• 제목/요약/키워드: 비용추정론

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Underlying Values of Real-time Traffic Information on Variable Message Sign Using Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) (조건부가치추정법을 이용한 VMS교통정보의 기본가치 추정연구)

  • Lee, Gyeong-A;Kim, Jun-Gi;O, Seong-Ho;Lee, Yeong-In
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2011
  • In the benefits of ITS, there are intangible gains from real-time traffic information as well as classical gains such as travel time saving. These intangible gains are difficult to be estimated by existing transportation investment appraisal commonly used in SOC investment. The major reason is not because of the absence of methodology but because of the absence of generalized values of particular benefits from real time traffic information. This research explores the value of real-time traffic information on VMS that is the most representative of ITS services, by using CVM with Double Bounded Dichotomous Choice Question. Willingness-To-Pay (WTP) functions of drivers are built with survival functions using various types of probability distribution functions such as Exponential, Log-logistic, and Weibull functions. The results reveal that Log-logistic distribution is the most appropriate distribution model to estimate WTP, and the estimated coefficients are stable through LR (Likelihood Ratio) test. For the further study, it is recommended to perform statistical tests of temporal and spatial transferability that is not examined in this research due to the lack of data.

Environmental Improvement Effect and Social Benefit of Environmental Impact Assessment: Focusing on Thermal Power Plant (환경영향평가를 통한 화력발전소의 환경개선 효과와 사회적 편익)

  • Kang, Eugene;Kim, Yumi;Moon, Nankyoung
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.322-333
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    • 2018
  • This study was carried out to measure atmospheric environmental improvement effect and estimate its social benefit of thermal power plants through Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for quantitative analysis about operational performances of EIA. In this study, 'EIA outcome' is defined as whether or not the system is implemented, therefore, environmental standard to be followed by each project and consultation contents were compared. In total 60 cases of thermal power plant construction projects that have been consulted over the past 10 years since 2010, major air pollutants have been significantly reduced after the implementation of EIA. The $PM_{10}$ reduced annual 3,745 tons, $NO_2$ by 74,569 tons, and $SO_2$ by 37,647 tons, which were estimated at approximately 240 billion won~5 trillion 967 billion won per year for social benefit. This means the total cost of power plant operations will be cut to 7 trillion 192 billion won~178 trillion 994 billion won over a 30-year period. The reduced amount of air pollutants emitted by energy generation facilities across the country is worth 50%, and its economic value is larger than the annual Current Health Expenditure in Korea. This is meant by the fact that all projects are subject to uniform criteria under the existing relevant regulation, but that each project plans are optimized according to the characteristics of target areas and projects through the process of EIA.

Freight Demand Analysis for Multimodal Shipments (복합수단운송을 고려한 화물통행수요분석 방안)

  • Hong, Da-Hee;Park, Min-Choul;Lee, Jung-Yub;Hahn, Jin-Seok;Kang, Jae-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.85-94
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    • 2012
  • Modern freight transport pursues not only the reduction of logistic costs but also aims at green logistics and efficient shipments. In order to accomplish these goals, various policies regarding the multimodal shipment and stopover to logistic facilities have widely been made. Such situation requires changes in existing methods for analyzing freight demand. However, the reality is that a reliable freight demand forecast is limited, since in the transport research field there is no robust freight demand model that can accommodate transshipments at logistic facilities. This study suggested a novel method to analyze freight demand, which can consider transshipments in multi-modal networks. Also, the applicability of this method was discussed through an example test.

A Quantitative Assessment Model of Private Information Breach (기업의 개인정보 유출로 인한 경제적 피해규모 산출방법)

  • Han, Chang-Hee;Chai, Seung-Wan;Yoo, Byung-Joon;Ahn, Dae-Hwan;Park, Chae-Hee
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.17-31
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    • 2011
  • Damage caused by private information breach causes serious problems and huge social losses. In order to make a better policy that prevents society from suffering from the damage, we have to know about the actual size of damage. So it is needed to develop a quantitative model of private information breach that helps catching the more accurate size of damage. In our study, we suggest a method which calculate not only the costs of damage from firms' perspective but also those from individual and social perspectives. In this process, we refer to methods adopted by JNSA(Japan Network Security Association) and Ponemon Research Institue and modify it with considering our current situation. Also we try to make a new model by using new methods(web traffic analysis, survey, indirect comparison, etc.) and verify it with theories and methods from econometrics, cost accounting and theory of producer.

