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Predicting Default of Construction Companies Using Bayesian Probabilistic Approach (베이지안 확률적 접근법을 이용한 건설업체 부도 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Sungmoon;Hwang, Jaeyeon;Kwon, Taewhan;Kim, Juhyung;Kim, Jaejun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2016
  • Insolvency of construction companies that play the role of main contractors can lead to clients' losses due to non-fulfillment of construction contracts, and it can have negative effects on the financial soundness of construction companies and suppliers. The construction industry has the cash flow financial characteristic of receiving a project and getting payment based on the progress of the construction. As such, insolvency during project progress can lead to financial losses, which is why the prediction of construction companies is so important. The prediction of insolvency of Korean construction companies are often made through the KMV model from the KMV (Kealhofer McQuown and Vasicek) Company developed in the U.S. during the early 90s, but this model is insufficient in predicting construction companies because it was developed based on credit risk assessment of general companies and banks. In addition, the predictive performance of KMV value's insolvency probability is continuously being questioned due to lack of number of analyzed companies and data. Therefore, in order to resolve such issues, the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach is to be combined with the existing insolvency predictive probability model. This is because if the Prior Probability of Bayesian statistics can be appropriately predicted, reliable Posterior Probability can be predicted through ensured conditionality on the evidence despite the lack of data. Thus, this study is to measure the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) by utilizing the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach with the existing insolvency predictive probability model and predict the accuracy by comparing the result with the EDF of the existing model.

The Improvement of Denitrofication by Using Sodium Salts in the SNCR Process (SNCR 공정에서 Sodium Salts 첨가제를 이용한 탈질반응 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Seung Moon;Park, Kwinam;Kwak, Tae-Heon;Park, Jin-Won;Makin, Sanjeev;Kim, Byung-Hwan
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.324-329
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    • 2005
  • The efficiency of reducing nitric oxide using urea combined with alkali salt additives is reported in this study. The inlet concentration of NO is 500 ppm with air flow rates of 3 and 5 L/min. Reduction of NO was studied from 650 to $1,050^{\circ}C$ with urea concentrations of 0.3 to 1 mol/L. The efficiency for the reduction of NO increased by 44% when urea is added alone. A further increase in efficiency was observed in the presence of NaOH as additive in fact, the efficiency was increased by more than 25% and 75% when 0.5 mol/L and 1 mol/L NaOH were added with the urea. The efficiency for the reduction of NO increased with all additives, but descended in the order NaOH, $Na_2CO_3$, $NaNO_3$, HCOONa, and CHCOONa. The maximum efficiency of NaOH and $Na_2NO_3$ are 74% and 73%, respectively. All these additives did not alter the comparatively wide operating temperature window for reducing NO. However, sodium compounds do not shift the maximum NO concentration towards lower temperatures when the NO removal activity enhances.

Advanced Oxidation Process for the Treatment of Terephthalic Acid Wastewater using UV, H2O2 and O3 : Organic and Color Removal Studies (UV, H2O2, 오존을 이용한 고급산화공정에서의 테레프탈산 제조공정 폐수 처리 : 유기물 및 색도제거 연구)

  • Kwon, Tae-Ouk;Park, Bo-Bae;Moon, Il-Shik
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.648-655
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    • 2007
  • UV/H_2O_2$, $O_3$, $O_3/H_2O_2$, $UV/H_2O_2/O_3$ processes were tested for the removal of COD and color from terephthalic acid wastewater. COD removal efficiencies were 10, 48, 56, 63% in the $UV/H_2O_2$, $O_3$, $O_3/H_2O_2$, $UV/H_2O_2/O_3$ process respectively. Color removal efficiency of $UV/H_2O_2$ process was 80% and $O_3$, $O_3/H_2O_2$, $UV/H_2O_2/O_3$ processes were almost more than 99%. Terephthalic acid, isophthalic acid and benzoic acid were completely destructed in terephthalic wastewater within 120 min by $UV/H_2O_2/O_3$ process and shows high COD and color removal efficiencies. The optimum concentration of $H_2O_2$ dosage was found to be 0.5 M, 25 mM and 5 mM for $UV/H_2O_2$, $O_3/H_2O_2$ and $UV/H_2O_2/O_3$ processes respectively, Organic destruction efficiency was enhanced and also reducing the consumption of $H_2O_2$ dosage by combining UV, $H_2O_2$ and $O_3$ process.

