• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실 평가 기법

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A Study on the Leakage Evaluation for Power Plant Valve Using Infrared Thermography Method (적외선열화상에 의한 발전용 밸브 누설명가 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Guk
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.110-115
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    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to estimate the feasibility using thermal image measurement that is applicable to internal leak diagnosis for the power plant valve. Abnormal heating of valve surface associated with high temperature steam f10w toward valve outlet side in the condition of low temperature is a primary indicator of leakage problems in high temperature and pressure valves. Thermal imaging enables to see the invisible thermal radiation that may portend impending damage before their condition becomes critical. When steam flow in valve outlet side in the condition of low temperature is converted into heat transmitted through the valve body due to the internal leakage in valve. The existence of abnormally increasable leakage rate in the valve will result in abnormally high levels of heat to be generated that can be quickly identified with a thermal image avoiding energy loss or damage of valve component. From the experimental results, it was suggested that the thermal image measurement could be an effective way to precisely diagnose and evaluate internal leak situation of valve.

Numerical Discussion on Natural Convection in Soils (지반내 자연대류에 대한 수치해석적 논의)

  • Shin, Hosung
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.35-47
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    • 2017
  • Thermal behavior of soils is mainly focused on thermal conduction, and the study of natural convection is very limited. Increase of soil temperature causes natural convection due to buoyancy from density change of pore water. The limitations of the analysis using fluid dynamics for natural convection in the porous media is discussed and a new numerical analysis is presented for natural convection in porous media using THM governing equations fully coupled in the macroscopic view. Numerical experiments for thermal probe show increase in the uncertainty of thermal conductivity estimated without considering natural convection, and suggest appropriate experimental procedures to minimize errors between analytical model and numerical results. Burial of submarine power cable should not exceed the temperature changes of $2^{\circ}C$ at the depth of 0.2 m under the seabed, but numerical analysis for high permeable ground exceeds this criterion. Temperature and THM properties of the seafloor are important design factors for the burial of power cable, and in this case effects of natural convection should be considered. Especially, in the presence of heat sources in soils with high permeability, natural convection due to the variation of density of pore water should be considered as an important heat transfer mechanism.

Analysis of LRFD Resistance Factor for Shallow Foundation on Weathered Soil Ground (풍화토지반 얕은기초에 대한 LRFD 저항계수 분석)

  • Kim, Donggun;Kim, Huntae;Suh, Jeeweon;Yoo, Namjae
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.5-11
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    • 2015
  • Recently the necessity of developing the Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) for shallow foundation has been raised to implement to the domestic design codes related to geotechnical engineering since the limit state design is requested as international technical standard for the foundation of structures. In this study, applicability of LRFD for shallow foundation on weathered soils was investigated and resistance factor for this case was proposed. The quantitative analyses on the uncertainty and resistance bias for shallow foundation on weathered soil ground were performed by collecting the statistical data about domestic case studies for design and construction of shallow foundation. Reliability analyses for shallow foundation were first performed using FDA (First-order Design value Approach) method. Resistance factors were calibrated using the load factors obtained from the specifications of shallow foundations on weathered soil ground. The influence of the load factors developed in this study on the resistance factors were discussed by comparing with the resistance factor obtained from using AASHTO load factors.

Estimation of The Observation Errors on Rainfall Radar Measurement by Dual-polarization Parameters Optimization Technique (편파변수 최적화 기법에 의한 강우레이더 강우량 관측오차의 추정)

