• Title/Summary/Keyword: 변동요인

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온라인 단기 부하예측

  • 김사현;황갑주
    • 전기의세계
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.272-280
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    • 1985
  • 전력계통의 목표를 달성하기 위한 기본적인 요청은 시시각각으로 변동되는 전력부하를 확실하게 예측하는 일부터 시작된다. 그런데 전력부하는 온도, 습도, 광도 등 예측일의 기상요인은 물론 산업구조, 경기변동의 사회적인 요인에 의해 변화된다. 또한 온라인 예측시는 자동급전시스템의 여건이나 예측주기에 따라 각각 고려해야 할 사항이 다양하므로 정확도가 높으면서도 안정된 결정적인 예측기법을 찾기가 어렵다. 그러나 주어진 계통과 이용할 수 있는 여건을 바탕으로 했을때의 허용정도 및 자동화등 실제 적용면에서 보다 나은 예측기법은 생각될 수 있다. 필자들은 우리나라 계통을 대상으로 자동급전시스템(AGC/SCADA system)에 의해 온라인 리얼타임으로 취득해온 부하데이터를 이용하여 자유자재 (interactive)기능을 내포한 단기 부하예측 팩키지를 개발한 바 있으며 이에 소개하는 바이다.

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A Study on the fluctuation Factors Influenced on the Computation of interior Cost (인테리어 공사비 산정에 영향을 주는 변동요인에 관한 연구)

  • 정재은;권영성
    • Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
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    • no.16
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    • pp.75-81
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    • 1998
  • With the rise of the economic level and the improvement of the standard of living the size of the interior work is becoming large and specialized, With the recent opening of the domestic interior decoration market the order of the large-scale interior decoration work is actively received and its efficient construction is vigorously made. Accordingly reliability is required in keeping with all the accuracy of computing interior construction expenses systematically is importantly emerging. The estimation sheet written in a kind of process mode and in an area made as the construction expense breakdown mode were statistically treated and analyzed as well as quantity computation breakdown data. In determing the major factors that expert an influence on the factors of changes in construction expenses as well as the compositional ratio of construction work that becomes basic material for developing the cost model of interior decoration work the following conclusion could be made: Improvement should be made to suit the present situation by synthesizing and arranging the data practically used in current interior construction expenses. Required construction expenses for the kind of work common to each construction field are showing a given proportion and the required construction expenses of rather small scale interior construction work tend to be irregular. It is necessary to compute optimal construction expenses by calculating the optimal period of work and working personnel in consideration of the influential factor in each work.

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Analysis of the Hwacheon dam inflow using hydrological sensitivity method (수문학적 민감도분석기법을 이용한 화천댐 유입량 분석)

  • Kim, Sang Ug
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.276-276
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    • 2020
  • 공유하천유역에서의 수자원 관리는 두 국가의 제도적 및 기술적 차이로 인하여 다른 유역에서의 수자원 관리보다 복잡하고 어렵다. 특히 두 국가 사이의 공유하천에서의 유량의 변화는 실질적인 측정을 이용하여 면밀하게 측정됨으로써 신뢰도 높은 자료를 통해 지속적으로 분석되어야 궁극적으로 공유하천에 대한 두 국가 간의 이해관계를 바탕으로 한 대책을 수립할 수 있다. 북한강 유역의 상류유역은 북한에 속해 있고, 특히 임남댐 건설 이후 화천댐 유입량은 지속적으로 감소하고 있어 이에 대한 물순환 영향을 면밀히 분석하고 대책을 수립할 필요가 있다. 물순환에 영향을 미치는 원인과 결과를 분석하는 기존의 연구들은 대부분 강우-유출모형을 사용하고 있어 모형의 구축 및 매개변수의 보정과 검증에 많은 노력이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 수문기상자료만을 이용하여 유량의 변동성분을 정량화할 수 있는 수문학적 민감도 분석기법을 화천댐 상류유역에 적용하고 화천댐 유입량에 대한 1967년~017년 동안의 변동량을 자연적 요인과 인위적 요인으로 분리하여 제시하였다. 다양한 변동점 탐색기법을 사용한 결과 1999년이 통계적으로 유의한 변동점으로 탐색되었으며, 이를 활용하여 수문학적 민감도 분석을 5가지의 Budyko 함수를 이용하여 산정한 결과 평균적으로 18.99 억 ㎥/y의 유입량 감소가 임남댐 건설로 인하여 발생된 것을 알 수 있었다. 이와 같은 결과는 기존 연구자들의 화천댐 유입량 감소량에 비해 다소 크게 산정된 결과이며, 이는 2000년대 이후 증가된 강우량 및 화천댐유입량의 감소가 주된 영향을 미친 결과로 추정된다. 향후 월별, 계절별 단위의 분석이 추가로 연구될 필요가 있으며, 미래의 기후변화 상황을 고려한 예측을 통한 실효성 있는 계획이 수립될 필요가 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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A Study on the Application of Measures of Travel Time Variability by Analysis of Travel Time Distribution According to Weather Factor (기상요인에 따른 통행시간 분포 분석을 통한 통행시간 변동성 지표의 적정성 연구)

