• Title/Summary/Keyword: 사고모형

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The Development of a Role Play Instruction Model to Increase Higher- order Thinking Ability in Geographical Education (고급사고력 신장을 위한 역할놀이 교수-학습 모형 개발에 관한 현장 연구)

  • Park Seon-heui
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.40 no.1 s.106
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    • pp.109-125
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study is to develop a role play instruction model to increase higher-order thinking abilities in geographical education. This study reviewed the references which included the contents of higher-order thinking abilities, and discussed the educational significance and application of role play instruction model. The developed role play instruction model was applied to four classes in high school in Korea. After applying the model, this study asked some question about the model to the students which engaged in this model. Higher-order thinking essentially means thinking that takes place in the higher-levels of the hierarchy of cognitive processing. Higher-order thinking abilities contain critical thinking abilities, creative thinking abilities, problem solving and decision making abilities, meta-cognition abilities. The role play instruction model is an effective method which can increase higher- order thinking abilities. The questioning to students which engaged in the class of applying to role play instruction model provides feedback about development instruction models to increase higher-order thinking abilities.

Development of the Expected Safety Performance Models for Rural Highway Segments (지방부 국도의 사고예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Ju-Taek;Kim, Do-Hoon;Lee, Dong-Min
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.131-143
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    • 2012
  • The past researches on roadway segment safety estimation focused on intersections, which are the primary traffic accident regions. The past researches on roadway segments, However, analyzed the effects of certain factors on the traffic accident occurrence rate by organizing the individual geometric structures of the roads, and there is still a dearth of researches on the development of a traffic accident estimation model for rural roadway segments. Therefore, this research focused on rural two-lane and multilane roadway segments and developed traffic accident estimation models through the application of statistical techniques. This is required to explain such high frequency of zero counts in the traffic accident data. In this research, it was found that the Hurdle model is more suitable than the Poisson or negative binomial-regression model for explaining the excess zeros case. In addition, main variables were chosen to estimate their effects on traffic accident occurrence at rural roadway segments, and the safety at such rural roadway segments was estimated. In this research, it was assumed that there are different factors that affect the safety at two-way lane and multilane roadway segments, and a traffic accident estimation model was developed by dividing the two-way lane and multilane roadway segments.

Effects of maximum speed limit on Gyeongbu Expressway (경부고속도로 최고제한속도 상향에 따른 교통사고 영향 분석)

  • Song, Yinhua;Seong, Byeongchan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.719-731
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    • 2017
  • In September 2010, the Korea government increased the speed limit on the Gyeongbu Expressway (Cheonan IC.-Yangjae IC) from 100 to 110 km per hour. This paper considers ARIMA-Intervention model to analyze the effects of the speed limit change on the incidences of traffic accidents and injuries. In addition, in order to investigate the effects more clearly, we also analyze the difference between the two lines of Cheonan IC-Yangjae IC and Busan IC-Cheonan IC. As a result, we observe that the numbers of accidents and injuries have increased after the speed limit change. The increases are strikingly distinctive in comparison to other lines (Busan IC-Cheonan IC) where there have been no changes in the maximum speed limit.

The Analysis of Older Driver's Traffic Accident Characteristic at Express-way using Logit model (로짓모델을 이용한 고령운전자 고속도로 교통사고 특성 분석 연구)

  • Park, Jun-Tae;Kim, Young-Suck;Lee, Soo-Beom
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2009
  • Traffic accident by aging drivers is expected to be on the rise rapidly as the number of aging drivers is rising along with the aging trend being progressed. In this study, traffic accident features depending on the classification of aging population and non aging one was evaluated. As a result of this evaluation, effect factors influencing over the aging population was found to be expressed differently from that of the non aging one. Odds ratio between the aging population and non aging one was evaluated through logit model and a model with potential accident probability of the aged drivers was developed. Accident risk of the aged drivers under the condition of curved road, cutting section and moistured road was revealed to be higher than that of the non aging population.

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A study using HGLM on regional difference of the dead due to injuries (손상으로 인한 사망자의 지역별 차이에 대한 HGLM을 이용한 연구)

  • Kim, Kil-Hun;Noh, Maeng-Seok;Ha, Il-Do
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.137-148
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we systematically investigate regional differences of the dead due to injuries in cities, towns and counties about transportation accidents, suicides and fall accidents, which have recently been an important issue of health problems in Korea, The data are from the Annual Report on the Cause of Death Statistics in Korea in 2008. They include the deaths over the age 19 from transportation accidents, suicides and fall accidents with the criterion of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases. Poisson HGLM is applied to estimate the mortality rate under the assumption that the number of deaths follow a Poisson distribution, by considering regions as random effects and by adjusting age, sex and standardized residence tax as fixed effects. Using the results of random effects prediction, the regional differences in cities, counties and towns are marked in disease mapping. The results showed that there were significant regional differences of mortality rates for transportation accidents and suicides, but no significant differences for fall accidents.

