• Title/Summary/Keyword: 비용추정식

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An analysis on the effects of higher power rates on supply price and power savings for Korean manufacturing sector (산업 전력요금 인상의 공급가격 및 전력수요 절감 효과 분석:국내 제조업 부문을 대상으로)

  • Lee, Myunghun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.43-65
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, we test for allocative efficiency of productive inputs including electricity and measure the divergence between the actual and optimal level of electricity for the chemical products, which is a relatively highly electricity-intensive sector in Korean manufacturing industries, by estimating a shadow cost function. Supposing cost minimization subject to market prices was achieved, we derive the price elasticities of demand for each input and simulate the impact of a 10% increase in power rate on its demand and supply price by estimating jointly a cost function with an inverse supply relation. The null hypothesis of allocative efficiency of inputs is rejected over the period 1982-2006. On average, electricity is used more than optimal level by 98% per year. The demand for electricity decreases by 11.4%, and supply price, on average, falls by 0.08%, other things being equal.

Process for Risk Severity Estimation of Weapon System Development Project using Parametric Estimation Method/Linear Kalman Filter (모수 추정기법/선형 칼만 필터를 이용한 무기체계개발 프로젝트 위험 요소의 영향도 추정 프로세스)

  • Lee, Seung-Yup
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.567-574
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    • 2018
  • Risk management is a method to 1) identify risks that can adversely affect the cost, schedule, and target achievement performance of a system development project, and 2) manage the identified risks based on the severity and likelihood assigned to each risk item. Risk management is applicable to various fields, since it can manage the cost/schedule and effectively guides accomplishing the target performance by identifying and managing the risks in advance, which necessitates many concurrent studies. This paper proposes a procedure to estimate the severity value for a risk item using a Kalman filter. It is assumed that the severity can be expressed as an equation consisting of cost/schedule loss during the risk event. A linear Kalman filter is used to reduce the error between the true and estimated values, which can eventually save resources spent on the risk management procedure. A simulation test case was conducted to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method.

A Estimation Model of The Fuel Consumption Based on The Vehicle Speed Pattern (차량 속도패턴에 따른 연료소모량 관계식 산정)

  • Won, Min-Su;Gang, Gyeong-Pyo;Kim, Jeong-Wan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.65-71
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    • 2011
  • It is practically hard to measure vehicle fuel consumption required to evaluate the energy-related governmental policies and traffic management strategies; the existing methods are too simplified due to the limited field data available. Existing methods are even unable to reflect the amount of fuel consumed when vehicles accelerate and decelerate, and such technical limitations have reduced the quality of the policy evaluation. This study proposes a new fuel consumption model that simultaneously considers the effects of both cruising speed and acceleration/deceleration of vehicles. A new fuel consumption model was developed based on the simulation data generated by AVL Cruise, a vehicle simulation program. The estimated by the proposed model was compared against the one from the existing method. Comparison results showed that the proposed model provided much reliable estimate (fuel consumption) than the other did.

A Green House Gas Emission Estimation Based on Gravity Model and Its Elasticity (중력모형을 이용한 온실가스 배출량추정 및 탄력성분석)

  • Im, Yong-Taek
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2011
  • Many policies, such as transit-oriented development, encouraged use of bicycle and pedestrian, reduction of green house gas (GHG) and etc., have been deployed to support transport sustainability. Although various studies regarding GHG were presented, no one has yet adequately explained the behavior of travelers. This paper proposes a GHG emission model by highlighting its sensitivity, elasticity with regard to such travel cost as travel time, travel fare, and GHG pricing, introduced to reduce the amount of GHG in transportation system. For better estimation of GHG, the proposed model adopts (1) a production-constrained gravity model and (2) the travel distance from the origin and the destination (OD). The gravity model has a merit that it considers travel pattern between OD pairs. The model was tested with an example, and the promising results confirmed its validation and applications.

