• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2011.02a
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• pp.185-185
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• 2011

기존 장대레일 궤도의 안정성 평가는 궤도 매개변수에 대하여 고정된 안전측의 값을 사용하는 결정론적인 해석에 의존해서 평가되어져 왔다. 그러나 실제현장의 궤도조건은 많은 영향인자들에 의해 그 특성이 불확실하게 변하고 있다. 따라서 온도하중에 의한 궤도 좌굴에 영향을 미치는 궤도 구성인자들의 불확실성 및 임의성을 보다 합리적으로 고려하기 위해서 확률론적 기법을 적용하는 것이 필수적이다. 본 연구에서는 기존 본 연구진에 의해 개발된 장대레일 궤도의 좌굴확률 평가시스템을 이용하여 좌굴 취약도 곡선을 나타내었으며, 궤도 좌굴에 영향을 미치는 주요변수 중 하나인 도상횡저항력에 대한 영향을 분석하였다. 좌굴확률 평가시스템에서는 장대레일 궤도의 좌굴확률을 산정하기 위하여 구조물의 안정과 파괴를 판단할 수 있는 기준을 한계상태방정식으로 표현하고, 이 한계상태방정식으로부터 확률론적 기법 중 하나인 AFOSM(Advanced First Order Second Moment) 방법을 이용하여 파괴확률의 간접적인 지표인 신뢰도지수(${\beta}$)를 통해 좌굴확률을 계산한다. 한계상태방정식에서 구조물의 강도(보유성능)에 해당하는 부분은 궤도의 허용좌굴온도이고, 하중(요구성능)에 해당하는 부분은 레일온도하중으로써 현재 레일온도와 중립온도의 차로 반영된다. 허용좌굴온도 산정에 고려되는 주요변수는 곡선반경(Radius), 도상횡저항력(Lateral Ballast Resista nce), 연직도상강성(Vertical Ballast Stiffness), 궤도 틀림량(Misalignment), 틀림길이(Half Wave Length), 열차운행속도(Velocity)이다. 각 확률변수들이 갖는 확률분포는 모두 정규분포로 가정하였다. 궤도의 기하학적 특성은 곡선반경 5,000m에 대해 고려하였으며, 열차는 KTX의 제원을 사용하여 정지된 상태에서 고려하였다. 틀림량과 틀림길이는 이에 대한 통계적 특성자료가 부족하여 확률변수로 고려하지 않고 결정론적 값으로 취급하였다. 레일온도의 통계적 특성치는 본 연구진에 의해 구축된 기후요소 및 레일온도 DB를 근거로 결정하였으며, 중립온도는 선로관리지침에 따라 $25{\pm}3^{\circ}C$를 기준으로 결정하였다. 또한 도상횡저항력은 실측 데이터를 참고로 하여 평균값에서 10%의 변동량을 갖는 것으로 보고 통계적 특성치를 결정하였다. 도상횡저항력이 좌굴확률에 미치는 영향을 매우 큰 것을 알 수 있었으며, 레일온도 $60^{\circ}C$일 때 도상횡저항력이 증가하면서 감소되는 좌굴확률이 도상저항력이 커질수록 그 감소량이 작아지는 것을 알 수 있었다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.9
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• pp.681-690
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• 2009

In this research, design precipitation was calculated by reflecting the climatic indices and its uncertainty assessment was evaluated. Climatic indices used the sea surface temperature and moisture index which observed globally. The correlation coefficients were calculated between the annual maximum precipitation and the climatic indices. and then climatic indices which have the larger correlation coefficient were selected. Therefore, the regression relationship was established by a locally weighted polynomial regression. Next, climatic indices were generated by montecarlo simulation using kernel function. Finally, the design rainfall was calculated by the locally weighted polynomial regression using generated climatic indices. At the result, the comparison of design rainfall between the reflection of the climatic indices and the frequency analysis did not indicate a significant difference. Also, this result can be used as basic data for calculation of probability precipitation to reflect climate change.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.353-357
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• 2008

