• Title/Summary/Keyword: 비정상계열

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A Stochastic Simulation Model for the Precipitation Amounts of Hourly Precipitation Series (시간강수계열의 강수량 모의발생을 위한 추계학적 모형)

  • Lee, Jung-Sik;Lee, Jae-joon;Park, Jong-Young
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.763-777
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    • 2002
  • The objective of this study is to develop computer simulation model that produces precipitation patterns from stochastic model. The hourly precipitation process consists of the precipitation occurrence and precipitation amounts. In this study, an event cluster model developed by Lee and Lee(2002) is used to describe the occurrence process of events, and the hourly precipitation amounts within each event is described by a nonstationary form of a first-order autoregressive process. The complete stochastic model for hourly precipitation is fitted to historical precipitation data by estimating the model parameters. An analysis of historical and simulated hourly precipitation data for Seoul indicates that the stochastic model preserves many of the features of historical precipitation. The autocorrelation coefficients of the historical and simulated data are nearly identical except for lags more than about 3 hours. The precipitation intensity, duration, marginal distributions, and conditional distributions for event characteristics for the historical and simulated data showed in general good agreement with each other.

Analysis of Generalized Extreme Value Distribution to Estimate Storm Sewer Capacity Under Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 하수관거시설의 계획우수량 산정을 위한 일반극치분포 분석)

  • Lee, Hak-Pyo;Ryu, Jae-Na;Yu, Soon-Yu;Park, Kyoo-Hong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.321-329
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    • 2012
  • In this study, statistical analysis under both stationary and non-stationary climate was conducted for rainfall data measured in Seoul. Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and Gumbel distribution were used for the analysis. Rainfall changes under the non-stationary climate were estimated by applying time variable (t) to location parameter (${\xi}$). Rainfall depths calculated in non-stationary climate increased by 1.1 to 6.2mm and 1.0 to 4.6mm for the GEV distribution and gumbel distribution respectively from those stationary forms. Changes in annual maximum rainfall were estimated with rate of change in the location parameter (${\xi}1{\cdot}t$), and temporal changes of return period were predicted. This was also available for re-evaluating the current sewer design return period. Design criteria of sewer system was newly suggested considering life expectance of the system as well as temporal changes in the return period.

A Study of Structural Response of Pipes due to Internal Gaseous Detonation of Hydrogen- and Hydrogen-Air Mixtures (수소와 탄화수소 계열 연료의 비정상 연소에 의한 파이프 변형 연구)

  • Kim, Dae-Hyun;Yoh, Jai-Ick
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.36 no.11
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    • pp.1094-1103
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    • 2008
  • A fuel specific detonation wave in a pipe propagates with a predictable wave velocity. This internal detonation wave speed determines the level of flexural wave excitation of pipes and the possibility of resonant response leading to a large displacement. In this paper, we present particular solutions of displacements and the resonance conditions for internally loaded pipe structures. These analytical results are compared to numerical simulations obtained using a hydrocode(multi-material blast wave analysis tool). We expect to identify potential explosion hazards in the general power industries.

Discrimination between trend and difference stationary processes based on adaptive lasso (Adaptive lasso를 이용하여 추세-정상시계열과 차분-정상시계열을 판별하는 방법에 대한 연구)

  • Na, Okyoung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.723-738
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we study a method to discriminate between trend stationary and difference stationary processes. Since a crucial ingredient of this discrimination is to determine the existence of unit root, we can use a unit root testing strategy. So, we introduce a discrimination based on unit root testing and propose the method using the adaptive lasso. Our Monte Carlo simulation experiments show that the adaptive lasso improves the discrimination accuracy when the process is trend stationary, but has lower accuracy than unit root strategy where the process is difference stationary.

Numerical Study on Aerodynamic Characteristics of Flapping-Airfoil in Low Reynolds Number Flows (저 레이놀즈수 유동에서 Flapping-Airfoil의 수치적 공력특성 연구)

  • Lee, Jung-Sang;Kim, Chong-Am;Rho, Oh-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.44-52
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    • 2002
  • Aerodynamic characteristics of a flapping airfoil in low Reynolds number flows are numerically studied using the unsteady, incompressible Navier-Stokes flow solver with a two-equation turbulence model. For more efficient computation of unsteady flows over flapping airfoil, the flow solver is parallel-implemented by MPI programming method Unsteady computations are performed for low Reynolds number flows over a NACA four-digit series airfoils. Effects of pitching, plunging, and flapping motion with different reduced frequency, amplitude, thickness and camber on aerodynamic characteristics are investigated. Present computational results yield a better agreement in thrust at various reduced frequency with experimental data.

