• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실도 평가

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Seismic Characteristic Evaluation on Strip-type Damping Devices with Optimized Shape (최적 형상 스트립형 감쇠장치의 내진 특성 평가)

  • Hwang, Jung-Hyun;Ock, Jong-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.26-37
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    • 2019
  • This paper aims to investigate the seismic characteristics of strip-type damping devices possessing optimized shapes for the moment-resisting mechanism throughout analytical and experimental studies. Predicting equations for initial stiffness and yielding strength were introduced and compared with analytical results obtained from finite element analyses (FEAs) using commercial FEA program ABAQUS. In order for establishing predicting equations, two idealized processes were considered and both predicting equations showed that they could provide enough approximations for seismic applications in building structures. Throughout experimental studies, it was noted that structural uncertainties on mild steels, connection details and structural types linking damping devices with building structures could interrupt predicting structural behavior of the devices. Also, it was observed that shear stress concentrations should be considered if shear yielding type devices are applied into building structures. Nevertheless, it was shown that structural conservatism can be established using the predicting equations and seismic applications of the damping devices can enhance the seismic performance of building structures efficiently in the viewpoint that they have high resistance to low-cycle fatigue failures.

A Study on The Kinds and Characteristics of Fast Foods - By Highschool Students in Daejeon - (패스트푸드의 종류 및 특징에 대한 연구 - 대전지역 고등학생을 대상으로 -)

  • Bae, Young-kung;Kim, Youngnam
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.79-88
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study was to distinguish which food is fast foods and to define the characteristics of fast foods. The 14 kind of foods(hamburger, pizza, fried chicken, raymyeon, hotdog, doughnut, fried fish cake, jajangmyeon udong, ice cream, dukbokki, spaghetti, sandwich, gimbab, and salad) and 5 characteristics of fast foods(takeout, franchise, fast serving, unhealthy, and cheap price foods) were selected based on the dictionary and previous research papers about fast foods for this study. A total of 306 male and female high school student in Daejeon area were participated. The data were gathered by questionnaire and analyzed by SPSS/WIN 18.0 program. The participants evaluated the fast foods as delicious and convenient foods but non-nutritious, i.e. high fat but vitamin deficient foods. Among the 14 foods examined, hamburger, pizza, and fried chicken were the foods which more than 90% of the participants acknowledged to fast foods. Dukbokki, spaghetti, sandwich, gimbab, and salad were the foods which less than 50% of the participant acknowledged to fast foods. Among the 5 characteristics of fast food examined, unhealthy foods showed the highest sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, and odds ratio(0.803, 0.712, 0.597, and 2.79, respectively), and cheap price showed the lowest values of those(0.565, 0.335, 0.242, and 0.85, respectively) for acknowledging foods to fast foods. As conclusion, hamburger, pizza, and fried chicken were the representative foods of fast foods. Fast foods are generally considered as fast served cheap price foods, but the participants did not think the fast foods as fast and cheap foods. The most distinguished characteristics of fast foods in the students' minds was unhealthy foods.

Development of Traffic Conflict Technique with Fuzzy Reasoning Theory (퍼지추론을 적용한 교통상충기법(TCT) 개발)

  • ;;;今田寬典
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.55-63
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    • 2002
  • It has been known well that Traffic Conflict Technique(TCT) used to evaluate the safety of intersections in the case of shortage of traffic accidents data and surveying time. Because data for using in traffic conflict technique that is collected by trained surveyors, it is rely on the knowledge, experience and the characteristics of them. The data of surveying generate varying result. So, its variance must minimize and then it is considered of calculating in traffic conflict technique however obviously technique to minimize has not developed until now. So, this paper has a focus on the technical method to minimize the variance. For this, it applied the fuzzy reasoning theory to the existed traffic conflict technique that is the most comprehensive method in the country and then developed the new traffic conflict technique model. Fuzzy reasoning theory is a very appropriate method for minimizing the variance among surveyors because it can systematically calculate the uncertainty of surveyors by approximation reasoning structure. The result of analysis from pilot study, the new Procedure in this Paper minimized the variance by 53 Percentiles and it increased the value of conversion factor two times than the exited traffic conflict technique. The method proposed in this paper, it can be used for evaluating the safety of intersection, and before and after analysis of improving Project of black spots.