The building construction projects include a variety of risk factors due to uncertainties. To succeed in the projects, it is important how risks are managed. Risk management processes identification, analysis and response. Especially, the analysis process is important to objectively identify importance and priority among risk factors. The purpose of this study is to develop the effective analysis process by studying and supplement the problem of the AHP analysis method. The study provides a analysis process to use the PROMETHEE analysis method proposed.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.99-105
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• 2011

This paper presents a method to design a centralized repetitive controller that is robust to variations in the multiple system parameters. The uncertain parameters are specified probabilistically by their probability distribution functions. Instead of working with the distribution functions directly, the centralized repetitive controller is designed from a set of models that are generated from the specified probability functions. With this multiple-model design approach, any number of uncertain parameters that follow any type of distribution functions can be treated. Furthermore, the controller is derived by minimizing a frequency-domain based cost function that produces monotonic convergence of the tracking error as a function of repetition number. Numerical illustrations show how the proposed multiple-model design method produces a repetitive controller that is significantly more robust than an optimal repetitive controller designed from a single nominal model of the multiple system.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.7
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• pp.547-558
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• 2009

General reliability assessment of levees embankment is performed with safety factors for rainfall characteristics and hydrologic and hydraulic parameters, based on the results of deterministic analysis. The safety factors are widely employed in the field of engineering handling model parameters and the diversity of material properties, but cannot explain every natural phenomenon. Uncertainty of flood analysis and related parameters by introducing stochastic method rather than deterministic scheme will be required to deal with extreme weather and unprecedented flood due to recent climate change. As a consequence, stochastic-method-based measures considering parameter uncertainty and related factors are being established. In this study, a variety of dimensionless cumulative rainfall curve for typhoon and monsoon season of July to September with generation method of stochastic temporal variation is generated by introducing Monte Carlo method and applied to the risk assessment of levee embankment using reliability index. The result of this study reflecting temporal and regional characteristics of a rainfall can be used for the establishment of flood defence measures, hydraulic structure design and analysis on a watershed.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.2029-2033
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• 2007

오늘날 특정 유역에서의 수문현상 및 수문순환에 대한 분석을 위한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 이를 위해서는 수문자료의 관측은 반드시 수반되어야 하며, 관측자료의 품질관리 및 원시자료의 관리 등이 요구되고 있는 실정이다. 관측된 수문자료의 품질관리라 함은 자료의 신뢰도 분석과 자료의 보완의 두 과정을 포함한다. 여기서, 신뢰도 분석이라 함은 자료 속에 포함된 불확실성을 판별하는 작업을 의미하며, 자료의 불확실성은 위에서 언급된 자료의 불충분 및 불안정을 제외한 부정확, 불일관성에서 비롯된다. 자료의 보완이라 함은 자료의 신뢰도 분석을 통하여 자료 속에 포함된 불확실한 성분들을 찾아내고, 이를 제거한 후 완전한 자료로 대체하고, 자료가 결측된 경우 공백을 연결함으로써 자료의 완전성을 유지하거나 또는 불충분한 자료를 확장하는 일련의 보완작업이라고 정의한다. 자료의 품질을 결정하는 주요 인자는 크게 관측소 관리의 하드웨어적인 측면과 자료 분석의 소프트웨어적인 측면이 있다. 하드웨어적인 측면에서의 수문자료 품질관리를 위해서 본 과제에서는 현장에 설치된 수위계, 강우량계의 센서 등에 대한 장비를 점검하고, 현장실측을 통해 지속적으로 측정값을 보정해주는 역할을 수행하고 있으며, 소프트웨어적인 측면에서 수문자료의 품질관리를 위해서는 수문자료의 수집 단계부터 시작하여 데이터베이스 저장, 필터링, 통계분석, 웹 및 C/S(Client Server)를 통한 배포 등의 일련의 자료 처리 과정을 수행할 수 있는 수문자료관리 프로그램을 웹 시스템과 C/S로 분류하여 정의내릴 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 수문자료의 관리자 입장에서의 보다 효율적이고 체계적으로 자료를 관리하고 분석하기 위한 방안으로 수문자료관리시스템(Hydrologic Data Aquisition and Management System, HDAMS)을 개발하였다. 이 시스템은 안양천 유역에서 시범 적용하고 있으며, 범용성을 전제로 개발되었다. 또한 수문자료 관리 프로그램의 DB 구조 및 DB 자료를 활용한 다양한 분석기능은 갖도록 설계하였으며 계획된 데이터베이스 구조를 바탕으로 계측기 인터페이스와 사용자 인터페이스, 데이터베이스 간의 연동이 원활히 이루어지도록 개발하고자 한다.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.94-98
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• 2014

