• Title/Summary/Keyword: 부분선형모형

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Nonlinear impact of temperature change on electricity demand: estimation and prediction using partial linear model (기온변화가 전력수요에 미치는 비선형적 영향: 부분선형모형을 이용한 추정과 예측)

  • Park, Jiwon;Seo, Byeongseon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.703-720
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    • 2019
  • The influence of temperature on electricity demand is increasing due to extreme weather and climate change, and the climate impacts involves nonlinearity, asymmetry and complexity. Considering changes in government energy policy and the development of the fourth industrial revolution, it is important to assess the climate effect more accurately for stable management of electricity supply and demand. This study aims to analyze the effect of temperature change on electricity demand using the partial linear model. The main results obtained using the time-unit high frequency data for meteorological variables and electricity consumption are as follows. Estimation results show that the relationship between temperature change and electricity demand involves complexity, nonlinearity and asymmetry, which reflects the nonlinear effect of extreme weather. The prediction accuracy of in-sample and out-of-sample electricity forecasting using the partial linear model evidences better predictive accuracy than the conventional model based on the heating and cooling degree days. Diebold-Mariano test confirms significance of the predictive accuracy of the partial linear model.

Regression diagnostics for response transformations in a partial linear model (부분선형모형에서 반응변수변환을 위한 회귀진단)

  • Seo, Han Son;Yoon, Min
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 2013
  • In the transformation of response variable in partial linear models outliers can cause a bad effect on estimating the transformation parameter, just as in the linear models. To solve this problem the processes of estimating transformation parameter and detecting outliers are needed, but have difficulties to be performed due to the arbitrariness of the nonparametric function included in the partial linear model. In this study, through the estimation of nonparametric function and outlier detection methods such as a sequential test and a maximum trimmed likelihood estimation, processes for transforming response variable robust to outliers in partial linear models are suggested. The proposed methods are verified and compared their effectiveness by simulation study and examples.

Variable selection in partial linear regression using the least angle regression (부분선형모형에서 LARS를 이용한 변수선택)

  • Seo, Han Son;Yoon, Min;Lee, Hakbae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.937-944
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    • 2021
  • The problem of selecting variables is addressed in partial linear regression. Model selection for partial linear models is not easy since it involves nonparametric estimation such as smoothing parameter selection and estimation for linear explanatory variables. In this work, several approaches for variable selection are proposed using a fast forward selection algorithm, least angle regression (LARS). The proposed procedures use t-test, all possible regressions comparisons or stepwise selection process with variables selected by LARS. An example based on real data and a simulation study on the performance of the suggested procedures are presented.

깁스표본기법을 이용한 설명변수 선택문제에서 사전분포의 설정-선형회귀모형을 중심으로-

  • 박종선;남궁평;한숙영
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.333-343
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    • 1997
  • 선형회귀분석에서 변수의 선택문제는 최적의 모형을 찾는데 아주 중요한 부분을 차지한다. George와 McCulloch(1993)는 계층적 베이즈 모형과 깁스표본법을 이용하여 선형회귀모형에서 변수를 선택하는 문제를 고려하였다. 이 논문에서는 George와 McCulloch의 모형을 바탕으로 각각의 설명변수가 모형에 포함될 사전확률을 객관적인 기준에 의하여 결정하는 문제를 고려하여 보았다.

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The Maximin Robust Design for the Uncertainty of Parameters of Michaelis-Menten Model (Michaelis-Menten 모형의 모수의 불확실성에 대한 Maximin 타입의 강건 실험)

  • Kim, Youngil;Jang, Dae-Heung;Yi, Seongbaek
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.7
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    • pp.1269-1278
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    • 2014
  • Despite the D-optimality criterion becomes very popular in designing an experiment for nonlinear models because of theoretical foundations it provides, it is very critical that the criterion depends on the unknown parameters of the nonlinear model. But some nonlinear models turned out to be partially nonlinear in sense that the optimal design depends on the subset of parameters only. It was a strong belief that the maximin approach to find a robust design to protect against the uncertainty of parameters is not guaranteed to be successful in nonlinear models. But the maximin approach could be a success for the partial nonlinear model, because often the optimal design depends on only one unknown value of parameter, easier to handle than the full parameters. We deal with maximin approach for Michaelis-Menten model with respect to D- and $D_s$-optimality.

