• Title/Summary/Keyword: 변화폭

Search Result 3,622, Processing Time 0.034 seconds

The Storage Stability of Semi-Salted and Dried Mackerel by Free-Oxygen Absorber (탈산소제에 의한 반염건고등어 저장중의 품질안정성)

  • LEE Eung-Ho;CHUNG Young-Hoon;JOO Dong-Sik;KIM Jeong-Hee;OH Kwang-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
    • /
    • v.18 no.2
    • /
    • pp.131-138
    • /
    • 1985
  • The preservative effect of modified-atmosphere storage on the shelf-life of packed semi-salted and dried mackerel, Scomber japonicus, was examined. The semi-salted and dried mackerel fillets were packed in laminated plastic film bags (polyester/nylon/casted polypropylene: $12{\mu}m/15{\mu}m/60{\mu}m,\;15{\times}16cm$) filled with air (control, C), nitrogen gas (N), deoxygenized air (O) prepared by using free-oxygen absorber enclosed in the bag, in vacuum(V), and stored at $5^{\circ}C$. The quality of packed sample during the storage were examined in terms of viable cell counts of bacteria, thiobarbituric acid(TBA) value, perozide value(POV), volatile basic nitrogen(VBN), trimethylamine(TMA), adenosine triphosphate(ATP) and its related compounds and sensory evaluation. The results obtained are as follows: The pH of all the samples was in the range of $6.1{\pm}0.2$, and the contents of VBN and amino nitrogen of them increased during storage. In color values, L value(lightness) decreased while a and b values (red and yellow) revealed a tendency to increase during storage. The viable cell counts of the control sample(C) increased to $3.0{\times}10^6/g$ after 15 days storage but those of the other samples(V, N and O)were in the range of $2{\sim}6{\times}10^5/g$ after 20 days storage. The content of TMA increased during storage, but the histamine content showed a little change during storage and its content of all samples were less than 16 mg/100g. The inosinic acid(IMP) was rapidly degraded while inosine and hypoxanthine increased during storage. The TBA value of the control(C) reached a peak in 9 days and then decreased gradually while that of the sample(O) showed a little change during storage. The changes in POV of all the samples during storage showed a similar tendency to the TBA value. Fatty acid composition of raw mackerel consists of $35.6\%$ of saturated acid, $30.3\%$ of monoenoic acid and $34.2\%$ of polyenoic acid. The major fatty acid of the sample products were oleic acid($C_{18:1}$), palmitic acid($C_{16:0}$), docosahexaenoic acid($C_{22:6}$). The contents of polyenoic acid such as $C_{22:6},\;C_{20:5}$ decreased during storage while the other fatty acids showed a little change. From the results of sensory evaluation, the shelf-life of the control sample(C) was about 7 days and that of sample(V), (N) and (O) was about 15 days. It was concluded that deoxygenized atmosphere(free-oxygen absorber enclosed in the bag) was a good condition for preserving the quality of semi-salted and dried mackerel.

  • PDF

Optimization of Modified Starches on Retrogradation of Korean Rice Cake(Garaeduk) (가래떡의 노화 억제에 관한 변형 전분의 최적화)

