• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불황

Search Result 637, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

A Development of Construction Industry Production Index(CIPI) with Temperature Effects (기온효과를 고려한 건설업생산지수 예측모델 개발)

  • Kim, Seok-Jong;Kim, Hyun-Woo;Chin, Kyung-Ho;Jang, Han-Ik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.14 no.5
    • /
    • pp.103-112
    • /
    • 2013
  • After 1990s, the influence of construction industry has been decreased on national economy and construction business condition has been changed on economic recession and boom repeatedly. Larger fluctuation of business condition makes a forecast of it to be more difficult. Uncertainty in business prediction results in damages on construction companies and stakeholders. Therefore, study on forecasting a construction business is very important. This study suggests the Construction Industry Production Index(CIPI) to predict a construction business in consider of temperature effects. The results show that construction business is much influenced by temperature effects certainly and GDP. With the CBFM, this study examines CIPI for 2013 with two scenarios: 1)with GDP growth rate of 3.5% 2)with GDP growth rate of 2.4%. Thus, CIPI would be used as the economic state index to display the construction business conditions. Also, CIPI will be utilized as basic methodology in the impact of climate change in the construction industry.

A Study on the Forecasting of Seaborne Trade of Mineral Resources : Cases of Iron Ore and Coal (광물자원의 해상물동량 전망에 관한 연구 : 철광석 및 석탄을 중심으로)

  • Jang, Won-Ik
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.19 no.2
    • /
    • pp.341-360
    • /
    • 2010
  • The goal of this study is to forecast the scales of seaborne trade of iron ore and coal. It is assumed that the seaborne trade of iron ore is the function of two independent variables(crude steel production, world GDP) and the seaborne trade of coal is the function of two independent variables(crude steel production, world electricity generation). The result shows that the regressions of two functions are statistically significant respectively. As the results of forecasting, the seaborne trade of iron ore in 2010 may be 892 million tons which is increased 5.1% compare to the level of 2009. Also the seaborne trade of coal in 2010 may be 827 million tons which is increased 6.1% compare to the level of 2009. In terms of the compound annual growth rate, it is forecasted that the iron ore may show 4.7% of increasing rate from 2009 to 2015 and the seaborne trade of coal may be increased 6.1% annually for the same period.

  • PDF

Business Cycles and Impacts of Oil Shocks on the Korean Macroeconomy (경기변동에 따른 유가충격이 거시경제에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Baek, Ingul;Kim, Taehwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.29 no.2
    • /
    • pp.171-194
    • /
    • 2020
  • We revisit the impact of oil shocks on the Korean economy and examine how this impact varies depending on a business cycle. First, we estimate the probability of a recession through a logistic probability distribution, and correct the probability to match business cycles announced by the Korea National Statistical Office. We set up a STVAR model to analyze the response of macroeconomic variables to oil shocks according to business cycles. We find that oil shocks during the recession have a negative effect on GDP in the mid- and long-term, but during the expansion, GDP does not show a statistically significant response to oil shocks. We presume that this finding is associated with the factors of both the increase in demand for consumption and the increase in current account during the economic boom. Also, we find that the impact of oil shocks on the price level was also observed differently in terms of the persistence of inflation by business cycle. These results highlight the importance of an application of a regime switching model, which has been widely used in energy economics in recent years.

Black Gold or the Devil's Curse? Oil and Networks in Azerbaijan (검은 황금인가 악마의 저주인가? 아제르바이쟌의 석유와 연줄망)

  • Lee, Chai-Mun
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
    • /
    • v.11 no.6
    • /
    • pp.640-656
    • /
    • 2005
  • A chronic depression in the Korean economy, which depends mostly on imported oil, has been attributed partly to rising crude oil prices recently. Against the backdrop of these realities in Korea, Azerbaijan in the Caspian region, with vast oil and gas deposits, has been greeted enviously by some Koreans. Many transition economies, especially on the Caspian region trumpeted by the oil boom, however, are rich in natural resources, but the benefits of those resources are appropriated by the local elite in collusion with foreign companies. Azerbaijan, in particular, is dominated by a series of internal and external patronage networks. Foreign capital nourishes those networks surrounding President Aliev. Thus, the case of Azerbaijan shows that resource rents in the transition economies sometimes do not help in improving the living conditions of ordinary people. Rather rich resource rents turn out to be a major impediment to the emerging development of the transition economy, lessening the incentives to reform in the country. The result was the possibility of the so-called Dutch Disease, in which disproportionate growth in a certain energy sector tends to crowd out investment in other sectors of the economy.