웹에서 운영되는 그래프 모형을 위한 동적인 분석 시스템

  • 이우리;최현집
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.755-765
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    • 1998
  • 그래프 대수선형모형은 계층적 대수선형모형의 부분집합이며 연관 그래프로 모형을 나타낼 수 있다. 또한 그래프 대수선형모형은 연관 그래프에서 엣지를 추가하거나 제거하는 것으로 분석을 수행할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 그래프 대수선형모형이 가진 이러한 특징을 이용한 분석 시스템을 구현하였으며, 본 논문을 통해 이를 소개하고자 한다. 구현된 시스템은 분석자와 상호작용하며 분석결과를 시각적으로 평가할 수 있는 동적 연관 그래프를 제공하며, 단순한 마우스 조작에 의해 명령어 없이 자료입력만으로도 분석을 수행할 수 있도록 설계되었다. 또한 시스템은 자바 애플릿과 어플리케이션으로 구현되었기 때문에 월드 와이드 웹에서 운영할 수 있다.

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Comparing the performance of likelihood ratio test and F-test for gamma generalized linear models (감마 일반화 선형 모형에서의 가능도비 검정과 F-검정 비교연구)

  • Jo, Seongil;Han, Jeongseop;Lee, Woojoo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.475-484
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    • 2018
  • Gamma generalized linear models are useful for non-negative and skewed responses. However, these models have received less attention than Poisson and binomial generalized linear models. In particular, hypothesis testing for the significance of regression coefficients has not been thoroughly studied. In this paper we assess the performance of various test statistics for gamma generalized linear models based on numerical studies. Our results show that the likelihood ratio test and F-type test are generally recommended and that the partial deviance test should be avoided in practice.

A Fuzzy Linear Programming Problem with Fuzzy Convergent Equality Constraints (퍼지 융합 등식 제약식을 갖는 퍼지 선형계획법 문제)

  • Oh, Se-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.6 no.5
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    • pp.227-232
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    • 2015
  • The fuzzy linear programming(FLP) is the useful approach to many real world problems under uncertainty. This paper deals with a FLP whose objective value is fuzzy. And the right hand sides of convergent equality constraints are fuzzy numbers. We assume that the membership function of the objective value is piecewise linear and those of the right hand side are trapezoidal. Each of these trapezoidal functions can be algebraically replaced with three linear functions. Then the FLP problem is transformed into the Zimmermann's symmetric model. The fuzzy solution based on the max-min rule can be obtained by solving the crisp linear programming problem derived from the symmetric model. A numerical example has illustrated our approach. The application of our approach to the inconsistent linear system can enable generate us to get define the useful and flexible inexact solutions within acceptable tolerance. Further research is required to generalize the membership function.

Numerical Simulation of Mean Flows and Turbulent Structures of Partly-Vegetated Open-Channel Flows using the Nonlinear k-ε Model (비선형 k-ε 모형을 이용한 부분 식생 개수로 흐름의 평균흐름 및 난류구조 수치모의)

  • Choi, Seongwook;Choi, Sung-Uk;Kim, Taejoon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.813-820
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    • 2014
  • This study presents a numerical modeling of mean flow and turbulence structures of partly-vegetated open-channel flows. For this, Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations with vegetation drag terms are solved numerically using the non-linear k-${\varepsilon}$ model. The numerical model is applied to laboratory experiments of Nezu and Onitsuka (2001), and simulated results are compared with data from measurement and computations by Kang and Choi's (2006) Reynolds stress model. The simulation results indicate that the proposed numerical model simulates the mean flow well. Twin vortices are found to be generated at the interface between vegetated and non-vegetated zones, where turbulence intensity and Reynolds stress show their maximums. The model simulates the pattern of the Reynolds stress well but under-predicts the intensity of Reynolds stress slightly.

Hurdle Model for Longitudinal Zero-Inflated Count Data Analysis (영과잉 경시적 가산자료 분석을 위한 허들모형)

  • Jin, Iktae;Lee, Keunbaik
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.923-932
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    • 2014
  • The Hurdle model can to analyze zero-inflated count data. This model is a mixed model of the logit model for a binary component and a truncated Poisson model of a truncated count component. We propose a new hurdle model with a general heterogeneous random effects covariance matrix to analyze longitudinal zero-inflated count data using modified Cholesky decomposition. This decomposition factors the random effects covariance matrix into generalized autoregressive parameters and innovation variance. The parameters are modeled using (generalized) linear models and estimated with a Bayesian method. We use these methods to carefully analyze a real dataset.