  • Hwang, Seok Hwan;Yoon, Jungsoo;Kang, Narae;Noh, Huiseong;Han, Myoungsun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.208-208
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    • 2018
  • 본 연구에서는 비슬산 강우레이더 관측반경 내 표준유역별 정규화오차 정확도를 이용하여 강우량, 유역특성 등 강우레이더 관측의 수문학적 평가요소와의 상관 특성을 분석하였다. 이를 분석하면 강우레이더 관측 오차 또는 정확도가 수문학적 특성에 따라 얼마나, 어떻게 발생하는지를 추정할 수 있고, 이를 이용하여 홍수예보에 활용되는 입력 자료의 오차를 유역단위로 명확히 정량화 할 수 있어 보다 정확하고 신뢰도 높은 홍수예보에 도움이 될 것으로 기대된다. 강수량 크기와 강수추정 정확도 간의 상관 특성을 분석하기 위해 표준유역 평균 최대 강수량과 강수추정 정확도 간의 분포특성을 분석하였다. 단기간의 자료를 분석하여 오차특성을 정규화 하기는 매우 어렵기 때문에 본 연구에서는 비슬산 강우레이더로 관측된 2012년에서 2016년(5년)사이의 236개 강우사상에 대하여, 동기간의 기상청 AWS 지점 강우량을 기준으로 비슬산 강우레이더의 정규화오차 정확도(1-NE)를 산정한 후 이를 이용하여 850개 표준유역 별 유역평균 정규화오차 정확도를 재산정 하였다. 분석결과 표준유역 평균 최대강수량과 정규화오차 정확도 간에는 유의한 상관성이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 표준유역 평균 최대강수량의 크기에 따라 정규화오차 정확도가 상대적으로 일정한 경향이 나타났고 후처리 단계에서의 편파변수 최적화 이후에는 레이더 강수추정의 정규화오차 정확도가 표준유역 평균 최대강수량 크기에 상관없이 일정해 지는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 이러한 일정한 레이더 강수추정의 정규화오차 정확도는, 편파변수 최적화에 의해 관측 가능한 최대 기대 정확도 수준 도달에 도달했다고 볼 수 있으며, 표준유역에서 강우레이더의 강수추정 기대 정확도 수준은 84%(정규화오차 16%에 해당) 정도로 추정되었다.

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Economic Analysis of the Livestock Manure Treatment System Using Life-Cycle Cost Technique (LCC 기법을 통한 가축분뇨처리시설의 경제성 분석)

  • Kim, J.H.;Cho, S.H.;Kwag, J.H.;Choi, D.Y.;Jeong, K.H.;Chung, U.S.;Chung, M.S.;Park, S.K.
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.17 no.sup
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2011
  • To assess the total cost with all stages of facilities, the feasibility of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis was examined in this study to estimate the livestock manure treatment system and optimal decision making process. For the economic evaluation, the plant/equipment investment and annual operation cost of four Public Livestock Recycling Facilities, whose treatment capacity is 100 ton piggery manure per day, was compared. The initial cost was in the range of 2,699 million won to 3,202 million won, where T and E methods were highest and lowest, respectively. The annual operation cost was in the level of 378 million to 498 million won, which decreased in the following order : T method > J method > E method > B method. For the LCC analysis, 4.7% of interest rate, 3.13% of inflation rate, and 1.52% of net discount rate was considered by the data received from Bank of Korea and Statics Korea in the period of 2000 to 2009. Also, for the calculation of present value factor, the durable years of civil engineering & construction, machinery and electric instrument was 30 years, 10 years and 15 years, respectively. Based on these consideration, operation cost was in the range of 17,570 won/ton to 20,661 won/ton, and E method (17,570 won/ton) was economical and B method (20,661 won/ton) was non-economical. Though initial cost of T method was higher than that of B method, LCC analysis of T method was lower than that of T method due to the lower operation cost. Therefore, LCC analysis, which considers both initial cost and operation cost, is more reasonable evaluation method than either initial cost or annual operation cost. For the change of LCC analysis according to the uncertainty, the sensitivity analysis was carried out using fluctuation magnitude of discount rate in the period of 2000 to 2009. As a result, LCC analysis evaluated by discount rate was stable for the uncertain factors since the cost leadership did not change even though the sensitivity analysis varied. In summary, the economic evaluation using LCC analysis could be an efficient reference to choose the suitable livestock manure treatment plants. Furthermore, standardization of statement calculation for the actual cost analysis should be conducted and more detailed study is necessary to validate this summary. Therefore, the application of comprehensive technology evaluation, which considers LCC analysis, should contribute in obtaining objectivity and enhancing reliability for the 'Evaluation of Livestock Manure Treatment System and its Technology'.