  • PDF

Research on Simplification and Harpening of Production Programs for Quality Enhancement of Webtoons (웹툰의 질적 향상을 위한 제작 프로그램 단순화와 첨예화 연구)

  • Gil, Moon-Sup
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
    • /
    • v.14 no.12
    • /
    • pp.389-395
    • /
    • 2016
  • Korean cartoons, seeking an exit from economic distress, naturally entered the era of webtoons as the Internet arose in early 2,000s. Webtoons, a new concept of cartoon, are drawn mostly by oneself, whereas cartoons before were drawn with the help of many apprentices. This research demonstrates that webtoon artists are required to use many programs and fully understand the Internet environment in order to draw webtoons. This tough conditions pose many problems for an artist who should draw well and quickly under the circumstances. We are now at a stage where a simple webtoon program is needed and will go over alternatives. I have researched characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of webtoon's core programs such as Photoshop, Comicstudio, Cytool, and Clipstudio, and what would be the optimal functions for webtoons. I offer new programs that are optimized for story cartoons that can be utilized with webtoons.

A Study on Development of Fashion Sharing Platform for Shared Economy -Focusing on fashion rental service case- (공유경제를 위한 패션 공유플랫폼 활성화 방안 연구 -패션 대여서비스 사례를 중심으로-)

  • Yoon, Ji-Yeon;Kim, Seung-In
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
    • /
    • v.8 no.7
    • /
    • pp.199-205
    • /
    • 2017
  • Despite the economic downturn, the amount of clothing being discarded is increasing due to the fast fashion. The purpose of this study is to propose a fashion sharing service development to settle the rational consumption culture along with the abandoned clothes problem. Shared fashion rental service has attracted as a solution to environmental problems not only when clothes are incinerated but also in manufacturing process, but there is a lack of precedent research. Therefore, this study is meaningful in that it has developed two development plans based on the results of analysis of service case based on three factors by Rachel Botsman. First, active community development. Second, it is the creation of goods through activation of the shared economy. In this study, there are limitations that can't be proved through actual application, so more research is needed through empirical studies on actual users in the future.

A Case Study on a Way of Improving the Grand Alliance Container Service Route by Incorporating Dedicated Feeders - Focusing on 'Far East-West Coast of North America' Route - (전용 피더 서비스 연계를 통한 Grand Alliance 컨테이너 서비스 항로의 운영 개선에 관한 사례 연구: '극동-북미서안' 컨테이너 서비스 항로를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Woo-Jin;Shin, Jeong-Hoon;Chang, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
    • /
    • v.36 no.5
    • /
    • pp.409-418
    • /
    • 2012
  • Amid global economic crisis and skyrocketing oil prices, container shipping companies have raised a sustained series of efforts to reduce vessel operating costs. Under these circumstances, the Grand Alliance has decided to install the dedicated feeder instead of additional vessels in the CCX(Central China Express) and the NCE(North China Express) route. In other words, a vessel in a trunk route is transshiped by a dedicated feeder vessel in Busan port that is a transshipment port, rather than calling at Northen China port. In this study, the actual operating data of Grand Alliance container services were analyzed to determine the economic effect of transshipment through a dedicated feeder service. In this way, the Grand Alliance are saving vessel operating expenses in 'NCE' and 'CCX' routes, making the slow steaming of vessels possible in these trunk routes.

A Study on Drawing Priority of Competitiveness Factors of Ship Management Company in Korea Using AHP (AHP를 이용한 우리나라 선박관리기업의 경쟁력 요인 우선순위 도출에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Chang-Ho;Ryoo, Dong-Keun;Sohn, Bo-Ra;Seo, Young-Joon
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
    • /
    • v.34 no.3
    • /
    • pp.243-249
    • /
    • 2010
  • The competition between ship management companies is fierce as a result of global trend towards increased specialization. In order for ship management companies to remain competitive, it is necessary to understand the local and global factors and the changing circumstances that impact shipping markets and trade patterns. To better understand these factors, a study and analysis of drawing priority of the competitiveness-evaluation factors of ship management companies was conducted using Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP) as a method dealing with dicision-making problem. As a consequence of this analysis, it was determined that human resources, both shipboard and land management, were a primary factor in ship management company's competitiveness. Thus, the acquisition and retention of capable staff was a key aspect of assuring a ship management company's competitiveness.

