a proxy variable for the economy of the region, and the impact of the May 18 Democratic Uprising on the economy of Gwangju/Jeonnam region was analyzed through various socio-economic indicators. In this study, data were used to analyze from 1971 to 2000, and as a result of empirical analysis, local tax revenues in Gwangju/Jeonnam area were less collected than normal routes up to 17%. In addition, the significance of this analysis was confirmed through in-time placebo effect analysis and in-space placebo effect analysis, which are methods of analyzing the robustness of the control group synthesis method.

• Analyses & Alternatives
• /
• v.8 no.2
• /
• pp.65-86
• /
• 2024

This study delves into the geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine throughout modern European history, aiming to shed light on its significance in geopolitical discourse. Since the 19th century, European powers, particularly the Anglo-Saxons and Germans, have formulated distinct geopolitical strategies concerning the Eurasian continent, with Ukraine at its focal point. The Crimean War and the German-Soviet War serve as key events to analyze these powers' geopolitical ambitions and interests. The British Empire, driven by its doctrine of thwarting land powers with sea power, intervened in the Crimean War against Russia. Its objective was to disrupt Russian dominance over Ukraine, thereby hindering Russian expansion into the Black Sea and Central Europe. On the other hand, the Third Reich of Germany, fixated on creating a European sphere exclusive from Anglo-Saxon sea powers and the Russian land power, initiated the German-Soviet War. This move aimed to secure a vast territory, including Ukraine, to facilitate expansion into the Caucasus and establish a buffer zone against the Soviet Union. Three key insights emerge from this analysis. Firstly, the absence of a dominant power rooted in Ukraine since the fall of the Principality of Kiev made geopolitical clashes inevitable. Secondly, these clashes ultimately result in a hollow victory for all involved parties, signifying the high costs and minimal gains of such confrontations. Lastly, the root cause of these clashes lies in the discord between exclusive geopolitical visions that fail to accommodate sustainable coexistence among diverse geopolitical spheres. In essence, the study underscores Ukraine's pivotal role in shaping European geopolitics and highlights the recurring clashes driven by competing visions of dominance and control over its territory. From the Crimean War to the German-Soviet War, the struggle for influence over Ukraine reflects broader geopolitical dynamics and the pursuit of strategic advantage by major powers. Ultimately, the study emphasizes the enduring significance of Ukraine in European geopolitics and the complexities inherent in managing its geopolitical tensions.

• Analyses & Alternatives
• /
• v.6 no.2
• /
• pp.79-115
• /
• 2022

This study aims to account for electoral choice in the 2020 presidential election by focusing on social identity which forms the basis for core partisan groups. Two views compete to explain the origins of polarization, policy versus party. One emphasizes policy as more influential in choosing presidential candidates. This follows the tradition of retrospective voting theory in which voters' choice rely on government performance. Incumbent president whose performance proves well are rewarded to be reelected. Policy performance is based on measures around distinctive preferences for government spending. Republican Individuals prefer individual responsibility to government support, while Democratic counterparts support government support. Another perspective put an emphasis on the role partisanship which favors in-party members and disfavors partisan out-groups. Interparty animosity plays the key role in determining electoral behavior. This study relies on the Views of the Electorate Research (VOTER) Survey which provides a panel data of several waves from 2011 to 2020. A comparative evaluation of two views highlights three findings. First, policy matters. Policy preferences of voters are the primary drives of political behavior. Electoral outcomes in 2020 turned out to be the results of policy considerations of voters. 53.7 percent of voters tilted toward individual responsibility voted for Trump, whereas 70.4 percent of those favorable views of government support than individual responsibility voted for Biden. Thus effects of policy correspond to a positive difference of 26.4 percent points. Second, partisanship effects are of similar extent in influencing electoral choice of candidates: Democrats are less likely to vote for Trump by 42.4 percent points, while Republicans are less likely to vote for Biden by 48.7 percent points. Third, animosity of Republicans toward Democrat core groups creates 26.5 percent points of favoring Trump over Biden. Democrat animosity toward Republican core groups creates a positive difference of 13.7 percent points of favoring Biden.