  • Park, Hyun-Jeong;Song, Jae-Chul;Shin, Wan-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Food And Nutrition
    • /
    • v.19 no.3
    • /
    • pp.279-287
    • /
    • 2006
  • This study was carried out to investigate the influences of modified starches on suppression of retrogradation in Korean rice cake for their optimization, Garaeduk. Based upon studying Avrami equation, the Avrami exponent n value of all the experiment samples was found to be 1.03 ${\sim}$ 1.37 in the influence of modified starches on retrogradation of the rice cake. This means that the retrogradation of the Korean rice cake occurred instantly after the crystallization of starch particles in the Korean rice cake formulated by modified starches. The highest Avrami exponent n value was indicated in the control sample. The rate constant k of retrogradation in the Korean rice cake formulated by modified starches showed comparatively low and appeared to be the lowest in the Korean rice cake formulated by SHPP. This tendency was shown well in the time constant(1/k) of retrogradation velocity. According to the DSC analysis, the onset temperature of gelatinization in thermal characteristics showed somewhat high in case of addition of modified starch into the Korean rice cake on storage time and the SHPP was slowly gone up. In peak temperature of gelatinization in thermal characteristics of the DSC analysis, SSOS and ASA were increased a little in comparison with the control. The control was comparatively high increase. Melting enthalphy of all samples added with modified starches (SSOS: 21.1${\rightarrow}$23.7${\rightarrow}$24.1, ASA: 21.1${\rightarrow}$24.8${\rightarrow}$25.4) appeared to be lower than that of the Korean rice cake without modified starches(21.2${\rightarrow}$26.1${\rightarrow}$27.1). The Korean rice cake added with SHPP was shown to be the lowest in the increasing rate of melting enthalpy(20.9${\rightarrow}$21.4${\rightarrow}$22.1). Heat spreadability of all the samples in Martin melting diameter was revealed to be good in order of control, ASA, SSOS, SHPP and especially the Korean rice cake added with SHPP was shown to be the best in heat spreadability. In color, sensory examination and textural characteristic of the Korean rice cake added with modified starches, the L$^*$value was not changed practically with the storage time and seemed to be stable. The a$^*$ value of the samples was followed by control(2.21${\rightarrow}$5.34: 141.6%), ASA (2.01${\rightarrow}$4.22: 110.0%), SSOS (2.78${\rightarrow}$4.87: 75.2%) and SHPP (2.12${\rightarrow}$3.40: 60.4%) in order of color change. Also the b$^*$ value of the samples was followed by control(4.32${\rightarrow}$6.35: 47.0%), ASA (4.66${\rightarrow}$5.73: 23.0%), SSOS (4.90${\rightarrow}$5.89: 20.2%) and SHPP (4.89${\rightarrow}$5.12: 4.7%) and there was the least (or no) color change with the SHPP. Textural characteristics of samples was shown to be the highest in case of modified starch addition and especially SHPP appeared to be the best in texture.

Spatio-temporal Fluctuations with Influences of Inflowing Tributary Streams on Water Quality in Daecheong Reservoir (대청호의 시공간적 수질 변화 특성 및 호수내 유입지천의 영향)

  • Kim, Gyung-Hyun;Lee, Jae-Hoon;An, Kwang-Guk
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
    • /
    • v.45 no.2
    • /
    • pp.158-173
    • /
    • 2012
  • The objectives of this study were to analyze the longitudinal gradient and temporal variations of water quality in Daecheong Reservoir in relation to the major inflowing streams from the watershed, during 2001~2010. For the study, we selected 7 main-stream sites of the reservoir along the main axis of the reservoir, from the headwater to the dam and 8 tributary streams. In-reservoir nutrients of TN and TP showed longitudinal declines from the headwater to the dam, which results in a distinct zonation of the riverine ($R_z$, M1~M3), transition ($T_z$, M4~M6), and lacustrine zone ($L_z$, M7) in water quality, as shown in other foreign reservoirs. Chlorophyll-a (CHL) and BOD as an indicator of organic matter, were maximum in the $T_z$. Concentration of total phosphorus (TP) was the highest (8.52 $mg\;L^{-1}$) on March in the $R_z$, and was the highest (165 ${\mu}g\;L^{-1}$) in the $L_z$ on July. Values of TN was the maximum (377 ${\mu}g\;L^{-1}$) on August in the $R_z$, and was the highest (3.76 $mg\;L^{-1}$) in the $L_z$ on August. Ionic dilution was evident during September~October, after the monsoon rain. The mean ratios of TN : TP, as an indicator of limiting factor, were 88, which indicates that nitrogen is a surplus for phytoplankton growth in this system. Nutrient analysis of inflowing streams showed that major nutrient sources were headwater streams of T1~T2 and Ockcheon-Stream of T5, and the most influential inflowing stream to the reservoir was T5, which is located in the mid-reservoir, and is directly influenced by the waste-water treatment plants. The key parameters, influenced by the monsoon rain, were TP and suspended solids (SS). Empirical models of trophic variables indicated that variations of CHL in the $R_z$ ($R^2$=0.044, p=0.264) and $T_z$ ($R^2$=0.126, p=0.054) were not accounted by TN, but were significant (p=0.032) in the $L_z$. The variation of the log-transformed $I_r$-CHL was not accounted ($R^2$=0.258, p=0.110) by $I_w$-TN of inflowing streams, but was determined ($R^2$=0.567, p=0.005) by $I_w$-TP of inflowing streams. In other words, TP inputs from the inflowing streams were the major determinants on the in-reservoir phytoplankton growth. Regression analysis of TN : TP suggested that the ratio was determined by P, rather than N. Overall, our data suggest that TP and suspended solids, during the summer flood period, should be reduced from the eutrophication control and P-input from Ockcheon-Stream should be controlled for water quality improvement.

