• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.13 no.10
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• pp.509-516
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• 2015

Intangibility, measurement difficulty and irreversibility, which are the characteristics of service, have such problems as obscurity and uncertainty in quality evaluation. Technical entrepreneurship education, a sort of public service, also contains such characteristics of service. To objectively evaluate the service quality of technical entrepreneurship education, this paper drew up factors as hierarchical structure, centered on FAHP technique, and conducted pre-processing, inputted those factors into triangular fuzzy number fuzzy judgement matrix, and calculated their weights. In this manner, this paper proposed a TESE system, through which an analysis can be conducted by drawing relative importance and priorities of the factors. The proposed system can efficiently evaluate the qualitative technical start-up education service quality factors quantitatively in the diversely changing technical start-up environment in view of the highest result quality (41%), which means performance in the relative importance of major factors. Namely, this paper confirmed that clear decision making can be made through an experiment.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.26 no.9
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• pp.25-35
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• 2010

Settlement at reclamation area caused by secondary compression should be considered using spatial evaluating method because the thickness of consolidation layer varies at every location. Probabilistic method can be implemented to evaluate uncertainty of spatial distribution of secondary compression. This study spatially evaluated mean and standard deviation of secondary compression in the overall analyzing region using spatial distribution of consolidation thickness estimated by ordinary kriging method and statistical values of soil properties. And then, the area where secondary compression exceeds a design criterion at the specific time was evaluated using probabilistic method. It was observed that the area exceeding the design criterion increased as the variability of $C_{\alpha}/(1+e_o)$ increased or the probabilistic design criterion 0: decreased. It is considered that the probabilistic method can be used for the geotechnical design of soft ground when a probabilistic design criterion is established in the specification.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• v.35 no.8
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• pp.1132-1140
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• 2011

When the offshore wind power plant is planned to construct, it is important for the wind farm site to figure out the distribution of the weak soil layers that might cause subsidence by the impact of the external moment from the wind plant's load and an oscillating wind load. Coring test is the optimistic method to figure out weak soil layers, but this method have some problem such as condition of the in-situ or economical limitation. In order to make up for the weak points in coring test, the researches using the geostatistics methods is actually done. In this study, setting a fixed coastal area that offshore wind plants construct firstly and Estimation of distribution on the thickness of the weak soil layer through the geostatistic method is conducted. The weak soil layer is sorted by result of the Standard penetration test, geostatistic method is used to ordinary kring and sequential gaussian simulation and compared to both method's result. As a results of study, we found that both methods show similar estimations of deep weak soil layer and we could evaluate quantitatively the uncertainty of the result.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.37 no.6
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• pp.821-826
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• 2013

When the values of design variables change, mode switching can often occur. If the mode of interest is not tracked, the frequencies and modes for design optimization may be miscalculated owing to modes that differ from the intended ones. Thus, mode tracking must be employed to identify the frequencies and modes of interest whenever the values of design variables change during optimization. Furthermore, reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) must be performed for design problems with design variables containing uncertainty. In this research, we perform RBDO considering the mode tracking of a compressive coil spring, i.e., a component of the joint spring that supports a compressor, with design variables containing uncertainty by using only kriging metamodels based on multiple responses approach (MRA) without existing mode tracking methods. The reliability analyses for RBDO are employed using kriging metamodel-based Monte Carlo simulation.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.231-243
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to improve the social acceptance of AVs by analyzing the citizen's perception using an emotional analysis technique which belongs to a type of text mining. The source of the data is originated from 3 year accumulated internet articles and comments on AV from 164 newspapers and Naver. According to the study results, there exists a positive perception on AVs, although negative ones are more frequent than the positive. Also most of people take neutral position on AV due to the unfamiliarity and lack of experience on AVs And these problems needs to be responded before AV's commercialization through continuous analyses on the perception and social acceptance.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.501-501
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• 2015

댐과 같은 수공구조물의 치수능력부족은 구조물의 파손이나 붕괴로 직결되며, 대규모 재산피해와 인명피해가 불가피하다. 또한 최근 기후변화 현상에 의해 발생되고 있는 예상치 못한 큰 강우와 홍수는 댐 안전을 저하하는 요소로 간주되며, 복합적으로 발생시 댐의 치수능력이 크게 저하되어 댐 파괴에 영향을 미칠 가능성이 크다. 또한 ICOLD, 세계대댐회 등의 조사 결과 댐 파괴에 큰 영향을 미치고 있는 수문학적 요소로서 예상치 못한 강우, 홍수 및 월류로 조사되었다. 이러한 이유로 수문학적 위험인자를 효과적으로 고려하기 위해 2000년도 이후 선진국에서는 위험도 해석 기법을 기반으로 파괴모드, 다양한 하중조건 등을 조합하여 위험도 해석을 통해 댐의 안전도 검토를 실시하고 있다. 따라서 최근 증가하는 기상변동성을 능동적으로 고려하기 위해서는 위험도 해석기반의 수공구조물 안정성 평가기법을 기반으로 하는 종합적인 위험도 해석 방안수립이 요구된다. 이러한 이유로 본 연구에서는 BN 모형 기반의 댐 위험도 적용에 앞서 실증댐을 대상으로 분석을 수행하였으며, 분석 절차는 다음과 같다. 첫째, ICOLD 및 세계대댐회 등 다양한 논문, 보고서 등을 조사하여 댐 붕괴에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 수문학적 파괴인자를 도출하였다. 둘째, BN 모형 구축시 각 노드는 앞서 도출된 수문학적 파괴인자를 이용하였으며, 각 파괴인자에 적합한 확률분포형을 부여하였다. 마지막으로, 노드별 임계값을 부여하여 상황별 파괴인자의 변화 양상을 도출하였다. 본 연구의 결과로 인해 연구대상댐의 가장 취약한 수문학적 파괴인자 도출이 가능하며, 댐의 보수 보강시 우선순위 의사결정의 지원이 가능 할 것으로 판단된다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.332-332
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• 2021