This study was intend to develop the optimal design method of suspension bridge by the reliability analysis based on minimization of life cycle cost(LCC). The reliability analysis was performed considering aleatory uncertainties included in the result of numerical analysis. The optimal design was estimated based on life-cycle cost analysis depending on the result of reliability analysis. As the effect of epistemic uncertainty, the safety index (beta), failure probability (pf) and minimum life cycle cost were random variables. The high-level distributions were generated, from which the critical percentile values were obtained for a conservative bridge design through sensitivity assessment.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 2014.10a
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• pp.467-471
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• 2014

The natural frequencies of a mechanical system are determined by the system parameters such as masses and stiffness of the system. Since material irregularities and manufacturing tolerances always exist in most of practical engineering situations, the system parameters always have uncertainties. As the uncertainties of the parameters increase, the uncertainties of the system natural frequencies also increases. Then, the reliability of the system deteriorates. So, the uncertainty of the system natural frequencies should be analyzed accurately and considered in the design of the system. In order to analyze the uncertainty of the system natural frequencies employing most of existing uncertainty analysis methods, the probability distributions of the uncertain system parameters should be identified. In most practical situations, however, identification of the probability distributions is almost impossible because of limited time and cost. For that case, the reliability should be estimated based on finite samples of the system parameters. In this paper, sample based reliability estimation method employing extreme value theory was proposed. Using the proposed estimation method, sample based reliability design of the system natural frequencies was conducted.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.237-245
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• 2011

As necessity of safety re-evaluation for spent fuel storage facility has emphasized after the Fukushima accident, accuracy improvement of heat load evaluation has become more important to acquire reliable thermal-hydraulic evaluation results. As groundwork, parametric and sensitivity analyses of various storage conditions for Kori Unit 4 spent fuel storage pool and spent fuel depletion parameters such as axial burnup effect, operation history, and specific heat are conducted using ORIGEN2 code. According to heat load evaluation and parametric sensitivity analyses, decay heat of last discharged fuel comprises maximum 80.42% of total heat load of storage facility and there is a negative correlation between effect of depletion parameters and cooling period. It is determined that specific heat is most influential parameter and operation history is secondly influential parameter. And decay heat of just discharged fuel is varied from 0.34 to 1.66 times of average value and decay heat of 1 year cooled fuel is varied from 0.55 to 1.37 times of average value in accordance with change of specific power. Namely depletion parameters can cause large variation in decay heat calculation of short-term cooled fuel. Therefore application of real operation data instead of user selection value is needed to improve evaluation accuracy. It is expected that these results could be used to improve accuracy of heat load assessment and evaluate uncertainty of calculated heat load.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.39 no.11
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• pp.1033-1041
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• 2011

In this paper, a collision avoidance maneuver frequency for the KOMPSAT-2 and the KOMPSAT-5 is analyzed. For the statistical prediction of the avoidance maneuver frequency, mission orbits, responsive time, accepted collision probabilities, and positional uncertainties of primary and secondary objects are considered. In addition, the collision avoidance maneuver frequency of the KOMPSAT-2 is compared to the case that NORAD catalog during one year is used to calculate that of the KOMPSAT-2. As a result, the collision avoidance maneuver frequency is one per year on average and effective factors on the statistical prediction of the avoidance maneuver frequency are investigated. Efforts to improve its prediction accuracy are also discussed.