• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.1-23
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• 2014

Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.9-20
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• 2008

The government is planning to link a small park with the soon to be ready subway line 9 as a part of Seoul's policy, "The standard or plan for making a water-friendly space by water use" (2007). However, the specified concepts and instructions of the small parks need further work. Therefore, the policy is expected to expand to neighboring small parks near the subway station, but these are not supported by research or data which suggests the needs or actual user behavior and utilization of small parks. our country added the specified concept of small parks and theme parks to the classification of urban parks in the Urban Park Act Revision (2005.3.31), but the concept of small parks is not clearly settled in the law in the scopes of its function, scale, promotion nor particularly defined plans for small park projects. This study examines as small park near a subway station. The characteristics of there region and users vary from the characteristics of the station and region. In the "directions for concrete standards under the types of urban parks and green zones" (2007.2) the types of small parks are classified by "regional characteristics" and "user characteristics". Therefore, this study classifies the subject of neighboring small parks near subway stations as the neighborhood and small urban parks according to the Urban Park Act. The study was paralleled with observation and questionnaires on the analysis of the neighborhood and small urban parks. The actual conditions of park utilization and user behavioral characteristics were deducted by observation, while the questionnaire determined actual user utilization, importance and satisfaction level as well as the small park environment. This study largely focused on three aspects: park facility, design of this sentence isn't even complete. The second aspect isn't finished and the third isn't here.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.83-97
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• 2011

In this study, space allocation with an assessment system for improving the function of the ecological use and function of each space was undertaken to suggest appropriate goals and directions. Ogeum Park, used as the study site, is a stronghold green zone located in the fan-shaped area of the Songpa-gu green zone on a 22ha area site. The assessment system for this study consisted of a total of 3 steps: Step 1 includes the division of the spatial block, Step 2 assesses the proper functioning of each spatial block, while Step 3 includes space allocation and presents improvements for function by space. This study performed a basin analysis with the consideration that Ogeum Park is a forest area and divided the site into a total of 8 areas according to how the sections of land are used. The function of wildlife habitat included an analysis of plant ecology(vegetation type, vegetation layer, potential vegetation), animal ecology(wild birds), and waterways. The function of leisure and use included an analysis of gradients, noise, paths, status of use, and status of facilities. The evaluation of the function of habitat sorted items into native vegetation, vegetation diversification, vegetation potential, animal diversification and potential of animal habitats. The results of grading the evaluation scores by space in the function of habitat showed that the Areas IV and VII, which were 90% of the maximum point, were Grade A, Areas II and V were Grade B at 70% and Area I and VI were Grade C at 50%. Areas III and VIII, which were not found to be beyond the standard of 50%, were excluded. The evaluation of the functions of leisure and use classified items into use potential, use preference, use concentration, use diversification and use convenience. The results of the graded evaluation scores by space in use function, showed areas V and VI as Grade A, or 90% of the maximum score. Grade B, 70% of the maximum score, was given to Areas I and VII. Grade C, 50% of the maximum score, included Areas II, IV and VIII. Area III, graded lower the standard of 50%, was excluded. The study evaluated areas according to a common standard, classified spaces by proper functions into ecological spaces, environmentally-friendly use spaces and use spaces according to the standard of spatial distribution on the basis of the above results through a synthesis of grades of habitat function, leisure function and use. This offers ideas for the improvement of wildlife habitat and environment-friendly use functions by space.

• Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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• v.52 no.4
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• pp.297-304
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• 2010