A three-dimensional patent evaluation model that considers the factors for calculating the internal and external value of a patent: Arrhenius chemical reaction kinetics-based patent lifespan prediction (특허의 내적.외적 가치산정요인을 고려한 입체적 특허평가모델: 아레니우스 화학반응속도론 기반의 특허수명예측)

  • Choi, Yong Muk;LEE, JAEWON;Cho, Daemyeong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.113-132
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    • 2021
  • This study is a new evaluation using the Arrhenius equation, which is known as the chemical reaction rate estimation equation, to evaluate the intrinsic and extrinsic value elements of patents as a model. The performance of the evaluation model was superior to the SVM, Logistic reg. and ANN models that were used as patent evaluation models in prior studies. In addition, there was a strong correlation between the predicted lifespan of the patent and the actual lifespan of the patent. These evaluation models may be used for evaluation purposes only, or if an evaluation is required, including a commercialization entity or technical characteristics.

Study of Electronic Hardware Integrated Failure Rate: Considering Physics of Failure Rate and Radiation Failures Rate (물리 고장률과 방사선 고장률을 반영한 전자 하드웨어 통합 고장률 분석 연구)

  • Dong-min Lee;Chang-hyeon Kim;Kyung-min Park;Jong-whoa Na
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.216-224
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    • 2024
  • This paper presents a method for analyzing the reliability of hardware electronic equipment, taking into account failures caused by radiation. Traditional reliability analysis primarily focuses on the wear out failure rate and often neglects the impact of radiation failure rates. We calculate the wear out failure rate through physics of failure analysis, while the radiation failure rate is semi-empirically estimated using the Verilog Fault Injection tool. Our approach aims to ensure reliability early in the development process, potentially reducing development time and costs by identifying circuit vulnerabilities in advance. As an illustrative example, we conducted a reliability analysis on the ISCAS85 circuit. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method compared to traditional reliability analysis tools. This thorough analysis is crucial for ensuring the reliability of FPGAs in environments with high radiation exposure, such as in aviation and space applications.

A Review about the Need for Modelling Toll Road with Different Value of Travel Time (유료도로의 교통수요분석에 있어서 통행시간가치 차등화 필요성 검토)

  • Kim, Jae-Yeong;Son, Ui-Yeong;Jeong, Chang-Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2009
  • Some road charges toll to finance the cost or to manage traffic congestion. With a growth of PPI projects, toll roads would be increase continuously. Tolls have a considerable influence on user's route choice, and sometimes can affect to the departure time and even to mode choice. For modelling toll roads, user's WTP or VOT has an important role and it is general that VOT is equivalent to the wages of workers. The current way of modelling technique yields various toll price elasticity from low to high. When there exist few alternative routes, unrealistic result that all traffic assigned to some shortest path may occur. The toll price elasticity can be influenced by alternative route and congestion level, but some result shows nearly unrealistic patterns. The model to forecast more realistic toll road demand is very essential for estimating toll revenue, choice of optimal toll level & collecting location and establishing toll charge strategy. This paper reviewed some literatures about toll road modelling and tested case study about the assignment technique with different VOT. The case study shows that using different VOT yields more realistic result than the use of single VOT.

Supply Chain-based Freight Distribution Channel Choice Model using Distribution Channel Analysis (유통경로분석을 통한 공급사슬기반의 화물유통경로선택모형 개발)

  • Go, Yeong-Seung;Park, Dong-Ju;Kim, Chan-Seong;Kim, Hyeon-Su;Park, Min-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.133-146
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this study is to develop a supply chain-based freight distribution channel choice model considering shippers' logistics behaviors which will be used for freight demand estimation. For this purpose, this study utilized the distribution channel data of the petrochemical and automobile industries collected by KTDB center. The distribution channel choice models for these industries were developed by including transport mode, time, cost, and shipment size. It was found that the multinomial logit model with transport cost, time and shipment size is the best, and as shipment increases, bigger transport mode is preferred. Generally direct distribution channel with small truck was preferred over the one using distribution center and/or big truck.

Research on the Function and Economic Effect of Technology Opportunity Development System (기술기회발굴시스템의 기능 및 경제적 효과에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Woo-Sung;Kim, Kang-Hoe;Coh, Byoung-Youl
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.14 no.spc
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    • pp.1096-1127
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    • 2011
  • This research focus on estimating the economic effects of TOD system development from the perspective of new market creation, R&D planning cost reduction and increase of R&D projects' commercialization success rates. The research is conducted through simulation and scenario analysis with assumptions about economic effect parameters. Scenario analysis shows that scenario 1 (the application ratio of the new TOD system to total Korean R&D programs' planning is 1.4%) results in total economic effects, 921.3 billion won in 2011 price with B/C ratio 6.15, that scenario 2 (the application ratio is 1.9%) results in total economic effects, 1,250.3 billion won in 2011 price with B/C ratio 8.34, and that scenario 3 (the application ratio is 0.9%) results in total economic effects, 592.2 billion won in 2011 price with B/C ratio 3.95. The research contributed to the prior evaluation of economic validity of "R&D on Technology Opportunity Development (TOD) system" and to cultivating the new methodology of economic benefit estimation in the area of R&D on system development.