The Study of Dinning-out Behavior and Preference on Korean Foods by Age Groups (외식소비자의 연령별 외식행동과 한식에 대한 선호도 조사연구 - 서울, 경기, 천안 지역을 중심으로 -)

  • Yoon, Hei-Ryeo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
    • /
    • v.20 no.5
    • /
    • pp.608-614
    • /
    • 2005
  • The object of this research is to analyze and classify the dining-out behavior and preference on Korean food by age groups and to make counter proposals for better marketing and planning strategies. Major dining out motives were lack of time, the easiness of preparation, and schedule. For lunch, the schedule was the major dining-out motive. For dinner, the respondents in their 30s and below answered social gathering was their major dining-out motive (40.7% and 31.3% respectively). On the other hand, for the respondents in their 40s and 50s, the family gathering was the major dining motive (50.4% and 55.3% respectively) (${\chi}^{2}=68.081,\;p<0.001$). For dining out frequency, 1-2 dining out per a week had the highest percentage, among which the respondents in their 30s was 42.9% (the highest) and the respondents in their 50s was 18% (the lowest). For the dining-out cost, the respondents in their 30s and below spent more on dinner rather than breakfast or lunch. For the menu preference of Korean foods, Doenjangjigae had the highest percentage. In case of Kimchi, the respondents in their 40s showed higher preference than the respondents in their 30s. Interestingly, the preference for Kimchi was higher in the respondents younger than 30 rather than in the respondents in their 30s. and the respondents older than 40 (p<0.05). Preference for Jangachi was considerably low in the respondents younger than 40, which implies that younger people don't incline to traditional Korean Mitbanchan. The dining-out motive was different in each age group. Now, the dining out motive is not restricted to home meal replacement. Social gatherings are increasing and the consumers of dining-out industry are being diversified. These suggest the increased need for classifying and analyzing the consumers by age groups to get more information on consumer behavior and tastes.

The Effect of Deep Layer Split Application of Nitrogen Fertilizer on the Growth of Rice Plant (질소비료(窒素肥料)의 심층추비시용(深層追肥施用)이 수도생육(水稻生育)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • Maeng, D.W.;Kim, W.C.
    • Applied Biological Chemistry
    • /
    • v.20 no.1
    • /
    • pp.147-155
    • /
    • 1977
  • In this experiment, we expected yield increase depending on the control of ineffective tiller, heightening of effective tillering ratio and continuous supply of nitrogen until later growth stage of rice plant by deep layer split application. Treats were applied at Tongil and Jinheung variety, clayey loam and sandy loam soil, and drained and non-drained condition. Nitrogenous fertilizer application wab adopted as liquefied(50%) and lumped (50% and 80%) fertilizer at 12cm depth of soil before 35 days of rice heading time against the standard soil surface application. The results are summarized as follaw. 1. a. Jinheung showed great variant width of tiller numbers per rice plant growth stage, and low effective tillering ratio at soil surface dressing. But in the case of deep layer split application, the number of tiller increased normally, and effective tillering ratio was high. b. At Tonsil, the width of increase and decrease range of effective tiller number between soil surface dressing and deep layer split application was not so high as Jinheung. Deep layer split application of 80% lumped fertilizer showed maximum effective tillering ratio ($83%{\sim}93%$). C. In the case of Jinheung, it was supposed that deep layer split application of 80% lumped fertilizer was excessive nitrogen quantity. d. Effective tillering ratio was higher than Tonsil at Jinheung. 2. The number of grains per hill was increased by the deep layer split application, but the ripening ratio was decreased inversely with the increase of total grain number. 3. Length of top leaves was elongated at Jinheung by deep layer split application. It showed significant correlation between top leaves length and grain yield. 4. Deep layer split application inclosed N content of harvested straw. Yield and N content of straw showed possitive correlation. 5. The ratio of unhulled grain yield per straw weight was increased by deep layer splication. This ratio was higher at Jinheung than Tonsil. 6. Grain yield was appeared in order of 80% lumped fertilizer>50% lumped fertilizer>50% liquefied fertilizer>surface dressing by the deep layer split application. The yield increasing factors were the increasing of effective tillering ratio, number of panicles per hill and number of ripening grains per hill. 7. Grain yield was increased at Tongil in sandy loam soil and at Jinheung in clayey loam soil by deep layer split application. 8. The grain yield was increased at drained conditions of clayey loam soil and non-drained conditions of sandy loam soil. But in the case of 80% lumped fertilizer of deep layer split application at the sandy loam soil, the yield was not increased at non-drained conditions. 9. The effect of yield increase by deep layer split application comparing with the surface dressing was higher at Tonsil than ginheung, in spite of low ripening ratio of Tonsil caused by low temperature at heading and harvesting time.