• The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.137-172
• /
• 2008

The earliest safety data programs, the FDR and CVR, were electronic reporting systems that generate data "automatically." The FDR program, originally instituted in 1958, had no publicly available restrictions for protections against sanctions by the FAA or an airline, although there are agreements and union contracts forbidding the use of FDR data for FAA enforcement actions. This FDR program still has the least formalized protections. With the advent of the CVR program in 1966, the precursor to the current FAR 91.25 was already in place, having been promulgated in 1964. It stated that the FAA would not use CVR data for enforcement actions. In 1982, Congress began restricting the disclosure of the CVR tape and transcripts. Congress added further clarification of the availability of discovery in civil litigation in 1994. Thus, the CVR data have more definitive protections in place than do FDR data. The ASRS was the first non-automatic reporting system; and built into its original design in 1975 was a promise of limited protection from enforcement sanctions. That promise was further codified in an FAR in 1979. As with the CVR, from its inception, the ASRS had some protections built in for the person who might have had a safety problem. However, the program did not (and to this day does not) explicitly deal with issues of use by airlines, litigants, or the public media, although it appears that airlines will either take a non-punitive stance if an ASRS report is filed, or the airline may ignore the fact that it has been filed at all. The FAA worked with several U.S. airlines in the early 1990s on developing ASAP programs, and the FAA issued an Advisory Circular about the program in 1997. From its inception, the ASAP program contained some FAA enforcement protections and company discipline protections, although some protection against litigation disclosure and public disclosure was not added until 2003, when FAA Order 8000.82 was promulgated, placing the program under the protections of FAR 193, which had been added in 2001. The FOQA program, when it was first instituted through a demonstration program in 1995, did not contain protections against sanctions. Now, however, the FAA cannot take enforcement action based on FOQA safety data, and an airline is limited to "corrective action" under the program. Union contracts can exclude FOQA from the realm of disciplinary action, although airline practice may be for airlines to require retraining if there is no contract in place forbidding it. The data is protected against disclosure for litigation and public media purposes by FAA Order 8000.81, issued in 2003, which placed FOQA under the protections of FAR 193. The figure on the next page shows when each program began, and when each statute, regulation, or order became effective for that program.

• Analyses & Alternatives
• /
• v.7 no.1
• /
• pp.115-145
• /
• 2023

The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (hereafter referred to as "the 20th National Congress") was under the global spotlight long before it was held for seven days from 16 to 22 October 2022. People wondered whether Xi Jinping would secure a third term as China's leader or whether he would lay the foundations to be in power forever during the third term. In Korea, the press and media questioned whether the event would become the "crowning of Emperor Xi (Xi Huangdi)," whose power rivaled that of the first emperor in China, Shi Hunagdi, and featured the scene where Hu Jintao was forced to leave the venue during the Congress. On the other hand, many Korean academics focused more on how Xi would organize the Politburo and its Standing Committee and whether the outline of his heirs would appear during the event. This tendency in academia in turn worsened the media's concerns. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the 20th National Congress Report, as opposed to an analysis of Xi's political intentions at the event. The National Congress Report outlines the Party's visions, goals, and strategies for the next five years in politics, economy, society, culture, foreign affairs, and relationship with Taiwan. The authoritative document is rich in narrative and logic and deserves academic study. This research analyzes the 18th, 19th, and 20th Reports by identifying their keywords and regular expressions and checking their frequency and percentage through text-mining methods. This approach enables the quantification and visualization of the significant changes in the Party's sovereign vision over the fifteen years of Xi's rule from 2013 to 2027.

• The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
• /
• v.24 no.1
• /
• pp.35-58
• /
• 2009

A treaty that governs the compensation on damage caused by aircraft to the third parties on surface was first adopted in Rome in 1933, but without support from the international aviation community it was replaced by another convention adopted again in Rome in 1952. Despite the increase of the compensation amount and some improvements to the old version, the Rome Convention 1952 with 49 State parties as of today is not considered universally accepted. Neither is the Montreal Protocol 1978 amending the Rome Convention 1952, with only 12 State parties excluding major aviation powers like USA, Japan, UK, and Germany. Consequently, it is mostly the local laws that apply to the compensation case of surface damage caused by the aircraft, contrary to the intention of those countries and people who involved themselves in the drafting of the early conventions on surface damage. The terrorist attacks 9/11 proved that even the strongest power in the world like the USA cannot with ease bear all the damages done to the third parties by the terrorist acts involving aircraft. Accordingly as a matter of urgency, the International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO) picked up the matter and have it considered among member States for a few years through its Legal Committee before proposing for adoption as a new treaty in the Diplomatic Conference held in Montreal, Canada 20 April to 2 May 2009. Accordingly, two treaties based on the drafts of the Legal Committee were adopted in Montreal by consensus, one on the compensation for general risk damage caused by aircraft, the other one on compensation for damage from acts of unlawful interference involving aircraft. Both Conventions improved the old Convention/Protocol in many aspects. Deleting 'surface' in defining the damage to the third parties in the title and contents of the Conventions is the first improvement because the third party damage is not necessarily limited to surface on the soil and sea of the Earth. Thus Mid-air collision is now the new scope of application. Increasing compensation limit in big gallop is another improvement, so is the inclusion of the mental injury accompanied by bodily injury as the damage to be compensated. In fact, jurisprudence in recent years for cases of passengers in aircraft accident holds aircraft operators to be liable to such mental injuries. However, "Terror Convention" involving unlawful interference of aircraft has some unique provisions of innovation and others. While establishing the International Civil Aviation Compensation Fund to supplement, when necessary, the damages that exceed the limit to be covered by aircraft operators through insurance taking is an innovation, leaving the fate of the Convention to a State Party, implying in fact the USA, is harming its universality. Furthermore, taking into account the fact that the damage incurred by the terrorist acts, where ever it takes place targeting whichever sector or industry, are the domain of the State responsibility, imposing the burden of compensation resulting from terrorist acts in the air industry on the aircraft operators and passengers/shippers is a source of serious concern for the prospect of the Convention. This is more so when the risks of terrorist acts normally aimed at a few countries because of current international political situation are spread out to many innocent countries without quid pro quo.