Relationship Analysis between Integration Incentive Factor and Integration Effect of Container Terminal by SEM - Primarily on the Busan North Port - (SEM에 의한 컨터미널의 통합유인요인과 통합효과간의 관련성분석 - 부산북항을 중심으로 -)

  • Ahn, Ki-Myung;Choo, Yeon-Gil;Lee, Kwang-Soo
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
    • /
    • v.34 no.3
    • /
    • pp.235-242
    • /
    • 2010
  • In recent years, the busan port is now facing a serious crisis. Exterally, though worldwide economics depression is a serious factor, cuttthroat competition between north port and new port since new port open lead to decrease terminal profitability and busan port image. The essential cause is crowed with terminal operators. therefore, This paper empirically analyze the container terminal integration factor solving busan port problem affecting the competitiveness performance. According to research results, integration between operators will be to acomplish global terminal, and so, contribute to increase service power, port productivity, cargoes and to be hub-port at the north-east asia. These results show political suggestions for importance of repid integration to improve busan port's competitiveness.

한국기업(韓國企業)의 수익성(收益性)에 관한 연구(硏究) -대주주(大株主)와 소수주주(少數株主)간의 이해갈등(利害葛藤)을 중심(中心)으로-

  • Jo, Seong-Uk
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.21 no.2
    • /
    • pp.3-54
    • /
    • 1999
  • 1997년의 경제위기는 근본적으로 많은 차입금에도 불구하고 장기간에 걸쳐 낮은 수익성을 보인 기업들이 불황에 직면하여 도산위험이 급증함으로써 발생한 것으로 판단된다. 그러면, 기업들의 수익성은 왜 이렇게 낮은 것일까? 본 연구는 지배대주주와 소액주주간의 갈등이 기업의 수익성을 저하시킨 한 원인으로 작용했다는 가설을 실증적으로 규명하고자 한다. 우리나라 기업들, 특히 기업집단의 경우 지배대주주의 개인소유지분은 높지 않지만 기업경영에 대한 통제력은 매우 강하다. 기업경영에 대한 감시와 책임경영이 확립되지 않는 경제에서 지배대주주가 기업자산을 개인적 이익에 따라 운영하는 경우 편익은 독점하지만 이에 따른 수익성 하락 등의 비용은 다른 주주와 소유 지분율에 따라 공유하게 되므로 사적이익을 추구할 유인이 크다. 본 연구는 1992년부터 1997년까지의 공기업 및 금융기관을 제외한 외부감사대상기업의 재무자료를 기초로 영업이익률, 경상이익률, 그리고 순이익률이 주주간의 이해상충에 의해 어떻게 영향을 받았는가를 분석하였다. 수익성 분석에 있어 상장여부, 자산운영(관계회사 및 비관계회사에 대한 투자), 재벌소속 여부, 기업규모, 재무구조 그리고 산업적 특성 및 기업의 경영 및 사업 전략적 특성을 제어하였다. 다른 조건이 동일하다고 가정하면 상장된 기업의 수익성은 비상장기업보다 낮다. 상장기업의 경우는 대주주의 소유지분이 낮은 반면에 외부주주의 비중이 높기 때문에 대주주가 개인의 이익을 추구하고자 하는 유인이 강하게 작용한 결과로 판단된다. 또한 재벌에 소독된 기업의 수익성은 독립기업들의 수익성보다 낮을 뿐만 아니라 계열회사의 유가증권 및 대여금 등에 대한 투자가 증가할수록 기업의 경상이익률 및 순이익률이 낮아진다. 반면에 비관계회사에 대한 투자자산은 경상이익률 및 순이익률을 높이는 것으로 나타났다. 재벌에 소속된 상장회사가 관계회사에 투자하는 경우는 투자기업의 수익성이 더욱 낮아지는 것으로 나타났다. 관계회사에 대한 투자는 수익성에 기초한 투자가 아니며 대주주의 지분이 낮은 상장기업에서 소액주주의 이익에 반하여 계열사에 대한 투자형태로 자원이 이전되고 있음을 시사한다. 본 논문의 분석 결과는 외부주주와 내부주주간의 이해상충이 기업의 수익성을 저하시킨다는 가설과 일관된다. 따라서 대주주가 개인적 이익을 추구하고자 하는 유인을 견제하고 소액주주의 권리를 강화하도록 지배구조를 확립해야 할 것이다.

  • PDF