Estimation of Net Longwave Radiation in South Korea using Stefan Boltzmann Equation (대기복사식을 이용한 남한지역 순 장파복사량의 추정)

  • Kim, Hyun Woo;Hwang, Kyotaek;Choi, Minha
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.219-219
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    • 2011
  • 순 장파복사량은 지표면으로 입사되는 하강 장파복사량(Downward Longwave Radiation, $R_{ld}$)과 지표면에서 반사되는 상승 장파복사량(Upward Longwave Radiation, $R_{lu}$)의 차이로 정의되는데 이는 에너지 수지 및 농업기상 연구의 중요한 주제 중 하나로서 다루어져 온 순복사량의 중요한 요소이다. 일반적으로 $R_{lu}$의 경우 지표면 온도와 방사율(emissivity)를 이용하여 산출되므로 정확히 추정이 가능하나, $R_{ld}$의 경우 대기 최상층에서 관측되는 방사량과 지표면 근처의 방사량을 함께 고려해야 하므로 실측이 어렵다. $R_{ld}$는 야간 복사계(pyrgeometer)를 이용하여 직접적으로 측정할 수 있지만 관측기기 자체가 구비되어있는 관측소가 적어 매우 드물게 이용된다. 또한 단파 복사 에너지 측정 기기에 비해 비용이 많이들고 종종 관측값이 큰 오차를 가지고 있기 때문에 실무에 적용하기 힘든 단점이 있다. 따라서 기상 관측소에서 얻어지는 증기압과 온도 관측치를 물리식, 경험식 등에 적용하여 산정하게 된다. 현재는 $R_{ld}$의 추정은 관측된 방사량간의 관계를 나타내는 경험식을 기반으로 지표면 근처의 대기 온도와 습도를 이용하여 산출하는 방법이 널리 사용되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 증발산 산정 알고리즘 개발의 시발점으로써 $R_{ld}$를 먼저 구하고 $R_{lu}$를 구하였다. 신뢰성 높은 방법을 이용하여 $R_{ld}$를 구하게 되면 정확도 높은 $R_N$을 구하는 데 기여할 수 있으며, 궁극적으로 보다 정확한 증발산을 산정할 수 있게 된다. $R_{ld}$는 일반적으로 clear sky 조건 하에서의 복사 에너지 플럭스($R_{ldc}$)를 구한 후 구름의 양에 따라 보정한다. 하강 장파복사량의 경우 널리 사용되는 공식 중 하나인 Brutsaert의 공식을 사용하였다. 광릉, 해남에 위치한 플럭스 타워지점에서 실측된 기온과 실제 수증기압을 입력인자로 사용하여 지점별 $R_{ldc}$를 먼저 구하고 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) 영상자료를 이용하여 검증한 뒤 최종적으로 남한지역을 대상으로 순 장파복사량 지도를 작성하였다. 이를 위해 MODIS 07 대기 프로파일 산출물(Atmospheric Profile Product)중 기온 및 이슬점온도를 추출하여 산정식의 입력자료로서 사용하였다. 상승 장파복사량의 경우 MODIS 11 지표면 온도 산출물(Land Surface Temperature product)를 이용하여 산정하였다. 이는 남한 지역의 증발산량 추정 및 에너지 수지 연구를 위한 중요한 기본 자료로서 유용하게 사용될 수 있으리라 사료된다.

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A Study on the Minimum Production Cost of Welded Built-up Beams (용접 조립보의 최소 생산 비용에 관한 연구)

  • Chang-Doo Jang;Seung-Il Seo
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.154-164
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    • 1994
  • In this study, to find an economical production method which yields welded built-up beams with high quality, simulation techniques and optimization method are used. At first, fabrication variables such as welding current, voltage and speed and heated depth and breadth are selected and fabrication cost of a built-up beam is expressed by these parameters, which is optimized under the constraints. As advanced studies, total production cost including the fabrication cost and the material cost of the beam is expressed by the fabrication and design variables, and optimized with the design constraints by the class rules. In addition, assuming that heating for straightening is impossible. the optimization method of multi-objective functions based on the weighting method is applied to obtain the compromised optimal solutions of the total production cost and the welding deformation.

