• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.35-48
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• 2014

According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.2021-2031
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• 2013

Due to the rapid economic growth within the nation, the quality of life of individuals have improved dramatically. The scope of living activities of individuals have also extended, resulting in a rapidly increasing demand for automobiles. The number of vehicles registered in Korea is rapidly increasing and will reach 188.71 million as of December 2012. Compared to the registered residents of 50.94 million provided by the Ministry of Public Administration and Security, the registered population reflects about 4 people per every automobile. Due to the high demands for vehicles, the demands for parking lots in collective housing and businesses are also increasing. In reality, the current state of expansion of parking lots are underground, due to the limited available space on ground level. Specifically, the slope of a parking lot cannot exceed 17% linear slope and 14% curved slope according to the 'parking lot laws', however studies show that the driver feels at risk for safety when stopped on the parking ramp while driving in the parking lot. This study seeks to examine the suitability of parking lot ramps, concerning the safety aspects of the driver. First, the ramp type was categorized as linear or curved, then test drives were performed based on variations of slopes, slant distances, directions and points. A survey was administered to the driver after the completion of the test drive, in order to element design for an ideal ramp. In the case of curved ramp, the results of the estimate suggests a counterclockwise, slope at a maximum of 12% incline. The maximum slope for a linear ramp was analyzed to be between 13~14%, suggesting that slope greater than 15% need to be eliminated. In conclusion, it is anticipated that the element design parking ramp reported in this study will help to serve as a reference for future parking lot related guidelines, and provide cost effective traffic safety mechanisms in future parking lot businesses to follow.

• Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.63-68
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• 2015

Purpose: This study analyzed a small outbreak of measles at a single hospital located in northern Gyeonggi-do in 2013. Methods: We reviewed the medical records of measles patients at The Catholic University of Korea Uijeongbu St. Mary's Hospital from August to October, 2013. Results: Fifteen children were confirmed to have measles by RT-PCR and serum IgM test; 1 neonate, 11 infants, and 3 toddlers. None of the patients had received Measles-Mumps-Rubella vaccination. All patients showed B3 type in viral genotyping. Nine children (60%) had been exposed to measles during treatment for other diseases in the pediatric ward. Incubation period was between 8 and 15 days. Fever started at a median 10 days after exposure and persisted for a median of 8 days. Rash showed at a median 13 days after exposure. Respiratory complications were observed in 40% of patients. Diarrhea developed in 53% of patients. Conclusion: Although measles has been well-controlled due to the high rate of vaccination coverage, it is possible to have an outbreak at any given time, especially in infants. We must learn from this outbreak, and remain fully aware of the possibility of reemergence and provide proper management, including vaccination or immune globulin administration, to infants exposed to measles. Reevaluation of serum IgG titer of neonates, infants, and pregnant women may be the first step to prevent further outbreaks.

• Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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• v.50 no.5
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• pp.436-442
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• 2007

Purpose : To promote awareness and efforts by pediatricians to identity and prevent child abuse by investigation of characteristics of victim and types of injury caused by abuse. Methods : A retrospective study was performed with 20 patients who had been diagnosed or suspected as child abuse at Hallym University Hospital from January 1999 to December 2005. The medical records, radiologic documents, and social worker's notes were reviewed to investigate age, sex, visiting time, form of abuse, perpetrator, risk factor, and type of injury. Results : The mean age of the subjects was 2.8 years. Fourteen patients were between 0-1 years old, 2 patients between 1-6 years old, 3 patients between 7-12 years old, and 1 case over 13 years old. The ratio of male to female was 1:1. The majority of these patients (70%) visited via emergency department. Eight five percent of these patients reported with physical abuse, 5% psychological abuse, 5% sexual abuse, and 5% neglect respectively. The suspected perpetrator was the biological father in six cases, the biological mother in three cases, the stepmother in two cases, caregiver in one case, relatives in one case and "unknown" in six cases. Bruise and hematoma (80%) were the most common physical findings. Skull fractures were diagnosed in six cases, long bone fractures in two cases, hemoperitoneum in two cases, subdural hemorrhage in 10 cases, epidural hemorrhages in two cases, subarachnoidal hemorrhages in two cases, and retinal hemorrhages in five cases respectively. Seventeen cases required hospitalization and surgical operations performed were in nine cases. Four patients died and three patients had sequalae such as developmental delay and quadriplegia. Conclusion : Child abuse results in high mortality and morbidity in victims. Therefore early recognition and prevention is very important. Pediatricians should always suspect the possibilities of abuse in cases of fracture, intracranial hemorrhage, abdominal injury, or even any injury to the body. We recommend that the clinical investigation of suspicious children should include a full multidisciplinary social assessment, a skeletal survey and CT or MRI.

• Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.21-31
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• 2002

The aim of this study was to analyse and conduct the comprehensive geriatric assessment for the elderly in rural area. The subjects were 388 older people aged 65 years or older living in the community. Data for comprehensive assessment such as physical, mental, functional, social and environmental conditions were collected from January to February, 2001 through a person-to-person interview. Of the total 388 olders, 169(43.6%) were men and 219(56.4%) were women. Mean ages of men and women were $73.5{\pm}6.4$ and $74.0{\pm}6.2$ years respectively. Three common diseases of the elderly were arthralgia(51.6%), chronic back pain(33.2%) and hypertension(18.6%), and higher in women than in men. Impairment rate of vision, hearing and bowel or bladder control was 59.0%, 20.1%, and 28.4% respectively. But that of lover extremities 3.4%. In terms of cognitive function, short term memory loss was found in 33.7% of males and 44.7% of females. The percentage of fully independent in the six ADL items was 72.2% in men and 58.9% in women. In the social supportive system, 49.5% of the elderly were living with spouse, and 22.9% living alone, 26.3% having care giver. These results will provide basic data for the development of community-based health program, which gives appropriate health service for the elderly living in the community.

• The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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• no.28
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• pp.35-81
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• 2011

Manhwa is a mass media (to expose all faces of an era such as politics, society, cultures, etc with the methodology of irony, parody, etc). Since the Manhwa records is primary culture infrastructure, it can create the high value-added industry by connecting with fancy, character, game, movie, drama, theme park, advertising business. However, due to lack of active and systematic aquisition system, as precious Manhwa manuscript is being lost every year and the contents hard to preserve such as Manhwa content in the form of electronic records are increasing, the countermeasure of Manhwa contents management is needed desperately. In this study, based on these perceptions, the need of Manhwa records management is examined, and the characteristics and the components of Manhwa records were analyzed. And at the same time, the functions of record management process reflecting the characteristics of Manhwa records were extracted by analyzing various cases of overseas Cartoon Archives. And then, the framework of record-keeping regime was segmented into each of acquisition management service areas and the general Manhwa records archiving strategy, which manages the Manhwa contents records, was established and suggested. The acquired Manhwa content records will secure the context among records and warrant the preservation of records and provide diverse access points by reflecting multi classification and multi-level descriptive element. The Manhwa records completed the intellectual arrangement will be preserved after the conservation in an environment equipped with preservation facilities or preserved using digital format in case of electronic records or when there is potential risk of damaging the records. Since the purpose of the Manhwa records is to use them, the information may be provided to diverse classes of users through the exhibition, the distribution, and the development of archival information content. Since the term of "Manhwa records" is unfamiliar yet and almost no study has been conducted in the perspective of records management, it will be the limit of this study only presenting acquisition strategy, management and service strategy of Manhwa contents and suggesting simple examples. However, if Manhwa records management strategy are possibly introduced practically to Manhwa manuscript repositories through archival approach, it will allow systematic acquisition, preservation, arrangement of Manhwa records and will contribute greatly to form a foundation for future Korean culture contents management.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.61-75
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• 2021

Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate change increased and the aging of the existing spillway, it is necessary to establish a plan to utilize an auxiliary spillway to minimize the flood damage of downstream rivers. Most studies have been conducted on the review of flow characteristics according to the operation of auxiliary spillway through the hydraulic experiments and numerical modeling. However, the studies on examination of flood damage in the downstream rivers and the stability of the revetment according to the operation of the auxiliary spillway were relatively insufficient in the literature. In this study, the stability of the revetment on the downstream river according to the outflow conditions of the existing and auxiliary spillway was examined by using 3D numerical model, FLOW-3D. The velocity, water surface elevation and shear stress results of FLOW-3D were compared with the permissible velocity and shear stress of design criteria. It was assumed the sluice gate was fully opened. As a result of numerical simulations of various auxiliary spillway operations during flood season, the single operation of the auxiliary spillway showed the reduction effect of maximum velocity and the water surface elevation compared with the single operation of the existing spillway. The stability of the revetment on downstream was satisfied under the condition of outflow less than 45% of the design flood discharge. However, the potential overtopping damage was confirmed in the case of exceeding the 45% of the design flood discharge. Therefore, the simultaneous operation with the existing spillway was important to ensure the stability on design flood discharge condition. As a result of examining the allocation ratio and the total allowable outflow, the reduction effect of maximum velocity was confirmed on the condition, where the amount of outflow on auxiliary spillway was more than that on existing spillway. It is because the flow of downstream rivers was concentrated in the center due to the outflow of existing spillway. The permissible velocity and shear stress were satisfied under the condition of less than 77% of the design flood discharge with simultaneous operation. It was found that the flood damage of downstream rivers can be minimized by setting the amount allocated to the auxiliary spillway to be larger than the amount allocated to the existing spillway for the total outflow with simultaneous operation condition. However, this study only reviewed the flow characteristics around the revetment according to the outflow of spillway under the full opening of the sluice gate condition. Therefore, the various sluice opening conditions and outflow scenarios will be asked to derive more efficient utilization of the auxiliary spillway in th future.

• The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.95-110
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• 2011

As global economic conditions are getting uneasy and polarization of our economy is intensified, the economic sentiment of small businesses is still low and unstable. The collapse of worldwide banking systems due to sub prime crisis in 2007 became the catalyst that shakes financial industries in each country in the world; the most sentiment people, small businesspersons, also have hard time facing survival way out, facing a great crisis. All organizing powers including manufactures, wholesales and retails are being gradually greater in mutual relations and dependence, and unstable factors about risks are also increasing. For exterior environmental and physical risk factors which cannot make small businesses survive themselves by developing ways out are eventually increasing, those who cannot cope with these factors face a great crisis. Although the government tries hard to overcome this situation conducting many ways, the effect does not continue. It is the real state that independent business markets including overall employment and establishing business have vicious cycle that they cannot be improved, due to increase of employment centered on short-term labors which lack durability in creation of employment and decline of household income. Recently, growth shows indication of slowdown because of multinational risk factors including financial crisis in each country in Europe, the death of Kim Jung-il, relationship with North Korea, and unstability of war situation in the Middle East Asia. Experts expect that growth rate will be about 4%, and independent business that ordinary people feel is still gloomy. It's reality that there is no adequate alternative for lack of jobs, unstable employment and a means of living after retirement. Also, the fact that large companies enter the market which is narrow and in the excessive competition should be an environmental factor that makes the situation worse. The business concept, a franchise, is the part we should think about whether it is the institutional solution that can guarantee independent businessmen stable life. Major companies are frightfully entering the market today, breaking the barrier to entry and shouting of a win-win with independent businesses. It's the small businesspersons who go through painful domestic recession, cannot predict the future and manage confusing and unstable independent business. It's very important to restore the domestic economy through wisely boosting consumption as soon as possible. It's also important to lead the situation by gathering powers of the government and related organizations, agonizing, suggesting solutions, and establishing accurate directions. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to suggest ways to strengthen competitiveness of small businesspersons by examining small business support policies which are currently implemented.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.45 no.1
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• pp.11-25
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• 1979