  • Kim, Jun-Won;Kim, Young-Chan
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2015
  • Travellers consider extra travel time to be arriving their destination because of uncertainty of travel. So it is important to make predictable highway by providing information of travel time variability to traveller so as to enhance level of service at highway. In order to make predictable highway, it is necessary to develope measures of travel time variability that travellers can easily understand. Recently advanced country including the United States, travel time variability index are actively studied. In earlier study, 95percentile of travel time is considered to be most important calculation index of travel time variability. In this study, is has focused on the propriety analysis of 95percentile of travel time in domestic transportation environment. Result of analysis, All of measures(80percentile of travel time, 90percentile of travel time, 95percentile of travel time) show the tendency to increase when case of weather factor occur compare to normal condition under LOS A~D. Especially 95percentile of travel time increased sensitively.

A Study of the Variation Factors of Intraocular Pressure (안압 변동 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Moon
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.131-135
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: To measure and quantify the factors of intraocular pressure (IOP) variation for normal Korean youth. Methods: The IOP of normal youth 805 persons (male: 367, female: 438) were measured as a function of time and quantity for fixation, reclining posture, hard blinking, drinking water, drinking hard liquor, tobacco and coffee by using non-contact tonometer (AT555, Reichert Co.). In the case of fixation, reclining posture and hard blinking, the intraocular pressure of right and left eye were measured for 6 males and 6 females every 10 minutes during 30 minute. In the case of water, liquor, tobacco and coffee, the measurement for 4 or 5 groups (6 persons/ group) having similar IOP were done for the IOP variation of right eye. Results: The mean IOP was 15.2 mmHg for males and 15.8 mmHg for females (slightly higher than male's), respectively and the 99% of those were in the range of the normal IOP. The measured IOP was increased by fixation, reclining posture and hard blinking with males and females. The gradient of increasing slope was 0.15/0.13/0.07/0.08, 0.09/0.08/0.08/0.08 and 0.19/0.08/0.26/0.31, respectively. The IOP variation was elevated by drinking water (especially in the case of 1000 ml) and lowered in proportion to the amount of drinking by hard liquor. Cigarette smoking was associated with rise in intra ocular pressure, but was not shown a definite relation. And coffee had virtually no effect. Conclusions: Fixation, reclining posture, hard blinking and Tobacco caused a transient increase in IOP, but alcohol elicited a slight reduction in IOP overall.

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A Study of Characteristics of Business Cycle in the Jeju Region (제주지역 경기변동의 특성 연구)

  • Kang, Min-Seo;Kang, Gi-Choon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.420-426
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine the business cycle in the Jeju region and what differences exist in relation to the nation as a whole, to calculate the relative importance between the random walk stochastic trend and cyclical factor, and to find out its causes and implications. Results of empirical analysis found that the characteristics of the business cycle in the Jeju region were as follows: First, the Jeju region, which is likely to have a growth component of the economy such as technological development and the accumulation of capital, was projected to have a possibility of high growth due to a greater proportion of the stochastic trend factor(46.8%) than the entire country(27.8%). Secondly, employment fluctuation in Jeju, which varies from 0.007 to 0.058 depending on the model, was lowest compared to the fluctuation of other indicators. The employment market in Jeju remained firm, showing that it is not smooth enough to create new jobs despite the production growth in industry. Third, the tourism industry was acting as a stabilizing factor, whereas the mining and manufacturing production was the opposite of tourism industry. This implies that the mining and manufacturing production was based on a weak foundation.

Effects of Hydrogeomorphology and Watershed Land Cover on Water Quality in Korean Reservoirs (우리나라 저수지 수질에 미치는 수문지형 및 유역 토지피복의 영향)

  • Cho, Hyunsuk;Cho, Hyung-Jin;Cho, Kang-Hyun
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.79-88
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    • 2019
  • In order to study the water quality status and its causal environmental factors, the water quality variables of chemical oxygen demand (COD), chlorophyll a (Chl a), Total phosphorus (TP), and total nitrogen (TN), the hydrogeomorphologic variables of water level fluctuation, total water storage, dam elevation, watershed area, and shoreline development index, and the land cover variables of forest, agricultural area, and urbanized area in the watershed were investigated in total 73 reservoirs with various operational purposes, water level fluctuation and geographical distribution in South Korea. The water quality was more eutrophic in the reservoirs of the more urbanized and agricultural area in the watershed, the low altitude, the narrow water level fluctuation, the narrowed watershed area, and the more circular shape. In terms of the purposes of reservoir operation, the reservoirs for agricultural irrigation were more eutrophic than the reservoirs for flood control. The results of the variable selection and path analysis showed that COD determined by Chl a and TP was directly affected by water level fluctuation and the shoreline development of the reservoirs. TP was directly affected by the urbanized area of the watershed which was related to the elevation of the reservoir. TP was also influenced by the water level fluctuation and the shoreline development. In conclusion, the eutrophication of the reservoirs in Korea would be influenced by the land use of the watershed, hydrological and geographical characteristics of the reservoir, water level fluctuation by the anthropogenic management according to the reservoir operation purpose, and the location of the reservoirs.