  • PDF

Lipid Contents Characteristics of Gene Accumulate in Rice (벼 유전자 집적에 따른 지질함량 특성)

  • 윤경민;홍순관
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
    • /
    • v.15 no.3
    • /
    • pp.177-187
    • /
    • 2002
  • In our experiment, selected mutants were used which showed not only the phenotype of a specific unpolished rice but also phenotypes of EM 40, LO 1050, and TAL 214. Reciprocal crosses between the mutants were conducted to select strains which would have more quantity of lipids than before. The constitution of fatty acid was also tested to figure out nutritional aspects of the mutants. In the crossing between EM 40 mutants and mutants (LO 1050) having a thick aleurone layer, the expression of EM 40 mutants has no relation with the thickness of the aleurone layer. And the lipid content of new F$_2$ strains through the crossing is 4.15 %. The lipid content is larger than those of the parents including Kinmaze and in other crossings of this experiment. This is attributed to the fact that the new F$_2$ strains are the products of the crossing between genes responsible for the size of buds, where lipid is accumulated, and genes accountable for the thickness of the aleurone layer. In the crossing between EM 40 mutants and TAL 214 mutants, lipid content of the new F$_2$ strains is 3.8 %, higher than 2.92 % of TAL 214 mutants. But the degree of lipid increase is smaller than in two other crossings. This is probably because genes expressing the phenotypes of TAL 214 affect the size of EM 40, which gets smaller. The aleurone layer of the new F$_2$ strains is 12 $\mu\textrm{m}$ thicker than the layer of TAL 214 mutants, but 6 $\mu\textrm{m}$ thinner than that of parents (LO 1050) having a thick aleurone layer. This seems to be affected by the size of a microscope. The phenotype of the new F$_2$ strains appears to be similar to that of TAL 214. The lipid content of the new F$_2$ strains is 3.85 %, larger than 2.92 % of TAL 214 and 3.01 % of LO 1050. The increase may be due to the aleurone layer of LO 1050. And the size of the bud of the unpolished rice, though it is not big enough like that of LO 1050, seems to be affected by the accumulation of genes in the thick aleurone layer. The accumulation may contribute to the increase in the content of lipid. When it comes to the constitution of fatty acid, there is little difference between parents like Kinmaze and the new F$_2$ strains. But oleic acid increases while linoleic acid decreases. And the decrease in the linolenic acid seems to contribute to the increase in lipid content. This fact also raises the possibility that genes accountable for specific phenotypes could change the quality of rice if the genes are accumulated. Now, experiments on strains which have large lipid content in EM 40 type 1(ge-1, 3.68 %), EM type 2(ge-2, 2.91 %), thick aleurone layer(4.63 %), and starch layer(3.44 %) are under way to figure out the effects of gene accumulation. These experiments are likely to present the ways for increasing the lipid content.