도시화가 상당히 이뤄지고 기습적인 폭우의 발생이 불확실하게 나타나는 시점에서 재산 및 인명피해를 야기할 수 있는 내수침수에 대한 위험도가 증가하고 있다. 내수침수에 대한 예측을 위하여 실측강우 또는 확률강우량 시나리오를 참조하고 연구대상 지역에 대한 1차원 그리고 2차원 수리학적 해석을 실시하는 연구가 오랫동안 진행되어 왔으나, 수치해석 모형의 경우 다양한 수문-지형학적 자료 및 계측 자료를 요구하고 집약적인 계산과정을 통한 단기간 예측에 어려움이 있음이 언급되어 왔다. 본 연구에서는 위와 같은 문제점을 해결하기 위하여 단일 도시 배수분구를 대상으로 관측 강우 자료, 1, 2차원 수치해석 모형, 기계학습 및 딥러닝 기법을 적용한 실시간 홍수위험지도 예측 모형을 개발하였다. 강우자료에 대하여 실시간으로 홍수량을 예측할 수 있도록 LSTM(Long-Short Term Memory) 기법을 적용하였으며, 전국단위 강우에 대한 다양한 1차원 도시유출해석 결과를 학습시킴으로써 예측을 수행하였다. 침수심의 공간적 분포의 경우 로지스틱 회귀를 이용하여, 기준 침수심에 대한 예측을 각각 수행하였다. 홍수위험 등급의 경우 침수심, 유속 그리고 잔해인자를 고려한 홍수위험등급 공식을 적용하여 산정하였으며, 이 결과를 랜덤포레스트(Random Forest)에 학습함으로써 실시간 예측을 수행할 수 있도록 개발하였다. 침수범위 및 홍수위험등급에 대한 예측은 격자 단위로 이뤄졌으며, 검증 자료의 부족으로 침수 흔적도를 통하여 검증된 2차원 침수해석 결과와 비교함으로써 예측력을 평가하였다. 본 기법은 특정 관측강우 또는 예측강우 자료가 입력되었을 때에, 도시 유역 단위로 접근이 불가하여 통제해야 할 구간을 실시간으로 예측하여 관리할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.9
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• pp.769-782
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• 2018

Estimation of design floods is typically required for hydrologic design purpose. Design floods are routinely estimated for water resources planning, safety and risk of the existing water-related structures. However, the hydrologic data, especially streamflow data for the design purposes in South Korea are still very limited, and additionally the length of streamflow data is relatively short compared to the rainfall data. Therefore, this study collected a large number design flood data and watershed characteristics (e.g. area, slope and altitude) from the national river database. We further explored to formulate a scaling approach for the estimation of design flood, which is a function of the watershed characteristics. Then, this study adopted a Hierarchical Bayesian model for evaluating both parameters and their uncertainties in the regionalization approach, which models the hydrologic response of ungauged basins using regression relationships between watershed structure and model. The proposed modeling framework was validated through ungauged watersheds. The proposed approach have better performance in terms of correlation coefficient than the existing approach which is solely based on area as a predictor. Moreover, the proposed approach can provide uncertainty associated with the model parameters to better characterize design floods at ungauged watersheds.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.114-125
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• 2009

In this study, a design value analysis technique that considered stochastic LCC and stochastic performance evaluation was proposed, and by introducing the concept of reliability analysis, a decision making that secured reliability was supported. The results of this study, which was carried out according to the above objectives and methods, are summarized as follows: 1) The design value analysis procedures and value state function, improved in order to carry out a reliable analysis when evaluating alternate proposals that were extracted after the function definition was complete, were formalized, and in order to secure consistency and efficiency for value evaluation procedures, an evaluation index scheme was proposed; 2) Database collection and analysis were done for a bridge's LCC analysis. As for the collection scope of data, literature of previous research done on a bridge's LCC analysis was used as the basis for analysis, and for securing reliability regarding analysis results and dealing with uncertainty of collected data, the MCS technique was applied; 3) Weights and evaluation ranks for performance evaluation of each of the alternate proposals, as well as LCC analysis model, analysis period, discount rate, user expense, safety inspection and safety diagnosis expense conditions for LCC analysis were proposed. Lastly, a feasibility study was done and conclusion was made about "OO grand bridge and connecting road construction work execution design" project centered on value analysis execution case.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.3
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• pp.155-167
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• 2017

Accurate QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation) and the quality of the rainfall data for hydrological analysis are very important factors. Especially, the quality has a great influence on flood runoff result. It needs to know characteristics of the uncertainties in radar QPE for the reliable flood analysis. The purpose of this study is to present a probabilistic approach which defines the range of possible values or probabilistic distributions rather than a single value to consider the uncertainties in radar QPE and evaluate its applicability by applying it to radar rainfall. This study generated radar rainfall ensemble for the storms by the typhoon 'Sanba' on Namgang dam basin, Korea. It was shown that the rainfall ensemble is able to simulate well the pattern of the rain-gauge rainfall as well as to correct well the overall bias of the radar rainfall. The suggested ensemble technique represented well the uncertainties of radar QPE. As a result, the rainfall ensemble model by a probabilistic approach can provide various rainfall scenarios which is a useful information for a decision making such as flood forecasting and warning.