Development of Evaluation Model for Black Spot Improvement Priorities by using Emperical Bayes Method (EB기법을 이용한 사고잦은 곳 개선사업 우선순위 판정기법 개발)

  • Jeong, Seong-Bong;Hwang, Bo-Hui;Seong, Nak-Mun;Lee, Seon-Ha
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2009
  • The safety management of a road network comprises four basic inter-related components:identification of sites(black spot) requiring safety investigation, diagnosis of safety problems, selection of feasible treatments for potential treatment candidates, and prioritization of treatments given limited budgets(Persaud, 2001). Identification process of selecting black spot is very important for efficient investigation of sites. In this study, the accident prediction model for EB method was developed by using accident data and geometric conditions of black spots selected from four-leg signalized intersections in In-cheon City for three years (2004-2006). In addition, by comparing the rank nomination technique using EB method to that by using accident counts, we managed to show the problems which the existing method have and the necessity for developing rational prediction model. As a result, in terms of total number of accidents, both the counts predicted by existing non-linear regression model and that by EB method have high good of fitness, but EB method, considering both the accident counts by sites and total number of accident, has better good of fitness than non-linear poison model. According to the result of the comparison of ranks nominated for treatment between two methods, the rank for treatment of almost sites does not change but SeoHae intersection and a few other intersections have significant changes in their rank. This shows that, with the technique proposed in the study, the RTM problem caused by using real accident counts can be overcome.

Factors Influencing Crash Severity by the Types of Bus Transportation Services Using Ordered Probit Models (순서형 프로빗 모형을 이용한 버스 운송사업 유형 별 사고심각도 영향요인 분석)

  • YOON, Sangwon;KHO, Seung-Young;KIM, Dong-Kyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2018
  • Buses, one of the representative public transportation modes, are divided into a vareity of service types according to the purpose of operation, operating distance, and management agencies. Although bus-involved crashes may cause large amount of damage due to the higher number of passengers boarded on a bus, prior research has little focused on crash severity according to bus service types. This study aims to investigate factors influencing crash severity in bus-involved crashes and to present policy implications to reduce crash severity by bus service type. To do this, bus-involved crash data from the Traffic Accident Analysis System (TAAS) during five-year period are used. Ordered probit models for three types of bus service, i.e., city bus, suburban and express buses, and charter buses, are estimated to analyze the factors of accident severity. The results show that there are significant differences of factors affecting crash severity among the types of bus services while speed and road surface influence all the types of buses. In case of local buses, time of day, roadway alignment, and installation of a traffic signal are found to be statistically significant factors. Seat belt and road class have significant effects on injury severity of the intercity and express buses. Chartered buses have time of day, driving experience, seatbelt, traffic signal, and day of week as the significant factors. The results of this study are expected to contribute to the reduction of the crash severity by each bus service type.

Comparative Analysis of Elderly's and Non-elderly's Human Traffic Accident Severity (고령운전자와 비고령운전자의 인적교통사고 심각도 비교분석)

  • Lee, Sang Hyuk;Jeung, Woo Dong;Woo, Yong Han
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 2012
  • This study focused on estimating influential factors of traffic accidents and analyzing traffic accident severity of elderly and non elderly using traffic accident data. In order to reclassify elderly and non elderly traffic accident by a statistical method from entire traffic accident data, multiple discriminant analysis was applied. Also ordered logit model was applied for analyzing traffic accident severities using traffic accident severities as an independent variable and transportation facilities, road conditions and human characteristics as dependent variables. As results of the comparison between elderly and non elderly traffic accident, the traffic accident severity was affected by the age, types of traffic accidents, human characteristics and road conditions as well. Also, transportation facilities and road conditions affected to more elderly traffic accident than non elderly. Therefore, traffic accident severity would be decreased with the improvement of transportation facilities and road conditions for the elderly.

Accident Rate Forecasting Model by Using Speed on Freeway (속도를 이용한 고속도로 구간 사고율 예측 모형)

  • Jeong, Eun-Bi;O, Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.103-111
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    • 2011
  • The speed is one of the significant factors affecting accident occurrence. In particular, freeway accidents are highly associated with the speed because vehicles travel on the freeway at higher speed leading to greater potential of severer injury. Efforts attempting to relating speed with accident occurrence have not been significantly made in Korea. The objective of this study is to model the relationship between speed and accident rate on freeways. Loop detector data and accident data obtained from a stretch of Kyungboo freeway during the recent five years, 2005-2009, were used to establish the model. Multiple linear regression analyses showed that median, minimum and standard deviation of speed were contributing variables in the model. The statistical significance identified by the analyses supports the feasibility of the model in evaluating various transportation policies and operations strategies in terms of traffic safety.

A Study on Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Operational and Modelling Parameters for Feedwater Line Break Analysis (급수관 파열사고 해석에 대한 운전변수와 모형변수의 불확실성 및 민감도 연구)

  • Lee, Seung-Hyuk;Kim, Jin-Soo;Chang, Soon-Heung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.10-21
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    • 1987
  • Uncertainty analysis of the FLB accident is performed for KNU-1 using the response surface methodology and Monte Carlo simulation. The FLB analyses using the RELAP4/Mod6 were performed a number of times to generate the data base for the uncertainty analysis, along with the EM calculation for comparison purpose. Two kinds of input sets are utilized for response surface method to investigate and compare the effects of the uncertainty of input variables on the RCS peak pressure following a FLB. The first set is composed of six major plant operational parameters and the second set is composed of five major modelling parameters. It is found through the analysis of results that the uncertainties of modelling parameters have more influence on the RCS peak pressure than the uncertainties of plant operational parameters and that the extra margin of 9% of peak pressure is gained. And one of the assumptions of EM calculation, which is usually accepted as conservative is found to be erroneous, that is, the initial core inlet temperature is found to act negatively on the RCS pressure following a FLB.

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