• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.7
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• pp.197-204
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• 2002

교통사고예측 및 예방을 위해서는 실제적으로 도로설계과정에서 제어가 가능한 도로 기하구조요소에 대한 사고관계를 파악함이 타당하다. 즉, 도로의 설계자는 도로건설에 앞서 기하구조요소와 사고와의 관계를 현장자료를 통해 정확히 밝혀 도로설계에 반영해야 한다. 이를 위해, 교통사고의 빈도분포를 박히는 것은 가장 기본이 되는 일이며, 교통사고 예측모형개발에 선행되어야 한다. 일반적으로 교통사고건수의 경우 분산이 평균보다 큰 과분산(overdispersion)의 특징을 가지고 있어 음이항 분포를 따른다고 알려져 있다. 따라서 본 논문은 사고모형의 개발에 앞서, 사고발생지점에 대한 도로설계요소와 기타 잠재적인 사고발생 관련요인이 비교적 잘 파악되어있는 호남고속도로를 중심으로 평면 선형상 곡선부에 대하여 교통사고의 분포를 적합도 검정을 통해 알아보고자 하였다. 사고자료는 한국도로송사의 호남고속도로 5년(1996∼2000)간 자료를 분석에 맞게 정리하였으며, 강민욱과 송봉수(2002)에서 제시한 평면선형에 있어서의 구간분할법을 이용하여 배향곡선구간과 단일곡선구간에 대한 사고분석을 하였다. 적합도 분석결과, 예상대로 음이항분포가 사고건수를 설명하기에 가장 적합한 확률분포로 제시되었으며, 이를 통해 최우추정법을 이용한 음이항회귀모형을 개발하였다. 구간분할법을 적용한 음이항회귀모형의 경우, 기존의 확률회귀토형에 비하여 높은 결정계수를 갖았으며, 모형에서 적용된 기하구조요소로는 차량 노출계수, 곡선반경, 단위거리 당 편경사변화값 등이다.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.120-126
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• 2005

The method of decreasing the ecological risk for the LRE(Liquid Rocket Engine) test is developed, working on the cryogenic oxidizer and the high-boiling fuel(Kerosene). This Method is based on the study that contains a technical solution method and an accident occurrence range for decreasing of accident probability and damage. This paper contains schematic on the all risk circumstance bring to accident, block-diagram for an accident growth process in case of the propellant leakage, technical solution method and risk reduction evaluation method. It will be used to alternative method for the risk reduction of complex technical systems.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.4 s.82
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• pp.47-55
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• 2005

In recent years, the rapid growth of vehicles have increased traffic crashes. Since they can cause the economic losses and have put the life qualify in danger, there should be numerous efforts to reduce traffic crashes. To reduce traffic crashes, this research seeks to improve the safety of intersections by analysing causations of injury severity with Ordered Probability Model. This research applied the Ordered Probit Model, which assumes that ${\epsilon}_i$(random error) is normally distributed, for model calibration and used $p^2$ (likelihood ratio) and $x^2$ (Chi-square) for model selection. The results show that minor road traffic, heavy vehicle rates, major and minor right-turn rates, presence of lightings, speed limits, instructive line for left-turn traffic are significant factors affecting crash severities at signalized intersections.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society for Energy Engineering kosee Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.294-299
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• 2006

한국에서는 석유화학 산업의 역사가 30년 이상이 되어 잠재적인 사고의 위험 가능성이 높아지고 있다. 지금까지의 석유화학 산업에서의 전통적인 위험성 평가와 시스템의 제어는 기계적인 결함에만 중점을 두었기 때문에 인간의 행동을 제어하는 것은 간과하여 왔다. 비록 자동화 기술가 제어기술의 발전이 필요함에도 불구하고 인간의 의사 결정 요소는 석유화학 산업에서 사고를 예방하는데 필수적이다. 대부분의 심각한 사고는 부적절한 인간의 행동과 안정장치의 기계적인 결함이 동시에 존재할 경우에 발생한다. A-HRA(Advanced Reliability Analyzer) 소프트 웨어는 석유화학 플랜트 내에서의 인적오류 확률을 분석하고 사고 데이터를 축적하기 위하여 개발되었다. A-HRA 프로그램을 이용하여 1960년대 이후부터 최근 까지 한국의 석유화학 산업에서 발생하여온 인적오류 사고 데이터를 입력하고 사고마다의 근본원인과 수행영향인자를 분석하였다. 이 본문에서는 Root cause Aanlysis을 통한 결과와 PIF(Performance Influencing Factor) 평가 결과를 보여준다. 이 분석 결과는 석유화학 산업의 안전을 극대화 시키면서도 인적오류 제어를 통하여 안전비용을 최저화 시킬 수 있는 대책을 제시할 것이다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.25 no.2 s.95
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• pp.95-105
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• 2007