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A Study on the Economic Feasibility of Constructing the Maritime and Ocean Digital Library (해양 전문 디지털도서관 건립의 경제적 타당성에 관한 기초연구)

  • Oh, Yong-Sik;Hwang, Jin-Yong;Lee, Yong-Jae
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.175-200
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    • 2016
  • As a part of the feasibility study of constructing the Maritime and Ocean Digital Library, we focused to examine the basic economic feasibility of the library in this study. In order to achieve the purpose, we analyzed related governmental policies, investigated the demand of the digital library, and tested the economic feasibility. As the tools of economic test, we calculated the size of benefit by Contingent Valuation Method, and estimated the Benefit/Cost Ratio, Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return. As the result, we could get an assessment of positive economic feasibility mainly from the quite high level of WTP for the Maritime and Ocean Digital Library.

Calibration of a Network Link Travel Cost Function with the Harmony Search Algorithm (화음탐색법을 이용한 교통망 링크 통행비용함수 정산기법 개발)

  • Kim, Hyun Myung;Hwang, Yong Hwan;Yang, In Chul
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 2012
  • Some previous studies adopted a method statistically based on the observed traffic volumes and travel times to estimate the parameters. Others tried to find an optimal set of parameters to minimize the gap between the observed and estimated traffic volumes using, for instance, a combined optimization model with a traffic assignment model. The latter is frequently used in a large-scale network that has a capability to find a set of optimal parameter values, but its appropriateness has never been demonstrated. Thus, we developed a methodology to estimate a set of parameter values of BPR(Bureau of Public Road) function using Harmony Search (HS) method. HS was developed in early 2000, and is a global search method proven to be superior to other global search methods (e.g. Genetic Algorithm or Tabu search). However, it has rarely been adopted in transportation research arena yet. The HS based transportation network calibration algorithm developed in this study is tested using a grid network, and its outcomes are compared to those from incremental method (Incre) and Golden Section (GS) method. It is found that the HS algorithm outperforms Incre and GS for copying the given observed link traffic counts, and it is also pointed out that the popular optimal network calibration techniques based on an objective function of traffic volume replication are lacking the capability to find appropriate free flow travel speed and ${\alpha}$ value.

Planned Depot Maintenance Interval Decision for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle through Reliability and Maintainability Based Simulation and Operating & Support Cost Analysis (신뢰도 및 정비도 기반 시뮬레이션과 운영유지 비용분석을 통한 무인항공기의 계획창정비 주기결정)

  • Sang Yeob Lee;Jun Hyun Son
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2023
  • This research sought to determine the optimal cycle of Planned Depot Maintenance (PDM) for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), and PDM through Reliability and Maintainability-based simulation and Operating and Support (O&S) cost analysis using Reliability and Maintainability analysis results. The effectiveness of the PDM was verified economically, and the optimal PDM interval that balances UAV effective operations and sustaining engineering costs was presented.

A Study for cost of road traffic accident taken offender's PTSD in consideration (교통사고 가해자의 외상 후 스트레스 장애를 고려한 도로교통사고 비용 연구)

  • Jang, Seok-Yong;Jeong, Heon-Yeong;Go, Sang-Seon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.17-29
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    • 2010
  • The main objective of this study is to consider the necessity of introducing owner expenses in estimating the cost of traffic accidents, as is done in some advanced countries. It is known as "owner cost" in the U.S, "enterprise project price" in Japan, and "human cost" in the U.K. To achieve this, the seriousness and present state of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) of traffic accident offenders, which is generally not observed when traffic accidents occur, are evaluated; countermeasures reflecting personal characteristics are prepared according to degree of affliction. The results could be summarized as follows. First, the present condition and seriousness of PTSD from traffic accidents that has been estimated only within the accidents offenders are evaluated through a survey. Second, a distinction analysis model is developed. 'Insomnia caused by accidents' and 'mental daunting in accident situations or similar ones during driving' are chosen as the variables of the discriminant. Third, as a result of the construction of an Ordered Probit Model to comprehend the seriousness of PTSD, the variables turns out in the order of 'seriousness of the most damaged victim, 'nightmare about the accident', 'insomnia experience', 'mental daunting during driving', 'gender', and 'major driving area'. Finally, the cures reflecting characteristics of gender and region are suggested, which are preferred for degree of seriousness of PTSD. The analysis shows that the method to minimize the damage, such as decline of work efficiency, by moving ahead the rehabilitation of the offenders would be suggested and this could minimize the direct and indirect damages that could happen to business owners for whom the drivers work.