Dynamic Optimization of a Reactive Distillation Column Producing Methyl Acetate (메틸 아세테이트 생산을 위한 반응증류 공정의 동적 최적화)

  • Kim, Jiyong;Kim, Junghwan;Moon, Il
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.739-746
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    • 2008
  • The aim of this study is finding the optimal design parameters and the optimal operation variables of a reactive distillation column. Different from steady state optimization, dynamic optimization makes it possible considering operation ability as well as design problems at process design step. For performing dynamic optimization, dynamic simulation should be done first. If dynamic simulation is already finished, dynamic optimization can be performed with less effort than that of dynamic simulation.Reactive distillation systems involving reaction and separation in a single unit have the potential to reduce capital and operating costs, particularly when reaction have conversion constraint or when azeotropes exist making conventional separation difficult and expensive. This study here present work on the continuous distillation process, the homogeneous catalyzed esterification of methanol and acetic acid, the synthesis of methyl acetate. Based on an equilibrium stage model of a reactive distillation column a dynamic optimization problem was formulated and solved. And the results were verified by performing dynamic simulation and showing the variation of conversion and purity as the variation of the operation variables. As the results of dynamic optimization, this study found optimal feed ratio, reflux ratio and reboiler duty of this system. And as this study applied it to dynamic simulations the dynamic characteristics of a reactive distillation column are showed under optimal operating condition.

Fabrication of Chemical Sensors for the Detection of Acidic Gas using 1,3-bisdicyanovinylindane (1,3-bisdicyanovinylindane을 이용한 산성가스 감지용 화학 센서 제작)

  • Song, Hwan-Moon;Park, Young-Min;Son, Young-A;Lee, Chang-Soo
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.184-188
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    • 2008
  • This study presented simple and efficient fabrication of chemical sensors for the detection of acidic gas using 1,3-bisdicyanovinylindane as an indicator because it can be promising materials having property of the rapid color change according to the variation of pH. The dissociation of proton and dye in acidic condition as changing of ion pairs give rise to dramatically change the absorbance intensity of 1,3-bisdicyanovinylindane, which can be easily applied to the development of chemical sensors. In addition, indicator dyes having negatively charge in aqueous phase can be easily fabricated using layer-by-layer (LBL) methods by way of electrostatic interaction. For the proof of concept, we demonstrated the abrupt presentation of skeleton symbol on the chemical sensor, which could be resulted from the reaction of 1,3-bisdicyanovinylindane as background color with acidic gas. Thus, the rapid appearance of symbol will induce user's caution under the emergency condition. The presented chemical gas sensor using 1,3-bisdicyanovinylindane have strong advantages. First, the fabrication process of gas sensor was very simple and low-cost. Secondly, sensors reacted by acidic gas could be reused for several times. Finally, the chemical gas sensor would be environmentally friend, which can be a basic tool for the realization of eco-organic sensor device.

Protection and Detoxification Effects of Oriental Herb Extract Mixture on TCDD-Induced Oxidative Stress (TCDD로 유발된 Oxidative Stress에 대한 생약재 추출물의 방어 및 해독효과)