Speeding and drunken driving make drivers fail to detect hazards and cope with various driving situations. These behaviors also raise the possibility of being involved in traffic accidents and tend to increase the number of fatalities. The authors compared the driving behavior determinants of a rockless drivers group, consisting of individuals who have committed traffic accidents or offended regulations through drunken driving, with a normal drivers group. In the results, the reckless drivers group showed high scores of 'speeding' and 'drunken driving', and they also stated that they had more experiences of speeding, drunken driving and traffic accidents. In the path analysis study, it was found that the impacts of the rockless drivers group's 'risk sensitivity' and 'situational adaptability' on traffic accidents were stronger than those of normal drivers. This means 'risk sensitivity' and 'situational adaptability' can explain the origins of traffic accidents better in the reckless drivers group than accidents of the normal drivers group.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.81-86
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• 1997

This study is to estimate the possibility of accident in chemical plants from the analysis of system component which affects the occurrence of top event. Among the various risk assessment techniques, the Fault Tree Analysis which approaches deductively on the route of accident development was used in this study. By gate-by-gate method and minimal cut set, the qualitative and quantitative risk assessment for hazards in plants was performed. The probability of occurrence and frequency of top event was calculated from failure or reliability data of system components at stage of the quantitative risk assessment. In conclusion, the probability of accident was estimated according to logic pattern based on the Fault Tree Analysis. And the failure path which mostly influences on the occurrence of top event was found from Importance Analysis.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.161-172
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• 2017

To evaluate radiological impact from the operation of a low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste disposal facility, a logical presentation and explanation of expected accidental scenarios is essential to the stakeholders of the disposal facility. The logical assessment platform and procedure, including analysis of the safety function of disposal components, operational hazard analysis, operational risk analysis, and preparedness of remedial measures for operational safety, are improved in this study. In the operational risk analysis, both design measures and management measures are suggested to make it possible to connect among design, operation, and safety assessment within the same assessment platform. For the preparedness of logical assessment procedure, classification logic of an operational accident is suggested based on the probability of occurrence and consequences of assessment results. The improved assessment platform and procedure are applied to an operational accident analysis of the Korean low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste disposal facility and partly presented in this paper.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.42-54
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• 2018

This study is to establish the traffic volume-based warrants of left-turn lanes in unsignalized intersections based on a risk probability methodology. This study applied a risk probability of a potential rear-end collision between a left-turn vehicle and the immediately following through vehicle. With the shifted negative exponential model and the compound probability theorem, the risk probability can be expressed as the function of directional volumes, opposing volumes and the percentage of left-turns for a two-lane and four-land highway, respectively. The warrants of installing left-turn lanes on unsignalized intersections were developed with the risk probability. The warrants define the total approaching and opposing volumes to encourage a left-turn lane as a function of operating speed, percentage of left-turn, and number of lanes.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.15-21
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• 1998

In this research, we studied reach the conclusion with more probability for predicting the severity which based on fire cases in domestic department stores for last 30 years. Considering the number of yearly fire cases in department stores and the cost of damage, we set the risk level. Moreover, this research shows the severity of fire in department stores through its scenario applying to FPETOOL program which NIST in USA has developed. By the result of FPETOOL program operation, we could acquired information about the time reaching the point where people are in danger in temperature, smoke layer and gas concentration. When a fire breaks out in a department store, a great loss of property and life is significant, as well as the potential risk is awfully considerable. Therefore, we should prevent a five from occuring.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.49-58
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• 2002

A large number of accidents at an underground place have been happening, including the gas explosion under construction of subway; the fires of underground utility and underground shopping malls, and other explosion, at home and abroad recently. These accidents make the function of a city ineffective due to the paralyses of electricity and communications net as well as the loss of property and cause people to feel unsecured with accompaniment of a heavy of toll of lives. This research will show evaluation methods of a numerical value of expected average loss space of combustion with the use of probability in order to present potential risk of combustion growth that underground space might cause, and how designer decides a system that enables us to compare and evaluate relatively the effectiveness of measures for preventing burning by calculating the expansion route and the damage size of burning in case of fire.