Standardization of KoFlux Eddy-Covariance Data Processing (KoFlux 에디 공분산 자료 처리의 표준화)

  • Hong, Jin-Kyu;Kwon, Hyo-Jung;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Byun, Young-Hwa;Lee, Jo-Han;Kim, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2009
  • The standardization of eddy-covariance data processing is essential for the analysis and synthesis of vast amount of data being accumulated through continuous observations in various flux measurement networks. End users eventually benefit from the open and transparent standardization protocol by clear understanding of final products such as evapotranspiration and gross primary productivity. In this paper, we briefly introduced KoFlux efforts to standardize data processing methodologies and then estimated uncertainties of surface fluxes due to different processing methods. Based on our scrutiny of the data observed at Gwangneung KoFlux site, net ecosystem exchange and ecosystem respiration were sensitive to the selection of different processing methods. Gross primary production, however, was consistent within errors due to cancellation of the differences in NEE and Re, emphasizing that independent observation of ecosystem respiration is required for accurate estimates of carbon exchange. Nocturnal soil evaporation was small and thus the annually integrated evapotranspiration was not sensitive to the selection of different data processing methods. The implementation of such standardized data processing protocol to AsiaFlux will enable the establishment of consistent database for validation of models of carbon cycle, dynamic vegetation, and land-atmosphere interaction at regional scale.

Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Li-Ion Battery Based on Charge Voltage Characteristics (충전 전압 특성을 이용한 리튬 이온 배터리의 잔존 수명 예측)

  • Sim, Seong Heum;Gang, Jin Hyuk;An, Dawn;Kim, Sun Il;Kim, Jin Young;Choi, Joo Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.313-322
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    • 2013
  • Batteries, which are being used as energy sources in various applications, tend to degrade, and their capacity declines with repeated charging and discharging cycles. A battery is considered to fail when it reaches 80% of its initial capacity. To predict this, prognosis techniques are attracting attention in recent years in the battery community. In this study, a method is proposed for estimating the battery health and predicting its remaining useful life (RUL) based on the slope of the charge voltage curve. During this process, a Bayesian framework is employed to manage various uncertainties, and a Particle Filter (PF) algorithm is applied to estimate the degradation of the model parameters and to predict the RUL in the form of a probability distribution. Two sets of test data-one from the NASA Ames Research Center and another from our own experiment-for an Li-ion battery are used for illustrating this technique. As a result of the study, it is concluded that the slope can be a good indicator of the battery health and PF is a useful tool for the reliable prediction of RUL.

Design of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Based Automatic Control System for Integrated Environment Management of Ubiquitous Plant Factory (유비쿼터스 식물공장의 통합환경관리를 위한 적응형 뉴로-퍼지 추론시 스템 기반의 자동제어시스템 설계)

  • Seo, Kwang-Kyu;Kim, Young-Shik;Park, Jong-Sup
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.169-175
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    • 2011
  • The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) based automatic control system framework was proposed for integrated environment management of ubiquitous plant factory which can collect information of crop cultivation environment and monitor it in real-time by using various environment sensors. Installed wireless sensor nodes, based on the sensor network, collect the growing condition's information such as temperature, humidity, $CO_2$, and the control system is to monitor the control devices by using ANFIS. The proposed automatic control system provides that users can control all equipments installed on the plant factory directly or remotely and the equipments can be controlled automatically when the measured values such as temperature, humidity, $CO_2$, and illuminance deviated from the decent criteria. In addition, the better quality of the agricultural products can be gained through the proposed automatic control system for plant factory.