  • Hwang, Jin-Kook;Lee, Kyung-Jin;Yang, Hee-Jin;Park, Ki-Moon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.294-301
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    • 2008
  • This study was carried out to investigate the protective effects and detoxification of oriental herb extracts mixture (Saururus chinensis, Taraxacum platycarpum, Ulmus macrocarpa, Glycyrrhiza glabra, Rhynchosia nulubilis) on TCDD-induced oxidative stress. Thirty five male rats were divided into 5 groups: normal control group received saline; vehicle control group received DMSO and acetone; only TCDD-treated group received multiple intraperitoneal injection of TCDD ($100{\mu}g/kg$) and saline; post-treated group of OHEM (400 mg/kg/day) received oral administration for 5 weeks after TCDD treatment; and pre-treated group of OHEM (400 mg/kg/day) received oral administration for 6 weeks from 1 week before TCDD treatment. The elevated serum activities of alanine transaminase (AST), aspartate transaminase (ALT), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and atherorganic index due to TCDD were significantly decreased by the treatment of OHEM (p<0.05); the pre-treatment of OHEM was especially effective. Hydropic lesions and cytoplasmic vacuolizations in the liver of TCDD-treated rats were inhibited by the treatment of OHEM. Also, OHEM treatment reduced edemas in small intestine villus of TCDD-treated rats. These results suggest that OHEM from various oriental herb extracts might be a useful protective and detoxification agent against TCDD.

Studies on Solvent Extraction and Analytical Applications of Metal-Dithiocarbamate Complexes(Ⅰ). Extraction and Determination of Trace Bismuth, Cadmium and Indium in Sea Water (Dithiocarbamate 금속착물의 용매추출 및 분석적 응용(제 1 보). 해수중 흔적량 비스무트, 카드뮴, 인듐의 용매추출 및 정량)

  • Jeon, Moon Kyo;Choi, Jong Moon;Choi, Hee Seon;Kim, Young Sang
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.40 no.7
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    • pp.492-500
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    • 1996
  • The solvent extraction of trace Bi, Cd and In in seawater samples using ammonium pyrrolidine dithiocarbamate(APDC) as a complexing agent was studied. The pH of sample solution, the amount of APDC, the type of solvent and the shaking time were investigated together with back-extraction conditions. After the pH of 200 mL seawater was adjusted to 4.0 and 5.0 mL of 1% APDC was added, analytes were extracted with 10.0 mL of MIBK by shaking for 35 minutes. The organic phase seperated was washed with a 0.05 M NaOH 10.0 mL to remove HPDC. The analytes were stripped by the back-extraction of 5 minute shaking with 5 mL of 4 M HNO3 containing 150 ㎍/mL Pd(Ⅱ). Detection limits of Bi, Cd and In were 0.038, 0.0057 and 0.023 ng/mL, respectively. Both of Bi(Ⅲ) and In(Ⅲ) were not detected in two kinds of water samples of the East Sea and the contents of Cd(Ⅱ) were 0.018 and 0.016 ng/mL. The recoveries of over 90% showed that this procedure was applicable to the determination of such trace elements in seawater samples.

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Preconcentration and Determination of Trace Copper(II) and Lead(II) in Aqueous Solutions by Adsorption on Ca-Alginate Bead (알긴산칼슘 비드 상 흡착에 의한 흔적량 구리(II)와 납(II)의 동시 농축 및 정량)

  • Choi, Jong-Moon;Choi, Sun-Do
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.590-598
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    • 2004
  • The preconcentration and determination of trace Cu(II) and Pb(II) on calcium alginate beads in aqueous solution were studied. A calcium alginate beads were prepared by adding an alginic acid to sample solution contained Ca(II). Some following conditions were optimized: the pH of sample solution, amount of alginic acid, and stirring time for effective adsorption; the type and concentration of acid, and sonication time in an ultrasonic vibrator for the perfect de-sorption. A sample solution was prepared with Cu(II) and Pb(II) in DI water. And Ca(II) and ethanol was added into the sample solution. The pH of the final sample solution was controlled with buffer solution. The alginic acid were dispersed in the sample solution by a magnetic stirrer. This mixture was stored in room temperature for 30 min to form a calcium alginate. After the beads were filtered and washed on a membrane filter, the analytes were redissolved from the beads by an ultrasonic vibration of 10 minutes in 1.0M $HNO_3$ solution. The effect of diverse ions on the adsorption of analytes were studied. This procedure was applied for the analysis of two real samples. The recoveries in spiked samples were $90.4{\sim}104.3%$ for analytes.