Impact of Shortly Acquired IPO Firms on ICT Industry Concentration (ICT 산업분야 신생기업의 IPO 이후 인수합병과 산업 집중도에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, YoungBong;Kwon, YoungOk
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.26 no.3
    • /
    • pp.51-69
    • /
    • 2020
  • Now, it is a stylized fact that a small number of technology firms such as Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and a few others have become larger and dominant players in an industry. Coupled with the rise of these leading firms, we have also observed that a large number of young firms have become an acquisition target in their early IPO stages. This indeed results in a sharp decline in the number of new entries in public exchanges although a series of policy reforms have been promulgated to foster competition through an increase in new entries. Given the observed industry trend in recent decades, a number of studies have reported increased concentration in most developed countries. However, it is less understood as to what caused an increase in industry concentration. In this paper, we uncover the mechanisms by which industries have become concentrated over the last decades by tracing the changes in industry concentration associated with a firm's status change in its early IPO stages. To this end, we put emphasis on the case in which firms are acquired shortly after they went public. Especially, with the transition to digital-based economies, it is imperative for incumbent firms to adapt and keep pace with new ICT and related intelligent systems. For instance, after the acquisition of a young firm equipped with AI-based solutions, an incumbent firm may better respond to a change in customer taste and preference by integrating acquired AI solutions and analytics skills into multiple business processes. Accordingly, it is not unusual for young ICT firms become an attractive acquisition target. To examine the role of M&As involved with young firms in reshaping the level of industry concentration, we identify a firm's status in early post-IPO stages over the sample periods spanning from 1990 to 2016 as follows: i) being delisted, ii) being standalone firms and iii) being acquired. According to our analysis, firms that have conducted IPO since 2000s have been acquired by incumbent firms at a relatively quicker time than those that did IPO in previous generations. We also show a greater acquisition rate for IPO firms in the ICT sector compared with their counterparts in other sectors. Our results based on multinomial logit models suggest that a large number of IPO firms have been acquired in their early post-IPO lives despite their financial soundness. Specifically, we show that IPO firms are likely to be acquired rather than be delisted due to financial distress in early IPO stages when they are more profitable, more mature or less leveraged. For those IPO firms with venture capital backup have also become an acquisition target more frequently. As a larger number of firms are acquired shortly after their IPO, our results show increased concentration. While providing limited evidence on the impact of large incumbent firms in explaining the change in industry concentration, our results show that the large firms' effect on industry concentration are pronounced in the ICT sector. This result possibly captures the current trend that a few tech giants such as Alphabet, Apple and Facebook continue to increase their market share. In addition, compared with the acquisitions of non-ICT firms, the concentration impact of IPO firms in early stages becomes larger when ICT firms are acquired as a target. Our study makes new contributions. To our best knowledge, this is one of a few studies that link a firm's post-IPO status to associated changes in industry concentration. Although some studies have addressed concentration issues, their primary focus was on market power or proprietary software. Contrast to earlier studies, we are able to uncover the mechanism by which industries have become concentrated by placing emphasis on M&As involving young IPO firms. Interestingly, the concentration impact of IPO firm acquisitions are magnified when a large incumbent firms are involved as an acquirer. This leads us to infer the underlying reasons as to why industries have become more concentrated with a favor of large firms in recent decades. Overall, our study sheds new light on the literature by providing a plausible explanation as to why industries have become concentrated.

Development of a Traffic Accident Prediction Model and Determination of the Risk Level at Signalized Intersection (신호교차로에서의 사고예측모형개발 및 위험수준결정 연구)

  • 홍정열;도철웅
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.20 no.7
    • /
    • pp.155-166
    • /
    • 2002
  • Since 1990s. there has been an increasing number of traffic accidents at intersection. which requires more urgent measures to insure safety on intersection. This study set out to analyze the road conditions, traffic conditions and traffic operation conditions on signalized intersection. to identify the elements that would impose obstructions in safety, and to develop a traffic accident prediction model to evaluate the safety of an intersection using the cop relation between the elements and an accident. In addition, the focus was made on suggesting appropriate traffic safety policies by dealing with the danger elements in advance and on enhancing the safety on the intersection in developing a traffic accident prediction model fir a signalized intersection. The data for the study was collected at an intersection located in Wonju city from January to December 2001. It consisted of the number of accidents, the road conditions, the traffic conditions, and the traffic operation conditions at the intersection. The collected data was first statistically analyzed and then the results identified the elements that had close correlations with accidents. They included the area pattern, the use of land, the bus stopping activities, the parking and stopping activities on the road, the total volume, the turning volume, the number of lanes, the width of the road, the intersection area, the cycle, the sight distance, and the turning radius. These elements were used in the second correlation analysis. The significant level was 95% or higher in all of them. There were few correlations between independent variables. The variables that affected the accident rate were the number of lanes, the turning radius, the sight distance and the cycle, which were used to develop a traffic accident prediction model formula considering their distribution. The model formula was compared with a general linear regression model in accuracy. In addition, the statistics of domestic accidents were investigated to analyze the distribution of the accidents and to classify intersections according to the risk level. Finally, the results were applied to the Spearman-rank correlation coefficient to see if the model was appropriate. As a result, the coefficient of determination was highly significant with the value of 0.985 and the ranks among the intersections according to the risk level were appropriate too. The actual number of accidents and the predicted ones were compared in terms of the risk level and they were about the same in the risk level for 80% of the intersections.

Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.23 no.2
    • /
    • pp.107-122
    • /
    • 2017
  • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

A Study on the Forest Yield Regulation by Systems Analysis (시스템분석(分析)에 의(依)한 삼림수확조절(森林收穫調節)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Cho, Eung-hyouk
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
    • /
    • v.4 no.2
    • /
    • pp.344-390
    • /
    • 1977
  • The purpose of this paper was to schedule optimum cutting strategy which could maximize the total yield under certain restrictions on periodic timber removals and harvest areas from an industrial forest, based on a linear programming technique. Sensitivity of the regulation model to variations in restrictions has also been analyzed to get information on the changes of total yield in the planning period. The regulation procedure has been made on the experimental forest of the Agricultural College of Seoul National University. The forest is composed of 219 cutting units, and characterized by younger age group which is very common in Korea. The planning period is devided into 10 cutting periods of five years each, and cutting is permissible only on the stands of age groups 5-9. It is also assumed in the study that the subsequent forests are established immediately after cutting existing forests, non-stocked forest lands are planted in first cutting period, and established forests are fully stocked until next harvest. All feasible cutting regimes have been defined to each unit depending on their age groups. Total yield (Vi, k) of each regime expected in the planning period has been projected using stand yield tables and forest inventory data, and the regime which gives highest Vi, k has been selected as a optimum cutting regime. After calculating periodic yields and cutting areas, and total yield from the optimum regimes selected without any restrictions, the upper and lower limits of periodic yields(Vj-max, Vj-min) and those of periodic cutting areas (Aj-max, Aj-min) have been decided. The optimum regimes under such restrictions have been selected by linear programming. The results of the study may be summarized as follows:- 1. The fluctuations of periodic harvest yields and areas under cutting regimes selected without restrictions were very great, because of irregular composition of age classes and growing stocks of existing stands. About 68.8 percent of total yield is expected in period 10, while none of yield in periods 6 and 7. 2. After inspection of the above solution, restricted optimum cutting regimes were obtained under the restrictions of Amin=150 ha, Amax=400ha, $Vmin=5,000m^3$ and $Vmax=50,000m^3$, using LP regulation model. As a result, about $50,000m^3$ of stable harvest yield per period and a relatively balanced age group distribution is expected from period 5. In this case, the loss in total yield was about 29 percent of that of unrestricted regimes. 3. Thinning schedule could be easily treated by the model presented in the study, and the thinnings made it possible to select optimum regimes which might be effective for smoothing the wood flows, not to speak of increasing total yield in the planning period. 4. It was known that the stronger the restrictions becomes in the optimum solution the earlier the period comes in which balanced harvest yields and age group distribution can be formed. There was also a tendency in this particular case that the periodic yields were strongly affected by constraints, and the fluctuations of harvest areas depended upon the amount of periodic yields. 5. Because the total yield was decreased at the increasing rate with imposing stronger restrictions, the Joss would be very great where strict sustained yield and normal age group distribution are required in the earlier periods. 6. Total yield under the same restrictions in a period was increased by lowering the felling age and extending the range of cutting age groups. Therefore, it seemed to be advantageous for producing maximum timber yield to adopt wider range of cutting age groups with the lower limit at which the smallest utilization size of timber could be produced. 7. The LP regulation model presented in the study seemed to be useful in the Korean situation from the following point of view: (1) The model can provide forest managers with the solution of where, when, and how much to cut in order to best fulfill the owners objective. (2) Planning is visualized as a continuous process where new strateges are automatically evolved as changes in the forest environment are recognized. (3) The cost (measured as decrease in total yield) of imposing restrictions can be easily evaluated. (4) Thinning schedule can be treated without difficulty. (5) The model can be applied to irregular forests. (6) Traditional regulation methods can be rainforced by the model.

  • PDF