A Steady Method of Damping Coefficient Prediction for Axisymmetric Projectiles (축대칭 발사체의 감쇠계수 계산을 위한 정상 해법)

  • Park, Soo-Hyung;Kwon, Jang-Hyuk;Yu, Yung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.34 no.11
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2006
  • A steady prediction method is presented to compute dynamic damping coefficients for axisymmetric projectiles. Viscous flow analysis is essential to the steady method using a zero-spin coning motion in the inertial coordinate frame. The present method is applied to compute the pitching moment and the pitch-damping moment coefficients for the Army-Navy Spinning Rocket. The results are in good agreement with the parabolized Navier-Stokes data, range data, and unsteady prediction data. Predictions for Secant-Ogive-Cylinder configurations are performed to investigate effects of afterbody geometries. To investigate the geometrical effect and flow physics, the longitudinal developments of the coefficients are examined in detail.

Case Study on the Explosive Demolition of Steel Truss Bridge using Charge Container for Cutting Structural Steel (강재 절단용 장약용기를 이용한 철골 교량 발파해체 시공사례)

  • Park, Hoon;Suk, Chul-Gi;Noh, You-Song
    • Explosives and Blasting
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.20-33
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    • 2018
  • A locally damaged structure is a structure that cannot be reused due to having parts that have lost their structural function as a result of abnormal load across the interior or exterior of the structure. The causes of the abnormal load occurrences can be classified into natural disaster and artificial disaster. Locally damaged structures caused by this abnormal load have risk factors that may lead to the possibility of additional secondary collapses, so such structures require immediate and complete dismantling. The case presented in this study involves the application of explosive demolition to a steel truss structured bridge in the Philippines that was damaged due to construction failures and the hurricane. Although shaped charges were needed in explosive demolitions, difficulties in locally obtaining such material. So, we made a charge container to charging of emulsion explosive during the explosive demolition. The explosive demolition resulted in the vertical free fall of the mid-section of the bridge and the free fall rotating of the both end section of the bridge. The neighboring posts and bridge piers did not show signs of damages, while post-demolition fragmentation of removed parts was found to be satisfactory.

Analysis and Forecast of Non-Stationary Monthly Steam Flow (비정상 월유량 시계열의 해석과 예측)

  • 이재형;선우중호
    • Water for future
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.54-61
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    • 1978
  • An attemption of synthesizing and forecasting of monthly river flow has been made by employing a linear stochastic difference equation model. As one of the linear stochestic difference equation model, an ARIMA Type is tested to find the suitability of the model to the monthly river flows. On the assumption of the stationary covariacne of differenced monthly river flows the model is identrfield and is evaluated so that the residuale have the minimum variance. Finally a test is performed to finld the residerals beings White noise. Monthly river flows at six stations in Han River Basin are applied for case studies. It was found that the difference operator is a good measure of forecasting the monthly river flow.

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Analysis of added resistance of a ship advancing in waves (파랑중에서 전진하는 선박의 부가저항 해석)

  • 이호영;곽영기
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 1997
  • This paper presents theoretical formulations and numerical computations for predicting first-and second-order hydrodynamic force on a ship advvancing in waves. The theoretical formulation leads to linearized radiation and diffration problems solving the three-dimensional Green function integral equations over the mean wetted body surface. Green function representing a translating and pulsating source potantial for infinite water depth is used. In order to solve integral equations for three dimentional flows using Green function efficiently, the Hoff's method is adopted for numerical calculation of the Green function. Based on the first-order solution, the mean seconder-order forces and moments are obtained by directly integrating second-order pressure over the mean wetted body surface. The calculated items are carried out for analyzing the seakeeping characteristics of Series 60. The calculated items are hydrodynamic coefficients, wave exciting forces, frequency response functions and addd resistance in waves.

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Time Series Modelling of Air Quality in Korea: Long Range Dependence or Changes in Mean? (한국의 미세먼지 시계열 분석: 장기종속 시계열 혹은 비정상 평균변화모형?)

  • Baek, Changryong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.987-998
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    • 2013
  • This paper considers the statistical characteristics on the air quality (PM10) of Korea collected hourly in 2011. PM10 in Korea exhibits very strong correlations even for higher lags, namely, long range dependence. It is power-law tailed in marginal distribution, and generalized Pareto distribution successfully captures the thicker tail than log-normal distribution. However, slowly decaying autocorrelations may confuse practitioners since a non-stationary model (such as changes in mean) can produce spurious long term correlations for finite samples. We conduct a statistical testing procedure to distinguish two models and argue that the high persistency can be explained by non-stationary changes in mean model rather than long range dependent time series models.