This study was conducted to investigate the effects of dietary quercetin on feed utilization, blood parameters, and meat quality of Korean native goats. Totally sixteen Korean native goats, 15 kg of average BW aged at 7 months, were employed in the experiment with eight replicates per treatment. One group was fed quercetin at 200 mg/kg level and the other group was fed none as control for 15 days. Dietary inclusion of quercetin did not affect feed intake, water intake, and the amount of urine and feces. Digestibilities of crude fat, NDF, and ADF for 5 days were not affected, but digestibility of crude protein was increased by the dietary inclusion of qurecetin (P<0.05). Quercetin increased rumen total VFA, propionate, and butyrate significantly (P<0.05). Acetate/propionate ratio (A/P) in the quercetin treated group was significantly higher than control. 2,2-Azinobis-(3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulfonic acid) ($ABTS^+$) reducing activity of the loin from goat fed quercetin was higher than that of control. Sensory analysis conducted at 24 hr post mortem revealed that color, texture, and overall acceptability of the loin from goat fed quercetin were significantly preferred to that of control. Feeding quercetin did not influence pH, water holding capacity, 1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) radical scavenging activity, TBARS value, and fatty acid composition of the loin significantly. In conclusion, the dietary inclusion of quercetin increased the digestibility of crude protein, rumen total VFA, propionate, butyrate, and A/P ratio. In addition the higher color and texture preference and ABTS+reducing activity of loin indicating some beneficial effect on enhancement of meat qualityin goats.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.68-98
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• 2010

This study was conducted to analyze the results of the implementation of next-generation growth engine program that was promoted across all government agencies for five years from 2004 as part of a range of initiatives aimed at expanding the nation's economic growth potential. The results were analyzed in this study using five indices: program purpose and design; strategic planning; program management; program results; and pan-governmental agency cooperation and coordination. The results of the study include the following. First, regarding program purpose and design, it was found that consistent leadership in the promotion of the programs was insufficient as the relevant program promotion systems and financial resources were dispersed among governmental agencies, even though the objectives and validity of the programs were recognized. Second, with regard to strategic planning, it was found that although the program objectives and technical development strategy had been established at the beginning of the program, they were biased toward the technical objectives and mainly implemented by the technology suppliers. Third, regarding program management, it was found that the responsibility for general administration, ranging from task planning to policy improvement, was given to the appointed program director but that the system of cooperation among the agencies was insufficient to carry out the relevant tasks. Fourth, regarding the results of the program, it was difficult to understand the results consistently as the economic objectives were not clearly presented, even though the technical objectives were achieved despite the short implementation period of the program. Fifth, with regard to pan-governmental agency cooperation and coordination, it was found that the coordination organization whose remit was to implement the program was established pursuant to the Basic Law on Science and Technology, but that no detailed regulations or guidelines on the operation of the organization were drawn up. To efficiently plan and execute future pan-governmental agency R&D programs that are similar to the next-generation new growth engine program, various requirements should be met, namely, 1) joint planning and consistent program design among governmental agencies, 2) clarification of the program objectives and budget allocation system, 3) establishment of a pan-governmental agency program operation and assessment system, 4) formulation of a strategy for linking R&D with standardization, and 5) enactment of pan-governmental agency joint operation rules.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.278-293
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• 1998

The purposes of this study were to develop Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point-based standardized recipe applicable to cook/chilled Broiled Spanish Mackerel in school foodservice operations and to establish reasonable shelf-life limits by assessing food quality during chilled storage period of 5 days. HACCP for the production of menu items was identified in simulation study. At each critical control point, time-temperature profile was recorded and microbiological analysis was done. Also chemical analyses and sensory evaluation were conducted for 5 days of chilled storage. The results of time-temperature measurement of Broiled Spanish Mackerel by each production phase showed satisfactory condition that met the standards. Broiled Spanish Mackerel showed excellent microbiological quality from raw ingredient phase ($TPC:2.58{\pm}0.12\;Log\;CFU/g$) to holding phase ($TPC:2.70{\pm}0.42\;Log\;CFU/g$). Coliform (0.84 Log MPN/g) and fecal coliform (0.84 Log MPN/g) were detected from marinating phase ($TPC:3.82{\pm}0.52\;Log\;CFU/g$). After heating, only few mesophiles were detected ($TPC:1.83{\pm}0.49\;Log\;CFU/g$). No psychrophiles, coliforms and fecal coliforms were detected. In the phases after rapid chilling, during chilled storage and after reheating and distribution, almost none of the above microbes were detected. Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes were not detected in all production phases. The pH immediately after cooking was 6.65 and then increased significantly to 6.81 on the third day of chilled storage (p<0.001). Acid value did not show significant changes while total volatile based nitrogen (TVBN) dramatitically increased during storage periods (p<0.01). In the result of sensory evaluation, general acceptability points had been rated high in the first day of storage, and then, the points were decreased significantly on the third day (p<0.05). General acceptability points ranged from 8.86 to 10.68. Accordingly, Broiled Spanish Mackerel is highly recommendable cook/chill system. Considering the DHSS standards for storage, the ideal shelf-life recommended for Broiled Spanish Mackerel is within 4 days excluding cooking day. For Broiled Spanish Mackerel, critical control points were purchasing and receiving of frozen Spanish Mackerel, heating, chilling, chilled storage, reheating and distribution.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.179-186
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• 2017