Use of Climate Information for Improving Extended Streamflow Prediction in Korea (중장기 유량예측 향상을 위한 국내 기후정보의 이용)

  • Lee Jae-Kyoung;Kim Young-Oh;Jeong Dae-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.9 s.170
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    • pp.755-766
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    • 2006
  • Since the accuracy of climate forecast information has improved from better understanding of the climatic system, particularly, from the better understanding of ENSO and the improvement in meteorological models, the forecasted climate information is becoming the important clue for streamflow prediction. This study investigated the available climate forecast information to improve the extended streamflow prediction in Korea, such as MIMI(Monthly Industrial Meteorological Information) and GDAPS(Global Data Assimilation and Prediction) and measured their accuracies. Both MIMI and the 10-day forecast of GDAPS were superior to a naive forecasts and peformed better for the flood season than for the dry season, thus it was proved that such climate forecasts would be valuable for the flood season. This study then forecasted the monthly inflows to Chungju Dam by using MIMI and GDAPS. For MIMI, we compared three cases: All, Intersection, Union. The accuracies of all three cases are better than the naive forecast and especially, Extended Streamflow Predictions(ESPs) with the Intersection and with Union scenarios were superior to that with the All scenarios for the flood season. For GDAPS, the 10-day ahead streamflow prediction also has the better accuracy for the flood season than for the dry season. Therefore, this study proved that using the climate information such as MIMI and GDAPS to reduce the meteorologic uncertainty can improve the accuracy of the extended streamflow prediction for the flood season.

Prediction of Shore Tide level using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 해안 조위예측)

  • Rhee Kyoung Hoon;Moon Byoung Seok;Kim Tae Kyoung;Oh jong yang
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.1068-1072
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    • 2005
  • 조석이란, 해면의 완만한 주기적 승강을 말하며, 보통 그 승강은 1일 약 2회이나, 곳에 따라서는 1일 1회의 곳도 있다. 조석에 있어서는 이 밖에 수일의 주기를 갖는 약간 불규칙한 승강, 반년, 또는 1년을 주기로 하는 다소 규칙적인 승강까지 포함하여 취급한다. 그러나, 각 항만마다 갖는 특정적인 주기인 수분내지 수십분의 주기의 승강은 조석으로 취급하지 않는다. 조석은 해양의 제현상 중에서 예측가능성이 가장 큰 현장으로 이는 조석이 천체의 운행과 연관되기 때문이다. 조석이란 지구로부터 일정한 거리에서 각 고유의 속도를 가지는 적도상을 운행하는 무수의 가상천체에 기인하는 규칙적인 개개의 조석을 합성한 것이며 이 개개의 조석을 분조(Constituent)라 한다. 여기에서 사용되는 신경망 모형은 입력과 출력으로 구성되는 블랙박스 모형으로서 하나의 시스템을 병렬적으로 비선형적으로 구축할 수 있다는 장점 때문에 과거 하천유역의 강우-유출과정에서의 경우 유출현상을 해석하고 유출과정을 모형화 하기 위해 사용하였다. 본 연구에서는 기존의 조위 예측방법인 조화분석법이 아닌 인공신경망을 이용하여 조위예측을 실시하였다. 학습이라는 최적화 과정을 통해 구조와 기능이 복잡한 자연현상을 그대로 받아들여 축적시킴으로써 이를 지식으로 현상에 대한 재현능력이 뛰어나고, 또한 신경회로망의 연상기억능력에 적용하여 수학적으로 표현이 불가능한 불확실한 조위곡선에 적용하기에 유리한 장점을 가지고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 과거 조위이론을 통해 이루었던 조위예측을 우리가 알기 쉬운 여러 기후인자(해면기압, 풍향, 풍속, 음력 등)에 따른 조위곡선을 예측하기 위해 신경망 모형을 이용하여 여수지역의 조위에 적용하여 비교 분석하고자 한다. May가 제안한 공식을 더 확장하여 적용할 수 있는 실험 공식으로 개선하였으며 다양한 조건에 대한 실험을 수행하여 보다 정밀한 공식으로 개선할 수 있었다.$10,924m^3/s$ 및 $10,075m^3/s$로서 실험 I의 $2,757m^3/s$에 비해 통수능이 많이 개선되었음을 알 수 있다.함을 알 수 있다. 상수관로 설계 기준에서는 관로내 수압을 $1.5\~4.0kg/cm^2$으로 나타내고 있는데 $6kg/cm^2$보다 과수압을 나타내는 경우가 $100\%$로 밸브를 개방하였을 때보다 $60\%,\;80\%$ 개방하였을 때가 더 빈번히 발생하고 있으므로 대상지역의 밸브 개폐는 $100\%$ 개방하는 것이 선계기준에 적합한 것으로 나타났다. 밸브 개폐에 따른 수압 변화를 모의한 결과 밸브 개폐도를 적절히 유지하여 필요수량의 확보 및 누수방지대책에 활용할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.8R(mm)(r^2=0.84)$로 지수적으로 증가하는 경향을 나타내었다. 유거수량은 토성별로 양토를 1.0으로 기준할 때 사양토가 0.86으로 가장 작았고, 식양토 1.09, 식토 1.15로 평가되어 침투수에 비해 토성별 차이가 크게 나타났다. 이는 토성이 세립질일 수록 유거수의 저항이 작기 때문으로 생각된다. 경사에 따라서는 경사도가 증가할수록 증가하였으며 $10\% 경사일 때를 기준으로 $Ro(mm)=Ro_{10}{\times}0.797{\times}e^{-0.021s(\%)}$로 나타났다.천성 승모판 폐쇄 부전등을 초래하는 심각한 선