Organic Precipitate Flotation of Trace Metallic Elements with Ammonium Pyrrolidinedithiocarbamate(Ⅰ). Determination of Bismuth, Cadmium, Cobalt and Lead in Water Samples by Coprecipitation-Flotation with Cu-pyrrolidinedithiocarbamate (Ammonium Pyrrolidinedithiocarbamate에 의한 극미량 금속원소의 유기침전 부선에 관한 연구(제1보) Cu-pyrrolidinedithiocarbamate 공침부선에 의한 물시료중 비스무트, 카드뮴, 코발트 및 납의 정량)

  • Jung, Yong June;Choi, Jong Moon;Choi, Hee Seon;Kim, Young Sang
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.40 no.12
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    • pp.724-732
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    • 1996
  • The organic precipitate flotation using Cu(II)-pyrrolidinedithiocarbamate complex as a coprecipitant was studied for the preconcentration and determination of trace Cd, Pb, Bi and Co in several water samples. Experimental conditions such as pH of solution, amounts of Cu(II) and ammonium pyrrolidinedithiocarbamate(APDC), stirring time, the type and amount of surfactant, etc. were optimized for the effective flotation of analytes. After 3.0 mL of 1,000 ${\mu}g/mL$ Cu(II) solution was added to 1.00 L water sample, the pH of the solution was adjusted to 2.5 with HNO3 solution. Trace amounts of analytes were coprecipitated by adding 2.0% APDC solution. And the precipitates were flotated onto the surface of solution with the aid of nitrogen gas and sodium lauryl sulfate. The floats were collected from mother liquor, and filtered through the micropore glass filter by suction. The precipitates were dissolved with 4 mL conc. HNO3, and then diluted to 25.00 mL with deionized water. The analytes were determined by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry. This flotation technique was applied to the analysis of some water samples, and the 90 to 120% of recoveries were obtained from the spiked samples, this procedure could be concluded to be simple and applicable for the trace element analysis in various kinds of water.

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Matrix Modification for Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometric Determination of Volatile Elements (Ⅱ). Determination of Trace Germanium by Electrothermal Atomization (휘발성 원소들의 원자흡수 분광분석을 위한 매트릭스 개선에 관한 연구(제2보). 전열 원자화에 의한 흔적량 게르마늄의 정량)

  • Choi, Ho Sung;Choi, Jong Moon;Kim, Young Sang
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 1996
  • A matrix modification was studied for the determination of trace germanium in mineral waters by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrophotometry (ET-AAS). For this, the type and quantity of modifier as well as the use of auxiliary modifier were investigated to realize the efficient modification. Germanium suffers from low sensitivity and poor reproducibility in ET-AAS determination because of the premature loss of germanium via volatile germanium monoxide formation when heated in the presence of carbon. Therefore, the addition of a matrix modifier is necessary to stablize the germanium, thermally and chemically. By the addition of palladium (10 ${\mu}g/mL)$ as a single modifier to the sample containing 500 ng/mL germanium, the charring temperature could be raised from 800 to $1000^{\circ}C$, and its absorbance was also increased, but the atomization temperature was not raised. In this case, the absorbance of germanium was not changed in the range of 10∼70 ${\mu}g/mL$ of palladium added. On the other hand, it was considered that the use of a mixed modifier could modifiy the matrix more effectively than with a single modifier. The best results were obtained by using 1% ammonium hydroxide as an auxiliary modifier together with 10 ${\mu}g/mL$ palladium. The charring temperature could be raised from 800 to $1100^{\circ}C$, without any change of the atomization temperature. With above optimum conditions, the trace amount of germanium in several mineral waters were determined by a calibration curve method, and good recoveries of more than 95% were also obtained in the samples in which a given amount of germanium was spiked. The detection limit of this method was about 6.9 ng/mL.

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