For more efficient and proactive safety control of imported food, new trend in U.S. is emerging, which assesses the food safety control systems of exporting countries using Systems Recognition Assessment Tool and helps ensure safety of imported foods. This study examines trends in development and application of assessmemnt tool and country assessment reports in U.S. where an active discussion on this issue is in progress. The expert interviews were also conducted. U.S. Systems Recognition Assessment Tool was developed by FDA to recognize the potential value in leveraging the expertise of foreign food safety systems and help ensure safety of imported food. The tool is comprised of ten standards and provides an objective framework for determining the robustness of trading partners' overall food safety systems. Using its own tool, the U.S. FDA conducted a preliminary assessment of the food safety control systems of New Zealand and Canada. According to the U.S.-New Zealand and the U.S.-Canada assessment reports, the overall structure of the systems was similar between the countries. In summarizing the opinions of experts, such a trend in National Food Safety Control System Assessment may be utilized in the sanitary assessment and the control of imported food border inspection frequency before importing food. It would contribute to more effective distribution of national budget and increased public trust. Additionally, international collaboration as well as securing of qualified experts and sufficient budget appear to be crucial to further increase the utility of National Food Safety Control Systems Assessment. In conclusion, firstly, it is critically important for the competent authority of South Korea to proactively respond to international trend in National Food Safety Control System Assessment by identifying the details of its background, assessment purpose, core assessment elements, and assessment procedures. Secondly, it is necessary to identify and complement the weaknesses of Korea's food safety control system by reviewing it with U.S. Systems Recognition Assessment Tool. Thirdly, by adapting the assessment results from imported countries' food safety control systems to the imported food inspection intensity, the resources previously used in inspecting the imported food from accredited countries can be redistributed to inspecting the imported food from unaccredited countries, and it would contribute to more efficient imported food safety control. Fourthly, the competent authority of South Korea should also consider developing its own assessment tool designed to reflect the unique characteristics of its food safety control system and international guidelines.

• The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.94-106
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• 2013

The proficiency testing for the residue laboratories of pesticide registration was conducted in order to improve the reliability and the ability for pesticide residue analysis. On October 2011 the testing was carried out using the soil collected and kept as the moistened state for five years, which is expected to very low residue levels of pesticides. The soil was fortified with chlorpyrifos, metolachlor and procymidone in a manner similar to prepare soil sample for indoor soil degradation test, and then sub-samples were prepared for the distribution to participants. Some of them were randomly selected for confirm of homogeneity and to ensure the stability of samples at room temperature. Samples were consisted of two soil treated as different levels, one of which was used to the assesment and another used to confirm. In addition, provide three standard solutions, respectively concentration of 10 mg/L, and untreated soil. Forty seven institutions submitted results. The medians of results were used as the assigned values for pesticide residues. Fitness for purpose standard deviation of proficiency test was calculated by applying 20% RSD as the coefficient of variation allowed in the soil residue test. Z-score was applied for evaluation of individual pesticides, and the average of the absolute value of the Z-score for the overall assessment of pesticides. Laboratories evaluated the absolute value of the Z-score less than 2 to fit the case of chlorpyrifos and procymidone were 44, metolachlor 40.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.43-57
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• 2012

