• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.12 s.173
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• pp.997-1012
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• 2006

We have presented a nonparametric stochastic approach for the SOI(Southern Oscillation Index) series that used nonlinear methodology called Nonlinear AutoRegressive(NAR) based on conditional kernel density function and CAFPE(Corrected Asymptotic Final Prediction Error) lag selection. The fitted linear AR model represents heteroscedasticity, and besides, a BDS(Brock - Dechert - Sheinkman) statistics is rejected. Hence, we applied NAR model to the SOI series. We can identify the lags 1, 2 and 4 are appropriate one, and estimated conditional mean function. There is no autocorrelation of residuals in the Portmanteau Test. However, the null hypothesis of normality and no heteroscedasticity is rejected in the Jarque-Bera Test and ARCH-LM Test, respectively. Moreover, the lag selection for conditional standard deviation function with CAFPE provides lags 3, 8 and 9. As the results of conditional standard deviation analysis, all I.I.D assumptions of the residuals are accepted. Particularly, the BDS statistics is accepted at the 95% and 99% significance level. Finally, we split the SOI set into a sample for estimating themodel and a sample for out-of-sample prediction, that is, we conduct the one-step ahead forecasts for the last 97 values (15%). The NAR model shows a MSEP of 0.5464 that is 7% lower than those of the linear model. Hence, the relevance of the NAR model may be proved in these results, and the nonparametric NAR model is encouraging rather than a linear one to reflect the nonlinearity of SOI series.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.458-468
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• 2019

This research attempted to estimate monthly sales of food and beverage at the passenger terminal of Incheon int'l airport from June of 2015 to December 2020. This paper used ARIMA-Intervention model which can estimate the change of the sales amount suggesting the predicted monthly food and beverage sales revenue. The intervention variable was travel-ban policy against south Korea from P.R. China since July 2016 to December 2017 due to THAAD in south Korea. According to ARIMA, it was found normal predicted sales amount showed the slow growth increase rate until 2020 due to the effect of intervened variable. However, the monthly food sales in July and August 2019 was 20.3 and 21.2 billion KRW respectively. Each amount would increase even more in 2020 and the amount would increase to 21.4 and 22.1 billion KRW. The sales amount in 2019 would be 7.7 and 8.1 billion KRW and climb up 7.9 and 8.2 billion KRW in 2020. It was expected LCC passengers tend to spend more money for F&B at airport due to no meal or drink service of LCC or the paid-in meal and beverage service of LCC. The growth of sales of food and beverate will be accompanied with the growth of LCC according to estimated data.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.419-425
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• 2010

Kernel machine learning is gaining a lot of popularities in analyzing large or high dimensional nonlinear data. We use this technique to estimate a GARCH model for predicting the conditional volatility of stock market returns. GARCH models are usually estimated using maximum likelihood (ML) procedures, assuming that the data are normally distributed. In this paper, we show that GARCH models can be estimated using kernel machine learning and that kernel machine has a higher predicting ability than ML methods and support vector machine, when estimating volatility of financial time series data with fat tail.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.99-109
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• 2019

We compared the confidence intervals of estimators using various bootstrap methods for a Random Coefficient Autoregressive(RCA) model. We consider a Quasi score estimator and M-Quasi score estimator using Huber, Tukey, Andrew and Hempel functions as bounded functions, that do not have required assumption of distribution. A standard bootstrap method, percentile bootstrap method, studentized bootstrap method and hybrid bootstrap method were proposed for the estimations, respectively. In a simulation study, we compared the asymptotic confidence intervals of the Quasi score and M-Quasi score estimator with the bootstrap confidence intervals using the four bootstrap methods when the underlying distribution of the error term of the RCA model follows the normal distribution, the contaminated normal distribution and the double exponential distribution, respectively.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.493-503
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• 2014

A hierarchical classification scheme, which can reduce the spectral ambiguity and also reflect crop cultivation patterns from past land-cover maps, is presented for the purpose of the early production of crop classification maps in large-scale crop areas. Specifically, the effects of mixed pixels are minimized not only by applying a hierarchical classification approach based on different spectral characteristics from crop growth cycles, but also by considering temporal contextual information derived from past crop cultivation patterns. The applicability of the presented classification scheme was evaluated by a case study of Iowa State in USA with time-series MODIS 250 m Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) data sets and past Cropland Data Layers(CDLs). Corn and soybean, which are major crop types in the study area and also display spectral similarity, could be properly classified by applying different classification stages and accounting for past crop cultivation patterns. The classification result by the presented scheme showed increases of minimum 7.68%p and maximum 20.96%p in overall accuracy, compared with one based on purely spectral information. In addition, the combination of temporal contextual information during classification was less affected by the number of NDVI data sets and the best overall accuracy of 86.63% was achieved. Thus, it is expected that this classification scheme can be effectively used for the early production of large-area crop classification maps in major feed-grain importing countries.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.697-710
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• 2021

