The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics (응용통계연구)

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
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Effects of maximum speed limit on Gyeongbu Expressway

경부고속도로 최고제한속도 상향에 따른 교통사고 영향 분석

  • Song, Yinhua (Department of Applied Statistics, Chung-Ang University) ;
  • Seong, Byeongchan (Department of Applied Statistics, Chung-Ang University)
  • 송은화 (중앙대학교 응용통계학과) ;
  • 성병찬 (중앙대학교 응용통계학과)
  • Received : 2017.07.27
  • Accepted : 2017.08.21
  • Published : 2017.10.31
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Abstract

In September 2010, the Korea government increased the speed limit on the Gyeongbu Expressway (Cheonan IC.-Yangjae IC) from 100 to 110 km per hour. This paper considers ARIMA-Intervention model to analyze the effects of the speed limit change on the incidences of traffic accidents and injuries. In addition, in order to investigate the effects more clearly, we also analyze the difference between the two lines of Cheonan IC-Yangjae IC and Busan IC-Cheonan IC. As a result, we observe that the numbers of accidents and injuries have increased after the speed limit change. The increases are strikingly distinctive in comparison to other lines (Busan IC-Cheonan IC) where there have been no changes in the maximum speed limit.

본 논문에서는 개입모형(intervention model)을 이용하여 경부고속도로(천안IC-양재IC) 구간의 최고 제한속도 상향 조정으로 인한 교통사고 발생의 영향을 분석하고자 하였다. 또한 천안IC-양재IC 구간과 부산IC-천안IC 구간의 차이를 이용하여 제한속도의 상향조정 효과를 분석하여 외부적 요인의 영향을 고려하지 않을 경우 제한속도 조정으로 인한 교통사고의 변화를 분석하였다. 그 결과, 제한속도 상향 후 교통 사고발생건수와 사고부상자수는 모두 증가하는 추세이며 특히 최고속도가 예전과 변화 없는 구간에 비교할 때 그 증가 추세는 더 심각한 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

References

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