There was much mass movement at many different mountain side of Peong Chang area in Kwangwon province by the influence of heavy rainfall through August/4 5, 1979. This study have done with the fact observed through the field survey and the information of the former researchers. The results are as follows; 1. Heavy rainfall area with more than 200mm per day and more than 60mm per hour as maximum rainfall during past 6 years, are distributed in the western side of the connecting line through Hoeng Seong, Weonju, Yeongdong, Muju, Namweon and Suncheon, and of the southern sea side of KeongsangNam-do. The heavy rain fan reason in the above area seems to be influenced by the mouktam range and moving direction of depression. 2. Peak point of heavy rainfall distribution always happen during the night time and seems to cause directly mass movement and serious damage. 3. Soil mass movement in Peongchang break out from the course sandy loam soil of granite group and the clay soil of lime stone and shale. Earth have moved along the surface of both bedrock or also the hardpan in case of the lime stone area. 4. Infiltration seems to be rapid on the both bedrock soil, the former is by the soil texture and the latter is by the crumb structure, high humus content and dense root system in surface soil. 5. Topographic pattern of mass movement spot is mostly the concave slope at the valley head or at the upper part of middle slope which run-off can easily come together from the surrounding slope. Soil profile of mass movement spot has wet soil in the lime stone area and loose or deep soil in the granite area. 6. Dominant slope degree of the soil mass movement site has steep slope, mostly, more than 25 degree and slope position that start mass movement is mostly in the range of the middle slope line to ridge line. 7. Vegetation status of soil mass movement area are mostly fire field agriculture area, it's abandoned grass land, young plantation made on the fire field poor forest of the erosion control site and non forest land composed mainly grass and shrubs. Very rare earth sliding can be found in the big tree stands but mostly from the thin soil site on the un-weatherd bed rock. 8. Dangerous condition of soil mass movement and land sliding seems to be estimated by the several environmental factors, namely, vegetation cover, slope degree, slope shape and position, bed rock and soil profile characteristics etc. 9. House break down are mostly happen on the following site, namely, colluvial cone and fan, talus, foot area of concave slope and small terrace or colluvial soil between valley and at the small river side Dangerous house from mass movement could be interpreted by the aerial photo with reference of the surrounding site condition of house and village in the mountain area 10. As a counter plan for the prevention of mass movement damage the technics of it's risk diagnosis and the field survey should be done, and the mass movement control of prevention should be started with the goverment support as soon as possible. The precautionary measures of house and village protection from mass movement damage should be made and executed and considered the protecting forest making around the house and village. 11. Dangerous or safety of house and village from mass movement and flood damage will be indentified and informed to the village people of mountain area through the forest extension work. 12. Clear cutting activity on the steep granite site, fire field making on the steep slope, house or village construction on the dangerous site and fuel collection in the eroded forest or the steep forest land should be surely prohibited When making the management plan the mass movement, soil erosion and flood problem will be concidered and also included the prevention method of disaster.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.44-58
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• 2018

Cities face new challenges not only in natural disasters by climate change but also in social and economic fluctuations. With the existing simple reconstruction method, it is difficult to solve the overall problems that a city or region may face. As a new approach to cope with various changes, the concept of resilience is emerging. Resilience is also one of the themes of recent major urban design projects. Design with the concept of resilience is a new strategy that can deal with various changes of urban space, rather than a temporary trend. The purpose of this paper is to explore the design method by analyzing cases where the concept of resilience is employed. We aim to examine what kind of design strategies are needed for the resilience design and how this design process differ in character, as compared to general design projects. Cases for this study include the "Rebuild by Design" competition held in 2013 and the "Resilient by Design/Bay Area Challenge" competition held in 2017. This paper consists of literature reviews and case studies. The latter is divided into two aspects: content analysis based on the theory of resilience and characteristics of the design process. Cases are analyzed through literature reviews and process characteristics of resilience design in response to the general design process. The main categories for urban resilience used as the framework for analysis include: Urban Infrastructure, Social Dynamics, Economic Dynamics, Health and Wellbeing, Governance Networks, and Planning and Institutions. As a result, the aspects of resilience concepts considered and design strategies undertaken by each team were identified. Each team tried to connect all 6 categories to their design strategies, placing special value on the role of governance, a system that enables collaborative design and project persistency. In terms of the design process, the following characteristics were found: planning the whole project process in the pre-project phase, analyzing predictable socioeconomic risk factors in addition to physical vulnerabilities, aiming for landscape-oriented integrated design, and sustainable implementation strategies with specific operations and budget plans. This paper is meaningful to connect the concept of resilience, which has been discussed in various articles, to design strategy, and to explore the possibility of constructing a practical methodology by deriving the characteristics of the resilience design process. It remains a future task to research design strategies that apply the concept of resilience to various types of urban spaces, in addition to areas that are vulnerable to disasters.