Relative error prediction is preferred over ordinary prediction methods when relative/percentile errors are regarded as important, especially in econometrics, software engineering and government official statistics. The relative error prediction techniques have been developed in linear/nonlinear regression, nonparametric regression using kernel regression smoother, and stationary time series models. However, random effect models have not been used in relative error prediction. The purpose of this article is to extend relative error prediction to some of generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) with panel data, which is the random effect models based on gamma, lognormal, or inverse gaussian distribution. For better understanding, the real auto insurance data is used to predict the claim size, and the best predictor and the best relative error predictor are comparatively illustrated.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.63-87
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• 2010

The purpose of this paper is to measure the efficiency of Korean container terminals by using SFA(Stochastic Frontier Analysis). Inputs[Number of Employee, Quay Length, Container Terminal Area, Number of Gantry Crane], and output[TEU] are used for 3 years(2002,2003, and 2004) for 8 Korean container terminals by applying both SFA and DEA models. Empirical main results are as follows: First, Null hypothesis that technical inefficiency is not existed is rejected and in the trasnslog model, the estimate is significant. Second, time-series models show the significant results. Third, average technical efficiency of Korean container terminals are 73.49% in Cobb-Douglas model, and 79.04% in translog model. Fourth, to enhance the technical efficiency, Korean container terminals should increase the handling amount of TEUs. Fifth, both SFA and DEA models have the high Spearman ranking of correlation coefficients(84.45%). The main policy implication based on the findings of this study is that the manager of port investment and management of Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs in Korea should introduce the SFA with DEA models for measuring the efficiency of Korean ports and terminals.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.83-97
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• 2000

The traffic management schemes through traffic signal control and information provision could be effective when the link-level data and trip-level data were used simultaneously in analysis Procedures. But, because the trip-level data. such as origin, destination and departure time, can not be obtained through the existing surveillance systems directly. It is needed to estimate it using the link-level data which can be obtained easily. Therefore the objective of this study is to develop the model to estimate O-D demand using only the link flows in highway network as a real time. The methodological approaches in this study are kalman filer, least-square method and normalized least-square method. The kalman filter is developed in the basis of the bayesian update. The normalized least-square method is developed in the basis of the least-square method and the natural constraint equation. These three models were experimented using two kinds of simulated data. The one has two abrupt changing Patterns in traffic flow rates The other is a 24 hours data that has three Peak times in a day Among these models, kalman filer has Produced more accurate and adaptive results than others. Therefore it is seemed that this model could be used in traffic demand management. control, travel time forecasting and dynamic assignment, and so forth.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.831-841
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• 2017

The irrational number ${\pi}$ is defined as the ratio of circumference of a circle to its radius and always becomes constant. This article does Monte Carlo approximation of its value using the famous Buffon's needle experiment and shows that its convergence is not always proportional to the sample size. We also do Monte Carlo simulations to see the convergence of the computed ${\pi}$ values from the random walk series with independent normal increment. Finally we apply the theoretical derivation to various financial time series data such as KOSPI, stock prices of Korean big firms, global stock indices and major foreign exchange rates. The historical data shows that log transformed data random walk process but most of their first lagged data don't follow a normal distribution. More importantly the computed value from the ratio of the regression coefficient ${\pi}$ tend to converge a constant, unfortunately not ${\pi}$. Using this result we could doubt on the efficient market hypothesis, and relate the degree of the hypothesis with the amount of deviation of the estimated ${\pi}$ values.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.67 no.4
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• pp.203-226
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• 2015

It is widely accepted that one of the main challenges of the 21st century welfare state is how to harmonize 'Old Welfare, Old Risks' which mostly consists of income maintenance programs with 'New Welfare, New Risks' which actively advances social services. It is in this regard that this paper attempts to define the relationship between the income maintenance programs and social services. For this purpose, it analyses social expenditure of 18 OECD countries during 1980-2006, and subsequently attests, if there is a trade-off relationship between the two, using correlation and Granger panel analysis. It duly concludes that the trade-off relationship between the two is not valid in that the two are better understood as a complementary relationship, not substitute relationship.