Estimation of Water Quality Index for Coastal Areas in Korea Using GOCI Satellite Data Based on Machine Learning Approaches (GOCI 위성영상과 기계학습을 이용한 한반도 연안 수질평가지수 추정)

  • Jang, Eunna;Im, Jungho;Ha, Sunghyun;Lee, Sanggyun;Park, Young-Gyu
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.221-234
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    • 2016
  • In Korea, most industrial parks and major cities are located in coastal areas, which results in serious environmental problems in both coastal land and ocean. In order to effectively manage such problems especially in coastal ocean, water quality should be monitored. As there are many factors that influence water quality, the Korean Government proposed an integrated Water Quality Index (WQI) based on in situmeasurements of ocean parameters(bottom dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll-a concentration, secchi disk depth, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and dissolved inorganic phosphorus) by ocean division identified based on their ecological characteristics. Field-measured WQI, however, does not provide spatial continuity over vast areas. Satellite remote sensing can be an alternative for identifying WQI for surface water. In this study, two schemes were examined to estimate coastal WQI around Korea peninsula using in situ measurements data and Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) satellite imagery from 2011 to 2013 based on machine learning approaches. Scheme 1 calculates WQI using estimated water quality-related factors using GOCI reflectance data, and scheme 2 estimates WQI using GOCI band reflectance data and basic products(chlorophyll-a, suspended sediment, colored dissolved organic matter). Three machine learning approaches including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and a modified regression tree(Cubist) were used. Results show that estimation of secchi disk depth produced the highest accuracy among the ocean parameters, and RF performed best regardless of water quality-related factors. However, the accuracy of WQI from scheme 1 was lower than that from scheme 2 due to the estimation errors inherent from water quality-related factors and the uncertainty of bottom dissolved oxygen. In overall, scheme 2 appears more appropriate for estimating WQI for surface water in coastal areas and chlorophyll-a concentration was identified the most contributing factor to the estimation of WQI.

A Model of Time Dependent Design Value Engineering and Life Cycle Cost Analysis for Apartment Buildings (공동주택의 시간의존적 설계VE 및 LCC분석 모델)

  • Seo, Kwang-Jun;Choi, Mi-Ra;Shin, Nam-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.6 no.6 s.28
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    • pp.133-141
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    • 2005
  • In the resent years, the importance of VE (value engineering) and LCC (life cycle cost) analysis for apartment building construction projects has been fully recognized. Accordingly theoretical models, guidelines, and supporting software systems were developed for the value engineering and life cycle cost analysis for construction management including large building systems. However, the level of consensus on VE and LCC analysis results is still low due to the lack of reliable data on maintenance. This paper presents time dependent LCC model based value analysis method for rational investment decision making and design alternative selection for construction of apartment building. The proposed method incorporates a time dependent LCC model and a performance evaluation technique by fuzzy logic theory to properly handle the uncertainties associated with statistics data and to analyze the value of alternatives more rationally. The presented time dependent VE and LCC analysis procedure were applied to a real world project, and this case study is discussed in the paper. The model and the procedure presented in this study can greatly contribute to design value engineering alternative selection, the estimation of the life cycle cost, and the allocation of budget for apartment building construction projects.

Analysis of Landslide Hazard Map during Earthquake with Various Degrees of Saturation and Cohesion Values (포화도 및 점착력 변화에 따른 지진시 산사태 위험도 분석)

  • Lee, Joonyong;Han, Jin-Tae
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.599-606
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    • 2015
  • Damage of landslide due to earthquake covers a considerable part of total damage due to earthquake. Landslide due to earthquake affects direct damage of human lives and structures, and social system can be paralyzed by losing functions of roads, basic industries, and so on. Therefore, systematic and specialized research examining the factors affecting the slope stability by earthquakes should be needed. However, method of evaluation of slope stability problems due to earthquake contains somewhat uncertainty since many soil properties are predicted or assumed. In this study, influences of change of soil properties such as degree of saturation and cohesion value are analyzed in factor of safety and displacement using seismic landslide hazard maps based on GIS. As the degree of saturation increases or cohesion decreases, it is found that seismic landslide hazard area marked with factors of safety or displacements tends to increase. Therefore, to draw more exact landslide hazard map during earthquake, it is necessary to obtain accurate soil property information preferentially from site investigation data in the field.