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Work plan for flood disaster management considering climate changes (기후변화를 고려한 풍수해 재난관리 업무방향)

  • Shim, Kee-Oh;Yoo, Byung-Tae;Park, Kyoung-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.337-341
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    • 2009
  • 지구의 평균기온이 지속적으로 상승함에 따라 지구온난화로 인한 기후변화는 지구에 분포되어 있는 극지방의 빙하들을 녹임으로써 지구의 물 순환시스템을 교란시켜 집중호우와 태풍, 가뭄, 낙뢰 등 예측을 불허하는 극한 기상변화를 발생시키고 있다. 기후변화로 인해 바다의 수온이 상승함에 따라 빙하가 녹거나 바닷물이 팽창하여 해수면이 상승하게 되는 바, 1990년 대비 2000년대에 동해바다에서는 상승률이 0.07cm/yr이던것이 0.20cm/yr로 나타났으며, 서해바다에서는 0.14cm/yr이던 것이 0.18cm/yr로 나타났고, 남해바다에서는 0.32cm/yr이던 것이 0.34cm/yr 로 평균상승률이 1990년대에 비해 증가하는 것으로 관측되었다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화로 인한 자연재해 피해를 최소화하기 위해 소방방재청의 현행 업무를 중심으로 재해를 예방하기 위한 풍수해 업무별 추진해야할 연구과제들을 조사 제시하고자 하였다. 기후변화에 따른 재난분야의 정책과 관련된 연구적인 측면의 분야를 제시하기 위하여 최근에 나타난 자연재난 피해현상에 대한 원인 및 대책을 기초로 하여, 재난관리분야에서 추진하고 있는 업무를 계승 발전시킴으로써 기후변화로 인한 피해를 예방 또는 최소화 할 수 있는 방향으로 제시하고자 하였다. 기후변화에 따른 소방방재청의 풍수해 재난관리 분야 종합계획을 제시하기 위해 본 연구에서는 기후변화 관련 최근 국내 외의 동향을 먼저 살펴보았다. 1977년부터 2006년까지 우리나라 최근 30년간의 재해연보에 제시되어 있는 시설물별 피해액을 조사하여 시설물 중 피해액이 많은 순으로 주요피해 시설물을 파악하였다. 여기에서 주요피해 시설물로는 하천, 도로, 소하천, 수리, 농경지, 사방 등의 순으로 나타났다. 이러한 주요시설물에 대한 피해현황을 파악하기 위하여 대규모 풍수해 피해에 대한 현황, 원인분석 및 대책이 제시되어 있는 각종 피해조사 보고서, 연구보고서 및 전문 학술지 기사들을 수집 분석하였으며, 수집된 자료를 토대로 각각의 재해피해현상에 대하여 시설물의 피해현상, 원인 및 대책을 분류하여 분석하고자 한다. 재난관리 분야 중 우수유출저감시설 관련 제시된 업무방향을 보면 침투 저류를 위한 우수유출저감시설의 개발연구, 침수위험지구의 지정기준 등급별 방재대책 방안연구, 유역별 재해위험 저감능력의 평가기준 개발, 단위구역별 우수유출저감시설의 확보기준 연구, 우수유출저감시설의 국내 표준화 방안 연구, 우수유출저감시설 설치자에 대한 인센티브 도입방안 연구, 피해지역의 매입을 통한 저류지화 방안 연구, 우수유출저감시설 설치효과의 교육 홍보 및 우수유출저감시설의 국제 표준화 기준 제정 추진 등이 필요할 것으로 조사되었다. 여기에서 제시된 재난관리 업무분야별 많은 연구과제들이 향후 연구할 수 있는 재원확보로 이어져 재난관리의 업무발전에 도움이 될 수 있도록 하여야 하겠으며, 주요 결론으로는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 우리나라는 기후변화에 대해서는 기존에 소극적으로 대응하였으나 기후변화대책기획단을 만들어 적극적으로 대처하고 있으므로 기후변화와 관련된 여러분야가 활성화 될 것으로 판단된다. 둘째, 국외의 기후변화 대응사례에서 보면 시설물의 규모를 볼 때 큰 규모의 예산을 투입하는 것으로 판단되는바, 이는 향후의 불확실한 기후변화에 대비하는 선진적인 판단으로 검토되어야 할 것이다. 셋째, 풍수해 관련 주요업무 8가지에 대하여 추진해야할 업무방향 48개를 선정 제시하였다.