To enhance the competitive advantage in a constantly changing business environment, an enterprise management must make the right decision in many business activities based on both internal and external information. Thus, providing accurate information plays a prominent role in management's decision making. Intuitively, historical data can provide a feasible estimate through the forecasting models. Therefore, if the service department can estimate the service quantity for the next period, the service department can then effectively control the inventory of service related resources such as human, parts, and other facilities. In addition, the production department can make load map for improving its product quality. Therefore, obtaining an accurate service forecast most likely appears to be critical to manufacturing companies. Numerous investigations addressing this problem have generally employed statistical methods, such as regression or autoregressive and moving average simulation. However, these methods are only efficient for data with are seasonal or cyclical. If the data are influenced by the special characteristics of product, they are not feasible. In our research, we propose a forecasting framework that predicts service demand of manufacturing organization by combining Case-based reasoning (CBR) and leveraging an unsupervised artificial neural network based clustering analysis (i.e., Self-Organizing Maps; SOM). We believe that this is one of the first attempts at applying unsupervised artificial neural network-based machine-learning techniques in the service forecasting domain. Our proposed approach has several appealing features : (1) We applied CBR and SOM in a new forecasting domain such as service demand forecasting. (2) We proposed our combined approach between CBR and SOM in order to overcome limitations of traditional statistical forecasting methods and We have developed a service forecasting tool based on the proposed approach using an unsupervised artificial neural network and Case-based reasoning. In this research, we conducted an empirical study on a real digital TV manufacturer (i.e., Company A). In addition, we have empirically evaluated the proposed approach and tool using real sales and service related data from digital TV manufacturer. In our empirical experiments, we intend to explore the performance of our proposed service forecasting framework when compared to the performances predicted by other two service forecasting methods; one is traditional CBR based forecasting model and the other is the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. We ran each service forecasting 144 times; each time, input data were randomly sampled for each service forecasting framework. To evaluate accuracy of forecasting results, we used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as primary performance measure in our experiments. We conducted one-way ANOVA test with the 144 measurements of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches. For example, the F-ratio of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches is 67.25 and the p-value is 0.000. This means that the difference between the MAPE of the three different service forecasting approaches is significant at the level of 0.000. Since there is a significant difference among the different service forecasting approaches, we conducted Tukey's HSD post hoc test to determine exactly which means of MAPE are significantly different from which other ones. In terms of MAPE, Tukey's HSD post hoc test grouped the three different service forecasting approaches into three different subsets in the following order: our proposed approach > traditional CBR-based service forecasting approach > the existing forecasting approach used by Company A. Consequently, our empirical experiments show that our proposed approach outperformed the traditional CBR based forecasting model and the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides some research background information such as summary of CBR and SOM. Section 3 presents a hybrid service forecasting framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Self-Organizing Maps, while the empirical evaluation results are summarized in Section 4. Conclusion and future research directions are finally discussed in Section 5.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.41 no.1 s.112
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• pp.106-120
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• 2006

Natural or man-made disaster has been expected to be one of the potential themes that can integrate human geography and physical geography. Typhoons like Rusa and Maemi caused great loss to insurance companies as well as public sectors. We have implemented a natural disaster management system for a private insurance company to produce better estimation of hazards from high wind as well as calculate vulnerability of damage. Climatic gauge sites and addresses of contract's objects were geo-coded and the pressure values along all the typhoon tracks were vectorized into line objects. National GIS topog raphic maps with scale of 1: 5,000 were updated into base maps and digital elevation model with 30 meter space and land cover maps were used for reflecting roughness of land to wind velocity. All the data are converted to grid coverage with $1km{\times}1km$. Vulnerability curve of Munich Re was ad opted, and preprocessor and postprocessor of wind velocity model was implemented. Overlapping the location of contracts on the grid value coverage can show the relative risk, with given scenario. The wind velocities calculated by the model were compared with observed value (average $R^2=0.68$). The calibration of wind speed models was done by dropping two climatic gauge data, which enhanced $R^2$ values. The comparison of calculated loss with actual historical loss of the insurance company showed both underestimation and overestimation. This system enables the company to have quantitative data for optimizing the re-insurance ratio, to have a plan to allocate enterprise resources and to upgrade the international creditability of the company. A flood model, storm surge model and flash flood model are being added, at last, combined disaster vulnerability will be calculated for a total disaster management system.