A Study on Cost-Benefit analysis for Geographic Information Systems in Local Governments (지자체 GIS사업을 위한 비용효과분석 연구)

  • Kim, Eun-Hyung;Lee, Hyun-Soon
    • Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
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    • v.2 no.2 s.4
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    • pp.59-74
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    • 2000
  • Because efficiency of the 1st-phase NGIS investment(1995-2000) has not been clearly measured, the action taken in the 2nd-phase NGIS project requires NGIS budgets to be evaluated in terms of effectiveness. Especially, the effective investments in local governments are critical for the NGIS projects, because they execute the much larger amount of budgets in total than other GIS projects. As indicated, for the successful NGIS implementation, it is important to obtain continuous political and financial supports from decision makers. As a persuasion measure for the budget appropriation, CBA(Cost-Benefit Analysis) and CEA(Cost-Efficiency Analysis) can play an important role for the decision makers. The major concern of this paper is how to measure the costs and benefits of the GIS implementation by considering important characteristics of the GIS projects in local governments, and existing theories are reviewed for this concern. The GISs in local governments can have different stages in terms of its evolution and the effectiveness of the applications can be represented variously. To identify categories for measuring costs and benefits of the various GISs, case studies and success stories are reviewed from both the foreign and domestic research. The categories of costs and benefits are determined from the tangible and intangible aspects. The categories for the quantitative and qualitative measure are proposed to evaluate the GISs in local governments. After measuring costs and benefits, three key evaluation methods in cost-benefit analysis are suggested as follows: 1) the benefit: cost ratio (B/C), 2) Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and 3) the net present values (NPV) of the costs and benefits. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are also helpful to make a decision for the GIS budget appropriation in local governments. In conclusion, although cost-benefit analysis is not an easy undertaking, it is certain that it can play an important role in the future for the GIS funding decisions in local governments.

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Data processing system and spatial-temporal reproducibility assessment of GloSea5 model (GloSea5 모델의 자료처리 시스템 구축 및 시·공간적 재현성평가)

  • Moon, Soojin;Han, Soohee;Choi, Kwangsoon;Song, Junghyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.9
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    • pp.761-771
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    • 2016
  • The GloSea5 (Global Seasonal forecasting system version 5) is provided and operated by the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). GloSea5 provides Forecast (FCST) and Hindcast (HCST) data and its horizontal resolution is about 60km ($0.83^{\circ}{\times}0.56^{\circ}$) in the mid-latitudes. In order to use this data in watershed-scale water management, GloSea5 needs spatial-temporal downscaling. As such, statistical downscaling was used to correct for systematic biases of variables and to improve data reliability. HCST data is provided in ensemble format, and the highest statistical correlation ($R^2=0.60$, RMSE = 88.92, NSE = 0.57) of ensemble precipitation was reported for the Yongdam Dam watershed on the #6 grid. Additionally, the original GloSea5 (600.1 mm) showed the greatest difference (-26.5%) compared to observations (816.1 mm) during the summer flood season. However, downscaled GloSea5 was shown to have only a -3.1% error rate. Most of the underestimated results corresponded to precipitation levels during the flood season and the downscaled GloSea5 showed important results of restoration in precipitation levels. Per the analysis results of spatial autocorrelation using seasonal Moran's I, the spatial distribution was shown to be statistically significant. These results can improve the uncertainty of original GloSea5 and substantiate its spatial-temporal accuracy and validity. The spatial-temporal reproducibility assessment will play a very important role as basic data for watershed-scale water management.