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Occurrence and Estimation Using Monte-Carlo Simulation of Aflatoxin $M_1$in Domestic Cow’s Milk and Milk Products (국내산 우유 및 유제품에서의 Aflatoxin $M_1$오염수준 및 Monte-Carlo Simulation을 이용한 발생 추정)

  • 박경진;이미영;노우섭;천석조;심추창;김창남;신은하;손동화
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.200-205
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    • 2001
  • In this study, occurrence of aflatoxin M$_1$(AEM$_1$) in domestic milk and milk products was determined. The level of AFM$_1$ in market milk (0.047 ppb) was lower than that in raw milk (0.083 pub) but this looks like that is due to dilution in collecting process rather than the effect of sterilization. In the case of nonfat dry milk, level of AFM$_1$appeared high by 0.24 ppb but it is thought to be not different from market milk actually because nonfat dry milk is diluted at intake. In the case of ice cream, finished products were contaminated with AFM$_1$of 0.020 ppd and also have the possibility of the contamination of AFB$_1$due to secondary raw material such as nuts and almond. On the basis of the results of this study and previous studies, Monte-Carlo simulation is conducted to estimate the contamination level of AFM$_1$in domestic market milk. To consider uncertainty and variability fitting procedure was passed through. And we used beta distribution to estimate the prevalence and triangular distribution to estimate the concentration level of AFM$_1$in milk. As a result, the 5%, 50% and 95% points of the distribution of the probability of AFM$_1$contamination level in milk is 0.0214, 0.0946 and 0.1888 ppb, respectively. Also we estimate that AFM$_1$in almost milk was low more than 0.5 ppb that is American acceptable level but 80.4% exceeded far 0.05 ppb that is European standard.

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