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A Benchmark of Hardware Acceleration Technology for Real-time Simulation in Smart Farm (CUDA vs OpenCL) (스마트 시설환경 실시간 시뮬레이션을 위한 하드웨어 가속 기술 분석)

  • Min, Jae-Ki;Lee, DongHoon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Agricultural Machinery Conference
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    • 2017.04a
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    • pp.160-160
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    • 2017
  • 자동화 기술을 통한 한국형 스마트팜의 발전이 비약적으로 이루어지고 있는 가운데 무인화를 위한 지능적인 스마트 시설환경 관찰 및 분석에 대한 요구가 점점 증가 하고 있다. 스마트 시설환경에서 취득 가능한 시계열 데이터는 온도, 습도, 조도, CO2, 토양 수분, 환기량 등 다양하다. 시스템의 경계가 명확함에도 해당 속성의 특성상 타임도메인과 공간도메인 상에서 정확한 추정 또는 예측이 난해하다. 시설 환경에 접목이 증가하고 있는 지능형 관리 기술 구현을 위해선 시계열 공간 데이터에 대한 신속하고 정확한 정량화 기술이 필수적이라 할 수 있다. 이러한 기술적인 요구사항을 해결하고자 시도되는 다양한 방법 중에서 공간 분해능 향상을 위한 다지점 계측 메트릭스를 실험적으로 구성하였다. $50m{\times}100m$의 단면적인 연동 딸기 온실을 대상으로 $3{\times}3{\times}3$의 3차원 환경 인자 계측 매트릭스를 설치하였다. 1 Hz의 주기로 4가지 환경인자(온도, 습도, 조도, CO2)를 계측하였으며, 계측 하는 시점과 동시에 병렬적으로 공간통계법을 이용하여 미지의 지점에 대한 환경 인자들을 실시간으로 추정하였다. 선행적으로 50 cm 공간 분해능에 대응하기 위하여 Kriging interpolation법을 횡단면에 대하여 분석한 후 다시 종단면에 대하여 분석하였다. 3 Ghz에 해당하는 연산 능력을 보유한 컴퓨터에서 1초 동안 획득한 데이터에 대한 분석을 마치는데 소요되는 시간이 15초 내외로 나타났다. 이는 해당 알고리즘의 매우 높은 시간 복잡도(Order of $O=O^3$)에 기인하는 것으로 다양한 시설 환경의 관리 방법론에 적절히 대응하기에 한계가 있다 할 수 있다. 실시간으로 시간 복잡도가 높은 연산을 수행하기 위한 기술적인 과제를 해결하고자, 근래에 관심이 증가하고 있는 NVIDIA 사에서 제공하는 CUDA 엔진과 Apple사의 제안을 시작으로 하여 공개 소프트웨어 개발 컨소시엄인 크로노스 그룹에서 제공하는 OpenCL 엔진을 비교 분석하였다. CUDA 엔진은 GPU(Graphics Processing Unit)에서 정보 분석 프로그램의 연산 집약적인 부분만을 담당하여 신속한 결과를 산출할 수 있는 라이브러리이며 해당 하드웨어를 구비하였을 때 사용이 가능하다. 반면, OpenCL은 CUDA 엔진이 특정 하드웨어에서 구동이 되는 한계를 극복하고자 하드웨어에 비의존적인 라이브러리를 제공하는 것이 다르며 클러스터링 기술과 연계를 통해 낮은 하드웨어 성능으로 인한 단점을 극복하고자 하였다. 본 연구에서는 CUDA 8.0(https://developer.nvidia.com/cuda-downloads)버전과 Pascal Titan X(NVIDIA, CA, USA)를 사용한 방법과 OpenCL 1.2(https://www.khronos.org/opencl/)버전과 Samsung Exynos5422 칩을 장착한 ODROID-XU4(Hardkernel, AnYang, Korea)를 사용한 방법을 비교 분석하였다. 50 cm의 공간 분해능에 대응하기 위한 4차원 행렬($100{\times}200{\times}5{\times}4$)에 대하여 정수 지수화를 위한 Quantization을 거쳐 CUDA 엔진과 OpenCL 엔진을 적용한 비교한 결과, CUDA 엔진은 1초 내외, OpenCL 엔진의 경우 5초 내외의 연산 속도를 보였다. CUDA 엔진의 경우 비용측면에서 약 10배, 전력 소모 측면에서 20배 이상 소요되었다. 따라서 우선적으로 OpenCL 엔진 기반 하드웨어 가속 기술 최적화 연구를 통해 스마트 시설환경 실시간 시뮬레이션 기술 도입을 위한 기술적 과제를 풀어갈 것이다.

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